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Page added on February 12, 2016
America’s Energy Outlook Is Bright
In its annual outlook for energy report, ExxonMobil presents data that contradicts Obama’s green energy utopianism. Who has the better track record of predicting the global energy future: Obama or a private company that actually produces the stuff?
In its just published report, “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040,” Exxon makes three key points. First, by 2040, global energy demand is predicted to rise by 25%. That demand must be met if living standards are to improve, and there are only three feasible ways of meeting it: fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and alternatives. The choice of energy sources will be driven by a combination of cost and government policy. Coal remains the cheapest source of energy for electrical generation, but its use is likely to drop after 2025 as a result of environmental policies. Reliance on oil and natural gas, on the other hand, will continue to expand, as will nuclear energy and alternatives.
Second, the “carbon intensity” of the world’s economy will drop by half. More efficient use of fossil fuels means a savings of close to 40%, thus reducing cost and lowering carbon emissions by an equal percentage. U.S. energy companies are producing lubricants, plastics, materials, and other products that result in lower energy usage. Greater efficiency means lower costs, resulting in higher living standards.
Third, in 2040, oil will still be the world’s leading energy source, followed by natural gas. Together with coal, these sources will provide for 80% of the world’s energy needs. Nuclear energy, projected to double by 2040, will provide most of the remaining 20%. Wind power will deliver a mere 2% of global energy. Solar even less.
Fortunately, there are ample supplies of oil and gas to power the world economy well beyond 2040. The International Energy Agency estimates that recoverable oil and condensate resources now stand at 4.5 trillion barrels, replacing earlier “peak oil” estimates of one trillion barrels. By 2040, it is likely that recoverable oil will have risen again, perhaps by a factor of five and certainly enough to power the global energy through the end of the century.
Recoverable natural gas resources are even greater. According to IEA, current gas resources are enough to supply the current level of global needs for another 200 years. And this estimate does not include vast reserves that will result from new exploration and advances in technology. With the U.S. now self-sufficient and exporting natural gas, the West’s energy security is assured to a degree that has not existed in the past.
That’s good news for the American people and for the world, even if it is not news that Obama wants to hear. With a century’s worth of cheap, practical energy in hand, the global economy has a good chance of expanding just as it did in the last century – a century in which U.S. living standards increased by a factor of 10. I am living ten times as well as my grandfather did when he was a boy. There’s no reason my grandchildren should not be living ten times as well as I am today. What stands in their way is not a lack of resources or technology – it’s government.
Specially, liberal government. Obama’s outlook – and that of the green activists who gathered in Paris in December for the latest global climate summit – is something very different from that of global prosperity based on cheap fossil fuels. Unlike Exxon’s carefully researched report, Obama’s green fantasy is based on ideology rather than data. Its projection of 50% reliance on green fuels is a pipe dream, and its climate data is skewed to match ideological goals (as, for example, in NOAA’s decision, just ahead of the Paris meeting, to shift methodologies for collecting ocean temperature data to what the agency calls “new methods”).
Most importantly, Obama’s outlook ignores market realities and assumes that governments can force their way on acquiescent populations. It doesn’t seem to occur to the president that the world’s seven billion people might not wish to pay double for their energy needs. That is one reason China and India and the rest of the developing nations refused to accept a binding agreement in Paris. Even developed nations in Europe and Asia were secretly relieved at the non-binding result.
That leaves the Obama administration on its own, driving energy producers in the U.S. out of business while the rest of the world continues on a path to a more prosperous 2040. New regulations restricting methane release at drill sites will make U.S. oil production just that much less competitive. Not just oil and gas, but coal in particular has been a target. The administration’s latest decision to suspend coal leasing on federal lands is one more blow against this once great industry – and one more impediment on the nation’s economy.
What’s needed is a national energy policy that acknowledges the reality that the U.S. and the world will remain dependent on fossil fuels up to and well beyond 2040. Instead of hampering domestic production and restricting export, Washington needs to promote fossil fuels as a vital American industry.
Nothing can change the reality that the world will depend on fossil fuels well into the present century, if not beyond. But Obama has done a great deal of damage to domestic energy production, and he is determined to do more in his last year in office. He can be stopped only by the will of the people and its representatives, and by the courts. Barring government interference, the U.S. will continue as the world’s top oil and gas producer.
As oil prices recover, more jobs will be created, and the U.S. will become fully self-sufficient in energy. Oil and gas will continue as one of the foundation stones of a strong economy, with the U.S. becoming a net oil exporter by 2025 and the world’s second largest natural gas exporter by 2040. Although Obama can’t see it, the outlook for energy, and for the U.S. economy, is bright. It’s just not built on windmills and solar panels.
