Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on January 14, 2016
China, Oil Show Peril of Faulty Assumptions
National home prices never go down.
Eurozone countries don’t default.
Saudi Arabia won’t let the price of oil crash.
China’s demand for raw materials is infinite.
These are some of the most cherished assumptions of investors and policy makers in the past decade, assumptions that have underpinned trillions of dollars of investment and debt. The U.S. housing bust and eurozone debt crisis demonstrated the havoc that comes when such assumptions are proven wrong.
Something similar may be happening now. A pronounced slowing in China’s industrial sector and a steep drop in oil prices have taken investors, business and policy makers by surprise. That doesn’t mean a crisis or recession are in the cards. But it could mean the U.S. economy and markets will take a bigger hit than the relative importance of either China or oil can explain.
Exports to China constitute less than 1% of U.S. annual gross domestic product. The U.S. is also a net importer of oil, so a fall in oil prices should be positive.
Yet, some economists estimate, in the fourth quarter of 2015 the U.S. economy grew only about 0.5% at an annual rate. Manufacturing may already be in recession: For two months the Institute for Supply Management’s index of factory purchasing managers has been below 50, the line between expansion and contraction.
At Tuesday’s close, the overall U.S. stock market is down nearly 10% from its high, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Russell 2000 index of small company shares, both of which are sensitive to economic momentum, are down 24% and 19%, respectively.
Blame this on how dramatically sentiment has changed.
China is the world’s biggest consumer of many commodities; through October 2015 it accounted for around half of the world’s consumption of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc, according to BCA Research, an investment advisory firm. As recently as 2012, the International Monetary Fund predicted China would grow an average of 8.6% a year from 2015 through 2017. That outlook led many suppliers to invest in added capacity, assuming China’s appetite would grow indefinitely.
What they didn’t appreciate was that China’s own leaders had concluded that that growth, driven by excessive borrowing, was unsustainable. China grew an estimated 7% last year, and the government’s informal target is just 6.5% this year, a figure many private economists consider too high. Moreover, the economy’s most commodity-hungry sectors—heavy industry and construction—have led the slowdown.
“Resource development spending was based on a linear extrapolation of demand from China, which has just proven far too optimistic,” says Jason Thomas, director of research at Carlyle Group, a private-equity firm.
ENLARGE The U.S. didn’t sell many commodities directly to China, but it sold things to countries that did. Their growth has slumped along with commodity prices, and capital has fled, driving down their currencies and pushing up the dollar, creating headwinds to U.S. exports.
The reversal of sentiment on oil has been even more dramatic. From 2011 through early 2014, Brent oil was almost always above $100 per barrel. “You had the illusion that it was sustainable because volatility was very low,” says Paul Cheng, an analyst at Barclays. “In early 2014, the general assumption by industry was that it can’t drop below $90 because Saudi Arabia would defend it.”
That fueled a boom in projects premised on oil between $80 to $100, and in loans and bond issues that valued the companies’ reserves at $80 to $100 per barrel. Mr. Thomas estimates that energy accounted for two-thirds of the rise in total U.S. industrial capacity between 2009 and 2014.
But in late 2014, Saudi Arabia stopped defending that price and ramped up production to claw back market share from the U.S. Shale production in the U.S. has been slow to decline but investment has collapsed.
Indeed, while U.S. auto production rose last year to meet consumer demand for gas-guzzling light trucks, Mr. Thomas notes that was more than offset by a collapse in orders for machined parts, precision tools, engines, transmissions, pumps and other “intermediate” goods for the global commodity production chain. Many companies earlier in the chain didn’t realize how exposed they were to the commodity bust.
The selloff has spilled into the financial system. Yields on bonds of energy companies have shot up and smaller banks are announcing significant reserves against lending to energy companies. The stress has spread to other borrowers: Yields on bonds issued by nonenergy companies have risen to 7.7% from 5.3% in mid-2014.
“Credit-market shocks of the sort triggered by the commodity-price collapse can prove quite damaging to broader economic conditions,” Mr. Thomas says.
