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Page added on February 4, 2013
China sees 2011 resource gains, more growth by 2030
Chenglin Liu
Chinese Academy of Geological Science
Beijing
Changbo Che Jie Zhu Fulin Yang
Ministry of Land and Resources
Beijing
Shaoqing Wang
China University of Petroleum
Beijing
China has begun the annual national oil and gas resources assessment after China’s National Petroleum Assessment 2007.
Based on previous assessments, China’s National Petroleum Assessment 2011 has evaluated conventional oil and gas, oil shale, and shale oil resources in the Songliao basin and its surrounding medium and small-scale basins and the Liaohe depression of the Bohai Bay basin in northeastern China by using the petroleum resource assessment software system developed by China’s National Petroleum Assessment 2007 and updated in recent years.
The assessment results show that oil and gas recoverable resources in northeastern China are 7.22 billion tons of oil and 2.46 trillion cu m of gas and that total oil and gas recoverable resources in China are 24.58 billion tons of oil and 33.76 trillion cu m of gas.
Oil and gas recoverable resources in northeastern China make up 29.37% and 7.29%, respectively, of the total of China.
Oil shale and oil from oil shale recoverable resources in northeastern China are 233.4 billion tons and 8.66 billion tons, respectively. Shale oil in-place resources in the Gulong area of the Songliao basin are 1.15 billion tons.
It is forecast that the annual oil proved reserves will sustain the current level and the annual gas proved reserves will increase at a fast rate in northeastern China before 2030. Oil production will exceed 56 million tons/year before 2020 and reach 45 million tons/year at the end of 2030. Gas production will be 26 billion cu m/year at the end of 2030.
Introduction
The US Geological Survey estimated mean volumes of undiscovered conventional petroleum resources in six geologic provinces of China, at 14.9 billion bbl of oil, 87.6 trillion cu ft of natural gas, and 1.4 billion bbl of natural gas liquids in 2012.1
These six provinces are the Junggar, Bohaiwan, Ordos, Sichuan, Songliao, and Tarim basins.
Liu compared the USGS 2000 assessment 2000 and China’s 2007 National Petroleum Assessment and found that six major factors contributed to the differences in the two assessments.2
The six major factors are petroleum resource classification systems, data sources, assessment scopes, unit divisions, assessment methods, and assessment parameters.
From 2003 to 2007, China’s National Petroleum Assessment Team has completed oil and gas assessment of 115 Chinese basins.3-10 From 2008 to 2010, China’s National Petroleum Assessment 2010 has fulfilled oil and gas assessment of six basins, i.e., the Bohai Bay, Ordos, Sichuan, Zhujiangkou, Qiongdongnan, and North Bay basins.11
Based on these two assessments, China’s National Petroleum Assessment 2011 has evaluated conventional oil and gas, oil shale, and shale oil resources in the Songliao basin and its surrounding medium and small-scale basins and the Liaohe depression of the Bohai Bay basin in northeastern China.
The countrywide annual oil proved recoverable reserves and production are 0.25 billion tons and 0.2 billion tons, respectively, in 2011, 16.3% and 0.8% more than those in 2010. By the end of 2011, the oil remaining recoverable reserves are 3.24 billion tons, and the ratio of oil reserves to its production is 16.2 in China.
The total annual gas proved recoverable reserves and production are 367.73 billion cu m and 101.28 billion cu m, respectively, in 2011, 29.7% and 7.7% more than those in 2010. To the end of 2011, gas remaining recoverable reserves are 4.02 trillion cu m, and the ratio of gas reserves to production is 39.7.
Assessment methods and parameters
CNPA 2011 adopted the petroleum resource assessment software system developed by China’s National Petroleum Assessment 2007 and updated it in recent years.
For conventional oil and gas, assessment methods included geochemical balance, analog methods, statistical methods, and Telphi comprehensive assessment methods. For unconventional petroleum, i.e., oil shale and shale oil, the main assessment methods were volumetric methods.
The valuing standards of main parameters, e.g., the minimum organic richness of active source rocks, oil and gas migration and accumulation factor, oil and gas resource richness, oil and gas recovery factor, and minimum field size, were obtained through lab simulations and statistics. Oil minimum field sizes of onshore and offshore basins were 0.1 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, and gas minimum field size of all basins is 0.1 billion cu m.
This assessment relied mainly on petroleum exploration and exploitation data of China National Petroleum Corp. and China National Petroleum & Chemical Corp. For CNPA 2011, the cutoff date of the data for the Songliao basin and its surrounding basins and the Liaohe depression of the Bohai Bay basin was the end of 2010.
Conventional oil and gas resources
The CNPA 2011 shows that the total oil recoverable resources in the northeast of China are 7.22 billion tons, which are 1.3 billion tons larger than those of the CNPA 2010.
