The International Energy Agency made headlines Monday when it declared in its World Energy Outlook 2017 that the U.S. could be a net exporter of oil within a decade. The IEA also projected that the U.S. is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades.

Is that a realistic assessment? Is the U.S. on the cusp of achieving energy independence for the first time in nearly 70 years?

A dozen years ago, the notion that the U.S. could achieve energy independence would have drawn scoffs from most energy analysts (including myself). After all, U.S. oil production had been in decline since reaching a peak of 9.6 million barrels per day (BPD) in 1970. By 2005, U.S. oil production had fallen to 5.2 million barrels per day.

But U.S oil demand continued to grow, so crude oil imports soared as production declined. By 2005, net imports of crude oil and finished products like gasoline had reached a record 12.5 million BPD.

U.S. energy security hit an all-time low in 2005, but the situation has changed dramatically since then. Oil and gas drillers had been experimenting with combining hydraulic fracturing with horizontal drilling, and their success ushered in the shale oil and gas boom.

Natural gas production turned upward in 2006 and would rise by 50% over the next decade. Oil production followed in 2009 and added more than 4 million BDP of new production by 2015.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil demand, which had exceeded 20 million BPD from 2003 to 2007, ultimately softened in response to rising oil prices. Demand began to decline in 2008, and within five years had fallen by 2 million BPD.

The combination of surging supplies and slumping demand caused U.S. oil imports to begin falling. The new oil supplies from the U.S. shale plays proved to be a bonanza for U.S. refiners, which processed the oil and began to export some of the finished products.

The U.S. became a net exporter of finished products (e.g., diesel, gasoline, etc.) in 2011 for the first time since 1949. Today, the U.S. still imports about 8 million BPD of oil, but we also export approximately 2 million BPD of crude oil and natural gas liquids, as well as more than 3 million BPD of finished products.

The overall effect is that net U.S. imports of crude oil and finished products fell from a high of 12.5 million BPD in 2005 to less than 5 million BPD in 2015. U.S. energy security is at its highest level since the 1980s, but could the U.S. achieve full energy independence?

It depends on how it is defined. Between 2008 and 2014, net imports fell by 6 million BPD at a fairly steady pace. The U.S. was on a trajectory to achieve zero net imports by 2019, which would have effectively meant energy independence. The U.S. would have still imported oil as it does now, but it was on pace to export enough finished products to net out to zero.

Does that amount to energy independence? Some would argue “no,” since we would still import oil in that situation. By that standard, we will never truly be independent because there will always be economic reasons to import some oil even if, at the same time, we export oil and finished products. For example, some U.S. refineries near Canada may always opt for Canadian crude.

But if the metric is that our petroleum exports are equal to or greater than our imports, then that is achievable. Had oil prices not collapsed in 2014, U.S. shale oil production would probably have continued to grow at a rapid pace for several more years. If the trends before 2014 had continued for five more years, and as long as U.S. demand remained relatively flat, then 2019 could have been the year energy independence was achieved.

But the oil price collapse caused U.S. oil production to dip, and net imports trended slightly higher in 2016. U.S. oil production is once again on the rise, but demand is also climbing higher.

Still, the remarkable decline in net imports as the shale oil boom began to pay dividends shows that the notion of energy independence isn’t as far-fetched as it seemed a decade ago. If oil prices gain strength, that should both boost production and make alternatives like electric vehicles more attractive, which would help push the U.S. closer to energy independence.

My verdict on the IEA’s projection? It is certainly possible but will likely require oil prices to rise from current levels.

Robert Rapier, Forbes

140 Comments on "Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?"

makati1 on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 5:41 pm 



Onlooker, denial is not going to make the decline any easier for you or prevent China’s rise. You don’t have to read any post you disagree with, like mine, but if you close your mind to reality, you only open it to unnecessarily suffering. Can you get the truth if you only look at an accident from one point? One person’s eyes? Or does the picture clear if you can see it from many points and eyes?

onlooker on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 5:51 pm 



Yes, Makati that is true have as wide a view as possible with always an open mind. You have provided valuable links over time. However, in just one area I do have a disagreement in that you dwell too much on the US, without taking a larger view at the entire planet. You know very well that this is a global collapse that is coming. Not too much does it matter if the US collapses first because everyone else will shortly follow. So, I must concede to Davy’s assessment of economic interconnection. But it goes way beyond as us who are not techo-cornies know. It ultimately is our huge global population and the staggering ways we are undermining this planets ability to sustain life. See again the link by AP about our already beginning the global collapse https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the-collapse-of-global-civilization-has-begun-b527c649754c

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 6:13 pm 



Mad Kat, it is hell when even your friends see it and you continue to live in denial.

makati1 on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 7:21 pm 



ah, onlooker, but the US is the CAUSE of most of the planet’s ills. From promoting death and destruction (CIA/MIC) in the form of wars to Monsanto’s death chemical, to greedy Caoitalism, it is a rabid beast that must be taken down, and I am not shy about claiming that, as you know. The sooner the better for the rest of the world.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 7:26 pm 



Planning for a recession?

