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Page added on March 14, 2017

How Shale Is Reshaping The World: Three New Wars

We recently met with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss world events since the American election and his new book, “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America.” In the book, Peter credits energy and resource innovations with reshaping the global geopolitical environment.

We covered so much ground in our visit with Peter that we decided to break it into two reports. Last month in part 1, we covered the broad impact of the Shale Revolution, which he calls, “the greatest evolution of the American industrial space since 1970,” and which he expects to accelerate the breakdown of the global order as we know it. Today, in part 2, we examine the major global shifts in geopolitics that will result as the US moves into energy independence. Peter believes this will reshape global geopolitics, leading to three major conflicts – Russia vs. Europe, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia & an Asian Tanker War. It is these conflicts we asked him to discuss in greater detail. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

GAVEKAL CAPITAL: We last left off discussing how the oil export ban could be rescinded if global geopolitical issues flare up. What are you on the lookout for?

PETER ZEIHAN:There are three big conflicts I see that could cause a major schism between what the US pays for oil and what the rest of the world pays for it. I’m talking about a potential global oil price of around $150 per barrel while the US pays only $50 per barrel thanks to shale oil in the US and a resumption of the ban on oil exports. The break-even cost in the United States is around $40. If you put the embargo back in place, you’ve got a functional ceiling on how high the price can be domestically. If shale overproduces and you can’t export the crude, then it’s a question of refining capacity which can’t be built out that quickly.

War number one is Russia vs Europe. The Russian demographic situation is already untenable and it’s moving into catastrophic. By the time we get to about 2020-2022, the size of the Russian army will be less than half of what it was last year. The post-Soviet Union baby bust was that sharp, so if they are going to use their military in an attempt to re-shape their world, they have to do it now. And in many ways they already are. Depending on which scenario plays out -I list several in my book -anywhere from two to seven million barrels per day of crude in the market goes offline. Former Soviet Union oil shipments are in danger in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Northeast Romania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. That list is the entirety of Russia’s western energy exports. The Russians will either use oil as a political tool, or the targeted folks will say, “You’re not going to sell crude through us while you’re conquering us.” Either way it’s going offline. And because Russian energy production is in the permafrost it can’t be shut in safely. If you turn off the wells, they freeze solid and you have to re-drill them, so from the point that the Russians stop production in a field, it’s 10 years minimum to bring it back online.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make when analyzing Russia is they don’t realize that the Russians are not thinking about money right now. The general consensus is that the Russians won’t do anything to disrupt the flow of oil because they need the oil income. That’s not how the Russians are thinking at all. Their current borders are completely unsustainable, and they only have a short window to do something about it. The Russians see the end of their country on the horizon, and they’d rather have that be 60 years from now than five years from now. There’s no route for withdrawal: they’ve got to get through to the Carpathians, the Caucasus and they’ve got to get to the Polish gap and the Baltic Sea.I believe Russia’s move to extend its border is going to fail, but if I were Putin right now, I wouldn’t have a better plan. And that will take, based on which scenario goes down, between two million and nine million barrels of crude offline, and five BCF and 12 BCF of natural gas.

GC:What do you think of the relationship between Trump and Putin?

PZ:For two men with egos as large and as fragile as Trump and Putin, I can’t imagine they’re going to get along for long. However, for 2017 both of them have a lot reasons to focus on other issues, so burying the hatchet for the moment makes a lot of sense. Also, the United States has no long-term rationale to get involved in a ground war with a nuclear-armed power who’s a shell of its former self, with nothing to lose and who is invading countries that aren’t even defending themselves. I expect the rhetoric to pick back up, but for 2017, I think it’s going to be pretty calm in bilateral relations. This will free up Russia to act more aggressively regionally. That means Ukraine is even more in play. That means breaking up the European Union. That means consolidating the former Soviet space. All of that is going to go into high gear this year and next.

GC:What’s Russia’s interest in breaking up Europe?

PZ:If the Europeans are squabbling –and it’s not a difficult task to get the Europeans to squabble –they can’t form a common front against the Russians unless they’re American-led. So if the Americans step back for their own reasons, and you can keep the Europeans at each other’s rhetorical throats, Russia can take advantage.

GC:What would be the bell that would ring that would announce to the world that Russia is on the move?

PZ:We have the French nationalists saying that the Russians are intervening in French national elections just like they did in the US. So the bells are ringing left, right and center. It’s happening. We’ve already had civil discontent in Latvia and Estonia caused by Russian efforts.

GC:Who goes to bat for these countries?

PZ:Well, if it’s not the United States, if you’re the Baltic countries, it’s Sweden. And I think they will. But Sweden can’t roll back the Russians by themselves. They can make it hurt like hell. For Poland, it’s Germany. The Poles just get the bad end of every stick throughout history, and they’re about to get another one. For Romania and the Caucasus, it might be Turkey. Although the Russians are doing everything they can to make sure that the Turks don’t want to get involved, and so far it’s working. Poland, plus Germany, plus the Scandinavians, plus the Brits are sufficient to roll the Russians back.

GC:Are you starting to see movement of personnel and material in anticipation of this?