29 Comments on "America’s Energy Outlook Is Bright"
onlooker on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 6:09 am
“Fortunately, there are ample supplies of oil and gas to power the world economy well beyond 2040.” Should have said ample supplies to bake the planet! Notice how the recoverable oil just keeps getting higher. I suppose Exxon does not notice the negative repercussions and reverberations now occurring to the economy and the oil sector from trying to get at these unconventional sources which are economically and energy intensive to get at. Oh and finally, all this oil and gas if it was available and used would just allow us to further degrade the planet and continue to populate it a sure recipe for disaster. Of course we already are on a disastrous path no matter what we do. So inhale the hopicum high while you can.
adamc18 on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 8:00 am
C’mon people – you put up an equally ignorant ‘article’ from American Stinker not so long ago and it was torn to shreds by all the rational people here – so are you just being provocative?
Mark Ziegler on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 8:03 am
Everything is omitting the next generation and I fear few people will wake up when Saudis largest oil field fails to produce. Presently now at 47% water cut.
JuanP on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 8:45 am
US shale oil, https://www.rt.com/business/332159-us-shale-oil/
Kenz300 on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 8:46 am
70 More Earthquakes Hit Oklahoma, Averaging Nearly Three a Day in 2015
http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/11/fracking-earthquakes-oklahoma/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=1fd6621515-Top_News_1_11_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-1fd6621515-86023917
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Half of U.S. Fracking Industry Could Go Bankrupt as Oil Prices Continue to Fall
http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/18/fracking-industry-bankrupt/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=bddf330f10-Top_News_1_18_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-bddf330f10-86023917
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Exxon Mobile —- funding climate deniers and misleading investors… the fossil fuels industry will fight to the end…..
Lawfish1964 on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:19 am
“With the U.S. now self-sufficient and exporting natural gas, the West’s energy security is assured to a degree that has not existed in the past.” Hahahaha! We export one tanker of LNG and suddenly we’re a net gas exporter? I don’ thin so, Looosy.
ennui2 on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:23 am
‘C’mon people – you put up an equally ignorant ‘article’ from American Stinker not so long ago and it was torn to shreds by all the rational people here – so are you just being provocative?’
Helps balance out the tinfoil.
antaris on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:26 am
Jeffrey Folks the author proves to be quite the Obama, Liberal hater and climate change denier.
My guess is that he is paid very well for the shit he spues.
penury on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:47 am
To dream the impossible dream. Today seems to be a day when every one is dreaming. Reality will be here shortly.
Bob Owens on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:47 am
The American Thinker obviously isn’t thinking. This article is a mash of all the tired, worn-out, trotted out talking points of big oil, mixed in without any facts. Please stop posting this stuff! My brain is about to explode!
Dredd on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:52 am
If only Oil-Qaeda was bright enough to knew how to tell the truth (Proof of Concept – 7).
twocats on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:14 am
“Helps balance out the tinfoil.”
Yeah, these far-right wing nut tanks aren’t delusional in the slightest. His whole contract between Obama and Exxon is a complete and utter fantasy. What’s the policy reference for this supposed green utopianism? COP21? Hah!
twocats on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:15 am
*contrast
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:26 am
Click bait
It works
Peakoil.com sells advertising space.
No clicks means no traffic. No traffic means no ad revenue. Considering all this site does is repost other people’s work it basically free money.
Apneaman on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:51 am
American Thinker? Oxymoron of the century if ya ask me. How about, American Mouth Breather? American Knuckle Dragger? American Inbred? I like American Retard since it covers 95% + of the population.
GregT on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 11:13 am
“Helps balance out the tinfoil.”
Well that certainly erased any shred of credibility that you might have still had left ennui2.
Nut-bar.
Davy on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 11:37 am
“Here Is The Liquidation That Just Sent Shockwaves Through The Crude Oil Market”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-12/here-liquidation-just-sent-shockwaves-through-crude-oil-market
“A week ago we exposed the real reason for the “crazy volatility” in crude oil markets, and specifically the driver of the immense rally (despite weak data) in crude – a massive liquidation of the triple-inverse ETF DWTI. Today we have another mysterious, even larger spike in crude oil prices (for no good reason other than ‘old’ misunderstood rumors about OPEC production cuts). The driver, it would appear, is another liquidation as the ETF trades at a huge discount to NAV. The last time this happened, it didn’t last. We saw the same actin last week (and the delayed data exposed the liquidtaion)… it’s happening again…”
“Shorting Oil: That brings us to the oil funds. The top-performing ETF in 2015, the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN (DWTI), is what its name says: A leveraged bet against oil prices, which tripled in 2015 to lead the ETF industry.”
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010515/2015s-most-promising-etfs.asp
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 12:56 pm
http://youtu.be/8qrriKcwvlY
Plantagenet on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 1:35 pm
Obama’s energy outlook doesn’t matter any more—he’s a lame duck limping along at he end of his string.
The real question is what President Hilalry’s energy plan will be after Jan. 20, 2016.
Cheers!
bug on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 4:02 pm
Apnea, “American retard” is a perfect title.
