The economic effects of plunging oil prices is a bad news/good news story. The bad news is that world stocks are taking a beating, especially those of energy companies, with crude oil selling for less than $30 a barrel. The good news is that gas is cheaper at the pump: The national average for a gallon of gas in the U.S. is below $2 a gallon for the first time since 2009, and USA Todayquoted Wall Street analysts predicting gas heading toward $1 a gallon. People can afford to fill up the tank and hit the road.
But be careful what you wish for. Cheaper oil has environmental ramifications, too. It means fewer fuel-efficient vehicles on the road and less plastic recycling, as it’s less expensive to make products such as shopping bags from new plastic than it is to re-use recycled plastic.
After a long period of slow sales, sport utility vehicles and other gas hogs are selling big again. According to a story on TheDetroitBureau.com, vehicle sales are shifting from passenger cars to pickups, vans, and utility vehicles. “We see a lot of growth. SUVs were 30 percent of the industry last year but could go to 40 percent” before the end of the decade, said the website, which covers the automotive industry and bills itself as “the voice of the automotive world.”
“With fuel prices as they are, consumers are voting for SUVs,” Ford Motor Company Executive Vice President Joseph R. Hinrichs said during an interview at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit. Hinrichs, with his title of “president of the Americas,” is in charge of all auto development and sales in North and South America. In fact, Ford is planning on introducing four new SUVs to its line over the next few years.
And Ford’s not the only one. “Key competitors, from General Motors to Volkswagen and Kia, are getting ready to expand their own SUV and CUV [crossover utility vehicle] lines to meet market expectations,” says the DetroitBureau story. “They’re encouraged to bring on more SUV models not only by strong sales in the U.S., but by growing sales in overseas markets, including both Europe and China.”
Haven’t we been here before? Didn’t SUV sales boom in the 1990s (and heavily contribute to global warming), only to droop during times of higher gas prices and economic recessions?
It’s auto show season nationwide. The biggie, the North American International Auto Show, is just wrapping up its two-week run in Detroit. Nearly 50 other big shows are scheduled coast to coast throughout the year, with 21 major ones planned by the end of February.
Given that SUVs and other big vehicles are so much less fuel efficient than their smaller counterparts, the automakers’ incentive to expand the SUV lines remains what it always has been—financial. “On average, utes command a higher price—and deliver stronger margins—than the more traditional passenger car models motorists might otherwise choose,” the DetroitBureau story says. Why sell a Ford Fusion for $22,000 when you can sell a Ford Expedition for $45,000? Why sell a Cadillac ATS Coupe for $38,000 when you can sell a Cadillac Escalade for $75,000?
To be sure, both big and small vehicles are more fuel efficient than they used to be, as President Obama reminded people when he visited Detroit and its auto show. The Obama administration set standards to double the fuel economy of passenger vehicles by 2025 and established the first-ever fuel economy standards for medium and heavy-duty trucks. The new standards are expected “to lower CO2 emissions by approximately 1 billion metric tons, cut fuel costs by about $170 billion, and reduce oil consumption by up to 1.8 billion barrels over the lifetime of the vehicles sold under the program,” according to figures from the National Traffic Safety Highway Administration. “These reductions are nearly equal to the greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy use by all U.S. residences in one year.”
The goal is to manufacture cars that get an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Even the 2016 goals were ambitious: The average fuel economy for cars had to improve from 27.5 mpg, where it has been since 1990, to 35.5 mpg by 2016. When the 2016 standards were announced, a report in Car and Driver described them this way: “A mandate of 35.5 mpg by 2016 is like fighting obesity by outlawing large clothing.”
Did the auto industry deliver? Not quite yet, but it’s getting there. The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute issues monthly sales-weighted Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) performance numbers, and the latest figures show a definite upward trend in fuel efficiency, from 25.5 mpg in 2007 to 31.0 mpg at the end of 2015.
But that’s an average, meaning that small cars are doing the heavy lifting in the fuel efficiency department. A non-hybrid Ford Fusion gets a combined city-highway average of 26 mpg; a Ford Expedition gets 17 mpg. (A hybrid Ford Fusion gets 44 mpg.) A four-cylinder Cadillac ATS Coupe gets 26 combined mpg; a Cadillac Escalade, 17 mpg.
DetroitBureau.com offers some words of warning:
The surge in SUV sales isn’t entirely a positive development for the industry. It does raise challenges for an industry struggling to adapt to tougher emissions and fuel economy regulations. That could force makers to either hold down sales artificially or adopt more expensive powertrain technologies, such as plug-in hybrid and pure battery-electric systems, insiders warn.
