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Page added on October 21, 2020

Big Oil’s Godzillas are keeping the pipe dream alive

As big western oil giants like BP and Shell agonise over how to reinvent themselves in the face of a warming climate, some of the world’s other top producers are taking a very different approach.

At BP’s headquarters in London, chief executive Bernard Looney is mapping out plans to cut oil and gas production over the coming decade.

Three thousand miles away in the sweltering Saudi oil capital of Dhahran, the boss of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant, is planning to ramp up production to meet demand when pandemic restrictions ease – and takes a far more relaxed view.

“We expect oil demand growth to continue in the long term, driven by rising populations and economic growth,” the company said recently.

“Speculation about an imminent peak in oil demand is simply not consistent with the realities of oil consumption.”

It’s a similar story in Moscow, where Russia’s state oil producer Rosneft has warned BP and Shell their failure to invest in new crude production risks creating an “existential crisis” for oil supplies that could force up prices.

For Big Oil, this is a big deal.

After all, Saudi Aramco and Rosneft are far bigger global producers which put together pump over 17m barrels of oil and gas per day, dwarfing the 7.7m daily barrels in combined global output of BP and Shell.

It’s a question that goes to the heart of the problem the oil industry confronts in facing up to the climate threat. Western firms may be taking big steps to curb emissions from their own operations, and invest in renewable energy like wind and solar.

But how much will it matter if the slack is simply taken up by industry rivals with a different agenda?

More than half of global oil and gas production and a larger share of global reserves are controlled by state-owned so-called National Oil Companies (NOCs) like Aramco, Venezuela’s PDVSA and Russia’s Rosneft, which is 19pc owned by BP and excluded from BP’s own climate goals.

Although less exposed to investor pressure which has driven change, these NOCs have a huge role to play in tackling carbon emissions. But they are also more at risk in the transition to lower carbon sources of fuel, given their owners’ dependence on oil to fill state coffers.

“The stakes are particularly high for national oil companies charged with the stewardship of countries’ hydrocarbon resources,” says the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“Some are high performing, but many are poorly positioned to adapt.”

It’s not oil over yet

In total, the NOCs churn out about 85m barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day, from $3 trillion [£2.3 trillion] worth of assets such as Rosneft’s 676-square mile Samotlor field in western Siberia, and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (Adnoc) Upper Zakum oilfield in the Persian Gulf. That is more than half, 55pc, of the world’s production.

Experts believe their share of global production could increase if others scale back in line with climate goals or due to profitability, and NOCs ramp up production to meet demand and maximise revenues while they can.

Predictions on global oil demand vary, but S&P Global Platts predicts it will peak at 120m barrels per day in 2040, before slipping to 116.5m in 2050. The International Energy Agency also predicts an increase to 104.1m in 2040, up from 97.9m in 2019.

Under-investment from some companies “places the onus on other people to develop the oil reserves that are definitively going to be needed in the scenarios of those people who think peak oil is still well ahead of us”, Mike Muller, head of energy trading giant Vitol’s Asia division, recently said.

The prospect of NOCs stepping in to plug the supply gap has been used by some executives to push back on pressure from climate activists to curb production.

“If we don’t produce someone else will. Maybe not so efficiently, in terms of investment and CO2 emissions,” Eni’s chief executive Claudio Descalzi said last November.

Even NOCs are cutting carbon footprints

The record of NOCs on carbon emissions varies greatly and is often difficult to judge given less stringent disclosures, despite commitments to cut carbon emissions under the 2015 Paris climate accords.

With its vast, shallow reserves, Saudi Arabia is believed to have the lowest carbon intensity production, according to the IEA. Its roughly 60kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for each barrel – including extraction, flaring, methane, refining and transport – compares to about 240kg for Venezuela. The global average is 95kg.

Russia’s Gazprom says it cut emissions from production by 3.5m tons in 2019, to a total 236m tons. The company argues it makes a “meaningful contribution” to a lower carbon world by virtue of its focus on gas, which is cleaner burning than oil and coal.

Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, meanwhile, has set out plans to reduce its carbon intensity by 25pc by 2030, and plant 10m mangrove seedlings by the end of 2022, to absorb carbon dioxide.

