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Page added on February 20, 2017

Peak oil demand and why it’s basically impossible to predict

In the past, forecasters had a relatively simple method of estimating whether demand for oil would increase or decrease and by how much.

For the most part, they simply looked at the economy. If people were making more money, it was safe to assume they would spend more, travel more and head to the car dealership more often.

Now, technologies like electric cars, ride-sharing programs, and autonomous-driving systems are forcing experts to completely rethink their expectations for the future. Their job is becoming a lot more challenging.

‘What you’re seeing is a lot of uncertainty in the transportation sector.’ – Kevin Birn, IHS

There’s still a correlation between oil demand and economic activity, but a number of other factors are also at play, making it exceptionally difficult to project how much oil we’ll consume in the future.

That’s why some major industry players are presenting multiple alternative models of what could happen with oil prices in the next few decades. Forecasters are obsessed with trying to figure out when global oil demand will peak around the globe. That would be a milestone — the point at which the fossil fuel industry would begin to contract. And it could have drastic implications for a crude oil exporting country like Canada.

Respected energy forecasters such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) both expect oil demand to grow until about 2040. However, the IEA and Norwegian oil giant Statoil have also said that — under certain conditions — global oil demand could crest in the 2020s and then start to fall.

Oil demand will peak in 2020s “then we’ll have a shrinking oil industry” as vehicles are electrified, says Statoil boss Eldar Saetre #OM2016 pic.twitter.com/LFAQaPVkzR

— @andrew_ward1

The stark contrast between those outlooks reflects the unpredictability around the automotive industry.

“What you’re seeing is a lot of uncertainty in the transportation sector, a lot of changes undergoing there, and you’re seeing that play out with forecasters whose business is trying to model what that may mean for the oil markets,” said Kevin Birn, a senior director with IHS, a global business research firm.

Birn says IHS has three different scenarios about future oil demand and that analysis is ongoing. The organization is trying to determine the impact of electric cars, ride-hailing services and autonomous-driving technology.

“We have a large study going on called ‘reinventing the wheel.’ We’re looking a lot at the uncertainties,” said Birn.

Kevin Birn explains the three global oil demand scenarios of IHS0:44

Autonomous impact

Companies such as Mercedes and Tesla already offer some semi-autonomous driving technology and just about every automotive company is developing its own system. There’s no consensus about how this will impact fuel use.

It was initially assumed that a computer would be more efficient at driving a car than a human, because with its cameras and other technology, it wouldn’t brake or accelerate as hard. That would mean fewer trips to the gas pump.

But more recently experts have suggested that autonomous driving could actually boost vehicle use — and therefore gasoline sales — by alleviating the annoyance of being stuck behind the wheel on a lengthy road trip or slow summer weekend commute back from the mountains or lake.

Notwithstanding the advent of electric vehicles such as this Audi A3 e-tron, respected forecasters expect oil demand to grow until about 2040. (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)

“Maybe a commute from Canmore to Calgary wouldn’t be so unbearable if I didn’t have to pay attention. I can read the newspaper or do some work,” said Birn. “You see scenarios where autonomous vehicles could actually encourage greater fuel consumption.”

Forecasters are also grappling with another wildcard — government policy.

Canada and the U.S. are forcing car companies to meet rising fuel efficiency standards, which should lead to lower gasoline demand in both countries. With a change in government south of the border, this policy is up in the air.

“The only thing that can prevent this is if policymakers soften the mandated increase in fuel efficiency standards in new cars sold, which [President Donald] Trump suggested he may do in the U.S.,” said the Bank of America Merrill Lynch in its latest research report Global Energy Weekly.

(CBC)

“A change in policy would impact targets only from 2021 to 2025. However, they are now under midterm review, and these are the targets Trump may change,” said the report.

In other parts of the world, such as Beijing and Delhi, government policies are in place to curb vehicle use and combat pollution and crippling traffic woes. Restrictions on when people can drive and what types of vehicles they can buy could lower gasoline demand in those markets and others that follow suit.

Forecasters have a considerable amount of homework and guess work to predict how much oil the world will use in the years and decades to come.

(cbc.ca)

36 Comments on "Peak oil demand and why it’s basically impossible to predict"

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 7:19 am

Canada’s oilpatch needs new customers. Who will buy?

