Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on July 11, 2018

Bookmark and Share

James Howard Kunstler: The “coming” collapse? We’ve been collapsing since 2005.

General Ideas

I suppose many who think about the prospect of economic collapse imagine something like a Death Star implosion that simply obliterates the normal doings of daily life overnight, leaving everybody in a short, nasty, brutish, Hobbesian free-for-all that dumps the survivors in a replay of the Stone Age — without the consolation of golden ages yet to come that we had the first time around.

Financialization money meltdownThe collapse of our techno-industrial set-up has actually been going on for some time, insidiously and corrosively, without shattering the scaffolds of seeming normality, just stealthily undermining them. I’d date the onset of it to about 2005 when the world unknowingly crossed an invisible border into the terra incognita of peak oil, by which, of course, I mean oil that societies could no longer afford to pull out of the ground. It’s one thing to have an abundance of really cheap energy, like oil was in 1955. But when the supply starts to get sketchy, and what’s left can only be obtained at an economic loss, the system goes quietly insane.

In the event, popular beliefs and behavior have turned really strange. We do things that are patently self-destructive, rationalize them with doctrines and policies that don’t add up, and then garnish them with wishful fantasies that offer hypothetical happy endings to plot lines that do not really tend in a rosy direction. The techno-narcissistic nonsense reverberating through the echo-chambers of business, media, and government aims to furnish that nostrum called “hope” to a nation that simply won’t admit darker outcomes to the terrible limits facing humanity.

Thus, we have the Tesla saga of electric motoring to save the day for our vaunted way of life (i.e. the landscape as demolition derby), the absurd proposals to colonize distant, arid, frigid, and airless Mars as a cure for ruining this watery blue planet ideally suited for our life-form, and the inane “singularity” narratives that propose to replace grubby material human life with a crypto-gnostic data cloud of never-ending cosmic orgasm. The psychological desperation is obvious. Apparently, there are moments in history when flying up your own butt-hole is the most comforting available option.

I expect the collapse to pick up more momentum as we turn the corner around summer. The system that we have most willfully abused and perverted is finance. This monster that so many observers call “capitalism” is just a set of methods for managing surplus wealth — the catch being that nothing nearly this complex has ever been seen before in history and is a pure product of the 200-year-long industrial orgy driven by fossil fuels. That is, the world never before accumulated so much surplus wealth in such a short span of time. We commonly refer to this dynamic as “growth.” When that growth, as expressed in modern GDP terms, slowed dramatically after 2005, we launched an array of clever mechanisms to keep faking it for a while. Racking up immense debt was our way of faking it. If you can’t cover your costs in the present, just borrow from the future. Unfortunately, that works only as as long as there’s some reasonable expectation that debt can be paid back. We’re so far beyond that now, it’s not funny. And that realization alone will destroy the bond markets and anything related to and dependent on their operations to function.

This is a broad outline to the coming end of the Trump miracle economy. It was the after effects of the previous debt blowup — the phony-baloney mortgage bond market in 2008 — that mortally wounded the American middle class and put Donald Trump in the White House. His base is correct to feel swindled. That is exactly what happened to them, and the beat goes on now with securitized sub-prime auto loans. Throw in the horrific burdens of unpayable and non-dischargable college loans that will ruin millions of lives and pricey health insurance with $5000 deductibles and you have a  recipe for a complete loss of faith in the system.

The next debt blowup will be the end of Mr. Trump’s improbable credibility. It may also be the beginning of serious difficulty in being able to get many of the goods of daily life, because the producers of things will be very unsure of getting paid on delivery of just about anything. A freeze up of short-term lending would quickly lead to empty WalMart shelves and “no gas” signs at the filling  stations. That’s when collapse finally goes kinetic, and becomes something more than just bad feelings and inane ideas.

redgreenandblue



86 Comments on "James Howard Kunstler: The “coming” collapse? We’ve been collapsing since 2005."

  1. Makati1 on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 5:44 pm 

    “The collapse of our techno-industrial set-up has actually been going on for some time, insidiously and corrosively, without shattering the scaffolds of seeming normality, just stealthily undermining them.”