How bad will it get? Because output per worker is much higher in manufacturing and mining than in services, the pullback in those sectors affects GDP more than employment. Indeed, overall job growth and demand for services so far remain buoyant.
China’s growth appears to have steadied. So absent even more contagion, the U.S. seems likely to escape a recession. Even so, this year will likely provide another object lesson in taking trends for granted.
72 Comments on "China, Oil Show Peril of Faulty Assumptions"
makati1 on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:01 am
WSJ … Bullshit in huge piles…lol
The US is in a depression, not a recession, and has been for a long time. Since 2008 at least. It is only going to get worse. Wait and see.
“Do the Chinese, Russians and Saudis have enough Treasury securities to dump and cause an interest rate spike? Are the Saudis still U.S. allies or do they view us now as pro Iran and they switch alliances? Will, and which treaties will be honored when push comes to shove? If I had to guess, whatever happens will certainly not be “petro dollar” friendly! … We have recently found out (not that we did not already know) through admission that many statistics have been wrong, and wrong for many years. What was reported and paraded as fantastic employment news on Friday turned out to really be a stinker as the truth turned out to be a whopping 11,000 job gain.”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/financial-meltdown-the-central-role-of-credit-the-global-margin-call-impasse-in-monetary-policy/5500515
One of many warnings…
Davy on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:15 am
This statement is pure hopium. “China’s growth appears to have steadied. So absent even more contagion, the U.S. seems likely to escape a recession”. The reality is we are in uncharted waters with China. There has never been a global economic period where a country like China grew so much. So much has been invested that it turns out was bad debt. So much of this bad debt has been extended and pretended. China has never allowed a financial crisis. They have always shifted any problem to a new sector.
Not unlike the Fed with its balance sheet and policy tools, China is at the end of the rope of options. Sooner or later reality must be faced even in economics. Even in national economic policies there are diminishing returns, limits, and real consequences. The Chinese banking system, property development markets, equity markets, and industrial sector is in disarray with a leadership in panic. They are making one wrong step after another.
China is an economic empire. There are many sectors still doing well enough. There are huge reserves of foreign exchange and other positives in China but there are limits to these also. China is engaged in a currency realignment that is a global game. Currencies games are zero sum gains for the global economy. They only work in the short term for the country involved. Eventually the rest of their trading peers adjust. Everyone ends up worse in these games.
This is about the end of high growth in China and by extension the emerging market nations and resource republics. The US is right smack in the middle of this being overly financialized and having a reserve currency that will be caught right in the middle of this global malaise.
We had a crisis in 08 from extremes (bubbles). We extended and pretended that with a good dose of moral hazard with manipulation and corruption into more extremes of financial asset and commodity bubbles. The commodity bubble has burst. The financial asset bubble has begun its deflation. China cannot be decoupled from by the US or the world. We see what has happened to the world. The US is the last beacon of hopium with an economy and markets on false life support that is beginning its fall.
Once the full effects of all the deflation, broken markets, and bubble deflation tide roles out all those US skeletons are going to show with US malinvestments in retail, unfunded liabilities (government), and greatly reduced 401K’s. We will have the opposite of the wealth effect.
China and the US run the world economically. They run it together just like a mechanical clock. The two are just two big systematically. They are connected at opposite poles both economically (importer/exporter) and geographically. Both drive the world economy and each other. In this case China is going to drive the US down hard. The US mainstream media good news team is discounting and dismissing this but this jawboning is increasingly irrelevant.
Red lines are being crossed right and left with central banks and governments without adequate tools. Just wait until the Fed has to do QE again. Then you will know our goose is cooked and we are on the short road to a status quo rebalance event. Eventually the reality of what is left of prosperity will be over. This will sink in systematically with consumerism ending as we know it. The connected and the rich will see their empires crumble. Many of the rich have as yet suffered. Many new rich have been created post 08. These were the bubble rich deflating now. This is ending as we speak. We are getting ever closer. This is a global complex process that will unfold over time in a mechanically self-organizing and painful way. This is now the end game.
markisha on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:58 am
I think the greedy and corrupted elites can prolong this casino for another 10 years if they stop insisting on the interest and payments . Anyhow they can get the money for free.