The oil age will end with “cancer monkeys from the Alberta oil patch” trying to peddle their gunk… and nobody is interested.ROFL

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 10:14 am

These are the interesting infographics:

https://cdn.howmuch.net/content/images/1600/government-debt-per-capita-0bb2.jpg

Country ranking public debt per capita:

Japan………85k
USA………..42k
Canada……..42k
Britain…….36k
France……..35k
Greece……..32k
Germany…….30k
Netherlands…29k
China……….1k
Russia………0k

Western nations look like every citizen has bought a brand new car on a 100% loan.

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 12:57 pm

Stella Lux solar family car, can, no HAS driven 1500 km in Australia on a single charge (tanks to solar roof), where normal commercially available e-cars have a maximum range of 400 km:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg6sGqYUqRU

And here the team (from my old university) that will compete in the Solar Challenge 2017:

https://solarteameindhoven.nl/team-2017/

I realize that the student composition doesn’t match North-American diversity standards, but then again, who gives a f* about North-American diversity standards other than the ADL, SPLC, CNN and the rest of the deep state, currently walking on its last legs.

peakyeast on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 1:37 pm

@cloggie… Well one could say that since all the nations and world economy is living on borrowed time there is some sense to “dying” with as big a debt as possible… Its all in the timing..

I know people who wouldnt care if they died with 1 mio$ in debt or 100 mio$. Actually I suspect most people would prefer to die with 100 mio$ in debt if they could manage to get the loans and spend it all.

GregT on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 1:45 pm

“And here the team (from my old university) that will compete in the Solar Challenge 2017:”

One, possibly two, blond haired blue eyed non-diverse homo sapiens amongst the entire crew. The rest certainly appear to have mongolian DNA, and one is no doubt of Middle Eastern decent.

So much for the pure blooded Aryan race. Currently walking on it’s last legs. C’est dommage.

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:12 pm

One, possibly two, blond haired blue eyed non-diverse homo sapiens amongst the entire crew. The rest certainly appear to have mongolian DNA, and one is no doubt of Middle Eastern decent.

You need new glasses Greg. I know that you are deeply into Mongolians like Chief Seattle (provided he is upgraded with texts invented by New England liberals, folks like you), but this is ridiculous. Here is how real Mongolians look like, academics from your own former home town (VIU MBA Vancouver Island), where you have been de facto pushed out from, because you fear this diversity in case the shtf.

https://viumbaexperience.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/new-picture.jpg

So much for the pure blooded Aryan race. Currently walking on it’s last legs. C’est dommage.

You can hardly suppress your glee, but you are so wrong. Since November 8 we have a giant wedge in the US between the Euro-conservatives and the liberals. That rift is never going to be healed again. The little problem the white race had, aka America and its hidden leadership, is almost solved. And completely after the “Fourth Turning”.

I used to think that, because you understand, far more than average, everything related to power structure in Anglosphere, that you were opposed to the policies of the deep state. But you are not. You are perhaps against the wars of the deep state, but the One World agenda, you do not oppose at all. You support it.

That’s fine, I am not condemning you, as your complete lack of sense of identity is a direct consequence of the history of your “country” (colony rather).

The only thing remaining is to congratulate the “Mongols” of Vancouver with their new acquisition. Not that it was difficult to get it. These people have a more than 2000 year old identity.

Boy do you need this climate doom to mask the fact that you have no home.

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:42 pm

Paris over the past few months, one giant chaos, indistinguishable from civil war in this libtard city, who seriously believed that “integration” with other religions/races is possible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4umX2kZoWA

The civil war will soon begin and will spread over France and America. The Soros empire was the worst disaster in the history of the white race but it will be over soon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe

742 million Europeans between Atlantic and Ural mountains, of which 3.9% Muslims in the EU and 6% in total (2010, add perhaps 5 million extra since). That clean up operation will be easy.

The real prize will be heartland USA. We will find quite a few Americans there who prefer to live European rather than third world lives. Their problem is how to get rid of Washington. Our problem is to eliminate the possibility of a last minute alliance between Washington and Beijing. Their interest is our interest.

Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:54 pm

clogsucker, forth turning? You been doing so much turning that you’re permanently dizzy.

Encyclopedia of American Loons

It’s … The Encyclopedia of American loons! Our new and exciting series presenting a representative sample of American loons from A-Z.