One of the risks is that these technologies won’t deliver the sort of driving dynamics and features buyers expect in a utility vehicle. Meanwhile, the higher costs of those technologies could turn off potential customers, dragging down sales.
So kudos to the U.S. auto industry for bouncing back from near oblivion, with U.S. auto sales at an all-time high of 17.4 million in 2015. Kudos to American autoworkers for being back at work—there are 640,000 more people working in the industry today than there were in 2009. Kudos to the Obama administration for rescuing the auto industry with an economic bailout (sorry, GOP, the $79.7 billion in loans have been repaid) and for upping fuel economy standards. Let’s just remember the environmental cost.
The auto show in Detroit also is a big economic boon for the city—several hundred thousand people come to the Motor City to see the latest models, spending money at Detroit’s restaurants, hotels, and other businesses. “Last year, more than 808,775 people attended the show over the nine days that it’s open to the public, the most in 12 years,” reported the Detroit Free Press. Attendance at this year’s show portends to be even bigger.
Meanwhile, what of sales of more fuel-efficient cars, including hybrids and electric vehicles? A mid-2015 report from the Detroit News reported that sales were tumbling. “Despite hefty discounts, low gas prices and aging EV [electronic vehicle] models are helping to drag down sales of fuel-sipping, plug-in electric hybrids and full-electric cars. They are also being hurt by a consumer shift away from cars toward crossover and sport utility vehicles.”
According to 2015 sales figures from Automotive News, sales of regular (meaning smaller) cars dipped 2.3 percent from 2014 figures. Sales of pickups, SUVs and vans were up by 7.7 percent. And sales of crossover vehicles, built on a car platform but with SUV features, jumped by 18 percent.
It’s not just an American phenomenon. An editorial in the Guardian reports on British car-buying habits.
Cheap oil encourages waste; worse, it discourages investment in a more efficient “energy infrastructure.” Renewables, as well as upgrades to clean up fossil fuel power stations, yield less return. Drivers feel less pressed to trade in their SUV for a G-Wiz [a small micro-electric car], and car manufacturers are less inclined to concentrate R&D on fuel economy.
Here’s another downside to cheap oil—the effect on recycling plastic bags. Let’s (hopefully!) assume many of you carry reusable bags on trips to the grocery store or local farmers’ markets. But it’s inevitable to end up with plastic bags from many retailers, even though some municipalities are trying to ban them or at least cut down on their use.
Will these plastic bags be recycled or will they end up in a landfill?
So unless you use plastic bags to pick up after your dog, you bundle them up and drop them off at a local grocery with a large container that accepts bags for recycling. Problem solved, right?
Except that those bags don’t always end up being recycled. About half of them end up in landfills, according to a representative of Sims Recycling Solutions, a global leader in recycling electronics as well as plastic bags. It’s cheaper for plastics companies to simply make new bags than to use recycled material.
During a recent interview with NPR, Tom Outerbridge, who runs a Sims Recycling plant in Brooklyn, New York, said the ever-lower price of oil was making it harder and harder for recyclers to find buyers for plastic bags. This is from an interview with Stacey Vanek Smith from NPR’s Planet Money team:
SMITH: It costs about as much to clean and sort a plastic bag as it does a detergent bottle, but you get way less plastic from the bag.
OUTERBRIDGE: This is really the bottom of the barrel in terms of the plastics market. The value of it is relatively low, which means we can’t afford to put a lot of time and money into trying to recycle it.
SMITH: And so then what happens to the plastic bags if you can’t sell them?
OUTERBRIDGE: We will certainly—you can get to the point where these are going to the landfill.
There are upsides to cheap oil, which discourages investment in more expensive and often dirtier methods of fossil fuel extraction. Many companies, such as BP, are cutting operations in deep-water oil drilling. Shale oil producers also are hurting, according to Reuters. “Across oil fields from Texas to North Dakota, fears are growing that crude’s plunge below $30 a barrel is more than just another market milestone and marks a countdown to an endgame for many shale producers that so far have braved the 18-month downturn.”
And growth in renewable energy is still skyrocketing, as wind and solar power are used more for electricity than for transportation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that renewable energy as a whole will grow by 9.5 percent in 2016. That growth should continue, as Congress passed an extension and modification of federal tax credits for new wind and solar generators through 2019 and beyond. “Wind capacity, which starts from a significantly larger installed capacity base than solar, grew by 13 percent in 2015, and it is forecast to increase by 14 percent in 2016,” the EIA says.