PRINT BABY PRINT
Davy on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 7:01 am
How poetic “bubbles on the way up [but] panic on the way down,”
“Fundamentals Don’t Matter Right Now, It’s Panic On The Way Down,” Trader Warns”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/fundamentals-dont-matter-right-now-its-panic-way-down-trader-warns
“Yesterday’s selloff across almost all assets provides the confirmation that’s needed for investors to heed the many medium-term bearish technical signals triggered last week. It’s time for capital preservation.”
“Even if an oversupply of oil provided the trigger for yesterday’s capitulation, in a broader sense fundamentals don’t matter right now. That’s frequently the case in the short term (bubbles on the way up; panic on the way down), even if they always matter in the long-term.”
“We’re experiencing wealth-destruction due to asset-price dynamics alone. The negative moves will stop only when excess leverage is trimmed and not just when prices return to “fair value.””
“Wheel out the doom-mongers for their time in the sun.”
Davy on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 7:15 am
Bricophiles take note on reality please adjust your agenda accordingly.
“On Tuesday, we weren’t surprised to learn that some banks in Shanghai and Beijing were apparently running short of physical dollar bills.”
“How China Almost Ran Out Of Physical Dollars”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/how-china-almost-ran-out-physical-dollars
“In fact, no one even knows if the PBoC has a target at all or if China is simply flying by the seat of its pants managing the glidepath on an ad hoc, daily basis depending on how wide the onshore/offshore spread is (a proxy for the pressure on the currency).”
“One thing seems certain though: a much bigger “adjustment” will be necessary if China hopes to stabilize its economy by propping up exports. As Deutsche Bank noted last week, if global currencies continue to slide against the dollar, the yuan will need to fall if China hopes to keep its new trade-weighted RMB index from rising.”
Davy on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 7:21 am
Last one this morning. I made my point.
“A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Behind Market Gyrations”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/a-towering-chinese-debt-mountain-looms-behind-market-gyrations
“Lost in all the Chinese stock and currency market gyrations, policy missteps and mixed data is this economic reality: The government is constrained by a credit bubble that has ballooned to $28 trillion in an economy growing at its slowest pace in 25 years.”
“Against that backdrop, Chinese officialdom faces the high-wire act of trying to keep the economy growing rapidly enough to repay past obligations, without resorting to a fresh pick-up in debt to fund more stimulus. It was China’s reliance on credit-fueled growth in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis that resulted in one of the biggest debt expansions in recent history, and today’s hangover.”
“China is nowhere close to reining in its debt problems,” said Charlene Chu, the former Fitch Ratings Ltd. analyst known for her warnings over China’s debt risks and now a partner of Autonomous Research Asia Ltd. “It is one of the key factors weighing on GDP growth and one of the reasons why foreign investors are so concerned about China’s trajectory.”
twocats on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 11:07 am
http://www.globalresearch.ca/financial-meltdown-the-central-role-of-credit-the-global-margin-call-impasse-in-monetary-policy/5500515
that was a good article makati1.
“I think the greedy and corrupted elites can prolong this casino for another 10 years if they stop insisting on the interest and payments . Anyhow they can get the money for free. PRINT BABY PRINT” [markisha]
that’s a good question markisha, QE3 ended in Fall 2014, and then there was the rate hike. most of the rest of the world has kept printing (ECB, BOJ). If the US hops back on the QE train will it prevent the Margin Call that is happening right now. I think probably not. Why? Because the QE had stopped juicing the real economy and was only helping to prop up asset inflation (see Davy posts). They might fire up QE4, it would certainly help the markets, and then they could just lie about the economy perhaps. They could also just directly monetize people by sending checks to everyone (I think Finland recently considered this). We would be more like Europe and I don’t think the Republicans would go for it. Anyway, its an interesting question.