#1182: William Strauss & Neil Howe

“Pseudoscience presented as bullshit; no more, no less. But the work of William Strauss and Neil Howe is nevertheless taken rather seriously by many across the political spectrum. Their basic idea is that society turns on a repeating set of four 20-year cycles, and by identifying these cycles they purport to be able to tell the future. It really isn’t much better supported by actual evidence than crystal ball gazing, but since their theory can be used, like crystal ball gazing, to make people hear what they want to hear it hasn’t been particularly hard to get people to listen.”

http://americanloons.blogspot.ca/2014/10/1182-william-strauss-neil-howe.html

Gee clogtwit, wherever did you get idea that the humans are in the “forth turning of some bullshit pseudoscience generational theory”?

Who fed you that horseshit?

Steve Bannon Believes The Apocalypse Is Coming And War Is Inevitable
Trump’s top adviser thinks we’re in “the great Fourth Turning in American history.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/steve-bannon-apocalypse_us_5898f02ee4b040613138a951

Pseudoscience with a prophecy is pseudoreligion. Steve Bannon is the new alt right prophet and will do whatever he can to make the imaginary “fourth turning” a self fulfilling prophecy. He’s real close to those Buttons.

Clog will buy into anything that reinforces his magical thinking. Fucking sad old clown.

The only thing the humans are turning into is dust. The last turning.

makati1 on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:10 pm

Ap, I have to disagree with you on this one. Cycles DO exist for the same reason that they mention. Mostly population generations and the length of human memory. About 80 years. If you look at the history timeline of wars and economics, they DO rhyme.

We are currently in an era similar to the one they project. Can you deny that fact? It may be the end of the rhyme because there will be no one left to go to the next step.

I doubted their idea also. Then I started doing some history research and saw how their cycles did fit into history close enough that they could be correct. I do not need some online “authority” to tell me who to believe or what to believe. I still use my brain cells, experience and reasoning to decide. I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one.

GregT on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 11:29 pm

“742 million Europeans between Atlantic and Ural mountains, of which 3.9% Muslims in the EU and 6% in total (2010, add perhaps 5 million extra since). That clean up operation will be easy.”

Yup, all you need to do is to figure out a way to murder around 50 million of your fellow human beings. Easy peasy.

makati1 on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 11:52 pm

GregT, ask the Germans. They seem to be good at that. Lots of past experience, but I doubt it will be a problem much longer. When the SHTF, a lot of people are going to die, and not just Muslims.

I don’t think there will be a “reset” this time. Just a constant slide to the bottom. How many will die? One billion? Two? More? I could not guess, but I am sure it will not be the ones most Westerners expect to go first.

GregT on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 11:59 pm

And cloggie,

If you think for one second that the plan was for everyone to get along, you would be sadly mistaken. The plan was to create division, and they were counting on the extremists from both sides to bring the system down. The vast majority of people only want to live their lives in peace. They just want to get along. Those people are of no use to the globalists’ agenda.

joe on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 1:19 am

Cloggie is using psuedo stats to mislead. What percent is the muslim population between LONDON AND BERLIN! That’s the bit that counts. Of course he’s also lying cause no matter what, Turkey is part of Europe cause they need the oil and gas routes.
Nice try clogliar

onlooker on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 2:30 am

The plan was to create division. Even more precisely to create endless war. Prophetically, by George Orwell, a war not meant to be won simply continuously waged. To remain in power employing the military to protect the homeland , to project and use military might around the world to secure resources and other desirable goals and to create nationalistic furor and with terrorism as the threat clamp down on dissent and opposition at home conveniently by extensive monitoring under the pretext of keeping people safe

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 2:42 am

Yup, all you need to do is to figure out a way to murder around 50 million of your fellow human beings. Easy peasy.

“Fellow human beings”?

Greg is in the “Chief Seattle mode” again and wants to drink herbal tea with this rabble:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4umX2kZoWA

I’m sure Greg can dig up some libtard from New England who will insert some high flying environmental texts into the mouths of these “noble savages”, just like they did with “Chief Seattle”, who himself was a fine warrior and killer of his “fellow human beings”.

Is this your sister Greg?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX5PSBOzmWc

[part 1]

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 2:44 am

Where did I say that we are going to kill them all? We have an excellent train system in Europe. It worked last time (1942-1944) to get rid of those who wanted to impose communism on us. It will work again with those who want to impose the Sharia on us.

