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Page added on March 19, 2014
Dmitry Orlov: Collapse and Systemic Failure at All Levels Coming
Dmitry Orlov is a Russian blogger who writes about the parallel between the U.S and the USSR. Orlov lived through the financial collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, and he thinks the U.S. is on the same trajectory. Orlov contends, “The trajectory is defined by this sort of incompetent militarism where more and more money results in bigger and bigger military fiascos around the world and less and less of actual foreign policy that can be pursued or articulated. There are massive levels of corruption. The amount of money that is being stolen by the U.S. Government and its various appropriations processes is now in the trillions of dollars a year. Runaway debt, the United States now has a level of debt that is un-repayable. All we’re waiting for is interest rates to go across the magic threshold of 3% and the entire budget of the country explodes. There are also all types of other tendencies that point in the direction of collapse and systemic failure at all levels.”
So, how close are we to collapse or system failure? Orlov contends, “I am pretty sure that anyone who makes a prediction when the collapse will happen is wrong. Nobody can say when it will happen. It’s the same as saying a bridge that is structurally deficient; you don’t know when a truck is going to fall through into the river below. . . . You can be chronically sick for a long time, and then one day, you go into a coma or your heart stops. You cannot predict what day that will happen. Orlov does say, “The United States right now, from my point of view and the point of view from observers from around the world, is on suicide watch. It’s a country that is going to self-destruct at some point in the near future.”
On the Ukraine crisis, Orlov thinks, “The Crimea referendum was the first legal way to find out what the people wanted to do. The turnout was remarkable, and they voted overwhelmingly to rejoin Russia, to become part of Russia once again. The interesting thing here is it was not just the Russians that voted to join Russia but the Ukrainians in Crimea, which makes a sizable part of the population voted to join Russia. . . Ukraine is composed of sort of a no man’s land in the West and then Russian territories in the East. . . . If that trend holds, you are basically left with this insolvent nugget of nothingness, and it will be up to the international community to decide what to do with these people. They are right now marching around Kiev with baseball bats and going into government offices and beating up members of local government and installing their own members. They are basically running amok. They don’t even have the support of the Ukrainian military at this point. So, it will be a mop-up operation against these neo-fascists that are running amok.” Orlov goes on to say, “In Washington, in the Obama Administration and in the Kerry State Department, we have absolutely breathtaking levels of incompetence. These people really don’t know what they’re doing and are dangerous at any speed; and everywhere else, we have this follow the incompetent leader thing taking place, and it’s really, really frightening because the incompetents are leading the world to a really dangerous place.”
Orlov goes on to say, “What are these people doing trash talking the Russians? What would these people do without Russia? How would they get out of earth’s orbit and visit the international space station? Who would negotiate international deals with Syria and Iran because all they can do is blunder and lose face.” Russia doesn’t need the United States for anything. The United States is the most dispensable country on earth.”
On possible war between Ukraine and Russia, Orlov contends, “They are not going to fight because the Ukraine military is part of the Russian military. There really isn’t any opposition. The Ukrainian military will decide what to do in a few days, and then they will inform the Russians, and after that, maybe they will inform their own government. Maybe they will just go into the government offices and just round them up. Last I heard, 60% of Ukrainian military accepted Russian passports already. The remaining parts are being shipped out to the mainland. That is happening peacefully. So, there isn’t going to be any fight. The really important point is the Ukrainian military all over Ukraine does not support the government in Kiev. They are withholding support, and what they really want is to join the Russian military. . . . The best thing Russia can do is sit back and relax and let this work out. I don’t think the government in Kiev has any legs.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dmitry Orlov of ClubOrlov.com coming from Central America.
(There is much more in the video interview.)
32 Comments on "Dmitry Orlov: Collapse and Systemic Failure at All Levels Coming"
Northwest Resident on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 7:55 pm
More speculation and judgment from Dimitri Orlov on what the federal government is or isn’t doing in regards to Ukraine, joining a chorus of speculation from every talking head, every pundit and every blogger in the world. And speculation is all they’ve got. Which is okay, because in this crazy world, speculation is about all any of us have. My speculation on the Ukraine situation is that in secret, the American Federal government is “just fine” with Crimea joining Russia, and that it is all part of a long-running plan to get borders solidified in preparation for the coming collapse. All of the war of words, threats of military action, fist shaking and red faced ultimatum spewing is merely meant to discourage other nations/areas in the world that might be contemplating similar change from thinking it is “easy” or even worth trying. Just pure political theatre, nothing but. What’s your speculation?