twocats on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 11:12 am
“stop insisting on the interest and payments” [markisha]
this one specific phrase is meaningless. the majority of people and institutions who have money are never going to willingly lend money without some sort of reward and the rise in HY Bonds is a direct outgrowth of the increasing perceived risk in the market. We may be in ZIRP/NIRP but that’s only for savers, the borrowers (you, me, and energy companies) we pay 10% and beyond.
joe on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 11:29 am
One interesting aspect is the way currencies will react and what central banks will do. One thing we know that they can’t do is cut rates, another thing we know is that wages won’t rise to stimulate demand, so that leaves government debt and government spending. Since tax cuts will make the rich richer, then government spending is likely to have limited impact. Personal debt will rise in the low rate world, it’s probably the answer to maintain demand, which we know is low already. China already sees it’s capital markets as vital to the balance sheets of its national companies, the direct intervention to prevent economic doctors calling this patient medically dead, only prolongs the markets suffering. We have literally come to the lenders of last resort, structurally. The next economic epoch, therefore, is poised to impose itself eventually.
twocats on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 12:26 pm
One big problem for the “we just need a newer and bigger and better bubble” crowd is: what’s your advice for the next bubble? Housing – done. Biotech – done. Techtech – done. financial instruments – done. infrastructure – boring. I mean, we need a tulip.
markisha on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 2:45 pm
The so called elites, must understand if they don’t stop pushing for payments we are all screwed . They have two options start a mega war or stop pushing for more money, even the printing won’t save the system
Boat on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 4:41 pm
twocats,
We may be in ZIRP/NIRP but that’s only for savers, the borrowers (you, me, and energy companies) we pay 10% and beyond.
Where do you live. In the states you can get zero interest loans for cars and trucks. You can buy housing at 4%. In fact in Houston it is cheaper to buy a house than to rent one. This is one reason there hasn’t been a crash. Home owners have much more cash at hand than when interest rates were high. When loans are cheap and fuel is cheap a nice high mph efficient care is a great hedge for future high prices.
Apneaman on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 5:23 pm
Boat floats on a subprime ocean of hopium.
Bloomer on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:02 pm
All the pundits wanted the Fed to start “normalizing” interest rate and hence the lift off. Yet, “the U.S. economy grew only about 0.5% at an annual rate”. This is not the time to raise interest rates and take a hawkish view going forward. Likely scenario for this sluggish economy, another round of QE. Someone needs to tell Corporate America that the working masses are broke, up to their eyeballs in debt. You can only squeeze them so hard.
GregT on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:27 pm
Boat is setting himself up for an epic fail. Even with all of the warning bells going off all around him, he still can’t quite figure things out.
Not the sharpest tool in the shed.
Boat on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:35 pm
GregT,
As mentioned many times before if there is indeed a world collapse the land you own and till isn’t worth the paper at the court house. I guess Canadian doomer brain syndrome does not allow you to grasp that.
makati1 on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 6:51 pm
Boat: “Hey! Why is my drink sliding down the bar top?
Bartender: “Maybe because the Titanic is sinking.”
Boat: “Gotta be something else. They said it was unsinkable. Give me another Martini”
Boat on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 7:14 pm
mak.The US is in a depression, not a recession, and has been for a long time. Since 2008 at least. It is only going to get worse. Wait and see.
Lol Mak, is it possible to get any crazier? Get you a PHD like Short and work towards another level.
GregT on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 7:23 pm
“Get you a PHD like Short and work towards another level.”
‘Get you’ a grade 5 Boat, before calling out others that are vastly more intelligent than you could possibly ever dream of being.
Apneaman on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 7:39 pm
Boat, things have never been better. Nothing has changed at all. Same as it’s always been. La la la I’m not listening.
There Are More Payday Lenders in U.S. Than McDonald’s
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/there-are-more-payday-lenders-u-s-mcdonalds-n255156
Hunger, homelessness on the rise in major US cities, study finds
Officials in surveyed cities attribute rising number living on street to low wages and lack of affordable housing
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/22/hunger-homelessness-on-the-rise-in-22-us-cities.html
Hunger in America: 1 in 7 rely on food banks
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/17/hunger-study-food/14195585/
Don’t for get the increase in suicides and addictions. They’re exactly the same too.