In what could be an ironic twist, the Guardianeditorial saw a roundabout environmental benefit to cheap oil, one that needs to be undertaken by world leaders. “Bargain-basement energy should also be the spur for far-sighted politicians to act on carbon pricing and other regulations and taxes that can’t be done when prices are high. In Paris last month, world leaders wrote post-dated cheques to the planet. Cheap oil is the opportunity to make a down payment.”
40 Comments on "The environmental consequences of cheap oil"
onlooker on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:17 pm
Yeah in summary cheap oil just allows industrial civilization to continue to plunder and pillage Nature!
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:38 pm
No matter.
7.4 billion rapacious ape are a suicide cancer cult no matter what energy system they use. It is a physical impossibility to “green” 7.4 billion apes who are driven by their abstract reward system. The same limbic system that drives all creatures and is responsible for our dominance to begin with.
The Paris Gravity Well, Part II: Trillionization
“We will not suddenly convert steel mills, cement kilns and road surfacing machines to operate on sunbeams.”
“What this means is the same thing that Gail Tverberg, Richard Heinberg and many others have been saying for a very long time — modern economies are a product of cheap energy. Take that away and they crash and burn. That’s the good news. Garrett says there is no other climate remediation model that works. Civilization is a heat engine whether it is powered by nuclear fusion or photovoltaics. The global economy must crash for humanity to stand a chance. McPherson would take it a step farther and say it is already too late, enjoy what time you have.”
Physics is in charge now. The heat always chases the cold.
Warm Arctic Storms Aim to Unfreeze the North Pole Again — That’s 55 Degrees (F) Above Normal For January
“The anchor of these dervishes of Equator-to-Pole heat transfer is the very Winter Storm Jonas that just crippled the Eastern US with record snowfall amounts and storm surges that have beaten some of the highest seas seen during Superstorm Sandy. A second, hurricane force low in the range of 950 mb is predicted to set up between Iceland and Greenland. But the tip of this spear of record atmospheric heat pointed directly at the Arctic is a third, but somewhat milder 990 mb, storm.
And it is this northern low that will draw a leading edge of record warmth into the Arctic. An anomalous, ocean-originating heat front that will spread its pall of air warm enough to melt sea ice during Winter north of Svalbard tomorrow. A swath of near and above-freezing temperatures spreading inexorably Pole-ward. Reinforced by the supporting lows and the synoptic wave of warmth in train, this storm is predicted to drive near or slightly above freezing temperatures into the region of 90 North Latitude by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. An event that would be unprecedented, at least in modern meteorological reckoning. One that may well be unprecedented for the whole of the Holocene.”
Ape the only thing to add is that most humans do not want to know about what is coming.
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:58 pm
Fast-acting methane from Aliso Canyon leak is boosting global warming
“So far, estimates show the leak has put out the equivalent of 2.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — more greenhouse gas than 440,000 cars emit in a year. Because the surge of pollution is in the form of methane, it will have a more immediate heat-trapping effect on the atmosphere.
Natural gas consists mostly of methane. Health officials say mercaptan and other odorants added to the gas are responsible for the symptoms being reported by Porter Ranch residents, including headache and nausea. The gas also contains compounds such as benzene that can increase cancer risk through long-term exposure.”
“Worst wildlife die-off ever recorded” anywhere on Earth underway on West Coast — Expert: “And we’re not just talking marine die-offs… yeah, it’s a really big deal” — “There are many more species that are getting sick” — “Facing possibility of extinction” — Scientist: “Is it some sort of a toxin that’s there?” (VIDEO)
Plastic now pollutes every corner of Earth
From supermarket bags to CDs, man-made waste has contaminated the entire globe, and become a marker of a new geological epoch
“Humans have made enough plastic since the second world war to coat the Earth entirely in clingfilm, an international study has revealed. This ability to plaster the planet in plastic is alarming, say scientists – for it confirms that human activities are now having a pernicious impact on our world.”
“Warm Arctic Storms Aim to Unfreeze the North Pole Again — That’s 55 Degrees (F) Above Normal For January” This is runaway global warming and the precursor to a mass extinction event we are all witnessing. I think everyone may have to purchase alot more popcorn cause the show is getting alot more dramatic.
