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Page added on June 9, 2017
UK election: Brexit confusion
UK Prime Minister Theresa May went to the country June 8 seeking a larger mandate both personally and for Brexit, negotiations for which should in theory start in a matter of weeks. Instead, the UK has returned a hung parliament in which no single party has an overall majority.
It is a devastating result for May, whose position is now uncertain, and a vindication for opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose continuing leadership of the Labour Party now looks assured.
However, despite its billing as the “Brexit election,” the first since the UK’s fateful referendum of June 23, 2016, neither of the two main parties campaigned on a reversal of that decision. The pro-Remain Liberal Democrats made gains, but still have only a handful of MPs. The Scottish Nationalists, also pro-Remain, registered significant losses, but remain the largest party in Scotland.
Even if the Conservatives manage to form a minority government with the help of Democratic Unionist Party MPs from Northern Ireland, it will be a highly unstable administration, as would be an informal minority coalition led by Labour.
It means that negotiations on Brexit are highly likely to be interrupted by another UK general election. The timetable was already tight.
The UK triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty at the end of March 2017, creating a deadline of March 29, 2019 for negotiations to be complete.
The EU negotiators plan to conclude the basic withdrawal agreement, “taking account of” the future UK-EU27 relationship, by October/November 2018.
If this deadline is missed, the UK would exit the EU without a specific agreement or transitional arrangements — unless the EU27 unanimously agreed to extend the negotiating period.
The chances of negotiations being complete by the deadline, already slim, now look minimal.
A “hard” versus a “soft” Brexit is generally an expression of the barriers that might arise to trade between the EU and the UK as a result of Brexit.
For the energy industry, in a scenario where no agreement is possible and recourse is made to WTO rules, ad valorem duty (charged by the EU as a percentage of price on imports) on electrical energy, natural gas (gaseous and liquefied), petroleum oils, coal and wood pellets are all zero.
However, the election result creates huge uncertainty about the UK’s capacity even to engage in negotiations with the EU; it creates uncertainty over the clarity and direction of domestic energy policy, both main parties having expressed populist interventionist tendencies in the campaign; and uncertainty over the UK’s general macroeconomic direction.
The pound dived in value against the euro in reaction to the election result.
Uncertainty over policy is often the biggest brake on investment. The rules may be good or bad from any individual project developers’ perspective, but not knowing what they are causes paralysis.
The UK faces an uncertain period in which its capacity to negotiate with the EU looks very weak.
12 Comments on "UK election: Brexit confusion"
You Don't Want to Know Me on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 5:09 pm
Fighting over scraps. That is what all politics are now – little children fighting over scraps as a world they can’t comprehend crumbles about them.
The human race is a vicious species of ape – uncomprehending yet foolish enough to think it can comprehend – and then angry, vicious killers when reality doesn’t conform to their idiotic concepts. The sooner they’re cleansed from the planet the sooner the remaining species can begin to recover.
Cloggie on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 5:09 pm
Watching BBC Newsnight… even they admit that the outcome of the election could be interpreted as “Bregret”.
Many think that May will not survive very long, as there are quite a few Tories, including very senior people, who want to torpedo Brexit and May.
In Brussels there is no glee, but worry that Brexit is all going to be one big mess with a 50-50 Britain. The EU is ready for negotiations and has already accepted to go forward without these notorious anti-Europeans and now these trouble makers are back to f* things up even more.
If I were forced to gamble I would put my money on that Britain in the end will Remain after all. Unfortunately. Britain wants America to be number 1 in the world and will do anything to prevent continental Europe to rise, if necessary with two world wars. Let’s hope that the EU itself will block a Remain.
joe on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 11:54 pm
Cloggie, you seem to think that nationalism is motivating Brexit, its not, it oil. Without oil to trade the UK must have industries that make things to provide employment for a very overcrowded island, if the UK joins the euro then the Germans would never be able to afford the NHS or the level of social welfare for millions of jihadis who live in the UK, you keep saying Brereton, Brean etc, but the Labour Party is and always was PRO BREXIT they just want a pro – worker deal not pro- business one and a much smaller global military profile, 80% of the UK votes went to pro Brexit parties…..
joe on Fri, 9th Jun 2017 11:55 pm
Meant ‘bregret’ ‘bremain’, etc
Cloggie on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 2:34 am
Cloggie, you seem to think that nationalism is motivating Brexit, its not, it oil.
That is ridiculous. Brexit was a British expression of the rising general “populist” sentiment in both America and Europe, basically a disgust of the ordinary population with the globalist policies of the Western (banking and media) elites, that wants open borders and global empire. One World. Everything mixed.
Cameron offered the British a referendum and they did exactly the same as what the Dutch and French populations had done with regard to the EU constitution referendum: reject what the “elite” wants. Middle finger. One Big F* You. Trump presidency, same story.
Normal folks want nationalism, they want to be part of their own club and not be overrun and be replaced by hostile strangers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4vAG8a-thc
The British elite AND population in general don’t like Europe and the EEC/EU. But they observed that the club was a fact of life and next the “if you can’t beat them, join them” logic kicked in, always with the intention to sabotage the EU from within, for instance by promoting Turkish membership.
The entire British elite, including the mayor league opportunist May, were wrong-footed by their own population and a buffoon like Boris Johnson:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hRwnXmdRCo
The British elite only planned to leave the EU after they had destroyed it from within, not before. That intention seemed to have been sabotaged by the British population on a narrow margin, but on Thursday that margin seemed to have swung back in the favor of Bremain, thanks to a high turnout of especially young people (and coloreds), who are majority pro-European and have no binding with Empire sentiments.
