The Limits of Growth

27 Comments on "The Limits of Growth"

Cloud9 on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 9:18 am 



Most of us pretty well understand that the exponential growth of government and government services and the exponential growth of dependence on those services by the general population were at its inception a Ponzi scheme. All Ponzi schemes are dependent on new players being sucked into the scheme. Their cash contributions are used to service the pay outs made to the previous cycle of dependents. The moment that growth stops the system collapses.
Once exponential growth stops, exponential money printing starts. A century of conditioning has prepared the population for incremental inflation. The trick is going to be controlling the inevitable hyperinflation.

Jef on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 9:29 am 



Cloud9 – The only problem is “they” are finding it impossible to get enough money into the hands of the 99% to generate inflation (more money chasing finite goods).

Even big infrastructure projects don’t get enough money into enough peoples hands so the inevitable high oil price that is generated from those projects only bankrupts the 99%. Rinse and repeat.

penury on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 10:05 am 



It was a wonderful ride up, (for those of us in the U,S)I do not think we will enjoy the ride down. But putting the military first is a losing move.

Davy on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 10:59 am 



“Some 60 percent of that figure falls to emerging markets.” And where the most resistance to investment will be once decline is in full swing. The emerging markets are at the greatest risk for development stopping declines. This will bite the G20 in the ass also because these markets are an investment vehicle for them but they have more financial stability and clout to continue on through a decline a little longer.

yellowcanoe on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 11:42 am 



Promoters of infrastructure investment would have you believe that these investments always pay off. Canada learned early in the 20’th century that that wasn’t necessarily the case. Canada’s first transcontinental railroad was a commercial success and facilitated large scale development of Western Canada. As it was a monopoly and didn’t serve all areas suitable for farming there was a clamour for construction of a second transcontinental railroad. Instead, the Federal government and various Provincial governments helped fund the construction of TWO additional transcontinental railroads. It proved to be too much and within 20 years both of the new lines had gone bankrupt and were taken over by the government. It took many decades for the debt governments had taken on to be paid off. Given that we are approaching the limits of growth there is even more of a risk that an infrastructure investment won’t stimulate the economic growth that would be required to make it worthwhile.

joe on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 11:52 am 



Money, debt, oil, politics, religion, its all linked up. Without all acting an a good and healthy way you cant expect the system to hold, and now there is climate change. All economies are at risk, in many ways less developed ones are safer cause they dont have as far to fall. Whats a Somali shepard going to miss when peak oil destroys world trade? Maybe he may visit Mecca only once in his life and maybe his country might get more peaceful if theres less junk to loot and passing ships to hijack. All that said, Peru is drowning and 2016 is officially the hottest year on record, hmmm, this will all be over sooner rather than later folks, sorry kids, all your parents mess up, you got nothing coming to you.

GregT on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 2:44 pm 



“Whats a Somali shepard going to miss when peak oil destroys world trade? ”

Nothing, the same as dirt poor 3rd world substance farmers everywhere. It is us first worlders that are going to be in for an entire world of hurt. In most cases, we are three or more generations removed from self sustainability, and our food production is completely reliant on oil, and petrochemicals.

Jef on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 3:15 pm 



“Whats a Somali shepard going to miss when peak oil destroys world trade? ”

WATER!!!

makati1 on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 7:41 pm 



GregT, you understand how the world works. Some here do not. Those that have the most (1st world Westerners and their wannabees) will suffer the most pain. Those who never had, will not notice. Most Western countries are no longer self sufficient in food without petrochemical injections that will cease to exist after the collapse. Some Eastern countries will lose production, but they will just go back to rice and a bit of protein as they have subsisted on for millennia. There will be a die off, but it will be greatest where the most dependence on commercial farming is highest. Like the U$.

makati1 on Wed, 22nd Mar 2017 7:44 pm 



Jef, last time I looked, there was not much water being shipped around the world except in food stuffs. Migration will take care of the water needs. And who knows what changes will benefit countries like Somalia. They could have flood problems, not drought. Ask California what is happening there.

Davy on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 5:37 am 



“What’s a Somali Shepard going to miss when peak oil destroys world trade? ” “Nothing, the same as dirt poor 3rd world substance farmers everywhere.”