There are calls for greater efforts and greater transparency across the industry, however.

“Even if there is progress on the international oil company front there is a risk that NOCS could undermine that if they don’t develop strong and serious plans on decarbonisation,” says Patrick Heller, from the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).

Just as pressing is the question facing oil-dependent governments over how to respond to global efforts to shift to lower carbon energy sources.

Avoiding extinction

Experts warn that governments risk tying up their economies in oil and gas assets which might turn out to be unprofitable under stricter efforts to cut carbon emissions. Producing all current proven reserves would generate emissions far beyond any level that could keep global warming below an acceptable 2C.

The picture is complex with production costs varying widely between countries, and oil price forecasts highly uncertain.

Forecasts range from $20 to $100 per barrel in coming decades, depending on global climate policies and market responses.

NOCs with the resources and willingness to be able to act are turning their attention to carbon capture and storage as well as hydrogen, as both increase the viability of their core oil and gas products in a world trying to cut carbon emissions.

Amin Al-Nasser, chief executive of Aramco, has highlighted the company’s interest in hydrogen made from natural gas, saying it is “putting a lot of effort into technologies that will help reduce its costs,” as well as carbon capture systems which will be needed to capture emissions from the production.

Jon Clark, who leads on oil and gas strategy and transactions in Europe and the Middle East for EY, says: “The question that the NOCs are facing is less about plugging an immediate gap in finances, but more about where to generate attractive profits and cash flows into the future, which plays into the energy transition.

“The strategic question is more, what do we do with production, how do we make it best connected to future demand, delivered with the lowest carbon footprint, and at the same time how do we shift our domestic energy mix and portfolio.”

Norwegian majority state-owned producer Equinor has successfully diversified into offshore wind, and is now a pioneer in floating wind farms.

Some governments are setting up separate entities to explore renewable development, rather than relying on NOCs.

Masdar, owned by the Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company, says it has invested in renewable energy projects worth more than $14.3bn around the world, developing 5GW of capacity.

Those include two projects in Scotland – the 30MW Hywind offshore floating wind farm operated by Equinor, and a 1.3MwH battery storing excess electricity generated from the farm.

It is also involved in the London Array off the Kent coast, and Dudgeon Offshore off Norfolk.

Meanwhile, having made progress with listed oil and gas groups, investors are increasing pressure on NOCs.

In common with the rest industry, they may find it increasingly hard to ignore the push to lower carbon

Telegraph

60 Comments on "Big Oil’s Godzillas are keeping the pipe dream alive"

makati1 on Wed, 21st Oct 2020 4:11 pm

So, they are producing electric with some “renewables”, but then, electric is a very small percentage of TOTAL energy used annually. Less than 4%, although WIKI adds 7% for hydro power, neither of which are totally “renewable” as the dams and turbines, panels, windmills (plus batteries) need maintenance and replacement that cannot be done without FFs.

DT on Wed, 21st Oct 2020 10:33 pm

At a recent church discussion group the topic was put on about “renewable” energy. No one in the group wanted to hear about everything you mention Mak. I pointed out also that the idea of a transition was an illusion due to the fact that all things industrial at human scale including so called “renewable energy” are a recipe for planetary destruction as fast if not faster than burning FF in the process. I was then summarily written off as a doom and gloom nihilist.

Malcolm J Wardlaw on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 1:49 am

The Fatted Masses just are not going to face reality. They will continue to live in their comfortable bubble of affluence and their masters will continue to maintain them there, at least so long as said Fatted Masses keep up the mortgage payments, pension plans, hire purchase and all the rest. That is the only reason the masters put up with them. The Fatted Masses are still quite productive livestock.
I have a feeling the masters are slowly coming to realise that mass affluence is inherently incompatible with saving the planet from disappearing under highways, factories and housing estates in a swirl of climatic turmoil.
I think the game changer is going to be AI. Once the masters realise they can get by far better without the bloody great mess made by the Fatted Masses, they’ll junk the fiat system to detroy the Fatted Masses and take back Nature for themselves.

FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 1:57 am

Mak, last I checked electricity accounted for 20% of total world energy demand. 1-2% via solar.

Even if all electricity came via so called alt energy, how will they replace the other 80% (fossil fuels)?

The optimism bias is very powerful with the humans, which is why PR stunts like the one below give green dreamers like Clog endless fantasy fuel.

All Electric HUMMER EV?! – Everything you need to know!

“Everything we’ve seen today is the top of the line, most spec’d out version of the Hummer

EV called the Edition 1. It’s coming off the line in 2022. And it’ll cost a little over

$100,000. But there will also be cheaper package options coming out in future years.”

https://youtu.be/9FrnNTyOAes

It’s all fantasy, so pick your poison boys.

https://youtu.be/rvPT0f8NtDA

Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:33 am

“The optimism bias is very powerful with the humans, which is why PR stunts like the one below give green dreamers like Clog endless fantasy fuel.”

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scotland-about-hit-its-100-renewable-electricity-target-it-must-go-further-richard-dixon-2864016

“Scotland is about to hit its 100% renewable electricity target. It must go further”

Holland will achieve that goal in 2030, as one of the LAST European nations. As a rule of thumb, you need twice the current electricity production, heat pumps, solid home isolation and you will have an emission-free energy base, with the same output like the current one.

Try to explain that inconvenient fact away. North-Americans are fundamentally unable to think out of the fossil fuel box. Anglosphere rose on fossil fuel (Britain-coal, USA-oil) and will come down with it.

Law of human history: the one who masters a new energy source first, will dominate geopolitics. In the 21st century that will be a united Europe, with China as a good second.

The decline of globalism and rise of publicly owned autonomous driving car fleet will greatly bring down energy demand.

Your pessimism bias is largely rooted in engineering incompetence, so typical for “financialized” North-Americans.

Utrecht-Netherlands 1917, colorized footage. High Civilization, using a fraction of the energy what Dutch people consume today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSqx8Z34vhw

Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:36 am

All Electric HUMMER EV?! – Everything you need to know!

“Everything we’ve seen today is the top of the line, most spec’d out version of the Hummer

EV called the Edition 1. It’s coming off the line in 2022. And it’ll cost a little over

$100,000. But there will also be cheaper package options coming out in future years.”

https://youtu.be/9FrnNTyOAes

What are you trying to prove here? That Americans are exceptionally wasteful? Touche!

You can have this for 11,000 euro:

https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/08/renault-k-ze-the-poor-mans-tesla/

“Renault K-ZE, the Poor-Man’s Tesla”

If you think that e-Hummers are a necessity, than you are part of the “cancer monkey” problem yourself.

Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:55 am

“Mak, last I checked electricity accounted for 20% of total world energy demand. 1-2% via solar.”

In 1995 less than 1% of world population had access to the internet. Now almost EVERYBODY on the planet is glued to a mobile gadget screen all day. And that merely in 25 years time. We have planned for 2050, that is 30 years. That’s doable. The rest of the planet will follow later this century.

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” – Albert Allen Bartlett

Applies to our oh-so-smart FamousDrScanlon as well.

Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:00 am

https://www.gq.com/story/scotland-leads-renewable-energy

“Why Can’t America Follow Scotland to 100 Percent Renewable Energy?”

Answer: there are too many energy illiterates in North-America like FamousDrScanlon, mak, empire dave, DT and the rest of the exceptionalist crew, who confuse opinions with facts.

zero juan on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:23 am

Stupid fuck JuanP has a new sock:

FamousDrScanlon said Mak, last I checked electricity accounted for 20%…

LaNa rEpAeR master race chunk used AK47 to harvest muzz in the sea after muzz opened fire first Taiwan wants to put master race chink on trial said Priority all mess up First retrieve muzz carcasses…

Malcolm J Wardlaw said The Fatted Masses just are not going to face reali…

LaNa rEpAeR foreign policy is simple whatever master race chinks want he should have it The DF-17 hypersonic missile will gradually replace the old DF-11s and DF-15s that were deployed in the southeast region for decades,” the source said “The new missile has a longer range and can hit ta…