But I know that if you Anglos would win again, you would accuse us of having all these poor Muslims gassed in gaschambers, right, like the last time?

But this time the Soros bunch and their Anglo foot soldiers aren’t going to win. For starters because this time you can’t hide behind the broad back of Russia, who gave you the world on a silver platter in 1945. The deeply divided AngloZionists are going to bite the dust. That’s what the Fourth Turning means (in my eyes): another 1776 watershed event and this time it means the break-up of the United States in a white-nationalist and a mixed-race communist part.

This is you Greg, the ultimate Christian, never resist, never fight, always give in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSv4vBcFyvo

Count me out.

[part 2]

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 3:06 am

Where did I say that? Don’t put words in my mouth. Here an old text from 1991, an interview with Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the leader of the Parisian 1968-revolution and until today Washington’s darling. He is kosher, but that’s a coincidence, any other opinion would be anti-semitic and we are all glad we are not like that:

http://www.zeit.de/1991/48/wenn-der-westen-unwiderstehlich-wird/komplettansicht

Kein Zweifel, je intensiver eine Gesellschaft von verschiedenen Nationalitäten, Ethnien, Kulturen, Religionen und Lebensstilen geprägt ist, desto spannender wird sie (und desto größer wird möglicherweise ihr Vermögen, mit ungewohnten Problemen pragmatisch umzugehen). Das heißt aber gerade nicht, daß die multikulturelle Gesellschaft harmonisch wäre. In ihr ist vielmehr – erst recht dann, wenn sich wirklich fremde Kulturkreise begegnen – der Konflikt auf Dauer gestellt. Die multikulturelle Gesellschaft ist hart, schnell, grausam und wenig solidarisch, sie ist von beträchtlichen sozialen Ungleichgewichten geprägt und kennt Wanderungsgewinner ebenso wie Modernisierungsverlierer; sie hat die Tendenz, in eine Vielfalt von Gruppen und Gemeinschaften auseinanderzustreben und ihren Zusammenhalt sowie die Verbindlichkeit ihrer Werte einzubüßen.
(Translation: There is no doubt that the more a society is shaped by different nationalities, ethnic groups, cultures, religions and lifestyles, the more exciting it becomes (and the greater its potential to deal with unfamiliar problems pragmatically). But that does not mean that the multicultural society is harmonious. Rather, it is in this case that – especially when foreign cultural circles are encountered – the conflict is put on hold in the long term. Multicultural society is hard, fast, cruel and poorly sound, characterized by considerable social imbalances, as well as migrant winners as well as modernization losers; It has a tendency to break into a variety of groups and communities and to lose their cohesion and the bindingness of their values.)

Wonderful ain’t it, the multicult values of these AngloZionist invaders and their vassals in Europe.

But that was 1991, shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the AngloZionists thought they had won all historic battles and that “the end of history” had arrived. Snicker. Anglos are notoriously bad in history (and geography and languages, but I digress). For them history is another opportunity for Anglo product placement and self-aggrandizement, supported by the media power of “20th Century Fox”:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qDdYlyLRoI

And then in November 8, 2016, this hairpiece came along, this amateur gynecologist and sabotaged it all.

26 years have passed since 1991 and a lot has changed since. America is half-way becoming a third world country, where China is rising in a meteoric fashion. Russia experienced a rebirth and was able to block the West in Syria. Furthermore the US-lead West is losing the Middle-East. Meanwhile we have the internet around, bypassing the MSM.

Summing it all up, heartland USA has enough of the nightmare “globalist USA” and is opting out from the schemes the Cohn-Bendit’s have in store for them. And once they will break away, the centuries old dream of the Self-Chosen will have evaporated. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch.

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 3:23 am

Cloggie is using psuedo stats to mislead. What percent is the muslim population between LONDON AND BERLIN! That’s the bit that counts.

That’s how I like my Englaender, foaming at the mouth for anger. According to the laws of the Darwinian universe we are living in it means that the animal is cornered.

Possom, nobody cares about Londoninistan, not even the British themselves:

http://www.informationliberation.com/files/london_fallen_khan.png

Perhaps a good time to revive Dad’s Army?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctdVU5BHOlI

After Brexit the role of Britain will be that of a miserable lonely island without allies and a Muslim capital and Scotland defected to Continental Europe.

