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Page added on January 17, 2017

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Peak Oil is Baaaack

A great report published last year by HSBC called:

Global oil supply – Will mature field declines drive the next supply crunch?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9wSgViWVAfzUEgzMlBfR3UxNDg/view

They make a good many points frequently hammered on by Chris:

Based on our supply model, we estimate that 81% of world liquids production is already in decline, excluding future redevelopments. However, on a more benign definition we estimate the figure at 64%, or 59mbd vs global supply (excluding biofuels/processing gains) of 91mbd.
The remainder of output is accounted for by 1) new conventional fields or large fields in ramp-up or plateau, 2) natural gas liquids (~13.5mbd globally, where production is often associated with long-plateau gas output, typically for LNG), tight oil (~5mbd) and biofuels (~2.3mbd).
If we assume 5-7%pa decline rates on a benign estimate of 59mbd of global post-peak output, the supply lost between 2016 and 2040 amounts to 41-48mbd. For context, this is broadly 4x the current crude oil output of OPEC’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia (c.10.5mbd). Assuming all other pre-peak production is held constant, this is the amount needed just to keep supply flat.
To provide in addition for the expected rise in global demand over the period, the additional supply needed could be closer to 55-60mbd.

They forecast a supply crunch in the 2018 time frame:

Impending supply constraints are a key factor behind our USD75/b long-term (2018e and beyond) price assumption.

Peak Prosperity


26 Comments on "Peak Oil is Baaaack"

  1. dave thompson on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:36 am 

    Finite planet, finite resources and supply, What could possibly be wrong with an infinite capitalistic system of endless growth?

  2. baha on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:43 am 

    Aren’t they going to be surprised when the price doesn’t go up.

  3. penury on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:43 am 

    Peak Oil never left, declining stocks, lower quality, higher prices they will occur and then what? Discover a new planet made of oil, we would be saved.

  4. Sissyfuss on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 10:52 am 

    There is still enough left to fry us all.

  5. Cloggie on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 11:00 am 

    Peak oil is something different than peak conventional oil.

    Peak conventional oil isn’t all that important, not as important as Heinberg and ASPO thought it was.

  6. rockman on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 11:12 am 

    Peak Oil is not Baaaack. People that can’t comprehend the Peak Oil Dynamic are baaaack along with all the ones that never did appreciate the POD. LOL.

  7. Davy on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 11:32 am 

    At a time when our modern civilization needs more we are getting less out of our foundational energy sources. Tell me that is not a peak oil and a dynamics of diminished energy value to society. Systematically it only takes a small decline to breach minimum operating levels when the minimums are so critical. We are being slowly boiled and we pretend we are not frogs. LOL. Peak oil dynamics is alive and well we are just too stupid to realize the meaning of its consequences.

    We may have an out or partial out but it is slipping by daily as we piss away good resources after bad and continue with bad behavior. Nature is not going to be nice to us when things go south. We are habituated to thinking there is always a welfare net but ultimately there is none for civilization. We are just screwed and we can’t fathom that. Denial of peak oil dynamics is just such a case with a civilization constructed with no future facing a reality of less. Forget the standard definition and the typical misinterpretation of peak oil by MSM. Think about it systematically with a world in overshoot on all metrics then you realize how screwed we are…..Ribbit

  8. brent on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 1:40 pm 

    And if Donald Trump goes to war with Iran that oil crunch time frame will be dramatically reduced. http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/314539-trump-nominees-vocalize-tougher-stance-on-iran-rightly-so

  9. Goat1001 on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 2:36 pm 

    I never thought Peak Oil went away. The rate of consumption of the resource is continuing to substantially surpass the rate of discovery. Sounds like peak is imminent or happening now.

  10. peakyeast on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 2:44 pm 

    LTG (and its updates) are still the best guesses IMO.

    http://donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/

  11. Boat on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 4:10 pm 

    Meanwhile back at the ranch world demand ended up at 1.4 Mbpd in 2016. The Eia forecast was 1.2. This year the Eia guesses oil demand at 1.6 for 2017 and 1.5 for 2018.
    At this rate of consumption a new peak of oil production is around the corner. Will the glut of stored oil be reduced byOPEC/Russia or will they cave as other producers like US shale jump in and take market share. For at least the short term, glut oil dynamics rules the markets and the price at the pump.

