The End of Peak Oil

Peak oil has been an alarmist catch phrase for so long that many of us simply assume that oil production has in fact peaked and we’re well on the way to running out of the world’s favorite fossil fuel. Not so, according to this story in the Wall Street Journal:

Have we beaten “peak oil”?

For decades, it has been a doomsday scenario looming large in the popular imagination: The world’s oil production tops out and then starts an inexorable decline—sending costs soaring and forcing nations to lay down strict rationing programs and battle for shrinking reserves.

U.S. oil production did peak in the 1970s and sank for decades after, exactly as the theory predicted. But then it did something the theory didn’t predict: It started rising again in 2009, and hasn’t stopped, thanks to a leap forward in oil-field technology.

To the peak-oil adherents, this is just a respite, and decline is inevitable. But a growing tide of oil-industry experts argue that peak oil looks at the situation in the wrong way. The real constraints we face are technological and economic, they say. We’re limited not by the amount of oil in the ground, but by how inventive we are about reaching new sources of fuel and how much we’re willing to pay to get at it.

“Technology moves so quickly today that any looming resource constraint will be nothing more than a blip,” says petroleum economist Phil Verleger. “We adjust.”

Whether peak oil exists is more than just a point of intellectual debate—although it certainly has proved to be a heated and divisive one for decades. The question—and how we think about it—also has a big potential impact for governments, oil producers and ordinary people across the globe, all of whom depend on the vagaries of oil production and would be threatened by soaring costs and shortages.

The peak-oil boosters argue that instead of plowing money into new ways to find oil, we should be conserving what we have and investing in alternative energy sources so that we’re prepared when supplies run low and costs soar. Most of the naysayers agree that we shouldn’t stick with oil forever. But they think it’s wiser to invest in technology to keep expanding the available supply, until it gets too expensive to do so. At that point, they’re confident, we’ll be able to come up with an economical alternative…

[continues in the Wall Street Journal]

– See more at: http://disinfo.com/2014/09/end-peak-oil/#sthash.7MHpyAqM.dpuf

55 Comments on "The End of Peak Oil"

Financier43 on Wed, 1st Oct 2014 7:51 pm 



I’m rather surprised how some of the regular posters have jumped all over poaecdotcom regarding his $1000 a barrel oil statement. He was obviously speaking figuratively but he had a strong argument.

BarleySinger on Wed, 1st Oct 2014 7:52 pm 



>>What is 3+ years of hard human labor in a portable liquid worth ?

I think you are forgetting that with over 7 billion people, there are OTHER sell-able assets than oil which can generate work. As the cost of oil goes up, the cost of human flesh becomes more viable. There are 27 million slaves on the earth right now (including a lot in the USA) and it is illegal everywhere.

So how much does it cost right now to buy a person? Roughly $100- $120 USD.

** OTHER SLAVE ENERGY ECONOMIES **

Rome was built on the ENERGY ECONOMY of slaves. It was an economy with a constant increase in consumption, and it had leaders with no ethical centers.

Most of the Roman slaves were from conquered peoples but some were just people who had bad money troubles or were minor criminals (they executed the dangerous ones). If you were in debt, or stole to survive… then they just sold you. The profits gave Rome some income and it also kept the empire in WORK (JOULES).

The empire requires a lot of energy to exist. The fact is that low quality food can be converted to BTUs if you have open slavery.

In Rome slaves were a necessity becasue they were their equivalent of machinery. Most slaves were conquered people. When Rome conquered a location they would enslave a lot of the population. Most of the opposing soldiers were sent to work in to minds until they dies. The Roman military needed metals (swords an armor) to keep conquering more peoples…who they would then enslave & send off to the mines to work until they died.

Slaves were disposable (just like barrels of oil) except that slaves make more slaves. Ff you GIVE AWAY bread so that the poorest keep breeding instead of dying – and you keep most of the population poor enough that they MUST do illegal things to survive, you would have a constant supply of low level criminals to enslave along with your newly conquered peoples.

Slaves were the expendable asset of the Roman energy economy.

*** LOOK AT TODAY ***

Right now there are more slaves on planet earth than at any other time. Slavery is a 32 billion dollar industry.

Every bad economic hit increases the profits and the number of slaves. The more displaced people you have the more slaves you have too. Wide spread economic disruption is a big contributor for this (with thanks to the “G#” nations and their leaders who see a “one size fits” model for how everyone must live).

Prohibition increase slavery too. Any large illegal economy will use slaves. Today both drugs and prostitution use a lot of slaves & this won’t decrease unless they are legalized and regulated…. which means that they “guardians of public morality” are creating an environment ripe for slavery.

In the USA RIGHT NOW *any* occupation that pays badly and has bad working conditions has slaves in it.

Slaves have been found processing food for US supermarkets.

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jun/10/supermarket-prawns-thailand-produced-slave-labour

The truth is the USA never completely stopped having slaves (read the link – really – read it).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/08/14/slavery-legal-exception-prisoners-drugs-reform-column/14086227/

The “Punishment Clause” in the 13th amendment lets the state essentially compel people to work as if they were property (and they can’t just leave).

In the early days just after the emancipation proclamation, this clause was used to continue with slavery as if it had never stopped (both in the north and the south).

If you were poor, unemployed (or looked like it) – most especially if you were ‘not white enough’ you could very easily be convicted of a very minor offense (vagrancy, being a public nuisance) and go straight to a prison where they would then put you to work for local businesses and simply never ‘remember’ to release you.

This occurred quite openly in some areas, even in the 1970s. Aside from “forgetting” to release their slaves at the end of a sentence (a period of time that could be extended for imaginary infractions) it was all perfect legal and still is right now.

NOW, add in a world where oil is scarce and expensive. Where the 3+ years of human labor that a single barrel of processed crude is worth… cannot be had?

*** TODAY’S UNETHICAL LEADERS ***

Today’s politicians and corporate leaders would happily engage in forms of ‘soft slavery’ if their voters let them get away with it. Don’t think so? How many states put back in laws that let states make prisoner work for no (or miniscule) payment? And they were LIKED for doing this.

Also what are they like as people?

Modern analysis of the heads of corporations and powerful politicians shows they score very high in psychopathic traits. Psychopaths are the same same sorts of people who were the murdering robber barons of the past.

Psychpaths run feudal societies – which are often based on SLAVERY. Our world leaders are often psychopaths.

In a world where the most powerful people have no ethical center, are compulsive about getting and keeping power – – if there WAS a oil collapse and they felt that their power was threatened – – what would they do to anyone who refused to cave in to a new wave of hard line government control (fascism). Why not turn them into some of those missing BTU’s?

poaecdotcom on Wed, 1st Oct 2014 11:12 pm 



Regular posters tend to close ranks on boards like these, its all good.

I will say that I have enjoyed many a post from all those that came out swinging and no harm done!! I am a big boy, its all good!

I’ll be back!

keith on Wed, 1st Oct 2014 11:14 pm 



I agree, $1000/barrel is a cheap price for those who can afford it. Peak oil has always been present in society for those who could not pay the cost. It’s a game of musical chairs, only the elite will hear the music soon. We are witnessing the continuous halving of society. Right now the lower middle is getting the boots, the middle middle, then the upper. When does revolution spark?

Davy on Thu, 2nd Oct 2014 5:43 am 



Barley, Slavery will be a feature of the future. We will go primitive soon and slavery has always been a part of human societies even during are latest enlightened period. The loss of the power of FF in our local economies will bring back animal power and human power. Human power is in surplus and will be utilized.