The McKinsey Company has recently issued a report, Powering Africa. The first sentence makes a statement that is obvious—“There is a direct correlation between economic growth and electricity supply”. It goes on to state that “if sub-Saharan Africa is to fulfill its promise, it needs power—and lots of it”. The sub-Saharan region is starved for electricity, as are many other emerging economies. According to McKinsey, no matter what criterion is used—energy access, installed capacity, or consumption, the region’s power sector is seriously underdeveloped.
Without access to commercial energy, countries cannot achieve, much less sustain economic growth. Although the region’s potential capacity is great, electric power access is severely limited. McKinsey notes that Countries with electrification rates of less than 80 percent of the population consistently suffer from reduced GDP per capita. Even countries like Angola and Gabon that have significant natural resources, still have electrification rates under 80 percent. In short without adequate access to commercial power, prosperity is only a dream. As some have observed, energy is an economy’s oxygen.
From the standpoint of access, sub-Saharan Africa’s situation is the world’s worst.” It has 13 percent of the world’s population, but 48 percent of the share of the global population without access to electricity. The only other region with a similar imbalance is South Asia, with 23 percent of the world’s population and 34 percent of the people without access to electricity.
When all countries without commercial power are taken into account, there are over 1.3 billion people who are living in the most devastating state of poverty imaginable. They have high disease and mortality rates and no access to potable water. Infant mortality is incredibly high.
In spite of these conditions that affect about 20% of the world’s population, the developed world is focused on suppressing CO2 emissions globally. Without access to coal or natural gas for power generation, the condition of the world’s poorest will not improve. According to McKinsey, it will take until 2040 to achieve electrification rates of 70%-80% because of the challenges to getting power to where it is needed the most.
It has to be the height of arrogance for the climate establishment with its good lifestyle to condemn over 1 billion people to continued poverty, excessive disease and mortality rates so that it can avoid a hypothetical catastrophe sometime in the distant future. Where is their decency and concern for their fellow man? If we want a better world, we first have to separate real problems from illusions and then commit to actions that actually make a difference. That clearly is not happening with the excessive and obsessive focus on climate change.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:40 pm
Mckinsey shmickinsey. Go check into how much they were riding Enron’s jock. How much work they did and how they were “on the CEO agenda”. [And I’m not accusing them of any fraud, but of not creating value or recognizing real levers of value creation.] They were super hot on the green energy thing despite lacking hard core engineering insights or even very good economic cost models. And they fell onto shale very late, no prescience and pretty much in contrast to all the Solyndra-style stuff they were hyping. And lately Africa is all sexy to be into. They’ve also become more and more neo-liberal and loosely aligned with the Democratic party (c.f. mizz Clinton…and no she did NOT get grilled on her cases for getting in like a typical candidate does.) Oh…and they totally goobered up their 9-11 report. Wrote it to say good things about the Fire Department…and did not follow up on insights (later shown true) that implied that the fire chiefs screwed up operating the building comms circuits. There are some smart people there…but I would not trust a report from them as anything special…especially study-sales generating puff pieces.
ffkling on Tue, 5th May 2015 3:05 am
New flash for all idiots………McKinsey Company will write a report in support of any position for enough MONEY. I wonder who provided the financial underwriting for this report?
BobInget on Tue, 5th May 2015 9:22 am
Every American should spend a year, trying to make a living in what we formally called ‘third world’ nations. Wordsmiths use a more encouraging ’emerging economy’ today.
This experience would be far more useful then a year at Ive League intensive volley ball.
penury on Tue, 5th May 2015 9:44 am
Another article pointing out that the human race has problems. Not all members are treated equally but so what? We all know the problems, we can all look out the window at the oncoming wreck, but what we really would like is “do you have any solutions or do you just get paid to provide obvious facts?
Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 10:09 am
Bobby, send em here to the MO Ozarks. There are plenty of third world livin folks around here. I will make an arrangement where they can live with a family. It will be a good education. Lots of fresh air and clean water in the local rivers.
drwater on Tue, 5th May 2015 10:22 am
“It has to be the height of arrogance for the climate establishment with its good lifestyle to condemn over 1 billion people to continued poverty… so that it can avoid a hypothetical catastrophe sometime in the distant future.”
1. Too much population for the resources – stop having so many kids.
2. These guys just want to cram everybody into a few electrified cities so that they can have their third world manufacturing slaves.
3. Solar + batteries will leapfrog the need for a grid in most of this area just like cell phones leapfrogged land lines. It would be criminal to build a bunch of fossil fuel power plants and put these countries into even more debt and fuel dependency, not to mention the GHG emissions causing real problems today, not hypothetical.
Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 10:59 am
Dr, the only place we are going to leap frog is to a hot pot of a slow boil. We will be cooked by climate eventually but sooner by a fragmenting global system.
Yet, I agree with you let’s build out as much solar and batteries as we can anywhere possible. We can do that instead of a new skyscraper or nascar track we would be way ahead in the collapse mitigation game.
Personally I don’t think we will have much more fossil fuel energy build out when BAU shatters from oil supply and demand destruction. What we have now will cover the new lower economic activity we are in the vicinity of.