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 3:39 pm
Onlooker, I’m sure you are aware of the analogy that the earth absorbs the equivalent 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second due to our emissions? Most of that heat has gone into the ocean and is now looking to equalize/chase the cold. Hello Arctic & Antarctic. Hello glaciers. Basic physics, but like Dave says, “most humans do not want to know” and since it’s Jr high science they unknow it.
Flowing from Hot to Cold: The Second Law of Thermodynamics
There is a lag time of at least 10 years from emissions to warming. Over half of all industrial emissions have come in the last 30 years and they hang around for a long long time. Former carbon sinks are now sources – feedbacks everywhere.
Global Warming Fact: More than Half of All Industrial CO2 Pollution Has Been Emitted Since 1988
Yes AP, the incredible absorption/sink capabilities has delayed the reckoning of all this CO2 into the atmosphere. The ground zero for this climate Armageddon seems to be the Arctic specifically the ESAS where a huge methane escape threatens immediate rise in world temps and agriculture failure. http://ameg.me/index.php/faq
onlooker on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 3:56 pm
the incredible absorption/sink capabilities of ocean
makati1 on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 5:55 pm
Food for thought:
There is ~20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise locked into Greenland’s ice cover.
There is about 200 feet (60 meters) locked in Antarctica’s ice cover.
What land areas fall into that ~220 feet of ocean rise? Most of the cities of the world. All of the ports. Even inland areas that you think would be safe are not.
Another thought:
What would the shifting of trillions of tons of water weight do to the stabilization of the earth’s crust? Major quakes? Major volcanic eruptions? Antarctica would definitely lift up. What would go down?
Interesting to contemplate. isn’t it?
bug on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 8:07 pm
Mak,yes it is.
That is why it is going to be the greatest show on Earth. And all of us are paticipants in the show. To add to onlooker, more dramatic and comic.
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 10:34 pm
The Cross of the Moment
“A deep-green/deep-time, highly cerebral discussion of the environmental crisis, The Cross of the Moment attempts to connect the dots between Fermi’s Paradox, climate change, capitalism, and collapse. Interviews with top scientists and public intellectuals are woven together into a narrative that is challenging, exhausting, and often depressing as it refuses to accept the easy answers posited by other overly-simplistic climate change documentaries.”
Like I been saying, apes can only rebuild and repair the infrastructure, businesses and homes so many times.
This Weekend’s Blizzard Was a ‘Multi-Billion-Dollar’ Disaster
“It is anticipated that this will be the first billion-dollar weather event of 2016 for the United States,” the re-insurer said in a statement. “Given the physical damage to homes, businesses and other structures and automobiles, plus the high costs incurred due to business interruption, it is expected that this will end up being a multi-billion-dollar economic cost.”
Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….
China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
Kenz, one privileged middle class mouth like yours, eats more in a life time than a couple 3rd world towns. The Chinese poor were able to climb out of poverty by making the thousands of consumer products momma bought you growing up including solar panels for entitled white folks. Good deal eh? They turned their country into a fucking toxic waste dump so you could play superior on your device.
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 1:51 pm
Kenz, if your parents would have shown some restraint, or practised sodomy instead (works for me), we would not be in this mess.
DAILY INFOGRAPHIC: IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE AN AMERICAN, HOW MANY EARTHS WOULD WE NEED?
HINT: IT’S A GOOD THING NOT EVERYONE LIVES LIKE AN AMERICAN.
“You’re probably already aware that Americans consume a disproportional amount of the world’s stuff. You may even have bumped into some of the statistics: We make up 5 percent of the global population, but use 20 percent of the world’s energy. We eat 15 percent of the world’s meat. We produce 40 percent of the world’s garbage.
While those numbers do sound impressive, it can be hard to know what to make of them. OK, so we eat 10 billion animals and throw out 16 billion disposable diapers every year. So what?”
These things take time. The US is now giving rights to the gay community. As the gays flourish population should slow. Now if we just ended immigration the population would drop. We import our kids now.
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 4:15 pm
Das Boat, the gay community was not given anything – they fought for it. A fierce and highly coordinated battle plan. Many were ostracised – lost jobs, family, etc. Many were beaten and some died and they were well aware that it was going to happen to some of them before they started. More courage and conviction than today’s whining working classes show. Again, Boat you just make shit up as you go along.
Das Boat, sprechen sie tard? Most of the time.
Boat on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 4:48 pm
Apeman,
Yes, they fought like blacks and women. Good on them. Let me rephrase, Congress voted in rights for the gay community. I am more progressive than you as I believe in rights for all humans. All colors, gender, sex preferance etc. I don’t blame countries for actions, just comment on what I think the implications will be.