Malcolm J Wardlaw said The Hydrogen Economy is a propaganda trope to keep…

Malcolm J Wardlaw said This article was written by an economic illiterate…

FamousDrScanlon said The Psychological Needs That QAnon Feeds Understan…

Davy on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:25 am

“Why Can’t America Follow Scotland to 100 Percent Renewable Energy?” Answer: there are too many energy illiterates in North-America like FamousDrScanlon, mak, empire dave, DT and the rest of the exceptionalist crew, who confuse opinions with facts.

cloggo, Scotland another postage stamp like your home. They are not 100% renewable either becuase they live and depend on areas that are not. BTW, I am far more green and renewable than you. Thank you

Davy on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 7:58 am

“Why Can’t America Follow Scotland to 100 Percent Renewable Energy?” .

cloggo Missouri is another shithole postage stamp like your home. You are not 100% anything except stupid, because you are a fraud and a liar. BTW I am far more annoying and stupid than even you are. Thank you.

zero juan on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 8:22 am

Hi Ppee, I was worried about your depression. Good to see you are still struggling and not dead. What would I do without a lunatic to fuck with. LMFAO you disgusting piece of shit creature. Welcome to hell, troll.

Davy said “Why Can’t America Follow Scotland to 100 Percent…

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 8:23 am

Juan, zero juan is correct. You are a piece of shit and I hope you suffer everyday more and more with your chronic depression

Anonymouse on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 8:23 am

DITTO, LUNATIC

Davy on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 9:55 am

Mommy!

Davy's Mom on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 10:00 am

Wattya want ya miserable little shit!

Jock McAngus of the clan McDuff now fuckoff if ya ken whats good for ya! on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 10:04 am

Why can’t Scotland follow America to 100% obesity and gun ownership?

lAnA RePaEr master race chunk used AK47 to harvest muzz in the sea after muzz opened fire first Taiwan wants to put master race chink on trial said Priority all mess up on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 10:05 am

Love u so much supertard kat
Please love supertard

Davy on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 10:54 am

We want more milk mommy.

lAnA RePaEr this is what supertard wrote on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 11:03 am

Capitalist Cult of The Car

You wake up early everyday
To commute to a faraway place
Which for all intents and purposes
Could best be described as:
“The Height of Tedium”.

You climb the corporate ladder
High enough to afford a new vehicle
The company cafeteria offers donuts
And co-workers congratulate you
With warm welcoming smiles.

That’s how we here survive
While economies elsewhere take a dive.
Feeling blue? Fill the tank up for a drive!
Another war wins fuel for us to thrive
Don’t think, just work — from nine to five.

Not sure whether or not evolution
Would have wanted it this way?
Repetitive stress makes a fine mess
Within this vicious cycle of duress
But whatever the case, dress to impress!

LaNa rEpAeR master race chink used AK47 to harvest muzz in the sea after muzz opened fire first Taiwan wants to put master race chink on trial said Priority all mess up on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 11:11 am

this is why my policy position has always been returning taiwan to master race china.

faulty thinking will cause one to lose in the long term. better return now than facing a losing conflict in the longer term and endure so much suffering

LaNa rEpAeR Philippines’ largest Muslim organization slams Armed Forces chief for calling for monitoring of Islamic schools on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 11:19 am

this development while interesting does not and will never make P’s master race.

This is just random happenstance. There’s no understanding of muzz 1400 years of history of inner struggle.

Just when you think it’s easy to be master race, it slips through your fingers.

LaNa rEpAeR Islamic scholar on Muslim who beheaded teacher over cartoon: ‘We could never say that he committed a serious crime’ on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 11:21 am

if you think this is your chance to be master race, you won’t.

this is vary difficult to understand. only master race chinks understand

LaNa rEpAeR On This Day... Oct 22, 2016: Mosul, Iraq The caliphate executes Iraqi civilians for 'apostasy': 284 Killed on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 11:23 am

it’s impossible to be master race.
only chinks are master race who can harvest master cult muzz