    Well said! I would say it started about 1971 when Nixon took the Us off of the hold standard and started printing faux money. It has been down hill ever since. Starting slowly but now becoming blatantly obvious. Cliff or bumpy slide down? We shall see.

  2. Makati1 on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 5:45 pm 

    …off the gold standard…

  3. Makati1 on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 6:21 pm 

    “Just 18 years ago, America’s five largest corporations were companies that provided essential goods and services – ExxonMobil, General Electric, Ford, General Motors, and Walmart.

    Now, the five largest corporations all truck in data: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, and Facebook.

    And they are using this data – in collusion with the feds – to create a Deep State paradise.”

    https://bonnerandpartners.com/were-living-in-a-deep-state-paradise/

    ““But what do I have to fear,” asks the good citizen? “I don’t do anything wrong. I have nothing to hide.” Totally brainwashed! LMAO

  4. MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 6:38 pm 

    Madkat

    You better watch out for those black helicopters!

  5. Makati1 on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 6:46 pm 

    Forgot to take your meds today MM?

  6. Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 6:52 pm 

    The same clown who told us “Y2K will rock your world” yammers like the failed ETP theory that societies can’t afford to pump plentiful oil.

    And people keep paying him to babble.

  7. Anonymouse1 on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 8:19 pm 

    The exceptionlturd never takes his meds Mak. We’ve all been wishing he would, but, instead, he prefers to act out his madness via sock puppetry, and an ever deepening spiral of delusions to go along with it. At this point, he might even think ‘mushmind’ here, is a distinct, quasi-organic life-form, what with the ‘arguments’ he stages from time to time with him.

  8. Roger on Wed, 11th Jul 2018 9:00 pm 

    “Well said! I would say it started about 1971 when Nixon took the Us off of the gold standard and started printing faux money.”

    And I would have agreed with you twenty years ago. Now, I realize that event (though key in financial terms) is merely a tree in the forest.

    The real question is why the US willingly defaulted on its obligations…and implemented a corrupt unit of account (“currency”) throughout the world? Here’s a clue…Laodicea.

    As pertinent a question is why doesn’t anyone understand…or care that we don’t have a gold standard (“honest” money, if you will). Here’s another clue…take the red pill.

  9. Cloggie on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:20 am 

    “We have been collapsing since 2005” is a contradictio in termini. Collapse happens suddenly, not during a period of time. For the latter case “decline” is the propper term.

    Kunstler, Heinberg and many on this board refuse to admit that they were plain wrong about the “end of industrial civilization” due to peak oil supply.

    Peak oil supply is postponed and meanwhile several countries are proving that a society can run very well on ever larger shares of renewable energy.

    But Kunstler c.s. are too old to learn a new trade or develop a new world view and prefer to “wait for Goddot”.

    Tragi-comical.

  10. Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:25 am 

    If you have not read this, I suggest that you do, at this site or its originator.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-10/new-world-order-brought-you-global-industrial-deep-state

    “We are already experiencing fascism, American-style….Not with jackboots and salutes, as Robert Kagan of the Brookings Institution notes, “but with a television huckster, a phony billionaire, a textbook egomaniac ‘tapping into’ popular resentments and insecurities, and with an entire national political party — out of ambition or blind party loyalty, or simply out of fear — falling into line behind him.”…

    It is as yet unclear whether the American Police State answers to the Global-Industrial Deep State, or whether the Global-Industrial Deep State merely empowers the American Police State. However, there is no denying the extent to which they are intricately and symbiotically enmeshed and interlocked. This marriage of governmental and corporate interests is the very definition of fascism….”

    Read on at the above site and feel your chains weighing you down.

  11. Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:32 am 

    Cloggie, YOU are the one who is unable to adjust to the reality that the West is collapsing, not growing. Not the names you just posted. Are you too old and set in your ways to entertain anything that pricks your balloon?

