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Page added on May 4, 2015

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Beneath Antarctica, a wonderland of oil awaits

A report in The New York Times published on Monday revealed that the Chinese are aggressively engaged in securing the country’s energy future overseas. The People’s Republic is courting Latin American governments, securing its ties to African strongmen, is building up a military presence in the South China Sea, and has sent hundreds of advisors to the Caribbean; all in pursuit of energy security.

One of the PRC’s latest targets is the frozen continent of Antarctica, where an international accord reached in 1959 prohibits mining and military activity. “But [Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to a south Australian port last autumn] was another sign that China is positioning itself to take advantage of the continent’s resource potential when the treaty expires in 2048,” The Times reported, “or in the event that it is ripped up before, Chinese and Australian experts say.”

And the stakes are high for China and every other nation interested in exploiting the resources beneath Antarctica. “If the accord does expire, Antarctica could become the next major source of hydrocarbons on earth. The region is believed to have an approximate 200 billion barrels of oil, in addition to being the largest single repository of fresh water on the planet,” Business insider reported.

That’s right. 200. Billion. Barrels of oil. And over 90 percent of the world’s freshwater ice mass.

The very existence of the southern continent undermines virtually every apocalyptic climate change argument ever made.

“The document, released Thursday, is a kind of road map of hazards meant to help U.S. intelligence agencies decide which of the world’s biggest problems to study most intensively over the next four years,” Foreign Policy reported last year. “Water shortages, as well as fierce competition for food and energy, will continue to bedevil leaders in the United States and abroad, the document concludes.”

But necessity is the mother of invention, and the imperative of having access to fresh water is the mother of all necessity.

As for the thoroughly debunked concept of “peak oil,” that theory fell out of favor when hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology revolutionized the energy exploitation industry. As a result of the discovery of a vast reserve of crude under Antarctica, that hypothesis should now be dead and buried. It is, however, instructive to revisit the doomsday predictions associated with that theory, too.

In 2005, The New York Times noted that American regularity agencies were warning that the irreversible depletion of the world’s oil reserves was imminent:

One of the starkest warnings came in a February report commissioned by the United States Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory. ”Because oil prices have been relatively high for the past decade, oil companies have conducted extensive exploration over that period, but their results have been disappointing,” stated the report, assembled by Science Applications International, a research company that works on security and energy issues. ”If recent trends hold, there is little reason to expect that exploration success will dramatically improve in the future. . . . The image is one of a world moving from a long period in which reserves additions were much greater than consumption to an era in which annual additions are falling increasingly short of annual consumption. This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production.”

In fact, the only argument that the self-described scientific community can muster in order to preserve the viability of these and other nightmare scenarios is by erecting still more nightmare scenarios about what would happen if these resources were exploited. Many will resent being held accountable for their predictions that never materialized, but those who claim they are purely empirical shouldn’t be spared from being exposed to the evidence against them. While the so-called scientific community will attempt to shame those who read their past work into keeping quiet about it, it would be irresponsible to fail to remind the most apocalyptic voices around us of their dubious track records.

hot air



43 Comments on "Beneath Antarctica, a wonderland of oil awaits"

  1. Apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:50 pm 

    Oxygen-starved ‘dead zones’ with no marine life up to 100-miles long discovered in the Atlantic Ocean

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/animal-life-at-risk-as-oxygenstarved-dead-zones-discovered-in-the-atlantic-ocean-10221983.html

  2. Apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:51 pm 

    Horribly bleak study sees ‘empty landscape’ as large herbivores vanish at startling rate

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/04/horribly-bleak-study-sees-empty-landscape-as-large-herbivores-vanish-at-startling-rate/

  3. Apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:54 pm 

    Lake Mead water levels, records continue to fall

    http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/water-environment/lake-mead-water-levels-records-continue-fall

  4. Apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:55 pm 

    California Drought Killed 12 Million Forest Trees Since Last Year

    http://www.kpbs.org/news/2015/may/04/california-drought-kills-12-million-forest-trees-l/

  5. Dredd on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:11 pm 

    There is a lot of “it” on Mars too.

