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Page added on August 24, 2015
The Limits to Growth in the Soviet Union and in Russia: the story of a failure
Above, you can see the full recording of a 2012 lecture given in Moscow by Dennis Meadows; one of the authors of “The Limits to Growth” report of 1972. It is long, more than an hour, but – if you don’t have the time to watch all of it – I suggest that you go to minute 21 and watch Dennis Meadows showing this book.
It is titled “Soviet Union and Russia in the global system.” According to Meadows, in the 1980s, Viktor Gelovani, first author of the book, adapted to the Soviet Union the world model used for “The Limits to Growth” and he ran it; finding that the Soviet Union was going to collapse. Then, Meadows says “he went to the leadership of the country and he said, ‘my forecast shows that you don’t have any possibility. You have to change your policies.’ And the leader said, ‘no, we have another possibility: you can change your forecast'”
Meadows’ anecdote is basically confirmed by Rindzevičiūtė, who wrote an excellent article that tells the whole story. It turns out that it is not true that “The Limits to Growth” was ignored in the Soviet Union, as it could be the impression from the documents available in the West. The “Limits” study was translated into Russian, although it was distributed only to very limited circles (generating, by the way, a brisk black market, as Rindzeviciute describes at p. 6). Several Soviet scientists knew very well the study, they had contacts with its authors and a number of them made a considerable effort to warn the Union’s leadership that the system was going to collapse. They didn’t have much success, as Meadows says in his talk.
Theoretically, you could think that the Soviet leaders could have seen “The Limits to Growth” as a useful planning tool. In principle, they had ways to put into practice the recommendations obtainable from the models in order to avoid collapse. But that wasn’t the case. The reaction of the Soviet leadership was the same as it was in the West. Both the Soviet and the Western leaders were completely tied to the concept of “growth at all costs” and refractory to changes. So, the warning was ignored on both sides of the iron curtain.
Another, hugely interesting element of this story is how it shows that the Soviet Collapse was a systemic one; it was caused by the huge military and bureaucratic expenses that the production sector of the economy was becoming unable to bear. In other words, it seems clear that it wasn’t caused by Mishka Mecheny, (Gorbachev the madman) or by an evil plot of the Western secret services (although both may have played a role). On the whole, we have here a remarkable confirmation of the predictive power of world modeling: in the 1980s, it succeeded in predicting the collapse of a large chunk of the world’s economy. Another, even larger, chunk is collapsing right now.
One more interesting point comes from examining whether the present Russian leadership learned something from the experience of the old Soviet Union. Apparently not; because today there doesn’t seem to exist a serious debate on mineral depletion in Russia. Most Russians seem to be convinced that their mineral resources are abundant and that they can tap them at will for the foreseeable future. Hence, depletion is not a problem they should be worried about.
Meadows’ talk confirms this impression. Even without paying attention to what Meadows says, do look at the faces and the body postures of the young people in the audience – they are occasionally shown in the movie. I can tell you that, over the years I have developed a certain degree of telepathic capabilities in understanding the feelings of my audience. And I can tell you that most of the students listening to Meadows completely disbelieve him – or so it seems to me (also a Russian friend of mine said that this was “the most boring talk she had ever heard”). Note also the silly and marginal questions the students asked Meadows at the end of the talk. He told them about the upcoming end of the world and they ask him if it is convenient to invest in water producing companies… Come on!
But the lack of understanding about the limits to growth in Russia is really nothing special. It is the rule all over the world. In addition, Russia, right now, is in full emergency mode and the main priority for the Russians is to save their economy from external attacks. They can’t be blamed if they don’t have (and, possibly, they don’t need), the group of Cassandras we have in the West, white haired people who keep telling of dark and dire things to come and whom no one listens to.
With or without Cassandras, the situation in Russia may not be so bad. Dmitry Orlov has described how the Soviet economy was much better suited than the Western market economy to adapt and survive to the kind of systemic collapse described by “The Limits to Growth.” The same considerations may apply to the present Russian economy. So, the future is, as always opaque, but, if you ask me which will be the next economy to collapse, I wouldn’t bet it will be Russia.
Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi
16 Comments on "The Limits to Growth in the Soviet Union and in Russia: the story of a failure"
Makati1 on Mon, 24th Aug 2015 8:02 pm
At least Ugo admits that they are not as bad off as Western press want us to believe(Ditto for China). The collapse of the USSR was caused by a weapons race started by the US and other factors out of Russian control, not bad management or stupidity. Well, maybe with the exception of Yeltsin.
They still have huge natural resources that the West wants because the West doesn’t have excess resources anymore. Ditto for Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq’s resources. Russia will STILL have the resources to survive and thrive(Plus about 8,000 nukes). They have food, energy, and citizens that know how to live with the bare necessities when necessary. They are not generations away from such experiences, just decades so the memories and skills are intact.
Hypocritical America still needs to beg a ride on a Russian shuttle to get men and materials to the space station. And looking at the blood on the Stock Market Floor today, the Crony Capitalist West may be history soon. The Limbo Market is dancing. How low can it go? DOW 5,000 by Christmas? LMAO
Davy on Mon, 24th Aug 2015 8:36 pm
Mak is at it again rewriting history and fantasizing about the superhuman Russian people. The world has been dumbed down and made fat with globalism the world over. No country is immune.
Mak, is just pushing his agenda of bad USA good anything that is not USA. This is a distortion of the truth and a daily lie. At this point in time what we need is truth and honesty not a schmuck preaching an agenda of hate and resentment for his 65 years of failure in America.
tahoe1780 on Mon, 24th Aug 2015 8:49 pm
“$280 billion dollars to lift Russian oil” 23:18 Anybody see estimates of how much oil it will take to lift the world’s remaining oil?