Bob Owens on Tue, 5th May 2015 12:04 pm
Another absolutely awful article. What a day!
penury on Tue, 5th May 2015 12:49 pm
I grew up in an area which had no electricity, houses had no plumbing families had no cars, trucks were for hauling products not people. Did we suffer? No, did we have it hard? we did not think so. We all lived the way we lived, we did not care about the rest of the world. People will adapt if there is time. Certainly the majority of the population will perish but for those who are able to adapt and have access to the skills and knowledge have a slight chance. But humans as a genus are I am afraid doomed.
Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:18 pm
Pen, here in the MO Ozarks they got electricity after WWII in many of the rural locations. The old culture before electricity was a subsistence agricultural living with a sprinkling of rich farmers. This was primarily a cattle producing area. The people were generally poor but managed through community, hard work, and luck. People were stronger then and they had values we lack today.
It is my hope if there is a collapse still allowing civilization, we can return to some of those values. That may be wishful thinking because so much has been destroyed. There are so many people now and so many poisons. Lastly we have a destabilized climate that may make many locals unrecognizable from what they used to be pre fossil fuels.
This next 10 years will be a fantastic time in the respect of dramatic events with destructive social change and violent economic gyrations. Those of us here who study these things day in and day out will be ahead in that we will be in our elements. Our elements are opining on doom and hopium. Which will win? It is my opinion it will become a local answer. Some of us have the potential to see this through longer than others but I personally think there will be a point where all locals will be faced with profound issues of survival.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:23 pm
Davy — Instead of a “fantastic” time, I would have phrased it “a turbulent time”. But that’s just me. And I would have used one less zero on the stated timeframe for that fantastic/turbulent time to play out…
Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:44 pm
Too cheap to meter=ROTFL Humm I wonder who will pay? These guys really are to big to fail. Should be entertaining listing to politicians and their experts tell the public there is no choice but to bail these fuckers out too.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Radioactive and Short on Cash to Pay for Closures
“The question is who will pay — for Humboldt Bay, and for dozens of other reactors that are in the process of closing or might soon. Nuclear operators like PG&E are supposed to lay up enough money to cover the costs, similar to how corporations fund pensions. Turns out, most haven’t.”
“Yet 82 of the 117 U.S. nuclear power plants, including seven in the process of shutting down, don’t have enough cash on hand to close safely, according to NRC records. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-03/radioactive-and-short-on-cash
hiruitnguyse on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:45 pm
Moovin’ on down…..http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.jp/2015/05/endangered-species-self-employed-middle.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+google/RzFQ+%28oftwominds%29
Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 1:53 pm
All the people we should fear the most are in charge – Forked tongued white men in suits. These are the ones who will rob you and send the men with guns if you protest or refuse. The Russians? The Chinese? They never did me any harm. Don’t even know one. Not one of them every put a tax dollar of mine in their pocket then turned around and gave it to a 1%er.When the fossil carbon energy in no longer economical, they will go back to the old forms of energy – slavery or indentured servants AKA-your kids and grand kids.
Cassie on Tue, 5th May 2015 2:10 pm
That must be why the plethora of gun control measures being enacted in the USA. So many guns, so little time….
Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 2:31 pm
N/R, garden, bees, grapes, and orchard all doing ok here. Your garden and bees shaping up?
Northwest Resident on Tue, 5th May 2015 3:09 pm
Yeah Davy — I have got it all going. The bees are buzzing and the veggies are growing. What more could I ask for! I have a nice strawberry patch going, but had to net it off to keep the birds out now the berries are getting ripe. But still, some bug or bugs are chewing holes in the tasty little berries as they ripen. I don’t know who the villain is, but if I ever catch that bug, there will be a squishing in its future. Times like this tempt me to use pesticides, but I quickly regain my senses and say no to that. Wish I had an orchard! But I am surrounded by filbert/hazelnut and wine orchards, many of them walking distance, so I do have “backup”. I’m looking at those beehive frames and as far as I can tell, they are doing well. Fun times! Been stung yet?
JuanP on Tue, 5th May 2015 5:50 pm
NR, down here strawberries get eaten by small ants, but they make very big holes. Check to see if you find ants on them.
Davy on Tue, 5th May 2015 6:35 pm
Juan/NR, I have a wonderful strawberry patch. We have sandy acidic soils here. They love it. Anyway I have black bird problems. I got this to deal with them:
http://www.nixalite.com/PDFs/SWSTSnapTraps.pdf
I also plan on using this trap post collapse to get bird meat.
Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 8:24 pm
Another rig company stumbles
Diamond Offshore reports a $256 million loss during the first quarter.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2015/05/04/Another-rig-company-stumbles/1561430739883/
Northwest Resident on Tue, 5th May 2015 8:39 pm
JuanP and Davy — Hey, I am getting myself one or two of those bird traps. Catch them fresh — that’s the way to go.
And yes, I strongly suspect ants. We have lots of little sugar ants crawling around here. I have tolerated them up until recently, then they started invading my new bee hives and I went ballistic. Boric acid mixed with dry dog food and sugar, ground up into a really fine powder, then a little water added to make it all stick together. Suddenly, hardly any ants anywhere! We’ll see if that eliminates the unauthorized strawberry munching or not.
Apneaman on Tue, 5th May 2015 11:15 pm
Davy, save your money. Birds don’t walk backwards.
Google – “Stovepipe Bird Trap”
People think the birds are so stupid but it’s the same as humans and fossil fuels – we both think we are getting “free” energy. Whoops
Apneaman on Wed, 6th May 2015 12:38 am
The Devastation of CO2
Nova: Permian Extinction [13min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ig6zKiNTc