    But, you know

    (The “Genes” of Culture In Civilizations).

  6. Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:11 pm 

    I think drilling in Antarctica makes sense. No one can see what happens there. Its empty. Not even any life there. No loss from disturbing the enviro-ment.

  7. dissident on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:16 pm 

    LOL. We need more CO2 in the atmosphere to melt Antarctica and get at yet more fossil fuels to produce yet more CO2.

    What a riot!

  8. Apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:19 pm 

    Its empty? No it’s not you fucking worm. That would be your brain and soul.

  9. rockman on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:19 pm 

    Old story…from Sept 2010:

    To date, few have seriously considered drilling for oil off the coast of Antarctica, for a couple of simple reasons. For one, the treaty that governs the continent says such exploration is off-limits until at least 2041. And who wants to risk floating a $1 billion-plus rig in a sea that is home to 20-mile-long mobile icebergs? But a combination of factors makes the seafloor around Antarctica tempting to oil drillers.

    First, think about where the seventh continent came from: It broke off many millions of years ago from the tips of South America and Africa, which are both rich in mineral deposits. Second, consider ocean warming. Warming air and sea temperatures dissipate more and more sea ice along the 1,000-mile Antarctic Peninsula, making drilling for oil slightly more practical with each austral summer.

    In 2006, Iranian oil guru Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari said oil prices would need to surpass $200 a barrel for drilling off Antarctica to make economic sense; not long after that speculation, prices peaked at $147. (The going rate today is just above $73.) As the world’s human population grows; so will pressure to find fossil fuels. Nowhere on the planet will be off limits forever.

    While the Antarctic Treaty, written in 1959 and amended in 1991, extended the provision against mineral exploration for 50 years, the agreement has never adequately addressed exactly who owns the seabed surrounding the continent. That future fight has been left to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III), which has suggested the seabed around Antarctica, is the “common heritage” of “all interested parties.”

    On more than 20 excursions to Antarctica’s high, cold interior and the Peninsula, I’ve visited a dozen science bases from as many countries. Every single one of them has had some kind of drilling going on, always in the name of science, to study climate history or geology. I’m sure they are doing just that. But they are also drilling to figure out how to penetrate all that ice just in case someone “accidentally” strikes oil.

    Who will be first, is a good question. The Chinese have recently announced a big new investment in Antarctica and may be the front-runner. On the surface, China’s spending on planes, helicopters and outfitting its station for year-round use falls in line with the treaty’s “for science only” mandate. The upgrades also match China’s emergence as a growing influence around the globe. The country’s new icebreaker will be able to carry 60 scientists and 8,000 tons of equipment, through five feet of ice. It expects to drill deeper than anyone has before, “through more than 1 million years of climate history.”

    But in an upcoming Asian Survey story titled “China’s Rise in Antarctica,” New Zealand researcher Anne-Marie Brady suggests, “Chinese-language polar-science discussions are dominated by debates about resources and how China might gain its share.” The Chinese government says of course it will be drilling at its newly retrofitted base, called Kunlun, but only for science. Yet its Antarctic program is a division of the State Oceanic Administration, which last week sent submersibles to the bottom of the South China Sea to claim its disputed seabed for the motherland.

    No one expects oil rigs anytime soon off the coast of Antarctica; I’m sure some U.S. administration in the near future will lighten up and allow drilling off Alaska. But as the planet’s human population gains on 9 billion—a number that should be reached right around the time the ban on mineral exploration in Antarctica is due to expire—who knows what havoc the future might bring to what is still the most pristine place on the planet.

  10. Davy on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:30 pm 

    Nary a peep from anyone here about the Chinese scavengers drooling over another ecosystem to destroy. If it was the Americans going down there all hell would break loose here on this site. Chinese are OK I guess because they screw the world from the back door instead of the front.