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 8:05 pm
OK, you guys if you read my spews and squawks lately you know my position on collapse. I do not like how Orlov focuses his attention on the US and collapse. This is not because I am American it is because the global world is not just American. Our population is 5% of total. We use 20% of the energy. Our economy is a quarter of the global GDP. How does that make us the only focal point in a runaway status quo Bau train?? I want to know Orlov? You are letting your national sentiments come out instead of good objective research. The global world is in this mess together. We will perish together. I am getting tiered of the US bashing when the whole friggen system is a mess. I could give a rats ass about Putin and his game of chess. The whole Ukraine deal is just another distraction from the need for tough decisions on adapting, mitigating, and adjusting to an environment of multiple tipping points converging with hyper magnified positive feedbacks. If we are to survive as a species we will have to quit the blame and complain. In AA you ask “How have I contributed to this situation?” NOT my “F***ing wife caused me to drink and beat the kids. OK, I am showing emotions. The US is a great example for discussion of collapse but it is when it becomes the focal point and the rest of the global system is ignored that is when we have a lynching and not justice!!!
Plantagenet on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 8:56 pm
Orlov is right. Obama and Kerry are incompetents. Putin has taken their measure and marched his troops into Crimea.
The real question is what will Putin do next?
J-Gav on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:03 pm
Plants – “What will Putin do next?” That’s not rocket science. He’ll make damn good well and sure that eastern Ukraine with its Donetsk industrial basin gets on the same track as Crimea.
eugene on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:22 pm
People can sure get defensive and quick. But then most Americans do. My read is we don’t have to worry. The tooth fairy is going to leave 16-17 trillion under our pillow. The infinite technological ability of America will prolong the tight oil “miracle” and we will drive endlessly into the dark on buck a gallon gas and climate change will disappear as the aliens are coming to magically solve the CO2 problem. As a young man, I learned wishful thinking is just that and defensiveness is a waste of time. But it is more pleasant the facing reality.
J-Gav on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:37 pm
As for Orlov, he makes some good points in the video but I think he underestimates the potential for civil strife there as most of those from the western half of the ‘country’ actually do want rapprochement with Europe, while in the east it’s with Russia. The simple-minded, fascist-thug promoting policy of NATO doesn’t bode well. An all-out civil war is still avoidable but the risk has not yet been entirely eliminated.
PapaSmurf on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:05 pm
In a 2009 article in Mother Jones Virginia Heffernan labels Orlov’s position as “collapsitarianism” which she believes involves “a desire for complete economic meltdown” and writes that Orlov espouses “bourgeois survivalism”.
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Is there anything in his background that would even qualify him to be taken seriously on any of these topics? His degree is in Computer Engineering. So he grew up in the Soviet Union and watched it collapse until he was 12. That hardly qualifies him as an expert on any of these topics.
It seems like the only place that gives him any attention lately is PeakOil.com and the same 10-12 guys hanging out here.
GregT on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:06 pm
“the risk has not yet been entirely eliminated”
The Americans, and their puppet Stephen Harper, appear to be doing everything that they can to start a war in the Ukraine. Either that, or they are bunch of incompetent idiots. The MSM propaganda is thick, and does not represent anything that I have read coming out of the Ukraine. People here in Canada are buying into the lies, hook, line, and sinker. This is either a diversion from something else bigger, or the beginning of the end game. IMHO.
PapaSmurf on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:09 pm
LOL, that video is hilarious. This guy is off his rocker.
PapaSmurf on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:22 pm
Looking at the other clowns on Greg Hunters YouTube channel, you can see that Dmitry Orlov fits in nicely.
Here are the recent interviews:
1) Gold is going to $50,000 per ounce
2) Dollar will collapse in a few months
3) World War III is about to start
4) Russia can collapse the US economy at will
5) All debt in all banks will be wiped out soon
6) and many more…
https://www.youtube.com/user/usawatchdog
This is a clown show. You guys are the types that buy into any dipshit conspiracy theory being sold and consider it “revealing” and “insightful”.
JB on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:52 pm
I would agree that a “collapse” is coming,but not a Soviet style collapse,and not for a few decades. The Soviets never had a global economy, and the ruble was not a reserve currency. Today the markets of the world are totally controlled, like the stock markets, oil market, interest rates, the dollar, etc, etc. What we are really facing is an exponentially increasing dollar devaluation where the dollar buys a little less year by year. We will end up eventually at the economic bottom, but the collapse will be slow motion.
Deskpoet on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 11:40 pm
@PapaSmurf,
YOU are a clown show.