The oil recoverable resources in the Songliao basin, Liaohe depression of the Bohai Bay basin, and northeastern medium and small-scale basins are 5.44 billion tons, 0.94 billion tons, and 0.83 billion tons, respectively. The countrywide oil recoverable resources increase to 24.58 billion tons in CNPA 2011 from 23.29 billion tons in CNPA 2010 (Table 1).
Unconventional petroleum resources
In northeastern China, rich oil shale resources are mainly distributed in 23 mining areas (including the Fushun, Huadian, Fuyu-Changchunling, and Qianguo-Nongan North mining areas) of 14 basins (including the Songliao, Linkou, Fuyu-Changchunling, and Qianguo-Nongan North mining areas).
CNPA 2011 shows that oil shale recoverable resources and oil from oil shale recoverable resources in northeastern China are 233.41 billion tons and 11.58 billion tons, respectively, which are 177.69 billion tons and 5.94 billion tons larger than those of CNPA 2007 (Table 3).
This assessment analyzes the main controlling factors of shale oil accumulation, builds shale oil resource classification standards, chooses the volumetric methods as the assessment methods, and determines assessment parameters for shale oil. Shale oil in-place resources are 1.15 billion tons at the Gulong sag and about 10 billion tons in the Songliao basin.
Petroleum reserves and production forecast
The multipeak Hubbert model is used to forecast the oil reserves and production of northeastern China from 2011 to 2030.
The cumulative proved oil reserves will increase from 10.3 billion tons in 2011 to 13 billion tons in 2030, and the mean annual proved oil reserves of the country will be 0.15 billion tons in northeastern China. At the end of 2030, the proven degree of oil resources will be 58% and northeastern China will be still at the stage of middle oil exploration maturity (Fig. 1).
Before 2030, the annual proved gas reserves of northeastern China will grow at a high rate.
From 2011 to 2030, the mean annual natural gas reserves of northeastern China will be 26.2 billion cu m, 41.3 billion cu m, 56.3 billion cu m, and 75.7 billion cu m every 5 years. At the end of 2030, the accumulative proved natural gas reserves will attain 1.45 trillion cu m and the proven degree of natural gas resources will be 31.9%, and northeastern China will be still at the stage of middle gas exploration maturity (Fig. 2).
Acknowledgment
This study is supported by the China National Natural Science Fund Project (41272159). We thank Shu Sun with the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Guangming Zhai, Chengxi Sheng, and Keqing Tian with CNPC and Kuixing Gong with CNOOC for the contributions.
References
1. Charpentier, R.R., Schenk, C.J., Brownfield, M.E., Cook, T.A., Klett, T.R., Pitman, J.K., and Pollastro, R.M., “Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources of six geologic provinces of China,” USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3117, 4 pp.
2. Liu, C.L., Che, C.B., Zhu, J., Yang, H.L., Liu, W.P., and Zhao, W., “Comparison of petroleum resource assessments of China by the US Geological Survey and the China National Petroleum Assessment Team,” AAPG Bull., Vol. 96, No. 8, 2012, pp. 1,415-27.
3. China National Petroleum Assessment Team, “China national petroleum assessment 2007,” China Land Press, Beijing, China, 2009, 383 pp.
4. China National Petroleum Assessment Team, “China national conventional petroleum resource assessment 2007,” China Land Press, Beijing, China, 2009, 1,500 pp.
5. China National Petroleum Assessment Team, “Assessment software system and database of China national petroleum assessment 2007,” China Land Press, Beijing, China, 2009, 129 pp.
6. China National Petroleum Assessment Team, “Future petroleum reserve and production forecast in China,” China Land Press, Beijing, China, 2009, 268 pp.
7. Liu, C.L., Che, C.B., Zhu, J., and Yang, H.L., “China’s endowment-2: China assesses unconventional land oil shale, oil sands, coal gas resources,” OGJ, Vol. 108, No. 15, 2010, pp. 36-39.
8. Liu, C.L., Che, C.B., Zhu, J., Yang, H.L., and Fan, B.J., “Recovery factors of oil resources in China,” Natural Resources Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2010, pp. 23-31.
9. Liu, C.L., Zhu, J., and Zhao, W., “Oil reserves, production forecast for 81 China land frontier basins,” OGJ, Vol. 109, No. 6, 2011, pp. 62-66.
10. Zhu, J., Che, C.B., Yang, H.L., and Liu, C.L., “China’s endowment-1: China assesses conventional resources in 115 basins,” OGJ, Vol. 108, No. 14, 2010, pp. 32-35.
11. Liu, C.L., Che, C.B., Zhu, J., and Yang, H.L., “China updates data on four key basins in 2010 national resource assessment,” OGJ, Vol. 110, No. 6, 2010, pp. 56-61.