PZ:All three of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have given up on conventional warfare. They have largely, for all practical purposes, disbanded their conventional militaries and they’re training their entire population in guerilla tactics. They know what’s coming. And the number one country to assist them with that is Sweden. The Finns are basically breaking out all their grandfathers’ equipment and getting ready for another Winter War.

GC:Geographically, is it easy to roll into the Baltic states and Poland?

PZ:Estonia and Latvia are nearly as easy to roll into as Poland. Lithuania is a little bit more difficult. There’s a lot of forest; it’s a bit more rugged. But rolling back the Russians on land has to be German-led, and the Germans don’t have an army right now. They’re the only ones who have the demography to potentially fill a force that could do it.

GC:What could Europe do that would be sufficient for Trump to want to get involved?

PZ:If they doubled defense spending in the next 12 months, that could at least get the conversation started. But if the free trade era is over, if Bretton Woods is over, why would you get involved if you are the US? It’s not a ridiculous position, even if Trump makes it sound that way sometimes.

GC:Does the US continue selling weapons to everyone?

PZ:Oh, of course, the US isn’t that crazy! The US will still pick sides, will still provide intelligence and might even rent out a bunch of drones. I don’t mean to suggest there’s no American role, but the idea of the US Army coming to the rescue, that’s off the table. As we discovered in Crimea, NATO’s rapid reaction divisions are only 500 troops each. In the aftermath of Crimea, only four divisions of 500 troops were sent. The US provided one, Canada provided one, Poland finally provided one, and the other one was all the other NATO counties put together.

GC:How many Russian troops are in Crimea, Ukraine, right now?

PZ:It is tough to know exactly but I’d say at least 15,000 Russian troops are in Crimea. On paper, the Russian military is still basically a million-man army. They are not, man for man, nearly as good as American troops, but they’re better than Spanish troops or Italian troops or Polish troops. In order for Russia to pull this off they probably need at least 100,000 troops. You’re talking about two million square miles and 70 million people. You’re not going to do that with 10,000 people.

GC:This is going to take a massive mobilization effort on Russia’s part, right?

PZ: Well, the mobilization won’t take as long as you’d think because there’s already at least 25,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, not counting the ones that aren’t officially in Ukraine proper.

That process has already started. The Ukrainian military has basically been decapitated. You haven’t heard a lot about Ukraine recently because the Russians sent in a few special forces troops to bait the Ukrainians to send out their own best troops –their American-led, American-equipped troops –to the front. Then Russia used regular army and air force to kill all the commanders of all the best units. So all that Ukraine has left now are reservists. When the war comes, unless the Ukrainians resist to the last man, the regular, organized resistance is already over. It’s just a matter of how fast do the Russians want to push into Kiev.

Now, once they get to Kiev and the bridges over the Dnieper River, you enter a slightly different sort of war because you move into Western Ukraine which is not a Russified Ukraine. You’re more likely to have civilian resistance in Western Ukraine. But that first half, if that takes a month, I’d be really surprised. Belarus will welcome Russia in, and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania combined are only six million people. Moldova can’t manage political opposition to Russia, and the Russians already have an active military base with 10,000 troops. So that just leaves Romania. If Romania and Poland are the great hope for the West in this war, then it is not looking good.

GC:Do you think that war starts this year?

PZ:I don’t know when it will officially begin, but with the way the political relationship is going, and with what I think is about to happen in Europe, it’s a golden opportunity. The Russians can’t maintain this tempo with the demographic situation for very long so the sooner they start it, the better. If you start it before the Europeans start to function like nation-states again, and if the Americans have already exited stage left, it’s a perfect opportunity. Once the ball gets rolling, this will take several years to play out. I think maybe the end play for Russia is to get the Germans to say, “Okay, you can have Ukraine, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Belarus, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Estonia, but you can’t have Poland. What? You took Poland? You can’t have Romania.” That’s basically what the Russians are hoping for. It’s not a stupid plan. That would be their preferred path. And it’s worked before. “Okay, you can have Eastern Poland but we draw the line at Western Poland.” That’s World War II.

GC: What is war number two?

PZ:So Russia vs. Europe starts on its own, not over energy security but energy is a clear casualty. Conflict number two is Iran vs. Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. If the Americans remove themselves from keeping those two powers apart because America no longer cares about keeping oil flows out of the Persian Gulf safe then those two countries fall into direct competition. Eventually, that competition turns into an attempted Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.

GC: How does that play out?

PZ: There’s a 300-mile desert gap between Kuwait and the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, and it’s not clear that the Iranians can make it across. What the Saudis are doing right now in Yemen is target practice for that, they’re preparing, learning to use their military equipment, particularly their air force, to turn that northern desert buffer into a kill zone. Right now, they are doing it pretty well. Will it be enough? I don’t know. The Saudis would rather not face a war at all, but they know that in a post-Bretton Woods world, without American protection, over time the Iranians will bury them. So just as the Russians feel that they’re on a limited time scale to create more sustainable borders, the Saudis feel they’re on a limited time scale to crush Iran. The 2015-2016 oil price war then wasn’t really about shale, it was about Persia. And to be perfectly blunt, it hasn’t worked as well as the Saudis hoped.

GC: So will the Saudis try to develop nuclear weapons?