    From one old man to another, open your mind and eyes to reality, not some renewables/techie/Us as a colony of the EU, dream. It ain’t going to happen. Denial is only closing your mind to options, not helping you plan a future in the world unfolding.

  12. Dooma on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:56 am 

    “Greg and Madkat you can easily tell never went to college”..

    You arrogant little cunt of a kid. I am so glad that I live in a country where you can be a tradesperson and still make six figures. Avoiding the polished debt scam system of shaming Americans into the lie that if they don’t spend a king’s ransom attending to college, you might as well beg.

    A complete pile of shit just like the American education standard and the pay after graduating are both a cruel joke.

    Come for a visit and say that (college comment) to most tradesmen and they will knock your fucking teeth out. What a smarmy comment to make.

    I guess mommy and daddy paid for yours. Or did your mom fuck strangers on webcam for cash?

  13. Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:48 am 

    Bam! Pow! Hit him again Dooma! That worthless dog turd is an arrogant son-of-a-bitch that a will get his teeth knocked out some day.

  14. Davy on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:52 am 

    Aren’t your ferocious 3rd world. Dumba is a loudmouth buffoon that drops in when he wants to kick the dog of anti-Americanism. You both are disgusting and contribute to background noise here.

  15. Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:59 am 

    Davy, the “background noise”is the gas spewing from your orifices as you support your baby killing government, while you pretend to be someone intelligent. Go fuck your goats Davy. That’s all you are good for, loser.

    I can get down and dirty just like you only I laugh at your attempts while mine frustrates the shit out of you. You know you cannot hit me and it is driving you crazy.

    No, you are already there, delusionist. It is only a matter of time before they put you away. OR, you go “postal”.

  16. Theedrich on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:59 am 

    Good:  JFK corrected “incognito” to “incognita.”  It shows that he is a man concerned with accuracy, a fact which bolsters the rest of his arguments.  In particular, he sees what the increasingly wobbly financial system has in store for the world as a result of the pervasive corruption, parasitism and Tainteresque complexification in our planetary Petri dish.

  17. Davy on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 6:11 am 

    “How Greenland Melt Can Kick off A Warm “Ill Wind” Near Antarctica”
    https://tinyurl.com/yc6fy4fu

    “Sixteen thousand years ago, Greenland melt set off a cascade of impacts to the world ocean and atmosphere that led to the dredging of carbon rich waters from deep below the Pacific surface. These waters then disgorged enough carbon into the atmosphere to ultimately raise CO2 levels by 40 parts per million.”

    “It’s an interesting bit of science. But it has a good degree of relevance to the present day. That’s because Greenland is again melting greater volumes of water into the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic is again cooling. And the Southern Ocean winds are again being driven south as they strengthen.”

    “the Southern Ocean has already sequestered 10 percent of carbon emitted by humans. If that sequestration halts and then reverses, then the rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation, even if emissions stay stable, will rise by about 0.2 to 0.4 ppm per year.”

  18. Theedrich on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 6:13 am 

    Hate to do this, but “contradictio in termini” should be “contradictio in terminis” (dative plural after the preposition “in”), meaning an oxymoron.  “Termini” is genitive singular (“of a term”) or nominative plural (“the terms”), and does not fit here after “in.”

  19. Antius on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 6:21 am 

    Cloggie wrote: ““We have been collapsing since 2005” is a contradictio in termini. Collapse happens suddenly, not during a period of time. For the latter case “decline” is the propper term.”

    Agreed. John Michael Greer wrote a good essay entitled ‘the Long Road Down’ that explored the psychology behind those that place their faith either in ‘Business as Usual’ or sudden collapse. The idea of decline does not appeal to either group of people, but is far more likely in a world with a complex international order based upon a slowly depleting resource base. The basic structure of society continues, but children end up being poorer than their parents. Sudden discontinuities may yet occur due to political upheavals as systematic stress continues to build. This has already happened in Venezuela and to a limited extent in the US, but is not broadly evident at present.