I do believe our country should lead in many areas and am left disappointed we are not better at it. But were better than most leading countries in world history. Hannibal were not.
PracticalMaina on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 2:57 pm
Apneaman, you and GregT must feel pretty guilty being on this website all day when your losing your shit on a guy who drops a quick pro solar comment. How can you and Gregt even get on the same side on issues when he is one of those evil solar owners?
And GregT when do you get the time to get online, I thought you would be 2 busy destroying the world by buying your 3rd solar system.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 3:11 pm
Practical, you are wasting your time trying to get along with people that don’t like you for who you are. Unless you are an extremist in their causes you are just going to be rudely slapped when you deviate from their message. Don’t take it personal and get even when the time is right.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 4:11 pm
“And GregT when do you get the time to get online, I thought you would be 2 busy destroying the world by buying your 3rd solar system.”
Statements such as this do nothing to help your credibility Practical. There are thousands of people who read this site on a daily basis. I stand firmly behind what I have said, regardless of your childish rhetoric.
Solar PV is not a sustainable source of electric power generation. To argue this fact only makes you look like a fool.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 4:27 pm
Davy,
Still unable to rise above your emotions I see. You should know better by now.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 4:58 pm
Yea, Greg, you have great vision for those things unless you look in the mirror.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:36 pm
You’re contradicting yourself Davy. Maybe doom-steading wasn’t such a good idea after all? Not too late to go back. Practical will help set you straight.
Myself, I personally can’t unlearn, what I’ve already learned. YMMV.
Practicalmaina on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:37 pm
GREGT just trying to point out some hypocrisy, I wish I had solar installed, in 30-40-50 years when those things start to decline, if there is no means to recycle the silicone,http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/11/solar-panel-silicon-wafer-recovery. You could always try to repurpose the tempered glass for greenhouse heating drying….. as far as the 450c ballpark that’s required, that is possible using solar on a small scale, without the use of pv.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:56 pm
Greg, you are so funny and light hearted what other dandies do you have?
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:57 pm
Good luck with that Practical!
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 6:46 pm
No hypocrisy here.
Solar is not going to stop climate change from happening, it is already too late for that. What is up for debate now, is whether we will cause a runaway greenhouse event or not. AKA; catastrophic climate change, or TEOTWAWKI.
Solar is not going to keep BAU alive, and it is not going to allow the continuation of MIS, which are at the root causes of climate change to begin with. Without MIS, the manufacturing of electronic appliances ends. Most electronics have useful lifespans of a couple of decades or less. No electronic gadgets, no point in generating electricity.
Solar PV only works well when the sun is shining, unless one has a battery back-up. Batteries also have useful lifespans, as do chargers, controllers, and inverters. Without storage, the electricity generated cannot be used at night, or during much of the long dark cold winter months where I live. The two periods when electricity is most desirable.
I have one greenhouse set up already, and spent my day today picking up parts for a second one. I don’t plan on waiting for 30 or 40 years to recycle the glass from my solar panels. I will in all likelihood be dead by then.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:13 pm
Davy,
Do you not have anything to contribute here anymore, other then to constantly belittle and/or attack any person or nation that you perceive to be a threat to your oligarch’s empire?
Pathetic.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:20 pm
Greg, I contribute things that matter more than your redundant attacks on boat and others because you are satisfying your self-confidence issues.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:29 pm
Boat continuously spouts nonsense Davy. If you find that to be acceptable, then stand up for him. I do not, and as long as he continues to do so, I will continue to call him out.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:38 pm
Widle greg, you just have a hard time with self esteem so you badger people. It is a common problem with older men who are losing their manhood from age.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:43 pm
Just the facts Davy. I’m not interested in anything less.
sidzepp on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 8:08 pm
Isn’t it ironic that there are two ads for motor vehicles on this page, or is it just me?
onlooker on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:17 pm
Yeah in summary cheap oil just allows industrial civilization to continue to plunder and pillage Nature!
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:38 pm
No matter.
7.4 billion rapacious ape are a suicide cancer cult no matter what energy system they use. It is a physical impossibility to “green” 7.4 billion apes who are driven by their abstract reward system. The same limbic system that drives all creatures and is responsible for our dominance to begin with.
The Paris Gravity Well, Part II: Trillionization
“We will not suddenly convert steel mills, cement kilns and road surfacing machines to operate on sunbeams.”