  12. GregT on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 4:56 pm 

    “glut oil dynamics rules the markets and the price at the pump.”

    $125.9/Litre here today Boat. Back in January of 1999 we were paying 30.7 cents/ litre.

    Strange how that huge glut of oil has increased the price by more than 400%. Again Kevin, something is seriously wrong with your sense of logic. (or lack thereof)

    http://www.theprovince.com/Historical+prices/4760052/story.html

  13. peakyeast on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 5:03 pm 

    1.259$ WoW.. Almost same price as Denmark. 1.33$ here.

  14. Apneaman on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 6:17 pm 

    I’m no ANGEL, but……

    “It went away and you hung around

    And bothered me, every night

    And when I wouldn’t disbelieve with you

    You said things that weren’t very nice

    peak oil’s back and you’re gonna be in trouble
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    You see it comin’ better cut out on the double
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    You been spreading lies that it was untrue
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    So look out now cause it’s comin’ after you
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)
    (Hey, it knows that you been tryin’)
    (And it knows that you been lyin’)

    It’s been gone for such a long time
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    Now it’s back and things won’t be fine
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    You’re gonna be sorry you were ever born
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    Cause it’s kinda big and it’s awful strong
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)
    (Hey it knows I wasn’t cheatin’!)
    (Now you’re gonna get a beatin’!)

    (What made you think we’d believe all your lies?)
    (Wah-ooo, wah-ooo)

    (You’re a retard now but it’ll cut you down to size
    (Wah-ooo, wait and see)

    Peak oil’s back it’s gonna ruin your civilization
    (Hey-la-day-la peak oil’s back)

    The puny humans are gonna take a permanent vacation
    (Hey-la, hey-la, peak oil’s back)

    Yeah, peak oil’s back
    (La-day-la, peak oil’s back)

    Look out now, yeah, peak oil’s back
    (La-day-la, peak oil’s back)

    I can see it comin’
    (La-day-la, peak oil’s back)

    So you better get a runnin’
    (La-day-la, peak oil’s back)

    Alright now
    (La-day-la, peak oil’s back)

    Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
    (La-day-la,peak oil’s back)

    Peak oil’s back now
    (La-day-la, Peak oil’s back)….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NuofNHKbVc

  15. GregT on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 6:30 pm 

    Thanks peaky,

    Yes, $1.295, not $125.9.

  16. Boat on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 7:50 pm 

    greggiet,

    How much of that is tax. Here in Houston there are gas stations at $2.03 per gallon. You do the math for your area. My area is cheap. Maybe you should have picked a cheaper place to hide from Jews. A cheaper place to escape to those ferocious dominating women. Lol
    In fact much of your tax goes to military pay.. among the highest in the world. Is that because ya’ll drink so much? Or the last line of defense from the onslaught of Jews and women.

  17. Apneaman on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:04 pm 

    Boat, up here they use that tax revenue to fill the pot holes – something Houston seems incapable of for all it’s bragging. They also maintain the rest of the infrastructure too. It’s going….slowly, but nothing like the shambles of US infrastructure. It was Reagan who started the “No New Taxes” thing in the 80’s wasn’t it?. What did all think your trillion dollar infrastructure was going to maintain itself? Worst infrastructure in the “developed” world boat and half way to third world and in thousands of US cities and towns the drinking water is unhealthy. Then there is your 20 trillion dollar debt – the other big elephant you pretend does not exist. It doubled in 8 years under Obama methinks. I’m sure, like the infrastructure, it will take care of itself.

    A Country Breaking Down

    http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/25/infrastructure-country-breaking-down/

    AMERICA’S G . P . A . D+

    ESTIMATED INVESTMENT
    NEEDED BY 2020:$3.6TRILLION

    http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/

    In addition to the obscene neglect of the infrastructure, y’all are getting pounded ever harder by AGW, so your crumbling infrastructure life span will be all the shorter.

    2016: A historic year for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in U.S.

    “The year 2016 was an unusual year, as there were 15 weather and climate events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States.”