We have like 5-10 times too many people in the world without global trade. People who think subsistence farmers in the 3rd world will not suffer a loss from the end of global trade forget that there is a significant amount of overpopulation in the 3rd world. The 3rd world is very much at risk. The 3rd world may have once been relatively stable pre globalism and population growth. That was pre WWII. Today most of the 3rd world has been ecologically raped with environmental quality plummeting along with that huge population growth. The math and science says otherwise for no effect for the 3rd world subsistence farmers. Peak oil and the green revolution allowed too many people especially in the 3rd world. A die off is going to happen there also this is especially true in Asia where overpopulation is off the charts. People are dying now in Somali. There is a building famine there now as we speak. Do those 3rd world romanticist not see that or don’t want to see that?

One day if there are survivors then maybe a poor Somali Shepard will once again be dirt poor but with some safety from his low impact ways. Another unfortunate for the Somali shepherd is climate change is making his country unlivable. The 3rd world is in the cross hairs of climate change with many areas in ME and Africa forecasted to become unlivable. We are all in this boat together and those talking up the 3rd world and down the 1st world are doing it for emotional reasons. It’s a white guilt thing. That’s fine but don’t confuse that with science.

In the case of our board 3rd world romanticist, makati, it is anti-western agenda. One needs only see his Philippines had 7MIL in 1900 and now 100MIL. Forests and fisheries are now in severe decline and localized failure. Soil erosion is rampant on the mountainous terrain from over development in a country with heavy downpours. Climate change is forecast to be the worst there in regards to destructive storms. Yet, he is promoting this place as a refuge. It does not add up to me.

joe on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 6:38 am 



Davy, do you know that once the Sahara Desert was green and completely habitable for humans? In fact some speculate that civilisation began there but climate changed and mass migration to Egypt and Syria gave rise to the early civilisations we know of. We don’t know whats buried in the desert sand! Whats my point? That people will move on. The desert herders (Im not talking about those who are tech-green dependent) wont miss us when we are gone, it will be their job (not ours) to put out the cat and turn off the lights.

Davy on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 7:04 am 



Joe, get a grip man. My comment is about a common die off from overpopulation and planetary decline. This is not about a competition between the 3rd world and 1st world like you and others with agendas and emotional attachments want it to be. There will be people that survive in the 1st world who won’t miss us when we are gone. They will be too busy finding food and shelter. You guys are romanticize about the poor 3rd world’ers and I say we are all in this together.

A die off is across the board. The 3rd world is overpopulated and there will likely be a die off there no less severe as a 1st world die off from a collapse of complexity. Your Sahara history lesson does not fit well why, because this is about a global civilization and its destruction. It is also about a planetary one. This means climate and environmental disruption so there are few places to migrate too like your romantic Sahara narrative. All cultures will be impacted by the end of globalism making immigration pointless based on current standards of affluence. Nobody will have a pot to piss in.

A die off does not discriminate based on income class, race, and culture. It strikes per ecological conditions. It strikes all and without guilt. It does the same thing to humans as animals. Some of your desert herders may survive but many won’t. There will be 1st world’ers survive and their survival will be a return to what we all once were and that is not modern.

I also ask you to review how many of your romantic subsistence herder have cell phones and ask yourself how many are really like you think they are. Modernism has touched everyone directly or indirectly. Even those without most modern luxuries are exposed to those who are dependent on them making them tainted. Very few subsistence locations will not be touched by collapse and there will be even fewer places to wonder to.

Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 7:23 am 



do you know that once the Sahara Desert was green and completely habitable for humans?

http://riadzany.blogspot.nl/2015/02/photo-of-day-rain-turns-sahara-green.html

tk on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 10:47 am 



Spot on, Davy, unfortunately.

tk on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 10:51 am 



Unfortunately, from a human centered point of view. I might add.

From an universal, natural point of view it might be totally indifferent if we have exist or not.

GregT on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 11:10 am 



“This is not about a competition between the 3rd world and 1st world like you and others with agendas and emotional attachments want it to be.”

No it is not, but keep trying to make it one. It is about a competition between those who can live sustainably without inputs from fossil fuels and the global marketplace , and those who cannot. If anybody should understand the problems associated with going without, it should be you. There are millions upon millions of people living throughout this planet who are already living with far less inputs from outside than you or I, and have been doing so forever. Almost none of those people live in first world nations. The more reliant on a resource base a society is, the harder it will be to adapt when those resources are no longer available. This isn’t exactly rocket science Davy.

This isn’t yet another America vs them other 7.1 billion human beings thing. Take fossil fuels out of the equation, and the first world is a dead man walking. Even you have admitted, after all of your preparations, that survival would be questionable. I have visited many small villages throughout my travels where people are living just fine, a multiple day walk from the nearest road, and have been doing so since the dawn of time.