“What this means is the same thing that Gail Tverberg, Richard Heinberg and many others have been saying for a very long time — modern economies are a product of cheap energy. Take that away and they crash and burn. That’s the good news. Garrett says there is no other climate remediation model that works. Civilization is a heat engine whether it is powered by nuclear fusion or photovoltaics. The global economy must crash for humanity to stand a chance. McPherson would take it a step farther and say it is already too late, enjoy what time you have.”
http://peaksurfer.blogspot.ca/2016/01/the-paris-gravity-well-part-ii.html
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:50 pm
Physics is in charge now. The heat always chases the cold.
Warm Arctic Storms Aim to Unfreeze the North Pole Again — That’s 55 Degrees (F) Above Normal For January
“The anchor of these dervishes of Equator-to-Pole heat transfer is the very Winter Storm Jonas that just crippled the Eastern US with record snowfall amounts and storm surges that have beaten some of the highest seas seen during Superstorm Sandy. A second, hurricane force low in the range of 950 mb is predicted to set up between Iceland and Greenland. But the tip of this spear of record atmospheric heat pointed directly at the Arctic is a third, but somewhat milder 990 mb, storm.
And it is this northern low that will draw a leading edge of record warmth into the Arctic. An anomalous, ocean-originating heat front that will spread its pall of air warm enough to melt sea ice during Winter north of Svalbard tomorrow. A swath of near and above-freezing temperatures spreading inexorably Pole-ward. Reinforced by the supporting lows and the synoptic wave of warmth in train, this storm is predicted to drive near or slightly above freezing temperatures into the region of 90 North Latitude by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. An event that would be unprecedented, at least in modern meteorological reckoning. One that may well be unprecedented for the whole of the Holocene.”
http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/24/warm-arctic-storms-aim-to-unfreeze-the-north-pole-again-thats-55-degrees-f-above-normal-for-january/
Dave Thompson on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:54 pm
Ape the only thing to add is that most humans do not want to know about what is coming.
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 1:58 pm
Fast-acting methane from Aliso Canyon leak is boosting global warming
“So far, estimates show the leak has put out the equivalent of 2.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — more greenhouse gas than 440,000 cars emit in a year. Because the surge of pollution is in the form of methane, it will have a more immediate heat-trapping effect on the atmosphere.
Natural gas consists mostly of methane. Health officials say mercaptan and other odorants added to the gas are responsible for the symptoms being reported by Porter Ranch residents, including headache and nausea. The gas also contains compounds such as benzene that can increase cancer risk through long-term exposure.”
http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-porter-ranch-greenhouse-20160124-story.html
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 2:10 pm
“Worst wildlife die-off ever recorded” anywhere on Earth underway on West Coast — Expert: “And we’re not just talking marine die-offs… yeah, it’s a really big deal” — “There are many more species that are getting sick” — “Facing possibility of extinction” — Scientist: “Is it some sort of a toxin that’s there?” (VIDEO)
http://enenews.com/tv-worst-wildlife-die-recorded-underway-west-coast-experts-talking-marine-die-offs-yeah-really-big-deal-many-species-getting-sick-facing-possibility-extinction-scientist-sort-toxin-video
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 2:21 pm
Dave, agreed. That’s where I come in 😉
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 2:31 pm
Plastic now pollutes every corner of Earth
From supermarket bags to CDs, man-made waste has contaminated the entire globe, and become a marker of a new geological epoch
“Humans have made enough plastic since the second world war to coat the Earth entirely in clingfilm, an international study has revealed. This ability to plaster the planet in plastic is alarming, say scientists – for it confirms that human activities are now having a pernicious impact on our world.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/24/plastic-new-epoch-human-damage
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBRquiS1pis
onlooker on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 2:41 pm
“Warm Arctic Storms Aim to Unfreeze the North Pole Again — That’s 55 Degrees (F) Above Normal For January” This is runaway global warming and the precursor to a mass extinction event we are all witnessing. I think everyone may have to purchase alot more popcorn cause the show is getting alot more dramatic.
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 3:39 pm
Onlooker, I’m sure you are aware of the analogy that the earth absorbs the equivalent 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second due to our emissions? Most of that heat has gone into the ocean and is now looking to equalize/chase the cold. Hello Arctic & Antarctic. Hello glaciers. Basic physics, but like Dave says, “most humans do not want to know” and since it’s Jr high science they unknow it.