BC on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 8:46 pm
Internalize this, comrades:
China’s potential real GDP per capita is no faster than that of the US, Japan, and EZ since 2007-08, i.e., ~0%.
China has reached the so-called “middle-income trap” that the US encountered in 1930 with the 2015$US price of oil at $10-$15, and Japan did in the late 1960s at a 2015US$ price of oil at $20-$25.
China does not have the sufficient domestic supplies of liquid fossil fuels to permit growth of real GDP per capita hereafter, which, not coincidentally, is where Japan was prior to the imperial Japanese invasion and occupation of Manchuria and eventually mainland China and the onset of WW II in the Pacific in the early to late 1930s.
Same as it ever was . . .
makati1 on Thu, 14th Jan 2016 9:56 pm
Boat, denial doe not change the facts.
The US is a failed state and is currently in the 3rd world. It has more unemployed than the entire population of the Philippines (100 million). More people on welfare and food stamps than the population of the UK(65 million). A failing education system. Failing infrastructure. Failing economy. Negative GDP. And on and on…
You are either still in grade school or dropped out at the 5th grade level when you were old enough to quit and those little chairs started to pinch. LOL
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 1:24 am
So much for the “Bric” dreaming complete with a new reserve currency. I thought the dollar was going to be crushed. I said all along the dollar will be crushed when globalism is crushed. Asia is never going to become a new “super”power center. This global world will end a multipolar world of declining powers with a spiral of decay and dysfunction. China is clearly done as a rising power. It will likely stay perched in its position because of the brittle systematic construction of the global system as the worlds manufacturer but it will likely not become the new silk road.
This spells disaster for Putin’s strategy of decouple from the west. That has also gone quiet lately as well as the Syrian quagmire with no end in site. Gone are the Bric parties Putin hosted with smiles and grasped hands. Maybe those with an agenda will acknowledge what I said all along we are going down as peers in an interconnected unreformable global system at limits of growth and diminishing returns to all efforts economic and social. This is the end game of modern man.
“I Don’t Have Faith Anymore”: Frustrated Chinese Shun Stocks For Safety Of Dollars, Gold”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-14/i-dont-have-faith-stock-market-anymore-frustrated-chinese-shun-stocks-safety-dollars
“30% of China’s newly-minted day traders had an elementary education or less. 6% of the country’s new “investor” class were illiterate. Not only were millions of semi-literate Chinese starting to trade without being able to read let alone conduct fundamental analysis, they were buying into a market gone parabolic: Worse still, they were buying on margin – heavily.”
“Beijing had managed to give legions of day trading Chinese the idea that stocks always went up. That encouraged many people to plow their life savings into the market on margin. When the unwind began – starting with the half dozen or so backdoor margin lending channels that helped to pump an extra CNY1.5 trillion into stocks – many Chinese were confronted with the possibility that they may lose everything.”
“In short, China faced the prospect that the meltdown could trigger social unrest, which partly explains why Beijing scrambled to funnel nearly CNY2 trillion propping up the market.”
“Many, like 22-year old Zhou Junan who says he “had planned to sell when indexes got a little bit higher,” but missed the top. “I don’t have faith in the stock market any more. I think it’s better to buy dollars,” he says, underscoring the extent to which everyday Chinese are rushing to exchange RMB for USD in the new year.”
“In any event, the message is clear: the disaffection with stocks in China is rampant which means every rip will be sold as the retail investors which comprise more than three quarters of the market scramble to salvage what’s left of their money. Once they’ve cashed out of equities they’ll promptly exchange their yuan for dollars as the capital flight which China so desperately needs to contain continues unabated.”
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 1:36 am
We know the bad news out of China with their stock markets, maybe soon corporate bond markets, and currency devaluation but here is the really grim longer term news:
“Could China’s Housing Bubble Bring Down The Global Economy?”
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2016/01/could-chinas-housing-bubble-bring-down.html
“I’ve just completed a comprehensive review of China’s housing market, and now realize it’s much worse than the consensus understands.”
