The Energy Watch Group (EWG) has reiterated its warning that the highpoint of conventional worldwide oil exploitation had been reached in 2006 and said that with its “World Energy Outlook 2010”, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expressly endorsed this conclusion for the very first time, corroborating that the production of crude oil will never again achieve the 2006 level.

The agency, made up of 28 OECD countries, represents the governmental interests of the largest “Western” energy consuming nations.

In a comprehensive 2007 study, the Energy Watch Group’s scientists explained why “after attaining this maximum production, there is a very high probability that in the coming twenty years – by 2030 – annual output of crude oil will halve.”

In each of the past few years, the IEA has revised its annual forecast of worldwide oil production downward, converging toward the Energy Watch Group’s analysis.

Unlike the Energy Watch Group, however, the IEA continues to espouse expectations that are far too optimistic in regard to the expansion of oil production from conventional and unconventional sources. Thomas Seltmann, the EWG’s project manager, explains: “Leading representatives of the IEA regularly declare that ‘several new Saudi Arabias’ would need to be tapped only in order to maintain current output levels. This would also be a condition for their current scenario, but these oilfields simply don’t exist. You can only produce oil that you can find.”

Moreover, the IEA continues to make unrealistic assumptions about the potential output from so-called “unconventional” wells: natural gas condensates and tar sands – two putative substitutes for crude oil.

Production of the latter is very complicated and detrimental to the environment, and the availability of both is much lower. “Bringing them online is absolutely not comparable with the familiar oil production on land and in the sea”, Seltmann qualifies. “Nonetheless, the IEA still suggests that the oil supply can be raised to meet demand.”

The unjustified optimism about oil is paralleled by an equally unfounded pessimism vis-à-vis the expansion of renewable energies, and the expansion rate outlined by the IEA is well below the current growth rates for renewables. Seltmann says, “We urgently recommend that governments ambitiously accelerate the expansion of renewable energy in order to counter the foreseeable shortages and price jumps of fossil fuels. More rapid expansion of renewable energy is more economical overall than a slower approach. Even completely meeting our energy needs with renewables is possible within a few decades and more economical in total than the further consumption of oil, natural gas, coal,

and uranium.”

Download of the study and updated graphic related to the EWG oil study here.

3 Comments on "International Energy Agency confirms peak oil was in 2006"

Rick on Thu, 3rd Mar 2011 5:14 am 



It’s more than clear that Peak Oil happened in 2006, globally. And since there’s no more spare capacity, you end up with $100+ oil, on any unrest in the Middle East. What is happening now in the Middle East will be a wake-up call for those in the US, who still don’t have a clue what Peak Oil is. Lifestyles here in the US, will soon be changing. No more happy motoring as JHK always says.

Anthony on Thu, 3rd Mar 2011 9:51 am 



This does not come as a shock to me. However I do not want to see anymore “We need to develop green energy sources” posts. There is 0 chance of that happening and would take all the energy in earth just to make American alone a green economy, if not more.. People who say that have no idea what they are talking about. I will say however, why the hell is this article not on the front page of every newspaper on the globe?! This world is about to get a lot more serious..

Brendan on Fri, 4th Mar 2011 6:37 am 



Anthony, do you believe that the recent authoritarian push by the American right wing is in any way motivated by knowledge of peak oil?