Flowing from Hot to Cold: The Second Law of Thermodynamics
http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/flowing-from-hot-to-cold-the-second-law-of-thermod.html
There is a lag time of at least 10 years from emissions to warming. Over half of all industrial emissions have come in the last 30 years and they hang around for a long long time. Former carbon sinks are now sources – feedbacks everywhere.
Global Warming Fact: More than Half of All Industrial CO2 Pollution Has Been Emitted Since 1988
http://blog.ucsusa.org/peter-frumhoff/global-warming-fact-co2-emissions-since-1988-764
onlooker on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 3:55 pm
Yes AP, the incredible absorption/sink capabilities has delayed the reckoning of all this CO2 into the atmosphere. The ground zero for this climate Armageddon seems to be the Arctic specifically the ESAS where a huge methane escape threatens immediate rise in world temps and agriculture failure. http://ameg.me/index.php/faq
onlooker on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 3:56 pm
the incredible absorption/sink capabilities of ocean
makati1 on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 5:55 pm
Food for thought:
There is ~20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise locked into Greenland’s ice cover.
There is about 200 feet (60 meters) locked in Antarctica’s ice cover.
What land areas fall into that ~220 feet of ocean rise? Most of the cities of the world. All of the ports. Even inland areas that you think would be safe are not.
Another thought:
What would the shifting of trillions of tons of water weight do to the stabilization of the earth’s crust? Major quakes? Major volcanic eruptions? Antarctica would definitely lift up. What would go down?
Interesting to contemplate. isn’t it?
bug on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 8:07 pm
Mak,yes it is.
That is why it is going to be the greatest show on Earth. And all of us are paticipants in the show. To add to onlooker, more dramatic and comic.
Apneaman on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 10:34 pm
The Cross of the Moment
“A deep-green/deep-time, highly cerebral discussion of the environmental crisis, The Cross of the Moment attempts to connect the dots between Fermi’s Paradox, climate change, capitalism, and collapse. Interviews with top scientists and public intellectuals are woven together into a narrative that is challenging, exhausting, and often depressing as it refuses to accept the easy answers posited by other overly-simplistic climate change documentaries.”
http://disinfo.com/2016/01/the-cross-of-the-moment/
Full length Doc embedded.
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 12:27 pm
Like I been saying, apes can only rebuild and repair the infrastructure, businesses and homes so many times.
This Weekend’s Blizzard Was a ‘Multi-Billion-Dollar’ Disaster
“It is anticipated that this will be the first billion-dollar weather event of 2016 for the United States,” the re-insurer said in a statement. “Given the physical damage to homes, businesses and other structures and automobiles, plus the high costs incurred due to business interruption, it is expected that this will end up being a multi-billion-dollar economic cost.”
http://wxshift.com/news/this-weekends-blizzard-was-a-multi-billion-dollar-disaster
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 12:29 pm
Op-Ed America’s climate refugee crisis has already begun
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0125-herrmann-climate-refugees-20160125-story.html
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 1:13 pm
The Death of Capitalism
http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-death-of-capitalism/
Kenz300 on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 1:33 pm
Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….
China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 1:46 pm
Kenz, one privileged middle class mouth like yours, eats more in a life time than a couple 3rd world towns. The Chinese poor were able to climb out of poverty by making the thousands of consumer products momma bought you growing up including solar panels for entitled white folks. Good deal eh? They turned their country into a fucking toxic waste dump so you could play superior on your device.
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 1:51 pm
Kenz, if your parents would have shown some restraint, or practised sodomy instead (works for me), we would not be in this mess.
DAILY INFOGRAPHIC: IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE AN AMERICAN, HOW MANY EARTHS WOULD WE NEED?
HINT: IT’S A GOOD THING NOT EVERYONE LIVES LIKE AN AMERICAN.
“You’re probably already aware that Americans consume a disproportional amount of the world’s stuff. You may even have bumped into some of the statistics: We make up 5 percent of the global population, but use 20 percent of the world’s energy. We eat 15 percent of the world’s meat. We produce 40 percent of the world’s garbage.
While those numbers do sound impressive, it can be hard to know what to make of them. OK, so we eat 10 billion animals and throw out 16 billion disposable diapers every year. So what?”
http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2012-10/daily-infographic-if-everyone-lived-american-how-many-earths-would-we-need
Boat on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 3:51 pm
Apeman,
These things take time. The US is now giving rights to the gay community. As the gays flourish population should slow. Now if we just ended immigration the population would drop. We import our kids now.