Climate change, and it’s associated calamities, are an entirely different subject. There may very well be, no survivors at all.

GregT on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 11:18 am 



“I also ask you to review how many of your romantic subsistence herder have cell phones and ask yourself how many are really like you think they are.”

I live within the first world Davy. There is no cell phone coverage here.

Apneaman on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 11:23 am 



joe it appears that they made their own dessert. BTW, there is nowhere else to move on to anymore. It’s the last supper for the Cancer.

The Sahara Desert used to be green and lush. Then humans showed up.

Solving the mystery of the Sahara

“A new study suggests humans played a big role. Author David Wright, an environmental archeologist at Seoul National University, says that as humans spread west from the Nile river 8,000 years ago, they brought with them sheep, cows, and goats that gobbled up, mowed down, and trampled over native vegetation. This transformed the landscape and altered the local climate.”

“Goats are the prime suspects,” said Wright. “I’ve literally seen a goat eat a brick — they aren’t picky eaters at all, and they eat a lot for their size. It wouldn’t take many goats on a stressed out landscape to make a pretty big impact.”

http://www.popsci.com/sahara-desert-drought-humans

Apneaman on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 3:17 pm 



Exclusive: Lead poisoning afflicts neighborhoods across California

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lead-california-exclusive-idUSKBN16T18Y

Damage and Death From Toxic Chemicals Are Reaching Epidemic Levels

http://wakingscience.com/2017/03/damage-death-toxic-chemicals-reaching-epidemic-levels/

The Forces Driving Middle-Aged White People’s ‘Deaths Of Despair’

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

makati1 on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 6:42 pm 



Ap, I know I put a lot of negative stuff about America here, because I want to point out that there are other places as good,and in many cases, better, to live. The 1st world is so swamped with government propaganda that they believe they live in some paradise that will only get a bit less comfortable while the rest of us live in some hell hole “3rd world” that is destined to be wiped out the first day.

Like you point out, my farm neighbors will survive the coming collapse of the petro world much better then my old neighborhood in the U$. Until last year, they didn’t even have electric, and a phone is way out of their ability to consume. It is 1/4 mile down to the road and 5 miles to the town nearby, which got its first fast food restaurant last year. A Jolliebee. It has a “wet market” but no grocery store. I prefer to take my chances with these folks over typical Americans any day.

Davy on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 6:57 pm 



makati, please, you are so far off the chart of negative America and positive makati and his new home that you make we chuckle when you try to down play it. Don’t flatter yourself that you are somehow a 3rd world’ers living on your stipend with your cheap club med life. You are about as fake as they come.

There you go again talking the fantasy farm. Honestly makati, when is the last time you were there. I am here every day and you are here every day so that means you are not a farmer. You are a fantasy farmer.

makati1 on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 7:31 pm 



Dream on Davy. You are so deluded that reality is not even in your dictionary. lol

makati1 on Thu, 23rd Mar 2017 9:29 pm 



BTW: The fruit and nut orchard is now about 4 years old and the market crops are taro and pineapple. The free range chickens are multiplying nicely. I do not have to be there to be improving the farm. The caretaker looks after things when we are not there. And his salary is P3K/mo or about $2 per day. What does your hired help cost, Davy? LMAO

Dooma on Fri, 24th Mar 2017 12:11 am 



Davy, may I ask if you have ever visited a ‘developing’ country? Do you have some sort of idea of just how bad the impending doom is going to be for affluent nations such as ours? I am not having a go at you but I have a genuine interest in if you have traveled to such areas? IMHO the higher you are the bigger the fall is going to be and the that includes a lower sense of community. Many people in poorer nations have been using the barter system for hundreds of years. I am afraid that countries like yours are going to use the barrel of a gun and it is not going to go down very well. Also, having no electricity for long periods of time is the rule not the exception. Get ready for a steep learning curve in a place where paranoia and mistrust are already rampant.

Davy on Fri, 24th Mar 2017 4:48 am 



Yes, I have been in 3rd world Dooma and you? I have also done social work in the ghetto in north St. Louis and you? In the 80’s and 90’s I did lots of traveling as part of my work. I have been to many countries some 3rd world. I was a believer in globalism in the 80’s and 90’s because I thought sustainable development the answer to our problems. I make it part of my study of the environment and social justice to know the impending doom for all. It is part of my doom message. My message is embrace decline and turn away from affluence with lifeboats and hospices. This is for reasons of strength in adversity and better sustainability. And you Dooma what are you doing and practicing. All I see is anti-Americanism.