“The problem isn’t a banking crisis; it’s a loss of household wealth, the reversal of the wealth effect and the decimation of local government budgets and the construction sector.”
“China is uniquely dependent on housing and real estate development. This makes it uniquely vulnerable to any slowdown in construction and sales of new housing.”
“Of even greater concern, local governments in China depend on land development sales for roughly 2/3 of their revenues. (These are not fee simple sales of land, but the sale of leasehold rights, as all land in China is owned by the state.) There is no substitute source of revenue waiting in the wings should land sales and housing development grind to a halt. Local governments will lose 2/3 of their operating revenues, and there is no other source they can tap to replace this lost revenue.”
“Much has been made of the $3+ trillion losses households have suffered as China’s stock market bubble collapsed. But given the relatively insignificant role financial assets play in household wealth, these losses are modest compared to the far larger loss of household wealth that will occur as housing deflates from bubble heights.”
“estimated 65 million empty flats held as investments by the middle and upper classes in China”
“the extreme concentration of wealth that goes into every purchase of a small flat by households that really can’t afford the cost: the entire extended family’s wealth is often poured into the flat, and money borrowed from friends and relatives or even loan sharks.”
“The other problem few Western analysts consider is the impaired nature of much of China’s housing stock. Millions of units constructed in the early 2000s were hastily built and are now degraded. Newer buildings are not maintained, either, and there is a strong cultural preference for new homes, not existing units.”
“China’s stated intent is to move from a fixed-investment/export dependent economy to a consumer economy. But if we consider what happens when housing slows or even grinds to a halt, we realize the impact on incomes, wealth and consumption will be extraordinarily negative, not just for China but for every nation that sells China vehicles and other consumer goods.”
Apneaman on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 1:59 am
So the Chinese fucked up because they are uneducated? Well then what’s America’s excuse? Must be pure fucking stupidity since y’all spent trillions of dollars “educating” everyone in the last 100 years. I bet half the people in the US can’t even name the vice president. Fat, stupid, lazy, greedy and corrupt. Then there’s that other bitching point how the Chinese never learned the lesson about industrializing too fast and up poisoning the land, air and water.
Yeah, you’re peers with them alright. Knowingly poisoning and killing babies for profit even though you have been the richest country in the history of the world for a century. Never enough for the educated American.
Following Flint Tragedy, Republican Congress Votes to Block Clean Water Bill
“Flint has recently had a fatal outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease in Flint, which has killed 10 and sickened 87, which came on top of the revelations that the water has been poisoned with lead for years and that some state officials ignored evidence for months.”
http://usuncut.com/class-war/republicans-block-clean-water-legislation-following-flint-tragedy/
The Disgusting Water In Flint Might Be Causing Another Deadly Disease Now
In addition to lead poisoning in children, residents are now dying from another deadly disease.
http://www.mtv.com/news/2728856/tainted-water-flint-lead-legionnaires-dead/
China is a complete fucking basket case. That’s what happens when you try and emulate the Americans. You schooled them well in the ways of merican capitalism. Educated them and the rest in the wonders of globalization. America’s gift to the world. Parting gift. Maybe the chinese will get all depressed and start shooting each other everyday and become tattooed heroin and meth addicts, enmass and start eating their own guns as a solution? That’s what educated people do apparently.
Apneaman on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 2:03 am
SoCalGas understated health risk of massive natural gas leak, data shows
California gas company’s own samples from Porter Ranch community contained at least twice the amount of benzene that air regulators consider normal
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/14/la-natural-gas-leak-methane-benzene-health-risks-california-gas
Dredd on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 4:56 am
China has 6 of the top 10 seaports in the world (Proxymetry3- 3).
makati1 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 5:02 am
Dredd, be careful in defending China. Some on here are so Sinophobic, they don’t even read the labels on the stuff they buy because they are afraid that they will find that they were made in China.
The Chinese not only has the fastest super computer in the world (the US is not even close), they also developed a ‘carrier killer’ missile that the US navy is scared shitless of. LOL
markisha on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 6:24 am
what does it mean? ZIRP/NIRP
JuanP on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 7:01 am
Markisha, ZIRP means Zero Interest Rate Policy. NIRP means Negative Interest Rate policy. When I have doubts like that I usually look them up on Google.