PZ: No, if it comes to that, Saudi Arabia will just buy them. They can get them from Pakistan and that conversation has already happened. Pakistan has 150 nuclear weapons, and if they can sell them for $1 billion a pop, they are happy to do it. The Saudis are already providing them with subsidized oil in order to make sure that those lines of communication never close. Assuming no one else gets caught in the crossfire, that’s potentially another 11 million barrels per day of crude off the market when these two countries go at it. And if other countries get caught in the crossfire, it goes up to 20 million barrels per day. So the Persian Gulf is War #2.

GC: Is it connected or disconnected from the Russian war?

PZ: Disconnected. It could start any time, it could start tomorrow. When the Iranians realize what the Saudis are up to and that it can kill them, that’s when this war begins. The Syrian war has taken a turn that is relatively pro-Iranian recently, so Iran isn’t feeling stressed. A year ago, it was going a very different direction. ISIS is probably the calmest, kindest sort of group that the Saudis will form over the next few years because it is proving that it wasn’t enough. Now, I don’t mean to suggest that the Saudis are pulling the strings of ISIS; they just formed it and then let it go off on its own. And as long as ISIS is killing Persians and Persian allies, the Saudis are totally fine with it. And the Saudis will form more groups, they’ve probably already formed a hundred groups in the last six years alone. Most of them are fighting in Syria but not exclusively, some of those groups like Jundallah are already in Iran.

GC: What is the third war?

PZ: The third war is dependent on one of the first two: it doesn’t matter which one happens first, either one will trigger the third war. If you have an oil shortage anywhere in the world — because Russia is on the move toward Europe or because Iran is invading Saudi Arabia — energy security and availability for the rest of the world becomes a question of transport routes. The world’s longest, most vulnerable transport routes are from the Persian Gulf to Northeast Asia. Based on whichever country you are in, that’s anywhere from 5,000 to 7,500 miles. If you have a shortage anywhere, Northeast Asia has to eat the entirety of the shortage because they are furthest from the wells. And, worst of all is that there’s not enough to go around for the Koreans, the Taiwanese, the Chinese and the Japanese. Somebody has to go without, and the country that goes without is the country that cannot physically defend crude oil on a convoy route from the Persian Gulf all the way home. So the third conflict is an Asian tanker war, and that triggers all kinds of different results.

GC: Who will be the winners and losers of the tanker war?

PZ: The countries that have the longest reach, like Japan, will probably be able to protect their transport routes the whole way so they should be OK. Japan has by far the strongest navy in that region of the world. Countries that have a deep and abiding experience at bribing people, such as Korea and Taiwan, will probably pay India to fly cover for them for the first part of the trip through the Indian Ocean. This could work out for them, but it comes with a lot of risks. The Chinese have a serious problem with naval power projection and are going to have to establish bases closer to the oil source. That means China will probably have to invade chunks of Vietnam and the Philippines so that they can turn the South China Sea into an internal lake. If they successfully do that, then that’s a 1,000 miles less they have to worry about transporting and protecting their energy supply.

Ultimately though, I would expect the Chinese to lose the tanker war because of how much oil they need and their relative lack of naval strength. I think the tanker war will be the shortest of the three wars, but it’ll be the most colorful, because it basically breaks down the entire structure that has sustained Northeast Asia’s economic ascension for the last 60 years.

By the end of these wars, I would expect us to see around $50 oil in the US, $150 oil in Paris and over $200 oil in Beijing (assuming any crude can make it to Beijing at all). The whole supply chain model that has made East Asia successful for the last 50 years will be gone. All that manufacturing capacity has to relocate, or because of the global demographic breakdown and the energy crisis, all that capacity may just disappear because of lack of demand.

Peter Zeihanis the best-selling author of “The Accidental Superpower.”

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98 Comments on "How Shale Is Reshaping The World: Three New Wars"

GregT on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 12:17 pm

It would appear that Geert has at least some Indonesian blood surging through his veins.

http://www.familyaffairs.nl/UK/FamousData/Wilders.html

That would explain the brown hair, and brown eyes.

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 12:22 pm

Possibly absolute record turnout, more than 80%.

Which could be very good news for Geert.
Wetter was beautiful, atmosphere was very good.

In less than 3 hours exit poll.

http://www.joop.nl/content/uploads/2016/08/wilders.jpg

“Taking back the Netherlands”

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 12:34 pm

It would appear that Geert has at least some Indonesian blood surging through his veins.

Dutch (derogatively) are nicked “kaaskoppen” (cheeseheads)

Wilders is (sometimes) nicked pindakaaskop.

http://kaaskopgroningen.nl/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/IMG_5283-1024×768.jpg

Peanutbutterhead, because of our former (thanks America) colony Indonesia.

Father is Dutch. Mother is Nederland-Indisch (name Meijer, according to Wilders “perhaps” somewhat Jewish).

Ma Wilders:

http://www.toetssteen.nl/2012/08/30/mama-wilders/

18:00 news – first indications of very good result for Wilders.

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 1:40 pm

Perhaps the Turks might want to consider this before they keep on escalating their quarrel with the Netherlands:

https://twitter.com/mattsteinglass/status/840699028530704385/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 1:43 pm

Trump live – Nashville-Tennessee:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i19Aim7_Xts

Hello on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 2:38 pm

How’s Geert doing, Clog?

Hello on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:16 pm

Doesn’t look good for Geert, Clog. Maybe you already have too many kanacken with dutch passport voting?