    “Kunstler, Heinberg and many on this board refuse to admit that they were plain wrong about the “end of industrial civilization” due to peak oil supply.”

    Not sure they were plain wrong. Everyone had their own expectations over what was going to happen over the next ten years. Most people understood that we were dealing with a peak in available supply, rather than a sudden drop, and deteriorating economics thereafter. Men like Defeyes and Campbell, expected a bumpy plateau, with gradually increasing costs, followed by a decline in liquid volumes. That looks a lot like what has actually happened. I don’t know how many people were actually expecting a ‘Walking Dead’ zombie-apocalypse type scenario. The tight oil revolution took a lot of people by surprise, because they hadn’t anticipated such a long period of virtually zero interest rates, largely because it had never happened before. But tight oil and horizontal drilling aren’t new. As we have noted many times before on this board, the rapid growth of tight oil production has occurred due to cheap money, which is burning tomorrow for the sake of today. This is something that condemns us to a future of fiat currency failures and declining real incomes. The future will look more like Soylent Green than Walking Dead. I don’t think this proves the ‘Peak Oil Doomers’ wrong; it is pretty much exactly what they were predicting. There wasn’t a dramatic discontinuity that leads to a road warrior future. But for every country in Western Europe except Germany, which has managed to keep living standards static, real prosperity has declined about 10% since 2005. People see it and they feel it and the threat of revolution is growing.

    “Peak oil supply is postponed and meanwhile several countries are proving that a society can run very well on ever larger shares of renewable energy.
    But Kunstler c.s. are too old to learn a new trade or develop a new world view and prefer to “wait for Goddot””

    Peak oil supply was postponed thanks to an enormous increase in debt. Not something that can continue for very much longer and something that has damaged our ability to mitigate the next crisis.

    We have discussed ‘renewables’ on this board many times before. I am disappointed that you never seem to take much away from our lengthy discussions. Renewable energy penetration is very geographically specific. Countries with large hydropower resources have generally made use of them and this has as you say, been beneficial in displacing fossil use at least in the electricity sector. But these resources are limited, location specific and exploiting them comes with environmental costs. They provide some 16% of global electricity supply and a smaller portion of total energy.

    Most countries make limited use of biomass for heating and electricity production; this is not a new thing and there are hard limits to how much more it can be depended upon without conflicting with food supply or inflicting environmental damage on forests and other ecosystems.

    In many countries, wind and solar have made modest contributions to electricity supply. By modest, I mean up to one-third of end use consumption, but more typically, less than 10%. Solar, wind, geothermal and biomass provided 6.3% of global electricity in 2014. The first two have made significant contribution to European electricity supply. This has not generally reduced costs in any meaningful way, because these energy sources need additional infrastructure, like backup power and storage plants, to produce load following supply. It is possible that they could produce a larger share of our energy in the future, but this will come at the expense of either much higher costs, due to the need for energy storage, or a different way of life as society adapts to intermittent supply with entirely different economic and social arrangements. In short, “a society can run very well on ever larger shares of renewable energy” only if that society can adapt to higher energy costs and a very different way of living, in which people adjust consumption to an intermittent supply. That doesn’t appear to be happening so far and high energy costs are already inflicting systematic stresses that threaten to bring economic collapse. In short, ‘renewables’ are not a magic bullet solution to the problems resulting from the declining EROI of fossil fuels.

  20. MASTERMIND on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 7:20 am 

    Clogg

    Renewable’s cant replace oil, you dumbshit..Renewable s produce electricity and oil is used for transportation..

    You are energy illiterate and peak oil ignorant..

  21. MASTERMIND on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 7:25 am 

    Dooma

    I appreciate people like you, the ones who clean my toilet when its clogged up from me taking too big of shit..

  22. MASTERMIND on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 7:29 am 

    Clogg

    Kunt and Heinberg were just about a decade to early about their peak oil predictions..oh well, most great visionaries usually are..