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 7:20 am
The sorry anti-Americans can’t take the truth these days. The US was supposed to crash and burn along with the dollar. The Russian’s and Chinese were going burry them. The Brics with Putin’s leadership transform the world. Syria and the Mideast would be cleaned up by the Russians and Iranians. The place would be made good and pure per the values of a mafia lead government and Religious theocracy. Power both military and economic was going to shift to Asia. I saw through all that “shyt”. They invested a lot of message in that story and it is a dud, plain and simple. These days they are really touchy about anything resembling balance. I LOVE IRRITATING EXTREMSIT ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY “BOW UP” AND MAKE THEMSELVES LOOK LIKE IDIOTS. Instead of “bowing up” grow up pussies.
The anti-Americans get all hot and bothered if their finely crafted and pressured message is upset by reality. They are all about links and facts just short on their composition. They like to leave out the inconvenient. They are all about pointing out their US-phobias with resentment and hate but when a measure of balance is introduced into the real situation…OOH SHYT…they have a major hemorrhoid. That my friends is the definition of extremism and that my friends is what is destroying the world.
If you have not noticed your talk is failing hilariously like the Baghdad Bob as the tanks were rolling in. You guys want only one side of the global bad news. A few of you dominate the comments which is clearly causing a bias board message. There is no need for me to comment and link on the US issues you agenda panderers got that covered to the extreme. I don’t need to earn my badge from the anti-American brigade. Wake up there is more to this world than 300Mil people living between NY-LA. I am not bitching about your mother lode of dirty laundry on the US. I am rightfully introducing balance. God forbid, the word balance is a board breaker for a couple here. If I mention balance, well, I am called a Fox news pervert. Why do you think extremist get so upset about balance, it is because it ruins the extreme in their message.
JuanP on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 7:31 am
There goes Davy, the board’s delusional American exceptionalist bully living in denial attacking and insulting other board members once more. In a few minutes he will start whining about how we all gang up on him for no good reason. The one percenter prick just won’t give it a rest.
You come across as a completely deranged lunatic, Davy!
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 7:57 am
Juan, say something instead of being a little barking dog. You come out to defend your bigger dog buddies but then get a good kick then you whimper with your tail between your legs back to your little dog house. Grow up and learn how to give constructive criticism instead of labels. The goon squad will be at their finest soon. Where is Greg the T and the Ape Turd, Sleeping no doubt. Greg will soon chime in with the usual labels but nothing to say and the Turd with extended redundant worn out links and comments. Folks I am just responding to the usual goon squad attacks. They are trying to muzzle a balanced board message. They can’t stand diversity because they are extremists.
Who is the 1%’er prick Juan? I live on a goat farm in the Ozarks of Missouri. You live in a high rise in Miami Beach. You kite board and play in the Biscayne Bay. I do real work for a living. Your family likely sends you a monthly stipes to keep you living in Miami so you don’t come back Uruguay. BTW, what happened to your elaborate plans for your doomsted there? I am talking a villa folks. Juan has a wealthy family at home and bitches about mine. Juan, you are the one in the world of high cost Miami real estate. You go to New Year’s parties with cAviar and Champaign. You are the one “Boasting” about how you chastised a friend for inviting you to a party Trump was at. I got a name for people like you Juan and it is HIPOCRIT looser.
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 8:06 am
I believe in throwing dogs a bone.
“Watch a Group of “Freedom Kids” Perform a Horrifying Song at a Donald Trump Rally”
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2016/01/freedom-girls-donald-trump-rally
makati1 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 8:43 am
Blood all over the market floor:
9:40 AM EST.
STI Index
2630.76 -13.81 -0.522
HANG SENG INDEX
19520.77 -296.641 -1.497
Dow Jones Industrial Average
16019.82 -359.229 -2.193
NASDAQ Composite
4497.21 -117.793 -2.552
Limbo lower now.
How low can you go?