There. See how ad hominem makes people that use them look? Then again, you ARE a little blue plastic piece of crap, so I suppose you’re not concerned with how you look.
DC on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:00 am
Jealous some there PS? Is it because Orlov is articulate, well read and regarded? Is that what bothers you so much? Or is it that he is, in your narrow view, just some know-nothing Russki that should keep quiet? Whatever it is your peddling, you know its not going to change anyones opinion of him or his works, so really, whats with all the mudslinging. He knows his people, you and most of yours couldn’t find Russia, Ukraine, much less Crimea on a map if you tried.
Right Econ?
Makati1 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 2:19 am
Orlov seems to sum up the situation clearly, down to an accurate picture of the US. The old lion in his cage does not see that he is past his prime and dying. In his mind he is still the king of the beasts and powerful. That is how the US thinks of itself. Still number one and powerful. The rest of the world sees a different country. A country way past it’s prime and living on past glories. A country ignoring international laws and commitments because to do so would hasten its fall.
The rest of the world can do without the US very well, contrary to the opinion of some here. And you will soon see that happening as the petro dollar is destroyed. Americans are blind to reality. Even their own.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 2:26 am
Makati said – The rest of the world can do without the US very well, contrary to the opinion of some here.
Yeap, Makati, I be one of those contrarians. You are foolish to think a collapsed US will be fine for the world. Just as we need to be very worried about what is happening in China right now.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 4:33 am
Huge debt is spread all around the globe in major and minor countries. It is all interconnected, just one big web of fraud, over-inflated securities, newly printed trillions and worthless guarantees. In what seems like an inevitability, it doesn’t matter where the financial contagion starts that sparks a major market correction — it will affect all countries’ finances and economies negatively and perhaps catastrophically depending on the size of the correction. Those who think that their countries will be able to stand on safe islands and watch America burn are in for a very rude surprise. But to be honest, not many people are prone to think that way — just a few of the unique thinkers among us are likely to spend time contemplating that impossibility.
clueless on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 5:03 am
Orlov is always so spot on. US is the most dispensable country on this planet. The earlier we get rid of this junk, the better for this planet.
Makati1 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 7:17 am
Sure, there will be hurt, but ask the Iraqis if they would chose some economic pain over the 11 year old invasion by the US. Ask the Syrians, the Iranians, the Libyans, the Egyptians, the Nigerians, the Afghans, the Cubans, and on and on. And the answer would be “Bring on the financial problems. We can deal with those”. All they have to do is refuse to pay their foreign debts and walk away. With no imperial army to make them pay, they could start over.
So, yes, most of the world would like to see the US fail and become a 3rd world country, powerless and broke. Only those who would suffer most by losing their comfy lifestyle think different.
Arthur on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 8:56 am
Greg Hunter is (for me) the premier US address to listen to high-profile serious (often financial) professional people, telling stories you won’t hear on the MSM propaganda outlets. Greg Hunter is not an American traitor, there is no reason to assume he is looking forward to a US collapse. He looks like he is a republican from middle America, he is a former MSM professional and worked for ABC and CNN:
http://usawatchdog.com/bio/
And now he has Dmitri Orlov. What kept him so long?
The most interesting point of view was that he thinks that the Ukrainian situation will fizzle out. Hope it will, but I am not so sure. Orlov says that in the end the Ukrainian military will choose sides in favor of Russia. Have no information to confirm or debunk that view. But I fear that Orlov underestimates the force of Ukrainian nationalism. And that the western Ukraine does indeed prefer to orient itself towards Poland and Germany rather than Moscow. During the Soviet era no nationality was so fierce anti-Soviet as the western Ukraine. Until the Khazar revolution of 1917, Lvov was known as Lemberg. And if you walk through the city center of Lvov you think you are in Habsburg country. You can denounce revolutionaries as a bunch of ‘fascist thugs’, but they are a fact of life, just like the Sunni fundamentalists in Syria. The latter example shows that it takes only a determined minority of 70,000 to set a country on fire. I think it is more likely that the Ukraine will be destabilized for a very long time to come. Becoming a member of the EU is unthinkable. The best the can get is an association treaty. Angela Merkel has done herself no favor over the past few days by choosing the line of Washington hook, line and sinker, rather than using the occasion for a foreign policy more independent of Washington, visit Moscow and reach an agreement with Putin, without the Americans. But perhaps it is to early to even contemplate how the future of the Ukraine should look like. There are no easy answers.
Makati1 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:08 pm
I wonder how cold it will get in Europe next winter?