Apneaman on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 4:15 pm
Das Boat, the gay community was not given anything – they fought for it. A fierce and highly coordinated battle plan. Many were ostracised – lost jobs, family, etc. Many were beaten and some died and they were well aware that it was going to happen to some of them before they started. More courage and conviction than today’s whining working classes show. Again, Boat you just make shit up as you go along.
Das Boat, sprechen sie tard? Most of the time.
Boat on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 4:48 pm
Apeman,
Yes, they fought like blacks and women. Good on them. Let me rephrase, Congress voted in rights for the gay community. I am more progressive than you as I believe in rights for all humans. All colors, gender, sex preferance etc. I don’t blame countries for actions, just comment on what I think the implications will be.
I do believe our country should lead in many areas and am left disappointed we are not better at it. But were better than most leading countries in world history. Hannibal were not.
PracticalMaina on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 2:57 pm
Apneaman, you and GregT must feel pretty guilty being on this website all day when your losing your shit on a guy who drops a quick pro solar comment. How can you and Gregt even get on the same side on issues when he is one of those evil solar owners?
And GregT when do you get the time to get online, I thought you would be 2 busy destroying the world by buying your 3rd solar system.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 3:11 pm
Practical, you are wasting your time trying to get along with people that don’t like you for who you are. Unless you are an extremist in their causes you are just going to be rudely slapped when you deviate from their message. Don’t take it personal and get even when the time is right.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 4:11 pm
“And GregT when do you get the time to get online, I thought you would be 2 busy destroying the world by buying your 3rd solar system.”
Statements such as this do nothing to help your credibility Practical. There are thousands of people who read this site on a daily basis. I stand firmly behind what I have said, regardless of your childish rhetoric.
Solar PV is not a sustainable source of electric power generation. To argue this fact only makes you look like a fool.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 4:27 pm
Davy,
Still unable to rise above your emotions I see. You should know better by now.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 4:58 pm
Yea, Greg, you have great vision for those things unless you look in the mirror.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:36 pm
You’re contradicting yourself Davy. Maybe doom-steading wasn’t such a good idea after all? Not too late to go back. Practical will help set you straight.
Myself, I personally can’t unlearn, what I’ve already learned. YMMV.
Practicalmaina on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:37 pm
GREGT just trying to point out some hypocrisy, I wish I had solar installed, in 30-40-50 years when those things start to decline, if there is no means to recycle the silicone,http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/11/solar-panel-silicon-wafer-recovery. You could always try to repurpose the tempered glass for greenhouse heating drying….. as far as the 450c ballpark that’s required, that is possible using solar on a small scale, without the use of pv.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:56 pm
Greg, you are so funny and light hearted what other dandies do you have?
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 5:57 pm
Good luck with that Practical!
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 6:46 pm
No hypocrisy here.
Solar is not going to stop climate change from happening, it is already too late for that. What is up for debate now, is whether we will cause a runaway greenhouse event or not. AKA; catastrophic climate change, or TEOTWAWKI.
Solar is not going to keep BAU alive, and it is not going to allow the continuation of MIS, which are at the root causes of climate change to begin with. Without MIS, the manufacturing of electronic appliances ends. Most electronics have useful lifespans of a couple of decades or less. No electronic gadgets, no point in generating electricity.
Solar PV only works well when the sun is shining, unless one has a battery back-up. Batteries also have useful lifespans, as do chargers, controllers, and inverters. Without storage, the electricity generated cannot be used at night, or during much of the long dark cold winter months where I live. The two periods when electricity is most desirable.
I have one greenhouse set up already, and spent my day today picking up parts for a second one. I don’t plan on waiting for 30 or 40 years to recycle the glass from my solar panels. I will in all likelihood be dead by then.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:13 pm
Davy,
Do you not have anything to contribute here anymore, other then to constantly belittle and/or attack any person or nation that you perceive to be a threat to your oligarch’s empire?
Pathetic.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:20 pm
Greg, I contribute things that matter more than your redundant attacks on boat and others because you are satisfying your self-confidence issues.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:29 pm
Boat continuously spouts nonsense Davy. If you find that to be acceptable, then stand up for him. I do not, and as long as he continues to do so, I will continue to call him out.
Davy on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:38 pm
Widle greg, you just have a hard time with self esteem so you badger people. It is a common problem with older men who are losing their manhood from age.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 7:43 pm
Just the facts Davy. I’m not interested in anything less.
sidzepp on Tue, 26th Jan 2016 8:08 pm
Isn’t it ironic that there are two ads for motor vehicles on this page, or is it just me?