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:46 pm

Exit poll disappointing. Waiting for real results.

pvv 19, fvd 2, total 21. Perhaps 2 extra because of exit poll shaming. Would be 23 out of 150 is 16% populists. Still better than AfD.

The trouble is the economy is outright booming so they want to continue with Rutte. We need a real crash first.

Good news is: multicult central PvdA (labour) is destroyed. Muslims vote for new Erdogan party DENK. Which is good. Now the darkies no longer hide behind white labour facade. Multucult is a lie, ethno-politucs is next.

Hello on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:48 pm

Did you see the pictures of voting booth in The Hague? Breeding muslim trash voting. Did they vote for Geert? What you think?

Maybe the high voter turn out means that those non-integrated dual citizen make use of their right to vote, that the Clogs so foolishly granted.

And young voters are not much bothered by the toiletry import. They grew up with them. Not like you and me. It’s normal.

The only thing that can save europe is a severe economic stress or a sudden non-trash breeding surge.

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:51 pm

Socialist left is out, green left now #1 left.
D66, #1 EU party and left liberal became big.

Economic right won big.
Nationalist right won from 15 to 21. Not bad, but hoped for more.

Now real first results come from the small islands. PVV doubled.

Hmmm, perhaps another Trump-kind surprise? lol

Hello on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:52 pm

With each passing year Merkel coerces its european vassals to take in more trash. Give it 4 more generations and europe is gone.

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:53 pm

82% turnout.
Democracy still very much alive in NL.

Hello on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:53 pm

Clog, a booming economy needs workes. Open them floodgates already, it ain’t matter much no more.

Hello on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:58 pm

The best you can hope for clog, is long assimilation. Assuming that trash import stops, give it severl generations and maybe the ragheads are absorbed in the same sense as catholics and protestants nowadays get along.

Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:58 pm

Wilders upbeat. Is still young, 53, where Trump is 71.
Perhaps in 4 years.

GregT on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 8:13 pm

“Perhaps in 4 years.”

Why wait? I hear it’s fairly easy these days to emigrate to Kiev. Less populated too!

joe on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 11:55 pm

Wilders is nothing but a side show to the real tale about to be told. Democracy is about to have the life choked out of it in Europe. A copy of China is about to be born from Kiev to Paris, a new socialist democratic system using its powers of consumption as leverage, as ‘soft’ power. Turkey, Russia, Iran, North Africa will feel the convulsions as the new Islamic State of Europe forms initially under Catholic leadership but then forming its own identity as Mecca and Rome merge into one system worshipping the same false god, the illusion of life and power in this world. Cant you guys feel it? The ropes tighten about your hands? Globalism is a trap, you just cant get out. You vote for Trump and he bends the knee to China, he does Saudi Arabias bidding by banning the Shia and even that gets tied up in the courts. France will be next when you see that no right wing power will be allowed to grow in the former Christian papist lands of Gaul. These lands belong to emerging factions of Sunni Whabbism in Europe. The next generation will begin to go under as demographic and economic forces combine with the Islamo-Democratic dynamic in a negative spiral in an almost identical way that another Eastern religion was so heavily involved in the destruction of the previous great European Republic (SPQR). As Christianity destroyed SPQR so Islam will undermine and destroy EUSSR. It is inevitable. The age of oil and fossil fuels is hand in hand with the march of religious fervour and politics. Trumps mega-corporatism is bound to the fate of the EUSSR as is American Liberal Globalism and so it is bound to China, an inescapable trap. Dutch national identity now competes with muslim identity and nigerian identity and philipeno identity and a thousand other issues around gender and sexuality, what is Wilders in the face of this crisis? Just as Lenin knew that Monarchism was doomed so any fool can see that national identity is equally doomed under attack from 5th column of islam starting with the very founding principles of liberal democracy freedom of speech and ending with the unquestioning obedience to the Book, the religion and the majlis. The globalist religion for the globalist world. So called European identity is but a stepping stone to islamic identity, of course its obvious this trap has been laid very well, but its for the next generation not this one. As each individual european loses national identity so they can also individually embrace Islam or live a debauched life safely as long as they dont reproduce. The new orthodox hypocrisy can emerge of a new democracy of tolerance, what a stupid concept tolerance is. ‘ I tolerate a loud naughty child, I am forced to ‘tolerate’ an alien religion and liberal market capitalism in a system where only some pay fair portions of tax’. The propaganda of the EUSSR calls muslim attacks as being done by the ‘mentally unstable’, watch as armies of the insane build a new society right under the noses of people like cloggie and make a mockery of his so called ideals while they demand their rights to practice their barbarous and sentimental religion while the last of the liberal third way democrats pay for the crimes of hubris and greed. Too scared to face the truth that their leaders have sold them out, the dutch, germans, french, english, irish etc will vanish under the umbrella of ‘European’, then Islam will be free to rule, not as a majority you see, not at the start anyway, but as a powerful minority, a new Ottoman Caliphate.