It promises to be a big drama, as always with Westmonster… um Westminster (#HouseOfCards)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz8RjPAD2Jk
Sigh.
Cloggie on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 4:16 am
In a typical British cut-throat manner the hunt for the guilty ones has started.
And although I hate to see Brexit possibly torpedoed, I can’t suppress a certain glee with these islanders:
First in line, the campaign managers “Nick and Fi”:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4590818/Ex-No-10-staffer-slams-s-aides-Nick-Fi.html
Next of course is “Mother Theresa” herself, the accidental PM after Camoron blew his referendum, who called for a snap election based on favorable polls predicting a massive lead for her (which she majestically blew):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4590056/TORIES-TURN-THERESA-Civil-war-MPs-threaten-oust-PM.html
And her is Kathy Hopkins, the Muslims-Final-Solution girl (tweet hours after Manchester), who is pro-Brexit, but even she is sharpening the knives and preparing for booting (childless) Mother Theresa:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4589026/KATIE-HOPKINS-Let-Corbyn-moment-glory.html
And here is Conservative senior and Bremainer Philip Hammond, who wants the PM to be MONITORED:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4590054/Furious-Philip-Hammond-dodges-sack.html
He could very well become the next PM by Christmas:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/could-replace-theresa-may-tory-leader-runners-riders-latest/
Libtard and Alex Jones “buddy” Piers Morgan is emptying his AK47 on May:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4588498/PIERS-MORGAN-Dear-Theresa-discredited-dead-duck.html
This article makes it clear this vote was very well about Brexit with a lot of people having second thoughts:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4590332/Why-did-London-Remainers-vote-Labour.html
The British always have been the nail in the coffin of European civilization, but you have to give it to them that they sure know how to direct real drama.
Shakespeare after all was an Englishman.
joe on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 9:47 am
I really do question ur sanity. Do you know anything about the world outside of your probobly American basement? If it was all about nationalism then how come KENSINGTON voted labour? Do you know anything about Corbyn and those now leading the labour party? Probobly not. They want Brexit cause they know if they join the Euro then the NHS etc is finished, the ECB won’t cough up for it. Labour plan to demolish what’s left of UK industry to pay for one more generation of socialism. What’s left of UK industry? Defense and some oil…..
Cloggie on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 12:37 pm
Mr Brexit Nigel Farage now doubts that Brexit will happen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kn9S709XUPw
Apneaman on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 12:42 pm
Here’s the kind of nationalisim that white folk can be proud of.
Kansas Man Indicted for Hate Crime
Adam Purinton could face the death penalty or life in prison for a February 22 shooting, which killed one Indian immigrant and wounded another.
“On March 6, a Johnson County judge released an affidavit accusing Purinton of fatally shooting Srinivas Kuchibhotla and attempting to kill Alok Madasani, both 32-year-old engineers at a tech firm who had immigrated from India to the U.S.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2017/06/kansas-adam-purinton-indicted-hate-crime-killing-two-indian-immigrants/529905/
“God damn Injuns, coming over here and taking are good engineering and doctor jobs.”
Could you imagine if all the brainiac foreigners just went home? The US would crumble within a week. I’m sure native born white folks could step in and fill those jobs eh? Bahahaha. It’s the frustration of knowing that these brown folks who come from countries with only a fraction of the privilege and opportunity that white boy had that makes him want to kill them. What else can a quickly expanding sub culture of white losers do? It’s not as if they have the courage to go after their leaders who are the most responsible. I guess the alternative is to go suck on the fentanyl milkshake. I think these people disgust me because they as so fucking stupid, weak and pathetic.
PATRIOT, n. One to whom the interests of a part seem superior to those of the whole. The dupe of statesmen and the tool of conquerors.
PATRIOTISM, n. Combustible rubbish ready to the torch of any one ambitious to illuminate his name.
In Dr. Johnson’s famous dictionary patriotism is defined as the last resort of a scoundrel. With all due respect to an enlightened but inferior lexicographer I beg to submit that it is the first.
-Ambrose Bierce, The Devil’s Dictionary
Cloggie on Sat, 10th Jun 2017 2:03 pm
PATRIOT, n. One to whom the interests of a part seem superior to those of the whole. The dupe of statesmen and the tool of conquerors.
OK apneaman, show us you do not maintain double standards and openly denounce Israeli nationalism and that Israel should take in hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees.
Furthermore denounce the Israeli marriage laws as racist:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/racist-marriage-law-upheld-by-israel-478291.html
Of course you won’t.
Cloggie on Sun, 11th Jun 2017 2:43 am
Of course Apneaman is not reacting. But tomorrow he will continue his relentless war against white Americans and how they need to be flooded with immigrants. And how the Chinese invented the umbrella and everything else.
Cloggie on Sun, 11th Jun 2017 8:56 am
Action “Dump May” could begin soon, with Boris Johnson as the new great leader:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/uk-election-2017/uk-election-2017-five-cabinet-ministers-urge-boris-johnson-to-move-on-theresa-may/news-story/d7346326f590f6110b816ae699711b12?utm_source=The%20Australian&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=TodaySHeadlines
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4587604/Boris-Johnson-REFUSES-Theresa-PM.html