That’s the essence of the coming “Fourth Turning” in the US: replacement of dominant Anglo-Zionist influence with continental European influence. So far there have been 5 American centuries

1-3: European colony
4: true independence
5: Zionist colony

The 6th century is supposed to be one of “largely independent”, with some monitoring by their elder continental European brothers that a certain minority doesn’t take control again of the Heartland. No taxation though.

Of course he’s also lying cause no matter what, Turkey is part of Europe cause they need the oil and gas routes.
Nice try clogliar

Oh yeah, you are such a genius! How could I overlook that we need Turkey for pipelines from the Middle East. Silly me.

http://tinyurl.com/hztcx92

makati1 on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 4:45 am

Does insanity run in your family, Cloggie, or just senility? Youtube is a good place to find anything you need to support any theory you can come up with. The real challenge is to decide what is fact and what is propaganda/lies.

Europe is going down. Whether it will be first or will closely follow the U$ is the only question. We shall see.

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 4:57 am

One, possibly two, blond haired blue eyed non-diverse homo sapiens amongst the entire crew. The rest certainly appear to have mongolian DNA, and one is no doubt of Middle Eastern decent.

You should doubt yourself a little more and study the name list below the photograph:

https://solarteameindhoven.nl/team-2017/

All 100% Dutch. No Muslims.

These were the first two lines of the national anthem between 1815-1932

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wien_Ne%C3%AArlands_Bloed

Wien Neerlandsch bloed in de aders vloeit,
Van vreemde smetten vrij,
(Those with Dutch blood in the veins,
without foreign stains…)

The difference between Holland and Canada is subtle, but on a second look profound.

Ah well, if you list the internationally 4 most well-known Dutch words:

4. Apartheid
3. Santaclaus
2. Yankee
1. Dollar

…you get the point. White libtard Canada is going to commit national suicide and surrender to races/religions with stronger sense of identity and pride than the Chief Seattle fan club… Asians, Muslims, Europeans (if Canadians are lucky).

For the local Vancouver and Manila society, absolute peak oil and climate change doom is a fig leaf to hide the fact that all three of them are homeless. Not that they lack a roof over their heads, no it is worse: they have no nation to identify with. Atomized individuals in a world of competing tribes, nations, alliances and religions.

No wonder they want to see the world go under in glee.

brough on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 5:10 am

Cloggie, I can do without the anti-British rhetoic.
But, as a nation we have all the symptoms of a country in economic collapse as Gail Tverberg would predict. Here are the symptoms:
1. Oil production peaked in 1998
2. Became net oil importer in 2002
3. Became net natural gas importer in 2004
4. Electricity comsumption is 18% less than in 2005
5. National debt is completely out of control and in real terms is probably about 600% of GDP.
6. Rapidly aging population, so that health services and social care are completely overwhelmed
7. Political leaders in utter denial.

Watch this space, because its coming to a country near you, sooner than you realise

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 5:31 am

Cloggie, I can do without the anti-British rhetoic.

As a Saxon-Dutch, British (and North-Americans) are the easiest folks to deal with in a pleasant and relaxed manner; it is all matter of common heritage (Protestant, capitalist, freedom loving).

It is not for nothing that for the same reason the Germans between 1871 (unification) and 1941 (desperate Rudolf Hess flight, begging for peace, with the Soviets preparing for the assault) wanted nothing more than an alliance with the British.

What I absolutely despise is this British island mentality that brought disaster over Europe twice. Just study the droppings of joe to realize that even in 2017 nothing has changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfl6Lu3xQW0

You would destroy us continental Europeans again if you got the chance (you won’t). So please, do Brexit and prepare yourself to become the next al-Andaluz for the coming 700 years. Allah ak-Bar!

Regarding your 7 points, they may all be true, but none of them implies the inevitable termination of European civilization. Old school economic growth may be over indeed, so what?

Britain had stark stagnating population numbers at the beginning of the British empire.

Germany during Weimar was completely demoralized, but managed to conquer most of Europe, while defending themselves being attacked from all sides (Poland, UK, France, USSR, USA, Norway, Holland, Belgium).