GregT on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 12:35 am

From reading your above post joe, I can honestly feel your pain. There may still be time left to make a move. If I was you, I would get as far away from there as possible, as quickly as I could. It’s not going to get any better, anytime soon.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 12:36 am

https://mobile.twitter.com/RLOppenheimer/status/842127242696220679/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Theedrich on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 4:02 am

The Demonic Party wants national collapse. Through their mainstream media organs they are now even yelling about a stale, illegally obtained summary of President Trump’s 2005 tax documents which reveal nothing of significance. Meanwhile the self-preening Congress makes much ado about male Marines posting nude pictures of female Marines on obscure places on the internet. After all, the women involved might be eternally destroyed. A fate worse than death itself. And, of course, the military must be used as a petrie dish for social experimentation.

The Demonics also keep trying to drag Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, into their attacks on Trump. Without (except for our massive spying on the Russian government) knowing anything about Russian society, they condemn extralegal killings of Russian media fanatics, using American standards of “human rights,” while being very quiet about the assiduous U.S. support of the massive slaughters by Islamic terrorists in the Mideast. (See Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard [D – HI-02] on this.) Such constantly proliferating “rights,” of course, were invented by Christianity and its two millennia of guilt propaganda, guilt now projected onto all White males, focussing especially on Putin and Trump. Curiously, there is no admission of the utterly different conditions in the extremely difficult socio-economy and history of Russia.

In fact, the U.S. Constitution is a suicide pact. It seemed like a good idea during the Enlightenment era, long before Darwin showed that man had evolved from lower primates, and that different races had evolved at different rates and in different directions. But after two centuries of America’s metastasizing dementia, it is clear that the Constitution’s ultimate logical consequence is self-annihilation. Scientifically illiterate lawyers and judges, of course, cannot be expected to know this.

Hence the raucous Demonic screeching about ever-expanding “rights” for subhumans, mutants and parasites. Hence the suppression of free speech on college campuses under cover of “anti-racism” or other media-pushed fads. Hence the Leftist demand that the American ship of fools be swamped by infinite loads of ThirdWorld paranthropoids. Hence the mindless push to pump up the Ponzi scheme of national debt endlessly.

The Demonics, with their Negro ex-prez and directed by their multi-billionaire oligarchs, know full well where they are going. But their intent is that, if they cannot occupy the throne, the nation must go down in flames like the Roman Empire.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 9:03 am

America has been gradually destroyed through mass immigration since 1965 (by design, hi George!) and there is nothing that can restore the old America, not even if you wear four MAGA hats, with the flaps in all four directions. The minorities could be ignored as long as they were minorities, with the American mainstream implicitly pretending that America was a white country, with white first world standards, with a little colorful diversity at the edges, just to sex it up.

That is no longer the case. The non-whites have their foot between the door and are demanding rights, big time, to be paid for by whitey. On top of that, the Euro’s are demonized where ever possible.

Now how do you think this is going to end: a giant physical space inhabited by incompatible people?

Europe from Atlantic to Ural mountains is 10 million km2 and has ca. 30 countries.

America from coast to coast is also 10 million km2 and has 1 country.

Not much longer. It makes more sense to prepare for that break-up event, looming in the short term, rather than preparing for peak oil or climate change, events that won’t make itself felt any time soon in a catastrophic way.

First things first.

– The Breakup of the USSR occurred without blood spilling. It just fell apart as the entire economic system was dead.

– The evaporation of dictatorial communism after 1991 caused a power vacuum in Yugoslavia , a melting pot of very diverse ethnicities. Yugoslavia was THE focal point of where western Catholic Christianity, Orthodox Christianity and Islam meet. The Balkans have always been an unstable region for exactly this reason. The breakup of Yugoslavia began bloodless with the one-sided declaration of independence of Slovenia in June 1991 (supported by the EC that smelled land grab opportunities, which only accelerated the dismemberment of Yugoslavia) . Soon after, a real war began in Croatia (focal point Vukovar) and Bosnia (focal point Sarajewo), and everywhere else with mixed ethnic populations. The situation is now stable, now that most of the Yugoslav territory has been thoroughly ethnically cleansed.

– The breakup of Iraq was initiated by the US invasion of 2003, removing the very dictator necessary to keep the lot together. After endless suffering the situation is far from stable now, although a lot of ethnic-religious cleansing has been carried out already. The breakup was very good for suppressed Shia and Kurds, suppressed by Sunnis (Saddam), but the situation for Sunnis is desperate, resulting in IS. It is likely that Turkey and KSA will ensure that the Iraq and Syrian Sunnies will get their living space… in a Turkish sphere of influence.

– The breakup of Georgia in 2008 was caused by ethnic tensions between pro-Russian Ossetians and Georgians, simmering since 1991. Russia supported the Ossetians, the US the neocon Sakasvilli. Russia prevailed and Georgians were ethnically cleansed.

– The break-up of Syria began in 2011, initiated by foreign supported Sunny Jihadists, revolting against the Alawite-Shia-Christian-Sunny multicult regime of Assad. The US supported the uprising, as it will support ANY uprising in the world in a country not yet part of the US global empire (USSR, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, etc.)

– The breakup of Ukraine began in February with the occupation of Crimea by Russians forces and the hostilities in Sloviansk in April 2014. Crimea and later Donbass have or will merge(d) with Russia.

That’s six break-ups in merely 23 years.