“Fed Hints During Next Recession It Will Roll Out Income Targeting, NIRP”
http://tinyurl.com/ycpz9utc

“On Thursday afternoon, in a stark warning of what’s to come, San Francisco Fed President John Williams confirmed our suspicions when he said that to fight the next recession, global central bankers will be forced to come up with a whole new toolkit of “solutions”, as simply cutting interest rates won’t well, cut it anymore, and in addition to more QE and forward guidance – both of which were used widely in the last recession – the Fed may have to use negative interest rates, as well as untried tools including so-called price-level targeting or nominal-income targeting.”

“Williams said that “negative interest rates need to be on the list” of potential tools the Fed could use in a severe recession.”

“Meanwhile, the idea of Fed targeting, or funding, “income” is hardly new: back in July, Deutsche Bank was the first institution to admit that the Fed has created “universal basic income for the rich”: The accommodation and QE have acted as a free insurance policy for the owners of risk, which, given the demographics of stock market participation, in effect has functioned as universal basic income for the rich. It is not difficult to see how disruptive unwind of stimulus could become. Clearly, in this context risk has become a binding constraint.”

“What will governments and central banks do in the scenario of a great liquidity crisis? If the standard rate cutting and bond purchases don’t suffice, central banks may more explicitly target asset prices (e.g., equities). This may be controversial in light of the potential impact of central bank actions in driving inequality between asset owners and labor. Other ‘out of the box’ solutions could include a negative income tax (one can call this ‘QE for labor’), progressive corporate tax, universal income and others”

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 7:32 pm 



“Venezuela, PDVSA CDS Triggered: ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred”
http://tinyurl.com/ycmv6nfq

“Specifically, in today’s determination, in response to the question whether a “Failure to Pay Credit Event occurred with respect to Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.?” ISDA said that the Determinations Committee voted 15 to 0 that a failure to pay credit event had occurred with respect to PDVSA.”

“The panel will now meet next week to discuss whether to hold an auction to set the rate at which the CDS will pay out. When credit swaps are triggered, buyers of the contracts have their losses covered by the counterparties that sold them the insurance-like derivatives. As recently as last month, traders had bought a net $250 million of default protection through the swaps market, according to the ISDA. Of course, with the PDVSA CDS already trading at a price which implied 100% certainty of default, none of this will be a surprise.”

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 1:12 am 



“Fed Hints During Next Recession It Will Roll Out Income Targeting, NIRP”

Next recession? Hows about recovering from the one that the world has been in since 2008, before ‘hinting’ about the next one.

More disinformation from Zerohedge.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 1:45 am 



“Next recession? Hows about recovering from the one that the world has been in since 2008, before ‘hinting’ about the next one.”

Depends on who you are and how close to the bubbles you were. No one on this board knows that better than you, widdle g. You pocketed a cool $MILLION$ from Chinese money laundering environment of the GREAT Vancouver housing bubble. I don’t think I would call Hongcouver these days a recession.

BTW, I will be posting more ZH because it sure does upset you and nothing please me more than shagging a west coast ugly Canadian anti-American asswipe.

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:02 am 



“BTW, I will be posting more ZH because it sure does upset you and nothing please me more than shagging a west coast ugly Canadian anti-American asswipe.”

Sticks and stones, delusionalist. A lesson that you obviously missed out on a couple of years back. By all means, keep posting the Tyler Durden ZH articles. At this point it really makes no difference, you’ve already lost all credibility.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:02 am 



“Tesla unveils first electric truck”
http://tinyurl.com/ybfg256g

“The long-anticipated Tesla Semi has a range of 500 miles on a single charge. Tesla says the vehicle – known in the US as a semi-trailer truck – will go into production in 2019.”