What we in continental Europe need to do is to escape from the US empire 1989-style (thanks Donald Gorbachev!), team up with Moscow and wait for the US to implode and then intervene and pimp yourself as the liberator of European-America, in perfect symmetry as the Americans could pimp themselves as the liberator of Western-Europe… after they made sure that war between Germany and France/Britain broke out in the first place.

I’m eagerly awaiting collapse… as the great initiator of geopolitical change with this as the intended outcome:

https://s17.postimg.org/6wwnomfpb/worldmap.jpg

The implementation of the slightly modified map of Samuel Huntington and his identitarian world order of the 21st century.

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 5:45 am

Europe is going down. Whether it will be first or will closely follow the U$ is the only question. We shall see.

I have always admired the Americans and how they managed to eclipse the Russians, Chinese and Japanese…

Be it in sports:

http://tinyurl.com/jv5j3y9

Be it in science and technology:

http://tinyurl.com/zwwr9gh

Or in winning the space race:

http://tinyurl.com/gru53eo

Well done.

Antius on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 9:05 am

‘What I absolutely despise is this British island mentality that brought disaster over Europe twice. Just study the droppings of joe to realize that even in 2017 nothing has changed.’

Annoying isn’t it. That sense of independent identity. That feeling of not wanting to be pushed around, by Napoleon, by you :0

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 9:43 am

Annoying isn’t it. That sense of independent identity. That feeling of not wanting to be pushed around, by Napoleon, by you :0

Nobody was ever a threat for British independence (if we ignore Tony Blair for a moment and his insane immigration policies).

WW1 was British engineered as a reaction of the meteoric economic rise of Germany that began to eclipse Britain on international markets. The decision to destroy Germany was taken in London in 1891.

https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/britain-masterminded-ww1/

WW2 was engineered by American Jewry, since 1933, using their Churchill pawn as a tool to get the war in Europe started.

https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/ivan-maisky-the-greatest-conspiracy-in-world-history/

Antius on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 10:11 am

Sounds a bit far fetched to me Clog, but I will give your ref’s a read.

At least we agree that Tony Blair and his stooges were scumbags. Reading inside accounts of his government, it becomes clear that neither he nor his ministers had much of a clue what they were doing. We might as well have pulled a few random strangers off the street and make them ministers. That is about as competent as Blair’s government really were.

I do find somewhat contradictory, that someone with clear nationalist sentiments like you, would have a shred of enthusiasm for the Marxist EU. The UK basically quite the EU in a desperate attempt to escape a tidal flood of immigration. There was no hope of changing it from the inside. The best hope is for the EU to collapse and another institution to rise from its ashes.

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 10:12 am

That feeling of not wanting to be pushed around, by Napoleon, by you :0

Last time I checked it was Britain that pushed around Holland, culminating in 1672…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rampjaar

…when the catholic British king Charles II, French catholic king Lou14, and several catholic German bishops tried to wipe Protestant Holland from the map.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j21t1i_SiKI
(probably the most professional pictures of Dutch-British naval warfare to date)

You failed.

But since Britain and France could return any minute, a Dutch expedition needed to be organized with the aim the capture one nation, plunder its resources and keep the other nation in check. That expedition was 1688. Two weeks ago the BBC finally admitted that the Dutch invasion and conquest of Britain and Northern Ireland was exactly that: raw conquest sold as a voluntary act:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2s6E8GWWKU
(The British are essentially good sports, but it sometimes takes 3 centuries to get the truth on the table.)

So let me see… a nation (Holland) of less than 2 million successfully invaded a nation of perhaps 10 million (Britain) and use its resources to keep a nation of 20 million (France) in check. Now that’s embarrassing alright. And then there are still people who wonder why the Dutch have such a big mouth.ROFL.

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 10:47 am

Have been an enthusiastic supporter of the European project most of my life, like most Dutch, but indeed my enthusiasm began to wane after 2000. Europe was built by conservative giant couples: Adenauer-de Gaulle, Schmidt-Giscard, Kohl-Mitterand. Schroeder and Chiraq weren’t that bad either. Merkel and Hollande a total catastrophe.