In November 2016, a non-system certified candidate managed to capture US government away from the “Sanhedrin”, ruling since the early 20th century. This was a watershed event in US history, as for the first time in US history, the majority of the white population rebelled against the NWO-multicult agenda of the deep state and miraculously succeeded. Key factor: “I do not need your money”. If you want to compare this event with the cases above, Trump could be compared with both Gorbachev and Milosevic (not with Putin because that would be skipping a few steps). Figureheads who unintentionally initiated the breakup of the entities they became to rule. It won’t be different with Trump.

In all the cases above, the breakup was caused by diverse ethnicities-religions (“identity”) who no longer wanted to live together and/or no longer accepted privileged positions of competing ethnicities.

It won’t be different with the US. First of all, many in the US begin to understand that there is not going to be a global encompassing US empire (“NWO”), although core elements within the deep state have not yet accepted that fact. Trump certainly doesn’t pursue this NWO, although he is still very willing to at least defend the military status quo of the US empire, probably including the status of the South China Sea as an area that needs to be “policed” (read: dominated) by the US. In a recent speech in front of US service personal, he almost sluggishly talked about “projecting military power thousands of miles from home” . And although he professed to be “hoping for peace”, he added that if war was necessary, it was the best to wage that war on somebody else’s turf.

Whatever. In November 2016, the US political system crossed the Rubicon and white America for the first time in 100 years fought back and with success. It is unlikely that the Heartland will voluntarily park itself back in its own coffin knows as Washington, in case something would happen to Trump. I have no idea what the US Sloviansk is going to be, but it is almost certain that the conflict between “left” and “right” will escalate to the breaking point.

Davy on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 9:52 am

Sorry, clog, we have always been a nation of immigrants. Your early to mid twentieth century American character is a distortion. We were only your picture of a white rich America for a few short decades.

We are now filling up, mixing, and maturing. Most of us feel American and respond accordingly. We are a big country of many different realities. Generalizations are weak in this case. You are wrong equating all the social ills with the US to ethnicities, cultures, and race. You can’t compare your lists of above countries breaking up except very generally. Your analysis is an intellectually weak racist based agenda. You don’t even live here and you act the expert.

I suggest you worry about your collapsing Europe who has many examples of internal violence. You are in a bad position and act like you are the next empire in the making. What a joke.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 10:37 am

Sorry, clog, we have always been a nation of immigrants.

Of course. But there is a history before and a history after 1965. A crucial difference. It was difficult enough to keep all these different Europeans together in one tax farm. But these new non-Europeans? No way.

We were only your picture of a white rich America for a few short decades.

Huh? Make that 1492-1985, or five centuries.

Your analysis is an intellectually weak racist based agenda.

History and the world are racist, a fact of life Americans like you liked to suppress, because they were so keen in ramming the entire world into a single empire, owned by them, regardless the cost.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1tf8lv_yak

You completely misread what the last election was about. You keep talking, in a sort of approving way, about the return of “nationalism”, but when I asked you recently who your people are, you ignored it. Because there isn’t any. That would be “racist” and we are all glad we are not like that.

It simply means that officially you don’t care what the ethnic-racial composition of the US is (anybody fits), while meanwhile you ensure that on a private level you safely stay away as far as possible from diversity. There is no separate ethnic-religious group you identify with. You are, like most North-Americans, loyal to “humanity”, America-The World. That is: the US empire.

Greg, and all the other North-American green-left leaning, higher educated folks, same story.

Deep in your heart you are still a one-percenter and not really disloyal to Washington.

The point is that Heartland USA, of which you are NOT a card carrying member, has very well chosen what future it wants and it is diametrically opposed to what the US deep state wants. And that my friend will spell the end, not only of the US empire, but also of the US itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBOTk00eMT4&t=44s
[3:44-12:45] moment supreme 12:08. These are the REAL deplorables. That’s how they all think.

I suggest you worry about your collapsing Europe who has many examples of internal violence. You are in a bad position and act like you are the next empire in the making. What a joke.

You don’t even live here and you act the expert.lol

Europe is not collapsing, not in a long shot.

GregT on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 10:42 am

“America has been gradually destroyed through mass immigration since 1965 (by design, hi George!) and there is nothing that can restore the old America, not even if you wear four MAGA hats, with the flaps in all four directions. The minorities could be ignored as long as they were minorities, with the American mainstream implicitly pretending that America was a white country, with white first world standards, with a little colorful diversity at the edges, just to sex it up.”

Right Cloggie. The mass immigration to the Americas began in the 1600s. Indigenous “Americans” are not white, and they are now in the vast minority. The Americas were brown continents for tens of thousands of years, at least, before the mass immigrations began.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 11:21 am

We all know our basic history Greg. The idea of a forum is to make a point, preferable a controversial one, one that ignites debate.

Meanwhile in Turkey:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4319522/Europe-headed-religion-wars-despite-Wilders-stumble-Turkish-minister-says.html

Oh the racism! War, conflict everywhere! Why can’t we just get along?

ROFL

Apneaman on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 11:33 am

Hair clog is correct on immigration. The seeds of destruction were laid in the late 15th century when stupid white people began immigrating to the Americas. One could see how the natives would be upset N all since they were already here for 15 thousand fucking years before whitey showed up. And they still here…waiting for whitey to finish destroying himself with his Frankenfood, stupidity, greed and drugs overdoses.