    Is The World Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf

  23. fmr-paultard on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 7:59 am 

    hey aswang i would never live in a third world country there are a dirth of supertards

    I want safe electricity thanks very much

    https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d19edf1dfd946fc080d17404faf22d50-c

  24. fmr-paultard on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 8:10 am 

    aswang there’s a big history of canibalism in the phils. looking at the rat nest of unsafe electricity you telling me it’s easier to maintain in case of collapse?

    i don’t think so. supertards system is easier to maintain. when i have brownouts supertards fix it in an hour or so.

  25. fmr-paultard on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 8:12 am 

    if PBBM so advanced how come our supertards developed fastest supercomputer? how come russian military equipment failed to perform? how come chinese guys keep stealing supertards technology?

    supertards figured out to land f35 on light carriers.

    personally i’m skeptical of f35 though.

  26. JuanP on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 9:15 am 

    Delusional Davy “Dumba is a loudmouth buffoon that drops in when he wants to kick the dog of anti-Americanism. You both are disgusting and contribute to background noise here.”
    The board’s exceptional bully is “neutering anti-Americans, moderating the forum, and bringing balance to the discussion” again. What would this board be without him? LOL!

  27. Antius on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 9:25 am 

    I dislike the cornucopianism that surrounds renewable energy. Many idealistic people advocate the large scale expansion of wind and solar power without a good understanding of what it really would mean to society and themselves; the problems it would create and any notion of how to solve them. It has become the ultimate piece of techno virtue signalling for the left-leaning socialist.

    This site provides an aggregate wind generation chart for 35 wind farms in Australia for August 2015. It gives a good idea as to what we can expect from intermittent renewable sources as the world begins to run low on fossil fuels.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/08/wind-energy-all-on-or-all-off-across-the-national-grid-in-australia/

    You might think that it would be a simple matter to even out these fluctuations using a mixture of back-up and storage. The problem is that back-up plants have capital and operating costs and consume fuel; and storage plants have capital and operating costs and have energy losses. That means you will need to pay extra, in many cases a lot extra, to replicate a baseload power supply from these sources. At present, relatively little storage capacity is being built and ultimately, gas turbines will face fuel shortages as natural gas supplies run low and the supply lines delivering it become unreliable. So I think a realistic outcome is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_blackout

    When a grid manager has more demand than he has capacity, the solution is to cut power to part of the grid and to rotate the power cut between customers, what is known as a rolling blackout. If you have only half of the power needed to supply the grid at a particular time, then half of your customers must go without, hence rotating power cuts. I think this is where the concentration of investment into renewable energy will end up taking us. EROI tends to be greater for large wind turbines and large solar power facilities than for small rooftop machines and grid transmission leads to only 5% energy losses and adds 10% to energy costs. For this reason, I think most customers will continue to rely on grid electricity and most of our renewable electricity will come from very large wind/solar farms. This will be the most cost effective way of expanding renewable energy, most of which will be electricity.

    There are numerous ways to deal intermittency. Customers could simply pay more to the grid supplier for a 100% reliable supply. They could install back-up/storage at their own site, like hospital generators. If they were clever, they would add specific solutions for each energy end use. Some could go without power intermittently at little extra cost; some would need power reliably to prevent damage. Individual customers will arrive at solutions that balance power cost against productivity.

    Domestically, we will cook using slow cookers and ovens that absorb power for perhaps 30 minutes and then cook for hours using residual heat. These will be set up ready for power to be supplied. Programmable cookers are also an option. Lighting circuits offer a high value, low consumption service that would benefit from electricity storage. Fridges and freezers will be designed to store cold and will use intermittent power. Hot water will be stored in storage tanks. Heating will be accomplished using storage heaters that store many hours of heat. Some electronic devices will be equipped with power banks. In short, domestic customers will be able to adapt to intermittent power by transitioning to appliances that are adapted in this way.