Rodster on Mon, 24th Aug 2015 9:03 pm
It doesn’t matter whether you live in the East or West. We are witnessing the collapse of everything. No one escapes this time. The same stupid ideas started in the West on how to ruin a nation along with its banking, financial and economic systems have taken hold in the East because they know, no other way. Everyone is doing the same shit as everyone else.
HARM on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 12:26 am
“And I can tell you that most of the students listening to Meadows completely disbelieve him – or so it seems to me (also a Russian friend of mine said that this was “the most boring talk she had ever heard”).”
Good to know that endemic myopia and refusal to face reality are not uniquely American traits.
GregT on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 1:16 am
“Good to know that endemic myopia and refusal to face reality are not uniquely American traits.”
Russian exceptionalism is also alive and well.
BC on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 4:03 am
@Rodster: “The same stupid ideas started in the West on how to ruin a nation along with its banking, financial and economic systems have taken hold in the East because they know, no other way. Everyone is doing the same shit as everyone else.”
Second that, brother.
radon1 on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 6:55 am
Soviet Union collapsed for economic reasons, not because of the resource depletion. Russia is and was a resource-excessive country.
Also, Mishka Mecheny means Mishka the Marked, a reference to the mark on his head.
Davy on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 7:41 am
Radon said “Russia is and was a resource-excessive country.” Resources do not matter without an economy that cannot productively harness those resources. This is why Russia will not fare much better than other resource poor economies in a global system in decline. Commodities are deflating and with it economies built upon high commodity prices. This is similar to economies built upon low commodity prices that import during high commodity cycles. The US is a prime example of an economy built on cheap energy.
Russia has many positives in a collapsing global economy but they will not prosper. These resources are enough to cushion the fall but Russia also has a huge land mass with problems on every border. Their population is in decline for the wrong reasons. A declining population and the adjustment to that decline is a key to adapting to this descent if one can manage the migrants. I see Europe in this category. It comes down to just as globalism utilized comparative advantages it will also extract pain from comparative disadvantages as globalism decays.
Russia will not fare well with commodities deflating. There are no countries that will not be touched by global decay. That is the nature of our system today. Interconnected economies locked in efficient non resilient production and distribution are all vulnerable. The system itself that all delocalized locals depend upon for support is decaying and with it “all” of our locals face dangers. Location is a key. If you are in a dangerous location revaluate your future. If you can’t move prepare for a downturn that could get ugly.
ghung on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 9:14 am
As a 16 year old, I studied for a summer in the Soviet Union, and it was evident, even to one so young, that the society was in the process of collapsing economically. The article concludes:
“Dmitry Orlov has described how the Soviet economy was much better suited than the Western market economy to adapt and survive to the kind of systemic collapse described by “The Limits to Growth.”
I was witness to this fact in that a fairly well established gray/black market was evident everywhere, especially for things like clothing and western cigarettes. Foreign currencies were especially preferred.
The west, especially the US is woefully and officially financialised with no well-established underlying plan B for the exchange of goods and services. With the exception of a few areas where barter, trade, exchange of labor, etc. may be occurring on a small scale, we’re all in for cash and plastic, and the citizens, by-and-large, are not practiced at, or familiar with, any viable alternatives to official methods of exchange; certainly no alternatives to our way of living. All in for the consumer society.
The learning curve will be steep and messy.
TurningPoint_Sustainability on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 9:53 am
Russia will be the next economy to collapse? Before Ukraine? I doubt it….
BobInget on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 10:35 am
There’ more then one ‘red diaper baby’ posting here.
BC on Tue, 25th Aug 2015 3:37 pm
Bob, there’s going to be a BIG cleaning or waste-disposal bill to pay for the HUGE pile of soiled red-white-and-blue-baby diapers. 🙂
Makati1 on Wed, 26th Aug 2015 12:03 am
Ghung, was that before or after the Berlin Wall came down and it was run by alcoholic Washington sock puppets?
A totally different world today. Now it has a strong leader who is putting Russia in the front of the pack in more ways than US MSM propaganda mill will tell you. But then, Putin has the brass ones to give the US the finger when appropriate. And ~1,600 nukes to back him up. Most of which could be hitting the US if he desired.
Davy on Wed, 26th Aug 2015 2:59 am
Yea, Mak, looks great for Russians currently. Great leader of a mafia oligarch nation that Don Puutt. Putin is the richest leader in the world likely the richest man if you amortized his connections being a dictator of the mafia oligarchs. That says enough about Putin. He is a corrupt megalomaniac that came from nothing then through deceit, murder, and corruption rose to the top of a corrupt nation. That’s impressive Makster.
BTW, if you look at emerging markets currently Russia is not doing well at all. Not the story you were painting a few months ago. Russia was supposed to quickly wipe out the completion then rise with your other fallen super hero China. I am in so much enjoyment watching your anti-American pro-Russian/China agenda fall on its ass. American is a mess and going down. The American culture is retard but don’t try to blow your daily agenda up my ass with dumb ass countries that are falling like flies.
onlooker on Wed, 26th Aug 2015 5:54 am
Isn’t that how every country pretty much as conducted their affairs. Disregarding the warnings coming from Casandras and from the environment. Nothing new here. I do cite one that is striking Dr. James Hanson a foremost climate/planetary scientist went before the US congress in 1988 to warn them of climate change. Nothing at all came of that.