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Page added on March 6, 2018
Peak oil demand, a theory with many doubters
When Haitham Al-Ghais, the director of market research for the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, was asked about peak oil demand Monday, he smiled broadly and responded quizzically, “what demand?”
Even as some oil companies like Royal Dutch Shell and BP predict oil demand will peak before 2040 – as electric vehicles hit the road and governments worldwide work to cut greenhouse gas emissions – there are plenty within the oil industry who view such predictions with a healthy skepticism.
Helen Currie, the chief economist at Conoco Phillips, said her company had modeled electric car demand and other factors and “struggled with finding a peak,” “anytime within the next 20 to 30 years,” during a panel at the IHS Markit CERAWeek energy conference in Houston Monday.
“We readily acknowledge it’s plausible, but we really tend to see oil demand being fairly strong and robust,” she said.
The concept of peak oil demand has overtaken the oil world since last summer when Shell CEO Ben van Beurden predicted oil demand would peak within a decade. BP joined the chorus last month, though predicting it would take 20 years.
“I don’t think there is any knowledge center in the world that isn’t running a study or workshop on peak demand,” said David Hobbs, head of research at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center in Saudi Arabia.
The difference in how oil companies predict the future largely boils down to whether or not they are bullish on electric vehicles and governments’ commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, said Neil Atkinson, the head of the International Energy Association’s oil industry and markets division.
Atkinson is one of the skeptics, predicting petroleum-powered vehicles will continue to be sold in large numbers well into the future. But he held back from dismissing the other side.
“Everyone has a very plausible explanation of why they hold that view,” he said. “We are verging more into art than science. And demand growth is much harder to predict than supply.”
25 Comments on "Peak oil demand, a theory with many doubters"
dave thompson on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 2:17 pm
“struggled with finding a peak,” “anytime within the next 20 to 30 years,”
Small wonder.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 2:41 pm
Peak oil demand is laughable…
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 2:58 pm
Peak oil demand is laughable…
Not nearly as much as peak oil supply.
Besides, laughing is good for your health.
dave thompson on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 3:33 pm
I am not convinced that peak oil supply is a laughing matter. The coming volatility in our industrial civ set of living arrangements, when peak oil supply hits hard, will not come across like a comedy club two for one night on the town.
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 3:41 pm
I am not convinced that peak oil supply is a laughing matter.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/fracking-is-for-amateurs/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/09/new-energy-europe-renewable-sources-2016
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 3:44 pm
Clogg your sources are laughable here are some peer reviewed scientific studies.
Existing oil reserves are scheduled to begin a catastrophic crash within 1 to 3 years. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently….
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300342X
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254
http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/the_challenges/peak_oil.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 3:46 pm
Clogg
The fact that you deny peak oil is laughable. We have discovered less oil than we have consumed for 34 years in a row. To deny this is to deny facts and math..You simply can’t spend more than you bring in without running short.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 3:49 pm
The fact that you deny peak oil is laughable.
Where do I deny peak conventional oil?!
I’m denying nothing, I just say it is irrelevant.
#ThirdCarbonAge
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 3:53 pm
Clogg
Unconventional can’t make up for all of the worlds conventional on its own. You are such a dumb neck beard troll. lol
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html
onlooker on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 4:02 pm
https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Energy-Return-on-Investment-is-too-Low-to-Maintain-Current-Economic-System.html
Energy Return on Investment is too Low to Maintain Current Economic System
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 4:39 pm
Researchers Unveil Several Ways To Limit Global Warming To 1.5°C By 2100
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/06/researchers-unveil-several-ways-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5c-by-2100/
Statoil Acquires 50% Interest In 1.2 Gigawatt Polish Offshore Wind Farms
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/06/statoil-acquires-50-interest-1-2-gw-polish-offshore-wind-farms/
Toyota To Spend $2.8 Billion On Self-Driving Vehicle Tech Development
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/05/toyota-spend-2-8-billion-self-driving-vehicle-tech-development/
Oklahomans Overwhelmingly In Support Of 2 Gigawatt Wind Catcher Wind Farm
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/05/oklahomans-overwhelmingly-support-2-gw-wind-catcher-wind-farm/
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 4:42 pm
No Huge Energy Storage Breakthrough Needed For Renewable Energy To Flourish
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/04/no-huge-energy-storage-breakthrough-needed-renewable-energy/
Costs Fall In Latest French Onshore Wind Tender
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/05/costs-fall-latest-french-onshore-wind-tender/
How ExxonMobil Could Drown Coal In A Sea Of Renewable Energy
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/05/exxonmobil-drown-coal-sea-renewable-energy/
dave thompson on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 4:45 pm
Clogie, all this new renewable tech you post the links for and we still are burning more FF’s than ever worldwide.
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 4:56 pm
Yep, imagine the lack of problems we have at the energy front!
dave thompson on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 5:01 pm
Oh so burning FF’s is ok?
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 5:43 pm
Look at cloggs sources cleantechia! He cherry picks them because he knows with a site named like that they will tell you the “Good news”…LOL
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 5:44 pm
Inside the new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse (Ahmed, 2017)
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/the-new-economic-science-of-capitalisms-slow-burn-energy-collapse-d07344fab6be
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 9:23 pm
“Oh so burning FF’s is ok?”
No, but at least we have the likes of Shell talking about peak oil demand.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 9:43 pm
Clogg
IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
You are so dumb and foolish! pure white trash! scum fuck Nazi garbage!
Cloggie on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 10:08 pm
“UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)”
For slow lane Americans with one leg in the third world perhaps and overloaded with incompetent marxist trash like millimind, but we in Europe will have the job done before 2050:
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/2012_energy_roadmap_2050_en_0.pdf
America, a good second in everything
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/origin-scientific-accomplishments/
Europe Mozart, US Johnny Cash.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 10:53 pm
Europe is in the toilet pall! And is headed for a deflationary death spiral! Called the end of growth! Richard H tried to warn you suckas!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 6th Mar 2018 11:10 pm
Chevron expects global Natural Gas supply shortage by 2025
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chevron-lng/chevron-expects-lng-supply-shortage-by-2025-idUSKCN1GI2EH
Cloggie on Wed, 7th Mar 2018 12:05 am
Your daily portion of good green news:
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/technik/batterie-funktioniert-auch-bei-minus-70-grad-a-1196750.html
Batteries normally function less good at low temperatures. No more. Chinese scientists developed a new battery that still works at minus 70 centigrade. Downside: lower energy density than conventional lithium-ion batteries.
Cloggie on Wed, 7th Mar 2018 12:08 am
Chevron expects global Natural Gas supply shortage by 2025
From millimind’s link:
“However, a decline in spending in the sector since 2014 will create a supply gap from the mid-2020s unless new investments emerge, Shell said in its 2018 LNG Outlook.”
MASTERMIND on Wed, 7th Mar 2018 12:16 am
Clogg
It doesn’t matter how much they invest because the gas doesn’t exist! LOL Just like the oil fields they aren’t investing enough in finding! The earth’s been thoroughly explored already! Get ready for a Dr Meadows Limits to growth global economic collapse!