What I value about the EU is that it gave Europeans a sense of togetherness, even if the EU became a Marxist club that needs to be reformed. I agree with you that the EU needs to be replaced. You see no contours of a new institution, because you are British and as such continental Europe is for you a black hole filled with Huns, Frogs, Bolsheviks, Dago’s, Clogs and similar inconveniences. Me in contrast do see a replacement: Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis/confederation that will take over from America in “civilizational gravitas”. It would be the realization of de Gaulle’s dream of “Europe of the Fatherlands”. Purpose: balance coming super power China and keep them away from Siberia and resolutely keep Islam and the rest of the third world out. Worshiping self-defeating diversity will be a thing of the past as America will give the bad example of what happens to you if you embrace these values. Britain will have very luke-warm feelings about this, as since Britain no longer can rule the waves, it at least wants Anglosphere to be on top and not continental Europe. So that’s a difficult marriage, where as usual Britain rejects Europe more than the other way around.

TheNationalist on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 11:11 am

Cloggie, one of the paintings in my study is the ‘Bombardment of Algiers’ by George Chambers. It shows the Dutch-Anglo fleet liberating the white slaves from the hands of the black muslim Algerian barbery pirates1816.
As an Englishman I have always known our royalty and aristocrocy is related and that is why they send the peasants off to die like a giant chess game. But we have a common enemy in the muslim hordes, cultural marxists and globalist elite now.

GregT on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 11:19 am

“What I value about the EU is that it gave Europeans a sense of togetherness”

That sense of togetherness is already imploding cloggie. That’s the thing about prejudice, hatred, and intolerance. They don’t end along religious or ethnic lines.

A sickness, not unlike a cancer, that will continue to grow, and then metastasize.

Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 1:04 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Algiers_(1816)

The Bombardment of Algiers (27 August 1816) was an attempt by Britain and the Netherlands to end the slavery practices of Omar Agha, the Dey of Algiers. An Anglo-Dutch fleet under the command of Admiral Lord Exmouth bombarded ships and the harbour defences of Algiers.

And en passant we gave the good example to our American friends. Oh the never ending civilizing effect of these Europeans.lol

OFT on Wed, 22nd Feb 2017 5:55 am

Stepping aside from the analysis of the last 500 years of European politics, I think one key point was largely overlooked in this article:

Namely the potential shift from ‘individual car ownership’ to ‘car sharing’ in the next decade, as a combination of autonomous driving and wider choice of electric vehicles develops.

My car, like most others, sits rusting, stationary and unused for 95+% of the week. Why would I want to buy another (personal) vehicle in the future, as – and when – the ability to rent/hire a car for individual journeys becomes widespread?

Davy on Wed, 22nd Feb 2017 6:26 am

Oft, the bigger issue is decline from affluence and the necessary move away from discretionary driving and away from such a large capital expense. We definitely need to be car sharing. Cars are killing the planet and this is a big reason I find greens hypocritical. They talk big about new technology instead of altered attitudes. Many greens (not all) just want to substitute an alternative technology into the picture to maintain the status quo just a green version. It is readily apparent that won’t work. It will help but it won’t solve the problem. Bad attitudes cannot be made good by technology.

Until humans are forced into lower affluence and adapt accordingly our techno changes will not amount to much. The greenest thing one can do is reduce the transport part of the equation of modern life and this is the part they can’t seem to get over. This includes buying cheap export items in consumerism. It includes buying food exports instead of seasonal local produce. It includes our own mobility. Do we need to be flying to remote destinations for pleasure? Do we need to be driving around because we are bored?

Cars are killing us. We can’t leave cars because our entire civilization has been built upon a mass travel and a distribution based civilization. We can only adapt to a decline of this civilization by necessity. It is so unfortunate that it is decline and a collapse process that changes attitudes but that seems to be the only things humans understand. We are now so far behind sustainability and so far into overshoot we have little wiggle room. The sooner we get started the better but in the end it won’t matter because this civilization has no future.

OFT on Wed, 22nd Feb 2017 7:27 am

Davy – I agree. However, people typically wont easily give up luxuries and discretionary spending, so perhaps the gradual uptake of vehicle sharing through automation will introduce a reduction in consumption by stealth.

Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Feb 2017 7:35 am

Exactly right OFT. The self-driving car offers access to mobility in a declining economy and will phase out the “car culture” where people drive out of boredom.

Davy on Wed, 22nd Feb 2017 8:54 am

Oft, I am all for it where it is practical. In large urban areas that are relatively wealthy there is a good chance for it. The majority of the world will never see it in my opinion.

Peak oil demand and why it’s basically impossible to predict

Autonomous impact

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