Plant, how are you so Positive it is Hilalry’s to win? What insite do you hold?
Boat on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 5:33 pm
Either a woman or a Jew will win. Another first for America. Unless the makeup of Congress changes there will be lot’s of veto’s and not many changes.
Davy on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 7:02 am
“Is This Debt’s Last Rattle?”
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2016/02/is-this-debts-last-rattle/
“There’s one reason for the delay only: central bank hubris.”
“It’s starting to feel like we have functioning markets again. Starting. Central bankers still seek to meddle where and when they can, but their role is largely done.”
“these inane policies concocted by a bunch of bankers and bookworm academics who don’t even understand how their own field works, as Steve Keen once again explained recently, would have blown up in their faces long before if not for China’s decision to join in and then some. Some $35 trillion, that is.”
“Money, debt, spent on ghost cities and on what now turn out to be ghost factories. Ghost jobs, ghost prosperity,a ghost future. Makes us wonder all the time what people thought when they saw China used as much cement in 2011-2013 as the US did in the entire 20th century. Did anyone think that would continue for decades, even grow perhaps? Have we lost all sense of perspective?”
“How much cement or steel can one country need, even if it’s that large? How much coal and oil can it burn, let alone store? Blinded as we were, apart from the financial shenanigans, much of what the ‘developed nations’ engaged in since 2008 was overleveraged overinvestment, facilitated by ultra-low rates, in industries that would feed China’s hunger for ever more forever. Blind? Blinded?”
“they can still all go for helicopter money -and some will. But that will be the definite last step, and they know it. Dropping free money into a festering cesspool of debt is as useless and deadly as all previous QEs put together.”
“It’s stunning to see for everyone at first blush that the “book value” of global proven oil reserves is down by $120 trillion or so since summer 2014. And it certainly is a big number; the S&P has lost ‘only’ $2 trillion in 2016. But what counts is the speed with which that number sinks in, and that speed depends on one’s reference frame. In the same vein, what’s perhaps most important about all the seemingly separate crises developing before your eyes is how they feed on each other.”
Davy on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 7:12 am
“The Recognition Of China’s NPLs Has Begun: A Chinese Bad Loan Is Trying To Find A U.S. Buyer”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-12/recognition-chinas-npls-has-begun-chinese-bad-loan-quietly-trying-find-us-buyer
“China has a big Non-Performing Loan problem, a problem whose size we first quantified as much as $3 trillion, or the same amount as all of China’s FX reserves.”
“So, to summarize, a Chinese loan worth RMB556 billion collateralized by RMB1.2 trillion in the form of a petrochemical wharf, or a paltry 46% LTV, and which has a tiny cost of capital of 4.5%, is not only no longer performing in China, but is hoping to find a buyer in the U.S.”
“One can’t help but wonder how many trilions (in US dollars) of assets are about to be wiped out when the NPL wave is finally recognized, and more to the point, since Chinese bad loans are already quietly trying to find a buyer in “long investment horizon” hands, does this mean that the trillions (in US dollars) in NPLs are about to finally flood the mainland?”
Dubya on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 9:55 am
“I’m living 10 times as well as my grandfather when he was born. ”
Actual quality of life improvement
1945-1975 – 145%
1975-2015 – 0.7%.
Yep, looks like grandpappy (& daddy too) did pretty well.
Today’s generation is a lot better off than mediaeval serfs, African slaves or Han dynasty peasants. But I think quality of life is currently about as good as it gets.
I hope everybody’s ready.
Davy on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 11:02 am
Quality of life within a relatively resilient and sustainable regime was at its peak 1650-1830. Once the industrial revolution kicked into high gear our values, sustainability, and relative quality of life fell with every year of destructive change.
We now have a situation where we are knocking on the door of a bottleneck fat, lazy, and pissed off. We are kind of like a nice fat pig ready to be butchered. We are a dispicable species now to ourselves and to all the other creatures of the world.
Boat on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 11:23 am
Davy,
That is funny for a guy that depends on wipes to clean his butt.
“Once the industrial revolution kicked into high gear our values, sustainability, and relative quality of life fell with every year of destructive change”.
Really? Really? Consider a shrink. Me thinks dementia is setting in.
GregT on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 12:10 pm
“Me thinks dementia is setting in.”
You don’t think Boat. You react emotionally.
onlooker on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 12:29 pm
I think guys Boat is reluctant to honestly look at himself, others and the world we are currently living in.
Davy on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 1:00 pm
“In Venezuela, “Savage Suffering” Takes Hold Amid Frightening “Food Emergency”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-13/venezuela-savage-suffering-takes-hold-amid-frightening-food-emergency
“As we’ve documented extensively, Venezuela is staring down an imminent default, despite the fact that the country does in fact try to service its debt. As Barclays noted last month, the country will need to spend 90% of its oil revenue on debt payments assuming $32 crude. Obviously, that’s not a tenable proposition.”