Peak Oil is You
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Page added on August 16, 2014
Forget Peak Oil, We’re At Peak Everything
The idea that we’re running out of oil may have faded slightly from the list of concerns, but that’s just one of any number of precious natural resources we’re using up far too quickly.
Peak oil is the concept that new discoveries of commercially exploitable oil resources do not keep pace with growing demand. By extrapolating the data, you can estimate when we will run out of it for all practical purposes. There are a lot of disagreements about whether we have reached peak oil or when the downhill slope will hit a point that brings a significant percentage of our vehicles to a grinding halt, but the concept has made scientists and policy makers ask the question: What other critical resources may be peaking?
Asia Pulp & Paper Company, one of the world’s largest, announced last month that it will no longer use wood from natural forests for any of its $4 billion per year worth of products. Why? Because APP’s customers realized we are running out of natural forests from which to harvest lumber and have demanded suppliers to develop sustainable sources. The Walt Disney Company, Mattel, and Harper Collins are among many corporations setting sustainability standards for things like paper and packaging.
Water is another resource that may not be as mobile as wood or oil, but which has certainly reached its peak in many places. Last year, a report from the U.S. Office of National Intelligence predicted increasing global conflicts by 2030 as demand for water surpasses sustainable supplies by 40%. Nearly a billion people lack safe, sustainable water supplies already and, according to the UN and the OECD, almost half of the world’s population will live in areas of serious “water stress” by 2030.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed these findings on “peak water” saying, “These threats are real and they do raise serious national security concerns.” And just where might peak water create such threats first? A 2011 report from the U.S. Senate’s Committee on Foreign Relations may have an answer in its title: “Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia’s Growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Considering the price in human lives and taxpayer dollars for “peace” in that region already, we might want to help Afghans make water more plentiful even as our military tries to make things like guns and ammunition more scarce.
Another essential commodity that may soon hit its peak is food. Last year, more than half of the world’s seafood was farmed instead of wild caught, because we have long passed “peak fish” in the ocean. This was the last global food product where humans were mostly hunter-gatherers and we have now industrialized its production, however our fish farming methods are crude compared to the ways we grow row crops, grains, and other forms of protein, meaning that shortages and higher prices for many seafood items are already resulting from certain species peaking. In another example, the conversion of corn to ethanol has been well documented for several years as a contributor to shortages and price spikes for that staple in many parts of the globe.
These peak trends have motivated retailers like Walmart, Tesco, and Target to set standards for suppliers around sustainable sourcing, because executives I have spoken with are concerned their shelves will one day be empty or prices will exceed their customers’ budgets, which in turn impacts corporate bottom lines. Make no mistake, peak anything is a warning signal that smart consumers will increasingly use to make more sustainable choices and to plan for a resource-constrained future. And that should peak the interest of any business person or politician.
34 Comments on "Forget Peak Oil, We’re At Peak Everything"
ghung on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 9:21 am
“Another essential commodity that may soon hit its peak is food. Last year, more than half of the world’s seafood was farmed instead of wild caught, because we have long passed “peak fish” in the ocean.
And how were those farmed fish fed?
Nony on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 10:04 am
ND Bakken just crossed 1 million bpd. How’s Rune’s Red Queen article looking now?
Plantagenet on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 10:21 am
“Limits to Growth” affects economic growth first—then human population growth later.
Bob Owens on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 10:54 am
As we approach limits our capitalist system will start responding. I doubt it will be enough or fast enough to make a real difference, but there will be responses. It is clear that Humans as a society are not going to respond, so it is left to the capitalist system. It just might be enough to take the sharp edge off our problems. We will see.
Jerry McManus on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 12:15 pm
Resources in, and wastes out. That’s how anything gets done, anywhere in the universe. Any system that ignores limits on either one of those things is going to have big problems eventually.
Throw in an accumulation of non-renewable resources which in turn enables autocatalytic growth (i.e. burning more fossil fuels builds more machines that burn more fossil fuels), and you have a classic recipe for overshoot and collapse.
Such a simple concept, but just try and communicate it, no matter how gently, and see how fast you get shouted down as a so-called “doomer”.
Davy on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 12:41 pm
Damn Jerry, I love words like autocatalytic. They cause my brain to salivate.
herrmeier on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 2:28 pm
Unfortunately we haven’t reached peak in many things. Peaks are coming, but still a couple of decades away.
I’m so waiting for peak population.
jim anglin on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 2:59 pm
With you there Jerry.
We’ve been refining that ‘classic recipe’ for some time now.
Stephen on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 3:08 pm
I think when we realize this, we will have to make some serious decisions and this probably will have to put survival and quality of life above economic growth, profits, or returns for investors and accept that down is the way forward even if it means all of the debts don’t get paid in full or the richest aren’t going to get richer.
Pops on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 6:14 pm
“ND Bakken just crossed 1 million bpd. How’s Rune’s Red Queen article looking now?”
Pretty frazzled.
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Bakken_growth_decline_trends_2013_2016.jpg
Richard Ralph Roehl on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 6:21 pm
We approach a terrifying scenario of ‘peak everything’… because of the EXPONENTIAL growth of the baboony consumer population on Planet Over-birth Earth, a host organism of FINITE space and FINITE resources.