LaNa rEpAeR Too much change is detrimental so fine tune change to what your local of people and place can adapt to. Localism is another key variable. Low carbon is no longer on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:14 pm

low carbon when it is mobile. Scale is disrupted when greater lifestyle ranges

supposedly innitially you’ll wear a shopping bag to go shopping in industrial ag. foodstore. but then permacultism never pans out, you make the shopping bag permanent.

remember only small incremental changes

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:22 pm

I REALLY hate JuanP and his nonsense. He ruined the forum.

zero juan on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:23 pm

from the low IQ South American, JuanP:

LaNa rEpAeR Too much change is detrimental so fine tune change to what your local of people and place can adapt to. Localism is another key variable. Low carbon is no longer said low carbon when it is mobile. Scale is disrupted…

REAL Green said Of all the avatars we coulda picked for are zero j…

LaNa rEpAeR luv u so much supertard kat u will receive muzz-19 soon on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:38 pm

duterte is known to deliver
muzz-19 will be a special brew and contains generous amount of dropout-19 semen

u will croak, have a nice pleasant permanet sleep supertard kat

love u

plese love supertard too

lAnA RePaEr the answer to hate is love i choose to love supertard kat on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:48 pm

muzz-19 will be pumped into him soon

deaths mount in s korea in connection to muzz-17

zero juan on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:57 pm

Stupid PPee juanita

lAnA RePaEr the answer to hate is love i choose to love supertard kat said muzz-19 will be pumped into him soon deaths mount…

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 12:57 pm

Please juan. Leave

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 1:25 pm

I bet JuanP is on some nasty drugs

Anonymouse on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 1:26 pm

Mak, We know he is a pervert.

Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:08 pm

I bet Ozark Dave is on some nasty drugs

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:44 pm

Well, a new day here in the Ps and nothing has changed on the PO forum. The children are still playing and there is no reason to comment or nothing to rebut.

Too bad. This was a great place to exchange real, mature, intelligent ideas and views before insanity set in with Delusional. arrogant Davy leading the parade of fools.

Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:46 pm

Looks like JuanP is taking my cloggie ID again as usual. What a low life!

“Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:08 pm

I bet Ozark Dave is on some nasty drugs”

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:47 pm

Well, a new day here in the Ps and nothing has changed on the PO forum. The children are still playing and there is no reason to comment or nothing to rebut.

Too bad. This was a great place to exchange real, mature, intelligent ideas and views before insanity set in with Delusional. arrogant JuanP leading the parade of fools.

sissyfuss on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:48 pm

Mak, I never cred much for your hypocrisy. You always acted like you wee special but without substance.

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 4:50 pm

The feeling is mutual Siss. ^<^. I am better than anyone on this forum becuase I live in Asia.

JuanP on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:01 pm

Lets face it, I am the reason everything is fucked up here. I don’t care. I am a flawed individual that could give a shit about other human beings.

REAL Green on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:08 pm

Can we give are JuanP sock a avatar too Davy? It could give everyone even more of a reason to laugh at are stupidity.

JuanP on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:11 pm

I want to do the right thing but can’t. The right thing is for me to leave becuase I am the issue here, nobody else! I am proud of that and bitter with myself becuase of that. I wish I could just end this all.

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:11 pm

Juan, everyone hates you so leave please

REAL Green on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:22 pm

JuanP never comments on this side anymore Davy. Cus this side is only for lunatics like us.

REAL Green on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:46 pm

JuanP likely won’t mind if we keep using his handel as our sock Davy. Can we give it a real stupid avatar like are zero juan sock avatar?

zero juan on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 5:59 pm

JuanP is such a stupid fuck, everyone knows it is him and REAL Green no longer post on the insane side. What a low IQ wet back fuck!

REAL Green said JuanP likely won’t mind if we keep using his hande…

REAL Green said JuanP never comments on this side anymore Davy. Cu…

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 6:00 pm

You are correct zero juan, JuanP is a fuck job

Bochen787 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 6:05 pm

If we were in China they would just disappear the lunatic and harvest his organs.

makati1 on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 6:06 pm

You are correct Bo Chen, China would not put up with skumbags like JuanP.

REAL Green on Thu, 22nd Oct 2020 6:07 pm

Everyone no’s were stealin everyone elses IDs Davy.