11 Comments on "China sees 2011 resource gains, more growth by 2030"
LT on Mon, 4th Feb 2013 8:18 pm
By 2030 desertification could reach downtown of Beijing.
The Yellow river might look like an unpaved trail.
The Zangtse river might become a creek.
Water table in northern China might become dried rock table.
But if 1.3 billions people are to urinate simultaneously, they can refill the Yellow in not time, I guess! So, water might not be an issue, here! 🙂
LT on Mon, 4th Feb 2013 8:19 pm
By 2030 desertification could reach downtown of Beijing.
The Yellow river might look like an unpaved trail.
The Zangtse river might become a creek.
Water table in northern China might become dried rock table.
But if 1.3 billions people are to urinate simultaneously, they can refill the Yellow river in no time, I guess! So, water might not be an issue, here! 🙂
Arthur on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 12:07 am
I do not share the enthusiasm concerning China and do not believe in a Chinese century, as it is all me-to. I do like their prudence and restraint in international affairs, based on thousands of years continuity. But am less charmed by their uniformity and conformity. I can’t remember a single name of an artist or writer or politician except for Mao, Chang-Kai-Check and Deng Xiaoping. And the last place I expect to hear solututions concerning resource depletion is from China, witnessing idiotic notions of growth in 2030 based on unconventional carbon fuel.
BillT on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 1:06 am
Arthur, it sounds like the US and Europe doesn’t it? ^_^ All brag and no show. But then, by 2030, the Western countries will be gone under the collapse of their currencies and financial systems. I suspect that China and Asia as a whole will still be chugging along in a holding pattern, if not growing. After all, they have been around in one way or another for those 5,000 years you mentioned. Can’t say the same for the West.
Arthur on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 1:34 am
Bill, I agree with you in many if not most respects, first and foremost the seriousness of the energy and resource situation. Just for fun let me state the differences between you and me
– you: technology is not going to save us, me: technology can reduce the inevitable hurt
– IT. You: just another gadget destined to go under. Me: it is going to be the backbone of the economy of the future
– China. You think the future is China, I think the European world, and that includes you, is going to stay on top.
– Europa. You: is going to fall apart, nations will cut each others throat and Russia will pick up the pieces. Me: the center of gravity of European civilization will move back from America (200 million Euros) to Greater Europe (Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis of 700 million) after the demise of Bretton Woods.
– USA: you: no future. Me: inevitable financial crash first, but relatively good long term conditions. Open question whether free society or neo-bolshevik police state.
– internet. You: needs satellites and for this reason alone has no future. Me: it does not.
– windturbines. You: negative net energy. Me: eroei of 50 or higher for modern turbines on windy offshore locations.
– finance. You attribute greater importance to financial parameters than me. Me: financial systems do crash but usually recover after a few years. Proof: Argentina, Iceland, Russia.
DC on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 6:04 am
When all is said and done, I dont really rate China’s prospects as all that much better than ours. They are using the same flawed ‘business’ model as we are. That imo, cannot end well. The signs that it will not, are already hanging in the air over most chinese cities. There is not enough money or resources for China to mitigate that, and other problems. Unless of course, China decides to create a…ahem….’service’ economy and outsource its heavy industry(well, its the US’s former heavy industry technically), to where?, though?
India? haha
Africa? The US is ramping up the next
phase of its war-of-terror Africa edition for the express purpose of stopping China’s ability to invest there dead in its tracks. See-Libya for a preview of what the US has planned for Chinas investments in Africa.
While there are differences of culture and outlooks that are different from ours, and in some cases superior, the nagging problem with China is, they are not creating a model for a better, post-carbon world (if such a thing is even possible anymore). In fact, the evidence suggests they are failing rather badly at it, if they are even making a serious effort. If that changes, and I can see un-deniable proof of it, ill be on China#1 bandwagon too. As I see it however, they are in same boat as the rest of us when it comes down to it.
BillT on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 10:01 am
Arthur, we disagree on most things. The future will prove one or both of us wrong. I see China rising for many years yet. They can lose more people than Europe has and still have more than Europe has today.
How much do you read about China that does NOT come thru MSM channels? Especially from the US. I sit here 600 miles off their coast. I’ve been to Hong Kong recently. I see them buying up land, industry and resources all over Asia and in Africa, South America, etc. They even are buying in the US and there are millions of Chinese living there as well as in Europe.
I see the EU splitting soon, probably caused by the crash of the Euro. Then I see resource wars between European countries. You are a group of tribes trying to be one, but you speak too many different languages and have too many long standing cultural differences and disagreements to ever meld into one.