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:07 am 



“At this point it really makes no difference, you’ve already lost all credibility.”
LOL, who cares what you think widdle. When is the last time you actually said something. All you do is the ugly Canadian anti-American stalking and pricking. Not a whole lot of that going on anymore. You are one of the “last of the Mohicans” widdle. Why not be someone with a message. I know you flank the extremist anti-Americans but that reflects poorly on you. It shows you are devoid of knowledge. You say next to nothing and only whine and gnash your teeth crying out for undeserved respect and attention. Pathetic

makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:11 am 



EVERY financial site says that the US recession is over. The cover-up is complete. Find an article that says different. I have not read one in the last few years that claimed anything different. There are a few that claim we are already in the next one, but … they are also few.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-already-here-and-there-isnt-much-the-fed-can-do-commentary.html

I agree that the US has NOT recovered. I maintain that it is in a Depression, which is getting worse every day, not a recession, if the real numbers be known. Not the bullshit published for the serfs.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:13 am 



All you do is the ugly Canadian anti-American stalking and pricking. Not a whole lot of that going on anymore. You are one of the “last of the Mohicans” widdle.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/01/u-s-power-and-influence-increasingly-seen-as-threat-in-other-countries/

Concerns about American power and influence have risen in countries around the world amid steep drops in U.S. favorability and confidence in the U.S. president.

Across 30 nations surveyed by Pew Research Center both in 2013 and this spring, a median of 38% now say U.S. power and influence poses a major threat to their country, up 13 percentage points from 2013.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:18 am 



“EVERY financial site”
I don’t think so md kat. Do you have references and links?

“I agree that the US has NOT recovered. I maintain that it is in a Depression, which is getting worse every day, not a recession, if the real numbers be known. Not the bullshit published for the serfs.”
Of course you do mad kat. You are peddling an anti-American agenda that has the flip side of an Asiaphile sentiment. Of course everything is bad in the US and nothing wrong with where you live. What a crock of shit.

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:22 am 



” All you do is the ugly Canadian anti-American stalking and pricking.”

I’m not anti-American delusionalist, and I do not believe in centralized control. I am well aware, that is well beyond your limited ability to comprehend. You have repeatedly made yourself crystal clear on that point.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:23 am 



What is your point dutchy? We are talking about this board not the world opinion which IMA is grossly manipulated depending on who is peddling what. I do not deny anti-American sentiment is strong but who cares, the world just loves to point fingers and play the blame and complain game. When it comes down to it most people are just making a living. Those with money go where the money is. Then there is dutchy in his little Dutch village preaching a new Empire complete with q 100% renewable Eurotardland. Dutchy, you are the worse one on this board for your American whining and Eurotard gloating.

makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:24 am 



Cloggie, most Americans have no clue how much the US militarism of the last 17+ years has turned the world away from the US. But they are beginning to find out as more and more turn to Russia and China for allies and trade.

The term “Ugly American” has taken on a much nastier and more deadly, definition.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:25 am 



“I’m not anti-American”
Sure you are widdle g, you are either dumb or just a liar. I would say both.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:30 am 



“But they are beginning to find out as more and more turn to Russia and China for allies and trade.”
Mad kat, just curious do you have links and references for the dollar amounts? We know China is very large so a certain amount of that is just the status quo. I would like to see the dollar amount of “more and more turn”. Can you put a figure on a “more and more turn”? I think it is very small in relation to total global trade that is already there and globally integrated. IOW, China is a big ass economy so if you are peddling an anti-American agenda with a Sinophile twist you are going to find plenty of sources to draw on to peddle your agenda.

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:41 am 



Are you by any chance one of those hired to spread propaganda and disinformation by the U.S. Govt delusionalist? I’m having a very difficult time taking your sheer ignorance and stupidity at face value.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:45 am 



I do not deny anti-American sentiment is strong but who cares, the world just loves to point fingers and play the blame and complain game.

Davy boy demands “respect” for the US government, irrespective of its actions. That’s not how the world works, Empire Johnny.

The actions of the US deep state around the world can not be covered up any longer, now that the internet is taking over from the MSM. This has nothing to do with blaming and complaining.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:55 am 



“Tesla unveils first electric truck”
http://tinyurl.com/ybfg256g
“The long-anticipated Tesla Semi has a range of 500 miles on a single charge. Tesla says the vehicle – known in the US as a semi-trailer truck – will go into production in 2019.”

I’m glad Davy that after 6 years (with interruptions) I got you so far to adopt a more positive stance towards renewable energy.

You know that you are a bit of a follower character, Davy?

Insane acceleration of Tesla Roadster e-vehicle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpg0Fv_wgLA

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:56 am 



“Are you by any chance one of those hired to spread propaganda and disinformation by the U.S. Govt delusionalist? I’m having a very difficult time taking your sheer ignorance and stupidity at face value.”
LOL, you are really desperate. How about this widdle use your imagination. You 3 musketeer extremists are good at that.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 2:59 am 



“Davy boy demands “respect” for the US government, irrespective of its actions. That’s not how the world works, Empire Johnny.”
Nope, dumb und dutchy, the truth deserves respect from extremist peddling agenda.

“The actions of the US deep state around the world can not be covered up any longer, now that the internet is taking over from the MSM. This has nothing to do with blaming and complaining.”
The internet is also great to neuter and moderate extremist lies. It works both ways dumb und dutchy

BTW, dutchy, I thought you had a demanding client and had to actually work for a living?

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 3:03 am 



“I’m glad Davy that after 6 years (with interruptions) I got you so far to adopt a more positive stance towards renewable energy.”
No arguments there dutchy. I am still preaching doom just delayed. I am not a delusional fake green either and think this is going to save us and the climate. I am a fake green trying to be greener which is very hard in a status quo world. Renewables are just an extender and will buy us some time. This is little more than a new drug for a terminal illness. Thanks for you info in renewables, dutchy. I am smarter on something that matters to me. BTW, I just installed some panels and batteries.

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 3:08 am 



I’m not buying it delusionalist. I refuse to believe that propaganda and indoctrination alone, could be solely responsible for your unwavering support of Empire. I get that you have serious emotional and psychological issues as well, but even all of the above can not possibly even begin to explain how totally messed up that you are.

Something simply does not add up here.

Cloggie on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 3:09 am 



“BTW, dutchy, I thought you had a demanding client and had to actually work for a living?”

Davy wants to get rid of his tormenter.lol

I will be starting on monday. Today I go to Amsterdam, so you can lean back already and recover from your neutering operations.lol

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 3:38 am 



Geeze, you are a wrapped up in your widdle world widdle g. You have been talking the same stalk and prick now for years. I think that is why I like shagging you so much you are such a dork that thinks he deserves respect. Every day I make you look like a fool and it is great and what is fun is you just keep coming back for more. You act like anything you says matters. What you said above you have been saying for 4 years. The same redundant puke widdle g. Get a life or grow up or better yet see that therapist. Get off the internet. LOL. If you are going to stay here say something people want to read. You would think you would realize you are whining and gnashing your teeth. What a dumbass. You really reflect badly on the other Canadians here.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 3:40 am 



“Davy wants to get rid of his tormenter.lol”
Nope dutchy, it is just you have been boasting about your new job now for months and how you will not have time here on the board. Just checking on the goods. You are mostly talk so I have to make sure you present the goods.

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 4:06 pm 



“You are mostly talk so I have to make sure you present the goods.”

You are not making anybody do anything. You are not in control over what anyone else says or thinks.

Pure delusions on your part. Once again. Get help.

Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 6:26 pm 



I am in control of you, widdle. I neuter and moderate your extremism on a continuous basis. I turn your stalking and pricking back on yourself. BTW, when are you going to show some content. Of all the regulars you are as shallow as they come. Boat blows you out of the water on content. You are really sad these days widdle.

Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:08 pm 



We have some wild ass Canadians on this site but generally N America is one of the best most productive continents on the planet. Pretty much energy independent, food independent, lower populations in comparison. Even Mexico is starting to go renewable. Life is good, We set the example the world aspires to. He’ll even the poor look well fed and use tolities.

makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:14 pm 



Hahahaha. Good one Boat! ” N America is one of the best most productive continents on the planet.”

Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:21 pm 



mak, I saw Manila on Google. What a Frgging mess. Do you have running water yet?

makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:06 pm 



Boat does insanity run in your family? You saw shit and called it Manila.

You might want to look at the picture here to see the real Manila. Note, the white buildings along the bay in the lower left hand corner is the US Embassy/Fort.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=279202&page=266

Makati, is another part of the Metro Manila. Manila is the area to the far left background along the bay. And, yes, the tower I live in is visible in the picture.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:10-25-2005_JVBA_Makati_Skyline.jpg

Overall map of Metro Manila. At any given time, there are over 100 towers going up in the city. The Ps is growing, not contracting like the US.

http://www.bfhomes.net/metro_manila_map.htm

This is where I live. A real growing, prospering city.

Makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:51 pm 



BTW: If you want to see the US Embassy or any of Metro Manila, you can go to Google Earth and drop the little man down on any street and look at anything you want.

https://www.google.com/earth/

You could even go to the road the farm is on and look my neighbors. Not that I am going to tell you where that is. lol

GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 11:54 pm 



“I am in control of you, widdle.”

Not the least bit surprising to hear you say that.

You are one seriously messed up individual delusionalist.

Get help.

GregT on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 12:25 am 



“He’ll even the poor look well fed and use tolities.”

Do you not understand the concept of self respect Kevin?

MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 12:31 am 



7.5 Billion People Are Sleepwalking Into a Great Malthusian Nightmare (Trap)
https://imgur.com/a/NPqEc

This world will burn!

fmr-paultard on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 12:15 pm 



aswang why dont you start virtual farming and studying electricity? i dont want suicide shower!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuQ_AAkkgIg

you have zero supertards we have plenty. you try to recruit your cambridge five. you eurotards and sentapbs