Humanity faces a clamitious EXTINCTION event, probably within this century.
Alas! Where there is no insight, the people perish.
Norm on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 6:41 pm
Hey Ghung, i once read an article about feeding the farmed fish. The fastest protein creation is the growth of the house fly. So they were figuring out how to manufacture flies, in buildings with rotten plants etc. They would feed the flies to the farmed fish.
So when you eat a farmed salmon, maybe you are just eating a bunch of fly meat. That’s why I only eat wild salmon. However, the sheeple who eat at Applebee’s are not intelligent enough to question what they are eating.
Best way to starve out all the over-bred white trash, is to vote Republican. The Republicans will take away all the jobs. The trick is, unless you are filthy rich, they will take away your job too. Thus even people who make 6 figure incomes are forced to vote democrat alongside of the welfare trailer trash meth heads.
Republicans only want multi-million dollar households to survive and they will send everybody else to the tub-grinder. Too bad or a whole lot more of us would be voting republican to starve out the over-breeding welfare class.
Makati1 on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 8:50 pm
“sustainable sourcing” is like “renewable energy”. Neither exists in the real world, only in the minds of the deniers.
We have passed peak everything. We are under the barrel looking for drops and crumbs. Jamming our hands under Mother Nature’s couch cushions looking for loose change to buy our next fix of oil.
The paragraph siting government as a source is a joke. Hillary is a presidential wannabee, that never should be, and the Committee on Foreign Relations is an even bigger joke. It should be renamed the Committee to Waste Resources. The US’ foreign relations is nothing but a war committee. US diplomacy died in the 20th century. Killed by the MIC.
Some believe we have a few more decades of BAU. That is so far out, that, if it comes true, it would be the first miracle since that virgin birth we keep hearing about.
bobinget on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 9:12 pm
Forty years (or longer) ago ‘fish farmers’ in the tropics would hang lights fitted with reflectors over ponds attracting winged insects. Fish would wait all night for
slightly singed flyers to drop….. When we humans need to adapt, we will.
Norm, words like ‘trailer, or white trash’ are pejorative.
This insinuates poor whites are still superior to blacks as long as they live in a proper building, keep a neat lawn and fewer then three broken vehicles blocking
your parking.
Leave humor to pros.
Nony on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 9:34 pm
I’m wondering if New Mexico might hit a new peak. Kopits already had to change his slides after Colorado repeaked (he had this talk where he goes into how few states had repeaked). Now we might have New Mexico.
Of course when Texas repeaks, the biggest one of all, it’s going to make the whole listing the states thing seem kind of beside the point.
dashster on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 1:09 am
It is curious that only a minority of people think we are running up against limits. The mainstream still believes that talking of limits is “Malthusian” and wrong.
The United States elite are so convinced that there are no limits being approached that they are expecting to increase their population by 100 million in the next 50 years.
Dredd on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 5:34 am
The Peak of Sanity is the forerunner that caused Peak Everything … peak resources.
That is because it takes a lack of sanity to deplete resources to the point of generating a crisis.
Nony on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 7:15 am
In the 70s, there were a lot of doomer predictions that did not work out. The cornies were a lot more right than the doomers, especially regarding the advances of technology (not just energy tech). Doesn’t mean that doomers might not be right eventually. But I’m not impressed with the level of thought from doomers. They seem to emote more than analyze. And they don’t acknowledge past failed predictions. So how can you trust them.
Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 7:55 am
NOO, is emoting better or worse than fantasy anal-ization (analyzing). You cornies have a fatal flaw of analyzing using existing trends and projecting them into the world in a linear fashion. You are “flat earthers” in this respect. Doomers recognize chaos, bifurcation, and non-linear phenomenon. The cornies have a belief in technology, knowledge, and markets. Their belief is a conditioned belief from short term trends of a hyper economic, resource driven, population growth world. IMA a world only in existence for an ass pimple 200 years or less. This world has been characterized by growth through energy intensity and substitution. NOO, your growth and substitution is in a finite world am I correct. Last I understood was that physics says the world is finite and governed by physical laws. Chemist say we only have so many elements in the periodic table. Geologies tell us there are resource limits. All cornies have is past experiences for their optimism and confidence. All past experiences tell us is what happened and we know that is debatable based upon the various interpretations of a multi polar world view. Science has shown historically system change and change abruptly. Systems enter a new equilibrium that is often unrecognizable from the previous equilibrium. Most often “soft” organic system break when limits of growth and diminishing returns have been reached and stability is fractured. NOO, there is multiple indications of limits of growth and diminishing returns wrapped up in a “Mega Predicament” of multiple converging inclusive predicaments in all areas. So if we doomers are emotive that is because we are concerned about a system that is clearly in disequilibrium from past normal. We are also emotive because we see blind optimism and truth distortions from the cornies claiming stabile normality will continue. IMA a world where cornies rule. Cornies number one failure is not recognizing limits.