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:36 pm
Can you blame the Western Ukrainians Arthur for having a bad taste for the Russians that through the Soviet system practiced genocide with their unspoken policy to starve the Ukrainians in the 30’s?
Clueless said – Orlov is always so spot on. US is the most dispensable country on this planet. The earlier we get rid of this junk, the better for this planet.
Anytime I read this junk I think how narrow-minded and irrational people are. So easy to point fingers. I bet the world needs someone like clueless around. You must be a shining star of sustainability a regular St Francis. Look you “people bashers” you can point your finger at the 1% in the rich world but when you point at the whole US population you are saying “I” need to disappear. Your US finger pointing and bashing are just jealousy. I can guess you by no means live anymore sustainably. If you did you would not even be on the internet. I am sure you are not living a strictly permaculture life off the grid, eating local, and sustainable in harmony with nature. Giving back more to nature than what you take. Human habitation is capable of that
Arthur on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 1:23 pm
Yes Makati, that could very well be the case. I regularly post on the German MSM der Spiegel. The majority of the posters there say that sanctions against Russia are madness, leaving the Americans roaring with laughter.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/krim-krise-merkel-kuendigt-neue-sanktionen-gegen-russland-an-a-959758.html
Russia has a Putin, we Europeans have no de Gaulle, unfortunately. Meanwhile all the German polit oldtimers like Helmut ‘gaspipeline’ Schmidt and Gerhard ‘Gazprom’ Schroeder are warning against overreacting against the Russians.
Davy, no I don’t blame the western Ukrainians at all. I think that the EU should indeed ‘open up’ to them, without making outrageous promises, like EU-membership. I hope Orlov is right and that the Ukrainian military organizes a counter-coup, organizes elections soon, which will show that the country is a bout split in the middle when it comes to orientation. These tension can be eased by pumping in Russian AND European money, leaving the Ukraine within the Russian sphere of influence, military speaking.
bobinget on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 4:17 pm
Ukraine food squeeze threatens to trigger war and new Arab Spring
Will Iraq be next to have an Arab Spring?
A surge in the price of wheat and the rising cost of food have raised the risk of conflicts spreading globally and the possible reawaken of the “Arab Spring” uprisings in the Middle East.
This is the latest warning on the impact that rising commodity prices arising from instability in Ukraine could have on security and the global economy from leading British academic Aled Jones, director of Anglia Ruskin’s Global Sustainability Institute.
“The threat for the coming year is that, should global crop production be impacted by severe weather, as we have seen increasingly in recent years, the impact of the crisis in Ukraine could result in a major supply demand imbalance in global food trade,” said Mr Jones.
“This would trigger major volatility in the price of food. If this happened, already fragile countries could further destabilise.”
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and dispute with Ukraine has pushed wheat prices 13pc higher this month amid fears that supplies of key agricultural commodities from Europe’s bread basket could be disrupted.
High food costs were a major underlying factor behind the Arab Spring uprisings in 2010, which saw regime change in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
According to Anglia’s Global Resource Observatory project: “A variety of factors, such as political regime and social tensions, will influence whether a country falls into unrest. However, a trigger event such as food shortages, coupled with costly imports, often precipitates conflict.”
Researchers from the university say that almost four years after the start of the Arab Spring, the Middle East remains “vulnerable to the global price of food”. Risks to rising commodity prices other than Ukraine include extreme climatic events such as the cold weather experienced in North America this winter and droughts across Brazil could also have a major role to play, according to the research.
Meanwhile, Macquarie has revised upwards in price forecasts through to 2015 for some major soft food commodities such as coffee and wheat.
The bank said on Thursday that: “Adverse weather conditions (affecting coffee, sugar, palm oil and soybeans), together with political instability in the Black Sea region (supporting corn and wheat), led to sharply higher commodity price moves. Funds have covered their short positions and are now net long in anticipation of potential supply disruptions ahead.”
Macquarie’s MacPI agricultural commodity index has moved sharply higher since the beginning of the year, climbing 6.3pc in February and 3.9pc in March.
Although the average price of a basket of groceries in the UK has so far been unaffected by Ukraine crisis the Bank of England has warned that the dispute with Russia could put pressure on prices for key commodities such as grain and gas.
Rusty Baker on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 8:41 pm
If Orlov hates America so much, why doesn’t he move to Russia and bow down before Czar Putin. I’m pretty sure that Orlov is a Soviet infiltrator and spy trying to gather American intelligence to bring down USA. He should be tried for sedition and treason. But because of Obama’s leftist leanings, Orlov is considered a hero instead of a traitor–another reason for the downfall of this once-great country. If only we had another Ronald Reagan in office to destroy the Communist menace for good. I’m really gettin’ tired of all these pinkos spewing forth propaganda on these forums.