I agree the higher you are the further you will fall in general not in the particular. There are many very strong wealthy people. They got wealthy because they are smart and strong. That is the particulars on the rich. In general many of the rich world one billion are going to feel significant pain because they have been weakened by affluence. Many very rich are actually off the charts into the absurd. I know these people because I once lived among them. Many here have never know the rich life. I know it. There are a bunch of assholes here that attack you if you say that. It is not what it is cracked up to be and many rich loose it through stupidity. I have seen rich get poor and poor get rich and it is not pretty sometimes either way.

Many people in poorer countries have used barter for a long time. That has greatly changed for many poor with the increasing affluence in Asia. A huge middle class has been born in Asia. Countries like “ours” Dooma will be at the barrel of the gun. You can’t help yourself pointing fingers at the US when your country has a better standard of living than the US. I am talking real standards and ones that account for the 3rd world in the US. Australia does not have the poor we have. This is why when you read these stupid country comparisons the US always scores so low. We have a multiclass society. The US is a 1st world country and a 3rd world country.

I live in one of the poorest areas in the nation. You live like a king in your Australia compared with many poor people in my Ozarks. Your attempt at educating me on the poor is a mask for US criticism but I have many years of education with these countries and though my own intellectual interests in geography and social science.

The problem I have with the 3rd world’ers romanticist here on this board is the blame and complain. Many 3rd world’ers romanticist here is either an anti-American/anti-western or truly unfamiliar with the real deal. We have agendas that want to blame and complain here for emotional reasons. They hate the US what better way than to complain about the 3rd world and blame it on the US/West.

The 3rd world is going to be hit hard. For many of these innocent people it is going to be horrible and immediate. We are at planetary limits now and in broad based decline. These countries that are most insignificant will not get the global investment that others will that are integral to the maintenance of the whole system. To say that the 1st world will fall hard and the 3rd world will be fine because they are already dirt poor is just emotional agenda and does not reflect the fact that of the 6BIL world poor there is a vast range of conditions and local that have a huge variance in happiness. You take someone like makati. He talks up his Filipino people with how happy and wonderful their poor life is on the one hand. On the other hand he talks in general about the dirt poor 3rd world’ers suffering and dirt poor with nothing to lose. Which is it? Is everything based on money and wealth?

We have some pretty shallow binary people here. Rich is bad and poor is good. Rich are weak and poor are strong. Developed countries will fall the hardest in living standards but there are plenty of strong western people. There are many weak 3rd world people. I get tired of the people here blowing their agenda up my ass and trying to tell me I should be guilty. I am responsible not guilty. I don’t travel now like I used to because of social justice reason and climate change. There are times I have to travel for family reasons and that is part of my relative sacrifice. Until society gives a damn I am only going to practice relative sacrifice. Once society embraces real change then I will. If the commons are getting trashed my little contribution won’t mean shit. So Dooma, how are you in your rich Australia? You have further to fall then my local. We are already poor here. What big wonderful Australian city are you in?

Davy on Fri, 24th Mar 2017 5:06 am 



Bullshit makati, you can’t claim to be a farmer and just send money. If that were the case we would have lots of farmers who donate money. WTF, you are always giving advice about farming and talking about how you live the doom and prep life. This is bullshit because all you do is live the club med life of an American expat living on the cheap in Manila on a US social security stipend. Real farming is getting your hands dirty and learning by doing. You sit on your ass and blame and complain from the financial district of Manila gazing out at the high-rises from 27th floor.

I pay my help $15 bucks an hour. It is a fair wage for hard work. You know how much I have spent this year on help, $800. Most of that is professionals doing work I am not qualified to do. They get $30 or more depending on their skills. This is why I have learned many trades. I can’t afford too many professionals. I have to do a little of everything here to make ends meet. I have a guy that does welding. I do minor plumbing and electrical and hire out the more in-depth stuff. I have guys that help me with the animals because it is more than one man can do. I have to pay a vet occasionally. You are a fantasy farmer makati. I don’t want to hear about your nut trees and taro BS. When you tell us you will be on the farm and we hear nothing of you then I will believe you when you check in after a month or so of hard living. I don’t think you can survive hard living. You’re a big talking 75 year fake.