Have to wonder, if Europe was so “civilised” then why come here? Same for all that “Golden ages” that never were bullshit. If everything was previously so fucking awesome, why did it change?

Immigration is good scapegoating – never need to look in the mirror that way and realise just how big of an incompetent and degenerate fuck-up your people are. To be such monumental losers only a few decades after having more wealth and power than any other group in monkey people history has to smart.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 11:56 am

The seeds of destruction were laid in the late 15th century when stupid white people began immigrating to the Americas. One could see how the natives would be upset N all since they were already here for 15 thousand fucking years before whitey showed up. And they still here…waiting for whitey to finish destroying himself with his Frankenfood, stupidity, greed and drugs overdoses.

You are so right Friedman-Friday. They should all be shot. And while we are at it, why not begin with shooting the cancer monkeys from the Alberta oil patch? No?

never need to look in the mirror that way and realise just how big of an incompetent and degenerate fuck-up your people are.

It is obviously that Friedman-Friday doesn’t like white folks very much. So who does he like?

Clog, I guess the Jews have bested you and everyone else right? There are so few of them that they must be the real supermen to dominate like they do. Why not stop your struggling and bow down to your betters? To the superior race? Is there some measure of superiority that I’m missing? The most powerful are the most powerful. The cream rises to the top. Survival of the fittest and all that. You only look like a sore loser not being able to accept your inferiority. It’s simply the natural order of things. Y’all been trying to rub them people out for over 2000 years and yet they still your overlords.
Da Jews R # 1 Da Jews R # 1 Da Jews R # 1 Da Jews R # 1 Da Jews R # 1 Da Jews R # 1 Da Jews R # 1

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/intelligence-advisor-discusses-coup-against-president-trump/comment-page-3#comment-314336

So Friedman-Friday, why don’t you send the “stupid white kids of Greg and Davy” (your words applied to reality) into a war against, say China? They (Davy and Greg) are going to suck your dick anyway. They are in a terminal Stockholm-relationship with you folks and will NEVER resist and even get angry (Davy, not Greg) if I even bring up the subject.

What else is new?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yw_v3hqtCl0
([14:50-15:35])

Thanks for showing up, Friedman-Friday, for offering the opportunity to make a crucial point.

I can understand very well that you are upset with these “stupid white folks”, as they failed to deliver the world to you, after hundred years of trying.

Naughty white Anglo folks.
Naughty hairpiece president.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/25/the-broken-chessboard-brzezinski-gives-up-on-empire/

ROFL

onlooker on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 11:59 am

Yes, Empire has been pretty much a white “thing”. And where ever it has sprung up it has laid waster to everything and everyone around it. Now fittingly, it has encompassed the Earth and laid waste to it and most everyone in it. Final Empire.

Davy on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 12:06 pm

Clog, we identify at multiple levels. We are rich, poor, and middle class. We are rural, urban, and suburban. We are a mix of political leanings. Religious associations is very strong. We are north, south, east, and middle.

Race is a much narrower identification and you fail to see this becuase you are a racist that sees life through racism. I am not saying your positions are all wrong. What I am saying is they are much less the factor you think they are. There are racist here and racist situations but these are narrow also. The corrupted media blows their significance way out of proportion.

You are wrong about the US in so many ways. Your history revisions of the 20th century are a mumble jumble of unverified and embellished occurrences that support your new European empire (confederation of Paris, Berlin, Moscow). You want to blame others for Europe’s failures. You especially want to forgive Germany its horrible 20th century sins. You make some good point but your message gets lost in the detail and the noise.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 12:07 pm

It wasn’t. The US whites were merely a conquered people who volunteered to be the water carriers and foot soldiers to realize the imperial designs.

So if it is not a “white thing” than what kind of “thing” was it? Why not ask a people and civilization that has been around for thousands of years? A civilization that itself fell victim to the criminal societal designs of the same people we are talking about?

http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-arts-and-culture/books/167289/nanjing-jewish-studies

onlooker on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 12:49 pm

Jews are mostly white are they not?

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 1:00 pm

No, 90% of them are essentially Turks from the Ukraine area:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khazars

https://www.amazon.com/Invention-Jewish-People-Shlomo-Sand/dp/1844676234/ref=sr_1_2

http://khazaria.com

“white” usually means “of European descent”

onlooker on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 1:25 pm

I heard I think from Kazakhstan

onlooker on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 1:27 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Central_Asia
History of the Jews in Central Asia

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 1:31 pm

no, no, Kazakhstan and Khazaria (which was destroyed by Mongol invasions) are two different things.

Ghung on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 1:34 pm

Cloggie is obviously afraid of Jews. Otherwise he wouldn’t spend so much time and energy trying to trash them.
Maybe it’s because the are smarter than he is. Or maybe because he’s a racist asshole with a severe inferiority complex. Not sure which, but his constant bigotry got old a long time ago.