Stilgar Wilcox on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 9:18 pm
I too Rusty am wondering about Orlov’s apparent pro-Russian/anti-American stance in light of his prior leaving Russia for the US. If memory serves he use to bash Russia, but now he’s reversed course? Seems like maybe it’s time for him to go back, then if things get bad in Russia again he can backdoor it to the US. Someday it will be known as Orlov’s revolving door.
Welch on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 1:27 am
“People here in Canada are buying into the lies, hook, line, and sinker.”
Not all of us.
Makati1 on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 2:29 am
Those of you that assume that someone hates America just because they do not swallow the BS and smile, are the ones with a problem.
Those that do not see / understand that the sooner the whole system collapses, the easier it will be to rebuild some livable system after. Soon it will not be possible and then it is game over for the human race and most of the other life on the earth. Insanity is wanting BAU to last as long as it can so we are not inconvenienced.
Yes, I enjoy the possibilities the internet provides, but, I lived 55 years with out it and I can live the rest of my life sans internet also. I had none of the so called ‘conveniences’ when I was a kid and lived quite well and happy. As I am sure those living in the pre-hydrocarbon age also were happy and content. So, bring it on and the sooner the better!
GregT on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 5:37 am
Welch,
Good to see someone else is able to get past the exceptionalism, lies, and propaganda. I really am amazed at how many here can’t. The MSM BS is so thick you can taste it, and after all of the recent war mongering being exposed for what it is, you would think people would wake up.
Bor on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 3:41 pm
The US Government should organize its own stand-up comedy show. What a bunch of clueless morons! Ignoramuses to an extreme! I’m not sure that they even know where Ukraine is located.
dcheath40 on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 5:46 pm
As much as I agree with Orlov’s collapse predictions for the US, I think he is letting his Russian ancestry get in the way of his objectivity on the Ukrainian situation. Does he actually believe there was no ballot box fraud in the referendum? Honest referendums on any subject never get 96% of the vote….maybe 80% at the very best. He actually says that the Tatars and many Ukrainians in Crimea voted yes. What is his evidence for this? Does he not know Crimea’s history? After World War II Stalin deported 200,000 Tatars to Siberia and almost 100,000 of them died enroute. Stalin also starved to death 8 million Ukrainians in the Holodomor in 1933. So I don’t think many Tatars or Ukrainians voted to join Russia! Doesn’t Orlov even know his own country’s history? Orlov says that the new Ukrainian government are a bunch of fascists, but I have travelled in both the Ukraine and Russia; and believe me, even the right wing groups in the Ukraine are raving liberals in comparison to the current totalitarian regime in Russia. Talk about “the kettle calling the pot black”! Orlov, I think you need to give your head a shake on this one!
Arthur on Sun, 23rd Mar 2014 12:23 pm
There is no evidence for large scale election fraud. The outcome was clear in advance and the people who were against simply boycotted the referendum. Here is a very good story by the Jewish writer Israel Shamir, explaining the situation in the Ukraine/Crimea:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/12/20/what-really-happened-in-ukraine/
Westerners tend to make too much of the imaginary Ukrainian-Russian divide, which is like the Anglo-Irish divide in America. It exists (St. Patrick’s day), but it is not enough to go at each other’s throat. Ukrainian nationalism exists in the western Ukraine, but is probably not a majority position within the entire Ukraine. Many ethnic Ukrainians from the East would actually vote for Russia, unless the EU would offer a lot of free beer, but the EU can’t. The true face of the Ukraine will reveal itself in the coming elections, when again the outcome will be about EU/Russia 50/50, just like last time. Euro-Maidan is not representative for the Ukraine, it was to a large extent Nuland’s 5 billion in action.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 23rd Mar 2014 12:50 pm
Orlov ruined his objectivity when he took sides. He is now a participant in the struggle and no longer a social scientist discussing a crisis rationally. He fails to look at collapse rationally and with a balance scientifically when his “MO” is US bashing. Yes, DC, balance is an important point in science. It means weighing variables. I still remember you bashing me for mentioning a need for balance in our discussions. If you are going to study these issues rationally then it “Must” be scientifically and mathematically. Sure it is fine to take sides and root on a team. This is “realpolitik” this is an age old human nature but it is far from rational. This rooting on a team is emotions and social. So you propagandist and political animals here please recognize what you are doing and don’t claim scientific or historic relevance if you are choosing sides. You are just another football fan!!