LMAO
JuanP on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 8:54 am
Davy, I no longer read your comments so I have no idea what BS you wrote above. I just glance at your delirious rants for confirmation that I should continue to ignore you. After reading your first phrase on the comment above, I skipped the rest. You are talking to yourself, prick. Your comments are no longer worth reading and you are not worth talking to, IMHO.
You are just a seriously mentally ill individual living in denial of every truth you find inconvenient. I don’t waste time on people like you. Talking to delusional fools is a complete waste of time. You have proven time and again that you can’t face the truth when it hurts you. That is my definition of a coward. When I write comments like this one, they are written for the other board members, so that they may understand my position regarding your bullying.
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 8:57 am
A bellwether showing stress:
“WalMart To Fire 16,000 As It Closes 269 Stores Globally”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-15/walmart-fire-16000-it-closes-269-stores-globally
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:07 am
Well, Haun, it obviously caused you some concern hence the ABOVE blather. You are a little dog who barks at big dog’s fights and gets kicked. Eventually you have to go offline and regroup because of your unstable mental state. You know severe depression and suicidal thoughts. I wonder sometimes why you live in a high rise with that condition. Here is the deal asswipe. If you stay out of other people’s business you won’t get bitch slapped. Apr Turd and the Makster attacked me this morning I responded. IMA, I responded without direct personal attacks unlike you. I am not a pussy like you. I actually respond to personal attacks unlike you who jumps into someone else’s fights with personal attacks. Grow up Haun or you are going to end up in an institution.
GregT on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:34 am
“The anti-Americans get all hot and bothered if their finely crafted and pressured message is upset by reality.”
“They are all about pointing out their US-phobias with resentment and hate but when a measure of balance is introduced into the real situation…OOH SHYT…they have a major hemorrhoid.”
“I LOVE IRRITATING EXTREMSIT ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY “BOW UP” AND MAKE THEMSELVES LOOK LIKE IDIOTS.”
Sounds like somebody’s blown a gasket this morning.
makati1 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:40 am
GregT, maybe even his goats are avoiding him. LOL
GregT on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:40 am
You were doing much better for a couple of days at least Davy. A good attempt, but more work is definitely needed.
Try removing the red white and blue blinders, and then take a few really deep breaths.
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:40 am
Just practicing the familiar tactics of the goon squad Greg. As for the goons you are are like Haun big on labels and attacks short on message. Go out and wash your RV or your fishing boat.
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:44 am
Mak, at least I don’t have to kiss my Filipino boyfriends ass so I have a place to stay. BTW, goats are always happy to see me and so are the cows.
GregT on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:53 am
“Go out and wash your RV or your fishing boat.”
They’re both covered in snow Davy. Reading back on all the above comments, I’m having trouble finding exactly which comment it was that flipped the angry switch Davy, and who the hell is Huan?
markisha on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:54 am
its easiest like this thank you juan
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 9:58 am
Greg, do something useful then or say something constructive.
GregT on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 10:04 am
“do something useful then or say something constructive.”
So are you saying that anger management isn’t constructive?
Davy on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 10:14 am
Greg, you need some kind of behavioral help now that you mention it. Yea, I see the anger when you get into repetitive name calling and labeling. The best example is your constant boring reparative attacks on Boat.
You must have cabin fever or something maybe mixed with midlife crisis. It appears early retirement is not working well for you. Do something of use instead of name calling. Go volunteer for the senior citizens. Be a good citizen. You are always a big talker maybe practicing what you preach would be good for you.
Kenz300 on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 10:33 am
Alternative energy sources like wind and solar are the future…….fossil fuels are the past………
China to Increase Wind, Solar Power Capacity by 21 Percent in 2016 –
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/01/china-to-increase-wind-solar-power-capacity-by-21-percent-in-2016.html
GregT on Fri, 15th Jan 2016 10:34 am
“The best example is your constant boring reparative attacks on Boat.”
My apologies Davy, Boat is obviously the shining beacon of truth and intelligence on these forums. More of us should be supportive of his words. Thousands of daily lurkers on these forums deserve nothing less.