GregT on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 2:00 pm

““white” usually means “of European descent”

Hmmm, last time I checked Ukraine was considered part of the European continent.

http://www.clipartkid.com/images/499/europe-continental-country-flags-and-map-royalty-free-stock-photo-WpxTf9-clipart.jpg

Does that not make them 90% Europeans?

joe on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 2:05 pm

Cloggie, the USSR broke up because it ran out of money and Russia had no interest in defending it in the face of the resources required and the fact that Gorbachev believed US promises not to expand NATO. The US broke its word and so here we are today. This will only get worse in Eurasia as US aggression causes Russia to react. The raison d’etre of freedom is developing away from crushing oppressive religions and systems and embracing people’s ‘rights’ and trying not to offend each other. Its time for this climate change causing folly of bankster crapitalism jihad funding system to end, but the issue right now is its built on fiat money, it wont end until the US and IMF is no longer able to hoodwink the world anymore.

GregT on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 2:16 pm

And also Cloggie,

It is my understanding that the Caucasian race could be traced back to the Caucuses Mountains along the border between present day Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.

Would that not make us white folk Asians?

GregT on Thu, 16th Mar 2017 2:53 pm

I guess it really depends on what point in history one prefers to focus. If evolution itself has any bearing on ones reality, then we are all the same species, from the deepest darkest jungles of Africa. Africans. One and all.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 6:01 am

Cloggie is obviously afraid of Jews.

The only people who are afraid of them are Anglos like you. Completely subjugated. But I take them serious alright, it is the only serious enemy we “whites” have, now that they have for 100 years or so the Anglos at their disposal as a tool to attempt to subjugate the whole world, which is going to fail.lol

Otherwise he wouldn’t spend so much time and energy trying to trash them.

Enemies are there to fight.

Maybe it’s because the are smarter than he is.

They? Average IQ of “them” is 115. My officially measured IQ was 135, as can be expected from a graduate from a Dutch engineering university, ranking #16 according to Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-innovative-stories-europe-idUSKCN0Z00CT

Or maybe because he’s a racist asshole with a severe inferiority complex.

It is a matter of smear words. Perhaps you are a commie asshole who doesn’t want to defend European civilization and as a consequence turn his (US? UK?) country into a third world dumpster. Fine with me. The US turning in a third world hell hole, automatically implies the return of Europe to planetary poll position, without the necessity for us to shoot a single shot. Bring it on!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/07/detroit-illiteracy-nearly-half-education_n_858307.html

We in Europe only have to wait until the inevitable US breakdown occurs. A breakdown makati, you, Greg and Davy are preparing for. I only have to read your minds to get a grasp of the true situation North America is in, without having to visit the place.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 6:30 am

George Soros would be proud of you, Greg.

You really go at great length to deny the importance of ethnicity, race and nationality in social life and human achievement, not to mention warfare.

http://www.counter-currents.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/BwnCM9OCYAAJfu9-1-e1449202145292.png

Your attitude will make the US empire the shortest lived empire in world history, after that other kosher empire, the USSR.

Fine with me. Give us a call when you need to be rescued out of the hands of the oh so equal barbarians, so we not only can roll back 1945 but to a certain extent 1776 as well. You may be making yourself very vulnerable as an “anti-racist”, but it takes two to Tango:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kgVq1Ql-cg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC-Cqkq6zWc

Soon, European normality, ranging from the magnificent Roman empire until 1945 will be restored.

What are you going to do about it, Anglosphere?

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 6:47 am

BREAKING

Conflict with Endorgan escalates. Turkish fighter jet shot down over the Netherlands:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7HEkDaX4AA34p3.jpg

Davy on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 6:47 am

“You really go at great length to focus the importance of ethnicity, race and nationality in social life and human achievement, not to mention warfare.” Works both ways clog. You are an extremist. You make good points but fall into the usual emotional distortions of extremism. I call that going to makatiland.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 7:41 am

More world reshaping:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/china-und-saudi-arabien-schliessen-abkommen-ueber-65-milliarden-dollar-a-1139223.html

Now that oil prices are low, KSA is forced to attract foreign investment. Guess who is biting?

China.

According the (pre November 2016) US vassal der Spiegel, has China committed itself to the tune of 65 billion dollar.

China was already KSA’s most important trading partner since 2015.

Bei Treffen einem bezeichnete Chinas Präsident Xi Jinping Saudi-Arabien als “globalen Partner” für die “Neue Seidenstraße” der Chinesen.

According to Chinese president Xi, KSA is to be integrated into the planned New Silk Road overland Eurasian network, China is pushing for, to counter US maritime dominance.

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-silk-road-to-link-china-and-middle-east-2016-6?international=true&r=US&IR=T

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are all moving rapidly to develop solar energy, and sunlight intensity on the Arabian Peninsula is among the highest on the planet. Could the Arab world harness its sunshine with massive solar farms derived from Chinese technology and supported by co-investment, becoming a global provider of renewable energy, rather than oil, in the future?

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 7:44 am

Again, it requires an area the size of Spain covered with solar panels to replace ALL energy production in 2017 (ignoring distribution and storage).

KSA has that, formerly useless, desert space.

Davy on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 7:51 am

Clog, it would take two planets to deliver a Spanish PV size global energy system. It would take another Spanish size energy storage and grid upgrade equaling another planet in resources. We then need the attitude and behavioral changes of supermen when all we have are homers.

Now, you may criticize me for that sloppy retort but sloppy deserves sloppy. Now join the real universe and human race.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Mar 2017 8:30 am

Now, you may criticize me for that sloppy retort

There are 7 billion people standing by to built the infrastructure in say 30 years.

That’s merely a few solar panels per capita.

Can be done.

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