    In industry the solution reached will be specific to the business. In some cases, machinery will be operated when power is available and shut down when it isn’t. I would expect a renewable energy economy to have different labour relations to a FF economy. Workers will need to be on more flexible arrangements. On a windy day, they will work 20 hour shifts. On a becalmed day, they will either repair equipment or take an involuntary holiday. Generally, workers will be trained at two or more jobs within a company; some that involve using power, others that can be done without it. They will be expected to be in work rapidly when power is available. Holiday periods will tend to be fixed to periods when energy is relatively scarce. This suggests that a renewable energy transition may drive changes to labour laws. People everywhere will need to be more flexible in their arrangements. The idea of just in time manufacturing will be gone forever. Storage of materials and products will become important. Transport will be relatively expensive and generally it will be slower.

  28. JuanP on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 9:55 am 

    Great post by Antius at 6:21am. I do think that using the term collapse connected to civilizations and societies is acceptable. Collapses can be fast or slow and its best to always specify what you mean when using the term to avoid confusion.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse

    Having said that, I want to agree with Antius that most people tend to be extreme in their views. The middle road of a slow, torturous decline lasting many decades or even centuries is not popular with many. Utopia or the walking Dead seem to be the only two choices most people consider. I think this has to do with the fact that the middle road is likely the most painful leading most to deny its existence as a real potential outcome.

    I don’t know what will happen, of course, but I think a long decline with bumps along the road looks most likely today. But a cosmic event or a nuclear war could change everything in an instant.

  29. fmr-paultard on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 10:11 am 

    juantard, good news. i invite you and tard friends to kick the anti-american dog.

    toward that end i have chieseled something resembling a dog from granite. i’ll put a cover it and painted to look like a dog

  30. Sissyfuss on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 10:47 am 

    Antius, please keep posting. Your postulations are lucid, concise and enlightening. They are what the content of this site should be rather than the sophomoric rantings and contrapuntal ad hominems that fill our texts. See people, someone here is capable of rising out of the primordial ooze to exhibit an evolved consciousness that gives us hope during a most hopeless epoch. Again, thank you Antius for sharing your superb mind.

  31. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 11:45 am 

    “Dumba is a loudmouth buffoon that drops in when he wants to kick the dog of anti-Americanism.”

    Dooma is correct. The same can be said for Canada. There are far too many young people with university degrees pouring coffee at Starbucks and flipping burgers at McDonalds, and a huge shortage of skilled tradespeople willing to do physical work for a living. Those who are skilled in the trades are in high demand and making very good coin, and do not have massive debt loads hanging over their heads that will never be paid back.

  32. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 11:53 am 

    I might add, there is pervasive attitude amongst millenials, that four extra years of schooling, regurgitating somebody else’s experiences, trumps the experience of those who have been in the real workplace for decades.

    The sad reality of the matter is, many of these kids are for all intents and purposes illiterate. They have spent far too much of their time on social media.

  33. Free Speech Forum on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 12:08 pm 

    Americans are slaves today.

    When everything is illegal, you have nothing to lose by resisting.

    When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty.

    Ignoring the police state is difficult when it’s in your face everyday.

    No one rules if no one obeys.

    The war has started.

    They can’t kill us all.

    Wake up.

    Think.

    Pass the word.

  34. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 12:11 pm 

    In regards to Antius’s post above, billions of people around the world already live with rolling blackouts.

    Forget about modern industrialism, think 3rd world standards of living, at best. Techno-utopia is not in mankind’s future. More like the 1600s with a lot less people than today.

  35. Davy on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 12:27 pm 

    GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 11:45 am
    “Dooma is correct.”

    Dooma on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:56 am
    “You arrogant little cunt of a kid….A complete pile of shit just like the American education standard….they will knock your fucking teeth out. What a smarmy comment to make….Or did your mom fuck strangers on webcam for cash?”

    Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:48 am
    “Bam! Pow! Hit him again Dooma! That worthless dog turd is an arrogant son-of-a-bitch that a will get his teeth knocked out some day.”

    I would expect that kind of talk out of you grehgster with your double standards and hypocrisy. Damn, If I would have talked like dumba and 3rd world you would have shit your pants. You are just as disgusting as 3rd world and dumba. Stupid Canadians and Australians just got to show how big and tough they are. They have to make it clear they are smarter and better looking. Go bite yourselves so you see your blood is red too.