    In any case there ain’t gonna be any drillin goin on down in the Antarctic. We can’t even drill shales without going broke how the hell are we going to manage in the wonderful pristine Antarctica. More BAUtopian hopium of a new common to exploit. A new common to save us. Who is going to save us from us is what I would like to know.

  11. Plantagenet on Mon, 4th May 2015 9:58 pm 

    If the Chinese can build an artificial island in the middle of the south china sea to press their territorial claims, whats to stop them from making territorial claims in Antarctica?

  12. Keith_McClary on Mon, 4th May 2015 11:25 pm 

    “That’s right. 200. Billion. Barrels of oil.”

    I did a bit of googling, can’t find original source for that.

  13. clueless on Tue, 5th May 2015 12:38 am 

    DavyDelusional, On a comparative basis, China has been on earth for thousands of years compared to USA’s just a mere hundreds, and look how the americans botched the ecosystem. US ruined everything, it should be annihilated as soon as possible. Can’t wait.

  14. Adamc18 on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:17 am 

    Keith is correct – 200 billion barrels is in fact remarkably similar to the figure claimed to be under London’s Gatwick Airport just last month. It was a load of nonsense – and so is this article.
    By 2040 China will be battling to cope with rising sea levels, crashed ocean life and droughts, just like everyone else. They simply won’t have the time or money to continue with an activity which by then will all-too-obviously be destroying the planet.

  15. Northwest Resident on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:22 am 

    If there are substantial oil deposits that are financially viable in the Antarctic, they will find a way to get around the rules, and it won’t take long to do it.

    Nobody and no moral or ethical constraint stands in the way of big oil. Legal constraints many delay but do not deter big oil from exploiting profitable sources.

    Nony’s rule of thumb, “if it doesn’t directly affect me, and if it saves me a few bucks, and if I don’t have to look at it, then sure, go ahead and rape it”, is exactly what has lead the human race to the dire conundrum it now finds itself in. Too many Nony-like thinkers has become a huge problem for humanity and for planet earth.

  16. meld on Tue, 5th May 2015 3:34 am 

    The worse it gets the louder the calls for “progress” to continue will be. They are psychotic, and the best thing to do with people who are psychotic is to stay as far away as possible from them until the day you look out your window and see them twitching and dying in the street, then just give them a pleasant wave and draw the curtain.

  17. joe on Tue, 5th May 2015 3:57 am 

    200 billion? Sounds like allot. Even if it were twice that, the world still needs more to sustain 3% global growth needed for the ‘good times’ to return.
    2% puts us in line with global increase in money supply or ‘inflation’, thats why they need growth higher than inflation, bankers need profits. I thought the capitalists would have spotted that. Another pep talk to keep the masses from worrying until they can think of ‘somthing else’ to solve the energy/bankers problem.

  18. Steve O on Tue, 5th May 2015 8:57 am 

    The fact that this article comes from a website called “hot air” is very telling.

  19. JuanP on Tue, 5th May 2015 11:03 am 

    If it is at all possible, we will rape Antarctica just like we are raping the rest of the world. The laws mean nothing and they are not what is stopping us from drilling for oil or mining for minerals down there. The only reason we haven’t started raping Antarctica yet is there is no money in it, but if it ever becomes profitable we will. I hope Davy is right and we are never able to do it, not that I think it would make any difference either way to humans or life on Earth. IMO, we passed the point of no return decades or centuries ago.

  20. hiruitnguyse on Tue, 5th May 2015 11:33 am 

    That’s right. 200. Billion. Barrels of oil. Enough to supply. The Globe. 6.8 years. Only have to. Sink all coastal. Infrastructure. To Get. It. Assuming. All 200. Are gettable. And. Equivalent to. Current. Definitions. Of oil.

  21. Bob Owens on Tue, 5th May 2015 11:50 am 

    This is an absolutely terrible article without any redeeming value. Enough said.

  22. Dredd on Tue, 5th May 2015 11:57 am 

    Antarctica will destroy Petroleum Civilization before Petroleum Civilization destroys Antarctica (The Agnotology of Sea Level Rise Via Ice Melt, What Do You Mean – World Civilization? – 2).

  23. penury on Tue, 5th May 2015 12:08 pm 

    I have made up my mind. After reading this and several other articles lately I believe that everyone knows the end is near. The only reason to read this crap is to reinforce our own bias and supply more support (either plus or minus) for our own convictions. We all know that the current conditions on the planet will change and it will not be of benefit for humans. However, there are those who must believe that all change will be for the betterment of mankind or else their cognitive disconnect will cause great mental anguish. Humans will consume anything consumable, for that is the nature of the beast.

  24. hiruitnguyse on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:24 pm 

    Meanwhile…..http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2015/05/04/Another-rig-company-stumbles/1561430739883/

  25. hiruitnguyse on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:27 pm 

    Also….http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/05/why-the-powers-that-be-are-pushing-a-cashless-society.html

  26. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 2:05 pm 

    Paris 2015: Two degrees warming a ‘prescription for disaster’ says top climate scientist James Hansen

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/paris-2015-two-degrees-warming-a-prescription-for-disaster-says-top-climate-scientist-james-hansen-20150504-ggu33w.html?stb=fb

    James Hansen Climate scientist. If you think these physicists and atmospheric chemists sound dire you should listen to the biologists – many of them have already given up or are just going through the motions. I think a lot of climate scientists are just going through the motions. I know I am. I’m a programmed ape, I don’t know what else to do.

  27. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 2:36 pm 

    Too bad the higher sea level from a melting world will soon render those shiny new LNG terminals useless along with all the modern ports and connected infrastructure. Trillions of dollars will be gone – there’s your sunken costs. Just a couple more inches and the most vulnerable places will be abandon – fergetabout 2100
    ////////////////////////////////////////

    Polar meltdown sees us on an icy road to disaster

    The Antarctic’s glaciers are in retreat, risking a catastrophic rise in sea levels. Glacier expert Andy Smith is one of the team trying to prevent a meltdown by braving this frozen wasteland

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/04/polar-meltdown-icy-road-disaster-glaciers

  28. Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 2:37 pm 

    Ape man, that’s where I am at. It’s over lets throw in the towel and start doing mental hospice adjustments. I have 7yr olds I will have to break the news to in a few years. In the old days you told kids about the birds and the bees now I will be telling them about a future of death and suffering. That is a heart breaker for me.

  29. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 3:18 pm 

    Davy, it might be best to concentrate on your local world/farm/community. Kill the TV (if you have one) and kill or hide your computer with it’s connection to a sick world. Once your boys learn the 3 R’s there is no reason to be at any school. They really only exist to churn out skilled workers for the machine and it’s owners. Where would DARPA, the NSA and all the rest be without the education system and it’s STEM mantra? Working the land is honest and real. Just my two cents.

  30. Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 3:42 pm 

    Ape Man, well, when they can read, spell, and write decent. I don’t want them to end up like me so I best get them the solid basics. But I agree with your wisdom.

  31. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 4:32 pm 

    “I don’t want them to end up like me”
    That’s one of the reasons I never had any kids, Davy. Too many demon’s. By rights I should not even be alive. I was so drunk/drugged up and reckless until I was about 30…..I have actually had to be “brought back” a couple of times. What’s that saying about god looking out for fools, drunks and babies?

  32. Dredd on Tue, 5th May 2015 5:30 pm 

    Antarctica was warmer than much of the U.S.A. in late March:

    “Air temperatures reached record high levels at two Antarctic stations last week, setting a new mark for the warmest conditions ever measured anywhere on the continent. On March 23, at Argentina’s base Marambio, a temperature of 17.4° Celsius (63.3° Fahrenheit) was reached, surpassing a previous record set in 1961 at a nearby base, Esperanza. The old record was 17.1° Celsius (62.8° Fahrenheit). However, Esperanza quickly reclaimed the record a few hours later on March 24, reaching a temperature of 17.5° Celsius (63.5° Fahrenheit).”
    (Record warmth in Antarctica).