The Us is building their own form of hell, and it is quite possible that they will never have another Presidential election. The dollar is toast, to put to mildly. It only survives because the other Western countries are worse. You don’t see any other countries rushing to save it. Most of the world would like to see it die.
Japan is waiting for the next shake that will finish the job at Fukushima and empty Tokyo. The Chinese have already offered them one of those empty cities they are sitting on, for a price of course.
No, there are too many black swans circling for your dream of a United Europe to exist much longer and for the Us to ever be powerful again. No rebuilding economies when they go down this time. Where it lands is where it will stay.
BillT on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 10:09 am
BTW: Argentina, Iceland, and Russia all crashed before the current crisis hit and before peak oil production became fact. All three have natural resources that Europe, Japan, or the US don’t have. Iceland came back because they kicked out the Banksters and let the banks crash. Argentina is just a young country having growing pains. Russia has petro resources that will keep them in business with these high and higher prices. Plus, they still sit on thousands of nukes.
Arthur on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 5:11 pm
“Arthur, we disagree on most things.”
Not on the most important subject, namely that peak everything will be the defining issue of the future.
“I see China rising for many years yet.”
Peak everything is a global phenomenon. Why oh why is China exempt from that? It is not.
“How much do you read about China that does NOT come thru MSM channels? Especially from the US.”
Hardly no MSM at all, not even Dutch, let alone US. The last time I watched CNN was in a Spanish hotel, while impatiently waiting for my wife to finish her business in the bathroom, so we could finally walk to the restaurant, watching Blitzer, Larry King, Jonathan Mann, Jon Stewart and the rest of the 2%, explaining the news to the lesser folks. Here btw is CNN’s Howard Kurtz (jewish) explaining why Israel lapdog Rupert Murdoch is wrong when he states the obvious.lol
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/19/opinion/kurtz-murdoch-tweets
“I see them buying up land, industry and resources all over Asia and in Africa, South America, etc. They even are buying in the US and there are millions of Chinese living there as well as in Europe.”
I looked it up, currently less than 1 million in Europe. Sure, China is and will be a great power, but no ‘century’.
“I see the EU splitting soon, probably caused by the crash of the Euro. Then I see resource wars between European countries. You are a group of tribes trying to be one, but you speak too many different languages and have too many long standing cultural differences and disagreements to ever meld into one.”
Why would the euro ‘crash’? The ECB is independent and not privatly owned, like the FED, and makes sure inflation stays within 2%/year. So far they did a good job. There is no potential for the euro to be ‘dumped’, for the simple reason that there are not that many around outside Europe.
Europe has no resources, so it is difficult to see wars over non-existing resources. Sucking up to Russia is more likely.
About the ‘tribal aspect’… the history of the US proves otherwise, where ‘European tribes’ merged peacefully. In fact Americans can pride themselves to be real ‘ethnic Europeans’, as the assimilation was rather successfull. About wars in Europe, if you ignore WW1 and WW2, which were both initiated by Britain, first to defend the interests of the empire against a rising Germany and second as a proxy for American/jewish interests (via that paid stooge Churchill), there has not been a serious war since Napoleon/Waterloo, except for the Franco-Prussian War, which preceded German unification. Britain is the only serious destabilizing factor in Europe, as it represents the interests of Anglosphere, not continental Europe. Britain should have been positioned 20 miles of the coast of Maine rather than France. The British youth however supports Europe by 2/3. The European project exists now for more than 50 years and the emergence/existence of large competing blocks will make sure that Europe will stay together.
“It only survives because the other Western countries are worse.”
It survives because of reserve currency status of the dollar, not because it is better than other western countries, it simply is not.
“Most of the world would like to see it die.”
That’s too harsh. Less domineering would be nice though.
Unlike Russia, Argentina or Iceland, the euro is backed by the strongest economy in the world. Airbus has dominated Boeing for 12 years, except last year (Dreamliner), renewables are implemented in record pace in Europe, dwarfing anything else in the world, Europe has 50% of the commercial aerospace business, it is the only place with a vast highspeed rail network. It is the location in the world with the largest awareness of the impending energy problems and the will to do something about it. Europe is not going down anytime soon, nor will it disintegrate, simply because it does not make sense. Maybe England (not Scotland.lol) will leave. Let them.
WhenTheEagleFlies on Tue, 5th Feb 2013 8:46 pm
A Chinese century? C’mon now. A country where cannibalism is alive(put “China cannibalism” into Google images, if you do not think so) and where cruelty reigns. There will be more revolution in China.
BillT on Wed, 6th Feb 2013 2:25 am
Whenthe…you see only the bullshit that the US propaganda machine (MSM) puts out. China is now the enemy so you are going to see nothing but negative BS like they are doing to Iran and did to all the other countries they raided. China is too big to take on directly and is still America’s banker.