Saw this article published in the Montgomery Advertiser and written by Winston Porter, former assistant administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Bold mine.

Support domestic oil production

North American oil production grew by 1.8 million barrels per day in the last two years and the International Energy Agency expects that production to grow by another 3.9 million barrels by 2018. This added capacity to the world market has not only helped meet growing oil demand, but has softened the blow when oil production in other countries falters — which is the case right now.

Although this is for all North America, I think it is still way too high. Canadian increase by 2018 will be minor and Mexican production is highly likely to decline quite a bit.

Well that might be what the IEA predicts but the EIA has a different prediction. The data for the below chart was published in the EIA’s ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2013. However the actual prediction, from the date on their chart, was made in 2011. All data is in million barrels per day. Also the IEA is predicting Total Liquids while all data here is Crude, and I am guessing, Condensate.

 

They have US C+C peaking in 2016 at 7.52 million barrels per day. Actually they are a bit low with that prediction because we are almost at that point today. But the main point is they have the US peaking in 2016.

But what about Tight Oil, what is their prediction there?

They have Tight Oil at 2.3 mb/d in 2013 and peaking in 2020 at 2.81 mb/d. Keep in mind that though this data was published in May 2013 it was compiled and predicted in 2011. They are actually a little low in their 2013 prediction but I think their long term prediction is quite optimistic. I believe tight oil will peak no later than 2015 and decline much faster than they predict.

But what about All Liquids. That was the data the IEA was working with when they predicted an increase of 3.9 mb/d by 2018. Well in that report they also give their predictions for that also.

 

They have All Liquids at 11.5 million barrels per day in 2013 and peaking in 2019 at 13.1 mb/d in 2019. That comes to 1.6 mb/d over the next six years. Not nearly as optimistic as the IEA. By 2018 the EIA says US Total Liquids will be up by 1.5 mb/d nowhere close to the 3.9 mb/d the IEA predicts.

In the Chart above “XTL” is coal to liquids plus gas to liquids. “Other” includes refinery process gain and I don’t know what, if anything, else.

At the EIA link above the EIA publishes their own charts but they also have a link to the XLS spreadsheets. I downloaded that and created my own charts. I don’t like the “stacked data” format for charts that the EIA uses. I like to separate all the different data.

7 Comments on "EIA Crude Oil Predictions in 2013"

J-Gav on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 9:20 am 



Makes it look like, by 2020, most production indicators will be turning down, down, down … Not an unreasonable prediction in my view but, considering imponderables like conflict and supply-chain disruption, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

BillT on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 2:49 pm 



Being seven long years away and maybe in another world, there is no way to predict anything with accuracy. Tomorrow could bring WW3 and total collapse of everything in a few bright flashes over major cities like DC.

EIA is just another government mouth piece.

bobinget on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 3:06 pm 



OTOH … we might be on the verge of “combat fatigue”.

As 2013 ‘draws to a close’ humans may be on the verge of coming together to deal with problems most common. Signs are all over this could be the case.

Hunger, empathy, a finite lifespan focuses the mind.

I disagree with the first two posters.

Being old has one clear advantage. “Been there, done that’

J-Gav on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 4:35 pm 



Bob – Maybe you disagree with BillT and me but you failed to specify on what …

On the other hand, I agree with you when you say “… humans may be on the verge of coming together …” In fact I’d go a little further and say “Some humans are already getting together and working hard to deal with our most urgent problems.”

The question is: Are there enough people moving in that direction fast enough to avoid major cultural disruptions? And I’d guess that’s where you might disagree with the answer myself and BillT would probably give …

CAM on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 5:14 pm 



And yet even as production in tight oil, the tar sands and the deep water Gulf of Mexico trend up, depletion of all the conventional fields in North America continues apace. Some may think that this temporary rise in production is good. Maybe! But the more we burn before the “big crunch” strikes, the less we will have left afterwards to foster some type of recovery to an alternate life style.

GregT on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 5:16 pm 



“As 2013 ‘draws to a close’ humans may be on the verge of coming together to deal with problems most common. Signs are all over this could be the case.”

If that is the case, we in western societies will be in for a far rougher ride, sooner than even I had imagined. World hunger alone would require a great deal of ‘our’ empathy, and an even greater deal of our ‘share’ of the world’s resources.

I am sure that we could all get along and take care of each other, if we in the west were willing to lower our standards of living to those of say, Argentina or Mexico.

It is coming, one way or another. Those that learn to live a much simpler life, with far less now, will be much better positioned for the future.

nemteck on Tue, 17th Sep 2013 6:44 pm 



EIA Oil price & supply forecasts are consistently and heavily biased in the optimistic side: Are they dimwits or idiots? Forecasting an oil price to the last Cent in 2025 is insane.

http://www.worldoil.com/August-2007-Systematic-bias-in-EIA-oil-price-forecasts-Concerns-and-consequences.html

EIA Oil price projection in 2004:
“..Crude oil prices are determined largely in an international marketplace by the balance between production in OPEC and non-OPEC nations and demand. In the reference case, the average lower 48 crude oil price is projected to be $23.61 per barrel in 2010 and $26.72 per barrel in 2025 (Figure 93). In the high world oil price case, the lower 48 crude oil price increases to $32.80 per barrel in 2010 and $34.90 per barrel in 2025. In the low world oil price case, the lower 48 price generally declines to $16.36 per barrel in 2010, then rises to $16.49 per barrel in 2025…”