    I think that was the week that the High Priest of Denial (Sen. Inhofe) brought his toy snowball to work to prove global warming is a hoax.

    It would have melted in Antarctica at that time.

  33. Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 5:46 pm 

    Yea, Ape Man, I cringe sometimes thinking about the craziness of my youth. What is so sad it was part of the culture to be wild, crazy, drunk, and drugged. You know, Jim Morrison was a hero of my generation.

    Frig that today. We got some serious breaking on through to the other side in store and I don’t think we are going to make it.

  34. steve on Tue, 5th May 2015 5:56 pm 

    One thing this article fails to mention is that there is no infrastructure there..even if there is a trillion barrels there what would be the EROEI?
    Seems kinda crazy to even talk about….but then again it is amazing how long this crazy thing has been going on and even more amazing how many people have not figured it out yet.

  35. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 6:06 pm 

    Davy, I never found god or spirituality or any of that, but I did take the advice of my favorite band.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKfF0YkFtYg

  36. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 6:17 pm 

    Davy, Everything ends and everything goes extinct. Science confirmed it, but the ancients knew.

    ecclesiastes 3:1
    or
    Samsara from the Hindus
    or
    Pete Seeger’s interpretation as performed by the Byrds in 65

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ga_M5Zdn4

  37. Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 7:05 pm 

    Ape Man, try some Alan Watts 4X4. A really cool series of lectures from the 60’s by Alan Watts. What is really enjoyable is seeing how they did early documentaries.

    http://www.ioffer.com/i/alan-watts-collection-4×4-essential-zen-dvd-series-xtr-543494264

  38. redpill on Tue, 5th May 2015 8:01 pm 

    Hot Air indeed! Come 2040, if we’re mining anything there, it will be the fresh H2O or maybe penguin meat.

    Damn, that’s only 15yrs from now. But as far as the biosphere is concerned, it will be another 15yrs of 7+ billion of us doing things that would make a drunken abusive step-father blush.

    “Whatda ya mean I killed the oceans fisheries? I wasn’t THAT drunk.”

  39. rockdoc123 on Tue, 5th May 2015 8:32 pm 

    First of all the vast majority of Antarctica is subject to temperatures throughout much of the year at which rotating equipment (i.e. drilling rigs) cease to operate. Secondly the ice cover is thousands of feet thick in most places and subject to continual movement. Any hole you were capable of drilling and casing would likely be collapsed in a few months time. Thirdly the logistics are so formidable that oil would have to be worth far more than it’s all time high to make this worthwhile pursuing. Current geophysical technology is only capable of imaging the sub-ice in a gross fashion, not nearly enough resolution to be able to pick the best place to drill an exploration hole that had a reasonable chance of success.

  40. Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 9:06 pm 

    rockdoc123, not something most people understand. I have been on a job in northern Alberta in January where we had to stop rigging because it was to cold to use wire rope chokers (brittle) safely. And then there is today’s lax quality control.

    Exclusive: TransCanada Keystone 1 Pipeline Suffered Major Corrosion Only Two Years In Operation, 95% Worn In One Spot

    http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/04/30/exclusive-transcanada-keystone-1-pipeline-suffered-major-corrosion-only-two-years-operation-95-worn-one-section

  41. shortonoil on Wed, 6th May 2015 8:14 am 

    Petroleum prices hit their maximum affordable price level in the $90 to $100 range, and stayed there for about 3 years. They are now in a long term decline trend. In another three years this article will be as believable as Mother Goose, and the Three Bears. If the Chinese want to go, and look at Antarctica for oil it should be as entertaining as a tour of their many Ghost Cities. They can fraternize with the penguins, and learn all about the lovable Antarctic Turn. The only oil that is coming out of Antarctica is what someone brought with them. That probably cost them about $200 a gallon.

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org

  42. gdubya on Wed, 6th May 2015 9:00 am 

    RockDoc, you hit the spot, this piece is rot, a media blot

  43. nony on Wed, 6th May 2015 2:54 pm 

    Rockdoc thanks for coming to front pages. Appreciate your industry background and education.


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