  36. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 12:27 pm 

    Sorry,

    “billions of people around the world already live with rolling blackouts.” Or little to no access to electricity at all.

    The amount of electricity available will be location specific. Those who are already working towards a renewable base, will be better off than those who are not. Some locations, such as mine, where electric is already 100% from hydro, and not tied into the national grid, will still have full access to electricity as long as the local economy can support it.

    Electric power generation, however, will not replace what fossil fuels do for us in modern industrial society, and industrialism requires economies of scale, also supported by the burning of fossil fuels.

    As the oil age winds down, expect a reversal of economic activity, from globalism to localism, and much lower standards of living.

  37. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 12:39 pm 

    “Stupid Canadians and Australians just got to show how big and tough they are. They have to make it clear they are smarter and better looking. Go bite yourselves so you see your blood is red too.”

    Dooma was responding MM’s comment Davy.

    ““Greg and Madkat you can easily tell never went to college”..”

    MM has already told everyone that he is $100,000 in debt, is not working to pay it off, while he spends every waking hour trolling Internet forums trying his best to piss other people off.

    If this is the kind of individual that you consider to be a shining example of American exceptionalism, then you are even more of an idiot than you have already proven yourself to be.

    And as I have previously explained to you numerous times before, I have no intention of biting myself, or tasting my own blood.

    Now please go back to playing with your goat, and let the adults speak.

  38. Antius on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 12:56 pm 

    “The amount of electricity available will be location specific. Those who are already working towards a renewable base, will be better off than those who are not. Some locations, such as mine, where electric is already 100% from hydro, and not tied into the national grid, will still have full access to electricity as long as the local economy can support it.

    Electric power generation, however, will not replace what fossil fuels do for us in modern industrial society, and industrialism requires economies of scale, also supported by the burning of fossil fuels.

    As the oil age winds down, expect a reversal of economic activity, from globalism to localism, and much lower standards of living.”

    It remains to be seen to what extent intermittent renewable energy can replace the many functions performed by fossil fuels. In the short to medium term, we do not need to relinquish fossil fuels completely. We need to learn to get by with less than we use today. Heat can be stored and is a low exergy use for fossil fuels. Electricity and transport are high-value outputs in terms of using the exergy (work potential) of a stored chemical fuel.

    I would wager that we will continue to use fossil fuels as transportation and electricity fuels for some time to come, albeit at lower levels of use. Their use will tend to gravitate towards situations where their unique properties provide high value services. Thus a renewable energy system would have limited back-up power provided by CCGTs, which will prioritise valuable industrial functions that need continuous power and are prepared to pay for it. Transport would be hybrid-electric, using intermittent renewable electricity to provide the electric part when it is available.

    In principle, wind and solar power could continue to be reasonably affordable on a unit power basis, so long as we work around the limitation of intermittency. A town of 10,000 people could be powered by a single 10MW wind turbine and an equivalent capacity of solar PV at present European usage levels. With only a regional grid, power could be reasonably cheap on a per unit basis. But the population would need to develop arrangements that use it when it is there and go without when it is not. If we do not intend to get serious about a nuclear renaissance, this is the real transition that we need to be working on.

  39. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 1:22 pm 

    IMO Antius,

    Mankind would be far better served by focussing on existential threats, such as population overshoot, food production, water security, deforestation, ocean acidification, and climatic instability, than trying to figure out how to maintain some semblance of BAU, which is exactly what got us into this predicament in the first place.

  40. Antius on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 1:31 pm 

    “Antius, please keep posting. Your postulations are lucid, concise and enlightening.”

    Thanks. Really I am talking about what I happen to be interested in and have read about. Unfortunately, I am rather neglecting my day-job to write this stuff. But it is a lot more fun than what I get paid for.

  41. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 1:33 pm 

    “I would wager that we will continue to use fossil fuels as transportation and electricity fuels for some time to come.”