    “Perhaps most surprising were the 4 separate billion-dollar inland flood (i.e., non-tropical) events during 2016, doubling the previous record, as no more than 2 billion-dollar inland flood events have occurred in a year since 1980. Three of these flood events were clustered in Louisiana and Texas between March and August, collectively causing damage approaching $15.0 billion. This is a notable record, further highlighted by the numerous other record flooding events that impacted the U.S. in 2016.”

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2016-historic-year-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-us

    BTW, a good many of you voters share the responsibility, or lack of it, for the infrastructure situation. Always tax money for another sports stadium, but other than that all taxes is Big Gov evilness and messing wit yur freedumbs. Fucking retards.

    Boat when it gets really bad, gimme a holler – you can come up, crash on my couch, do your laundry, grip a shower and fill up your Jerry cans or old milk jugs with some clean Canadian water to take home. I’ll even Barbecue you up some elk steaks.

  18. antaris on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:16 pm 

    Hey Boat. Thought you guys were 18 trillion in debt and Mr Grab her buy the privates wants to fix all the infrastructure. Sounds like somebody’s haven’t been paying taxes. 50 cents a gallon would go a long way and from the drivel you spew that shouldn’t be any hardship for the masses.

  19. Boat on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:24 pm 

    Ant,

    Taxes only hurt the poor. Now Do an FDR and put a 90 percent tax on the 1 percent, you got some debt relief and infrastructure.

  20. antaris on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:35 pm 

    So what is the likely hood of that happening?

  21. GregT on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:39 pm 

    “Thought you guys were 18 trillion in debt”

    Actually antaris, that would be 19.96 Trillion, but what’s an extra 1.96 Trillion anyways? Chump change. Hardly worth talking about. 🙂

    And that’s just the national debt. All totalled the US is 66.753 Trillion in debt, with another 104 Trillion in unfunded liabilities.

    http://www.usdebtclock.org

  22. antaris on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:52 pm 

    If all over the world everybody yells default, I wonder if the few will here it ?

  23. antaris on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 9:56 pm 

    But they probably already know. They are actually humanitarians trying to keep the ball in the air for one more day.

  24. Robert Spoley on Wed, 18th Jan 2017 10:14 am 

    I thought the article was about “Peak Oil”. What I’m reading is not about that subject at all. Peak oil is about a large number of topics some of which are: 1)actual recoverable left; 2)location of that oil; 3)cost to recover that oil; 4)demand for that oil at sustainable prices; 5) distribution of the oil; 6) competition from other energy sources. The list goes on. Currently the U.S. has prohibited exploration around nearly all of its’ continental shelf territory for a variety of reasons. So have a lot of other countries. We also deny a lot of onshore exploration for similar reasons as do others. When the population gets so large that existing source areas can no longer provide adequate supplies for the demands of the population, regardless of prices, forbidden areas will be opened for exploration and other energy sources will become more competitive due to actual supply limitations and prices. As the old saying goes “the cure for high prices is high prices” the same can be said for low prices. Oil is a commodity and should be treated and regulated as a commodity. So much for “peak commodities”.

  25. Sissyfuss on Wed, 18th Jan 2017 10:40 am 

    Oil is a pollution source and is never priced accurately.

  26. roberto G on Wed, 18th Jan 2017 2:06 pm 

    i have followed peak oil news for many years but never got involved with the debate until now. so here goes. I suspect much of the shift away from everything as usual in the world since ww2 is to do with a shift in energy resources. the arab spring and the migrant crisis for example was i am sure at least a little, probably a lot to do with the USA and others withdrawing support on two levels for its former dependency middle eastern countries. one, direct investment into the oil fields themselves and two, investment into these very hierarchic, centrally administered countries that needed a small well paid middle class to prop up the dictatorship of the often very few, extraordinarily rich central figures in the regime. these people cost money to employ and it isn’t very readily available from taxation. so these small well paid very westernised middle classes and the others that enjoyed their spending power, suddenly found themselves without jobs. hence despair, the Arab spring and finally migration. all because of oil? in part, yes. the money that used to go to these favoured sons and daughters now goes on exploration of tighter sources. the cheap oil of the middle east was always made a little more expensive by having to prop up these awkward indigenous unsavoury bedfellows but with improving technology and declining returns we saw the industry diversifying away from the old reliables to more stay at home adventures.

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