Nony on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:49 am
Dude, paragraphs. If you can’ structure your thoughts, just arbitrarily hit a double carriage return after every fifth sentence. Walls of text are eye cruelty. Won’t read them.
Kenz300 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:52 am
Too many people and too few resources………..
Every year the world adds 80 million more people to feed, clothe, house and provide energy for. That endless population growth is not sustainable.
Around the world we can find food shortages, water shortages, declining fish stocks, a Climate Change crisis, an unemployment crisis and an OVER POPULATION crisis.
Every problem is made harder to solve with the worlds ever growing population.
Overpopulation facts – the problem no one will discuss: Alexandra Paul at TEDxTopanga – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNxctzyNxC0
————————–
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
Makati1 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:02 pm
It is possible we reached peak intelligence at the beginning of the Iron Age and have been regressing ever since. ^_^
Kenz300 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:21 pm
If only we were at PEAK POPULATION numbers.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:28 pm
Mak, I think anthropologists now believe humans have been deteriorating genetically since we developed agriculture at least. And that this trend has only reverted recently. There is no positive functioning natural selection in humans today. A lot of defective people get cured and treated and make it to reproductive age. I, personally believe the human gene pool’s quality is deteriorating at this time. Every generation seems to be more stupid and ignorant than the one before in spite of all their college educations. I’ve always considered my grandparents generation as better in almost every way to mine, and when I look at today’s kids I’m horrified. I’m 45 now.
Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:03 pm
Juan, I “dunno” on the genetics thing. I believe it more conditioning in the past couple of generations. I do believe you have a point with genetic deterioration since the advent of agriculture. I believe we have degenerated spiritually as well. I see the social/spiritual/political soft structures of many of the Native American tribes and I see real humanity seen through family/tribe, tradition, and common purpose. They were sustainable, resilient, and connected to nature which is significant when you look at what we are today. Today we humans are very far from our human equilibrium. We are a shell of our ancestors. We are a reflection of the world we created. Can you honestly tell me anything that is a higher element of beauty in our humanity? Is see nothing about Humans today as a whole that is higher. We are preforming the lower work of demolition of higher level ecosystems and species and replacing them with monocultures and jelly fish. I just can’t see how a monoculture and jellyfish can compare to an old growth temperate rainforest, or the Great Plains ecosystem as an American ecosystem examples. We are an extinction species and as far as nature is concerned this is fine. Nature operates through evolution and extinction is part of that. Yet, as a human and being reflective on beauty, I see no beauty in anything modern humans have achieved. My meaning is you cannot even begin to compare the beauty found in nature especially nature pre modern man to anything humans have created. If you look at our urbanization and vast agricultural creations we see entropic waste and decay at its highest levels. Think of the ability of those ecosystems to convert solar energy to creative forces then look at what humans do and have done. I am ashamed to be human in some ways other than I did not have any say in the matter.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:22 pm
Davy, Of course genes can only change a tiny little bit in a couple of generations even under today’s wacked circumstances and the recent deterioration has been environmental, cultural, and social as you described. I got carried away I guess, the genetic deterioration is real, though, even if not perceivable in a human lifetime scale.
I believe we’ve been distancing ourselves from nature since we started to evolve as a civilized species. Our social structures, tools, weapons, shelters, our use of fire, our hunting megafauna to extinction, or very near, as with the Buffalo 150 years ago, all of it sets as against nature.
Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:33 pm
Well, Juan, you may have a point considering all the various poison and mutants we have exposed ourselves to in a short and intense period. In that respect maybe a few short generations all it takes to ruin a gene pool. Maybe I was carried away and you are very correct.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:47 pm
There are more people living in the world today than all the people that lived at all times before 1900. If we’re mutating at the same rate as before, this means we should, as a species, experience more mutations in this century than we’ve experienced since we exist. This is a direct consequence of the relations in doubling periods of exponential population growth.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:51 pm
Davy, Have you seen Albert Bartlett’s speech
http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html
If you haven’t, save it for later. It’s worth the time.
dubya on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 12:02 am
JuanP & Davy
Evidence is that the primary selective pressure in humans since we started living in large groups is infectious diseases. Intelligence has very little influence when 1/3 of the population disappears from the black death.
antiwarforever on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 9:03 am
The negationists will answer that as long as “human genius” hasn’t peaked, Peak Everything is not a concern. Talk of self-delusion and boundless Hubris…
JuanP on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 9:46 am
Dubya, That was true before the advent of modern medicine, but no longer applies. In today’s world there are direct, indisputable statistical relations between the education, intelligence, and socioeconomic status of a person and the number of children they have, particularly for women.
MrColdWaterOfRealityMan on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 10:51 am
Nony,
To summarize the criticism you’ve been receiving.
1) Get facts (Google is your friend. So is the EIA website).
2) Evaluate them in a time context (i.e. Tomorrow isn’t like today and natural phenomenon are often nonlinear).
3) Learn math (e.g. the world uses 33 billion barrels of oil a year.)
4) Graduate. Get a real job. Have some kids and start thinking seriously about the future.
Cheers!
Davy on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 11:26 am
MR, Further recommendations:
NOO, Take down the poster of Steve Forbes for President you have in your closet.