    Agreed, however, despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, I don’t see humanity voluntarily reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. I see humanity continuing to exploit them at an exponentially growing rate, while continuing to seek alternate energy sources to add to the mix, until such point that fossil fuels become too problematic. Then I see MIS collapsing in on itself and a mass die off of the human race. Unless of course the ‘globalists’ ignite WW3 first, then all bets are off.

    Either way, I don’t see any semblance of BAU in the not so distant future. I only see more of what we are already seeing in many parts of the world. Violence, bloodshed, political instability, disease, and war.

  42. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 1:39 pm 

    Sorry, I forgot one of the biggest causes of societal instability, famine.

  43. Antius on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 1:58 pm 

    “Either way, I don’t see any semblance of BAU in the not so distant future. I only see more of what we are already seeing in many parts of the world. Violence, bloodshed, political instability, disease, and war.”

    Agreed. It is difficult to find an industrial country these days that isn’t indebted up to its eyeballs. So if by BAU, you mean the same economic and political arrangements that we have today, then you are undoubtedly correct. It is quite inevitable at this point that the world as a whole will be facing a large decline in living standards and average energy consumption. Along with that will come a reduction in population due to declining food availability, declining sanitation and disease. In the western world, liberty and democracy are already essentially gone. This will pave the way for a new feudalism, where a privileged elite continues to enjoy high living standards and modern technology, whilst living standards continue to fall for 80% of the population, who will become the new serf class, working for the basic food and shelter needed to stay alive.

    Some places will fare better than others. It is worth remembering that the relatively clement economic conditions in the western world in the 1990s were largely the result of reduced oil consumption in ex-Soviet states following the collapse. If China were to experience an economic collapse, it may buy the world additional time at their expense.

  44. GregT on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 2:09 pm 

    Completely agree Antius, and I also agree that humanity should be making a concerted effort to build out alternate forms of energy production. That being said, I still believe that the resilience of small local communities is of paramount importance for mankind’s future survivability.

    Unfortunately, I also believe that a runaway greenhouse event has already been triggered. I could be wrong, and I most certainly hope that I am.

  45. Cloggie on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 3:52 pm 

    Trump insists on hard Brexit:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5945641/Trump-threaten-drop-transatlantic-trade-deal-unless-hard-Brexit.html

    Trump: no Uk-US trade deal if Britain doesn’t simply walk away from Europe.

    Fine: you have Britain, we’ll take the Ruskies (and Gibraltar as compensation).

    #GibraltarComingHome

    Goodbye and toodeledokie.

    Europe now really needs to get serious about its own integrated army and massive armament program, including ICBMs and build on EU-defense industry products only.

    Orwell was right… if the Americans don’t rise up, the map at the bottom represents the future world:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/which-future-world/

  46. MASTERMIND on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:25 pm 

    Guys can we please stop with the ‘Just build a farm” meme..

    It is not possible to defend a farm… attackers will kill you when you venture out to weed or sow or harvest… they will get into your farm at night and raid the crop and kill the animals..

    How f789iing difficult is it for DPs to understand this? You really have to have something seriously wrong upstairs not to get it

  47. MASTERMIND on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 4:44 pm 

    The world is falling apart. but without a plan of management it will start with chaos and descent into calamity in short order.

  48. Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:22 pm 

    “If the US was to to experience an economic collapse, it may buy the world additional time at their expense.”

    There Antius, I fixed it for you. China consumes about 2/3 the resources that the Us consumes. So, the US, being the biggest consumer in the world would also be the best to go. It would buy the world 50% more time. Not to mention peace.

  49. Makati1 on Thu, 12th Jul 2018 5:27 pm 

    “Some places will fare better than others.”

    Some here don’t seem to understand that, Antius. Many places/people will hardly notice a slow collapse or even a bumpy one. A fast collapse would be more noticeable, but billions would still adjust. When you only have necessities to start with, and they are indigenous, you don’t miss luxuries like electric, indoor plumbing, etc.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *