This is the second of three columns dedicated to making the case that Alaska, like the rest of the world, can move beyond oil and into the clean energy economy.
Alaska’s economy was small yet stable pre-pipeline. As noted in my previous column, if we get the funding reliance switched from oil revenues to the earnings of the Permanent Fund, then we can start thinking beyond oil. Building on the fundamental premise that the fiscal gap is solvable (once political will kicks in), let’s look at how far we’ve come since the pipeline boom days and ask if this is enough to build on.
In the interest of full disclosure, my first job in Alaska (1977) was driving a taxi in Anchorage. Although I avoided the strip clubs in Spenard and never took a call from Chilkoot Charlie’s, I got a front-row seat to a state flush with pipeline money. Anchorage then had all the trappings of a city but few of the benefits. Restaurant choices were limited and always crowded, the roads were full of potholes, and nondescript apartment buildings and strip malls seemed to be on steroids. Now, in 2018, Anchorage is being evaluated by U.S. News and World Report as one of the 100 best cities to live in. Here is how the magazine describes Anchorage: “A young, thriving, culturally rich city (that) houses galleries and fine-dining restaurants in its urban nucleus, but is just minutes away from some of the last true, unspoiled wilderness in the U.S.”
As much as Anchorage has changed since 1977, so too has the Alaska seafood industry. At the time of the pipeline boom days there were no quota programs for halibut, pollock or crab. Once Alaska fisheries switched from a race-for-fish structure to a quota program that allowed for months of fishing instead of days, stability and new opportunities abounded. Just look at the price of halibut now. Alaska produces half of the nation’s seafood, and all major fisheries are certified as sustainable by the Marine Stewardship Council, an international eco-label program I once worked for as regional fisheries manager. Through the Community Development Quota program and regional marketing efforts, the benefits of the seafood industry reach throughout Alaska. Also, since the time of peak Prudhoe Bay production, the salmon industry weathered the market disruption of farmed salmon and has come through stronger, with improved quality and many more value-added products. I agree with Sen. Dan Sullivan, who describes Alaska as the “superpower of sustainable seafood.”
The next economic sector that has blossomed in this same time period is tourism. According to a 1997 report, “Alaska Economy and Population, 1959-2020” by the Institute of Social and Economic Research, “Tourism has been one of the fastest growing basic industries, increasing at estimated 5 to 7 percent annually.” Essentially, tourism has transformed the economy of towns from Ketchikan to Seward to Fairbanks and all the way to Nome. At the time of the pipeline, tourism was a nascent industry. Last year, more than 2 million visitors came to Alaska.
At the time of this growth in tourism, the forest products industry was undergoing a major decline with the close of two pulp mills in Southeast. Today the forest products industry is less than a tenth of what it was in its heyday. However, there is a new industry building around second-growth wood and biomass. In about 10 years the inventory of second-growth forest will peak, and with retooling of sawmills, these forests could be sustainably harvested into the future.
With the opening of the Red Dog Mine, the Greens Creek Mine, the Donlin Mine and the Kensington Mine, mining continues to be a significant contributor to Alaska’s economy. According to the website of the Alaska Miners Association, “Mining is a growing force in Alaska’s economy, providing jobs for thousands of Alaskans and millions of dollars of personal income throughout Alaska.”
The other core industry that’s been around since the pipeline days is construction. According to a 2016 report by ISER, “The construction trade is Alaska’s third largest industry, paying the second highest wages, employing nearly 18,000 workers with a payroll over $1 billion. It accounts for 20 percent of and contributes $7 billion to Alaska’s economy.” While construction spending related to oil and gas and the state’s capital budget is expected to decline, the construction trade is expected to remain vibrant, especially if deferred maintenance and infrastructure projects become government priorities.
Now let’s look at the industries we have now that we didn’t have at the time of the pipeline. At the top of this list are health care and air cargo. According to the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, “Alaska’s health care industry has grown steadily during the past 20 years, and that trend is expected to continue as Alaska senior population increases.” In 2010, the industry provided 31,800 jobs and had a payroll of $1.53 billion.
While flying into Anchorage for health care or other needs, it’s easy to notice the expansive air cargo facilities, but did you know that the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport ranks fourth in the world for cargo? As noted by Bill Popp, president of the Anchorage Economic Development Corp., “The airport is a big source of job growth and it helps stabilize other parts of the economy.” With the expansion in online commerce, it’s likely that air cargo will remain an economic force in Alaska.
Add to this list a state-of-the-art telecommunications network that serves the entire state, the maturation of village and regional Native corporations, the growth of the university system and an expanding arts and entertainment industry, and you see that Alaska has significantly diversified since Big Oil first came into our lives.
I am not alone in this assessment. ISER economist Mouhcine Guettabi, in October 2017, spoke about “Alaska’s Economy: Then and Now,” concluding that Alaska is no longer characterized by the boom-and-bust cycle. Instead, “Alaska’s economy is (now) characterized by relatively slow and steady growth in population and employment driven by growth across many sectors such as the federal government, mining, tourism, air cargo, health care, and retail trade, and with significant regional variation. Alaska has considerably changed along almost all dimensions.”
To someone who started as a taxi driver, invested in Silver Lining Seafoods, organized Salmon Forums, served on the Tongass Advisory Committee, owned a bed-and-breakfast and worked for Native organizations, I’ve seen the breadth of change Guettabi speaks about. As an elected official and engaged resource professional, I’ve stayed close to economic developments. The Alaska I know and love has more than one economic driver. Yes, we may have been funded by oil. But we were founded on fish, and now with wired wilderness, a thriving health care industry, a global cargo center and millions of visitors every year, we are so much more.
The last column in this series will look at ways Alaska can build on these strengths while moving into the clean-energy economy.
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 9:32 am
Ain’t it great(snark)? Alaska is now a sustainable part of industrial civilization. So take all the fish,trees,oil and whatever nature would have to offer, what could possibly go wrong?
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 9:54 am
Alaska:
https://www.electricchoice.com/blog/electricity-on-average-do-homes/
7584 kWh/capita/year (that’s a lot)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska
1.7 million km2 (3.5 times France)
742k population (90 times less than France)
Alaska also offers some of the highest hydroelectric power potential in the country from its numerous rivers. Large swaths of the Alaskan coastline offer wind and geothermal energy potential as well.
Alaska wind resources (excellent):
https://tinyurl.com/yap9og3w
A look at the map shows the mountainous character of the land, offering endless opportunities of pumped hydro-storage, way beyond the requirements of Alaska itself.
This is a no-brainer: Alaska can have a renewable energy base before everybody else, even at these polar latitudes.
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 11:01 am
Great Cloggie ” Alaska can have a renewable energy base before everybody else” That way when all of this happens, They will stop all of the industrial practices like mining for minerals, oil and cutting down all the trees.I can see it now, electric cars, snowmobiles and air planes, what a paradise.
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 12:21 pm
Alaska and renewable energy: a match made in heaven, according to Scientific American.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-rural-alaska-can-teach-the-world-about-renewable-energy/
Due to remoteness, fossil-based kwh prices can amount to $1!
The renewable energy transition in Alaska is ECONOMY-DRIVEN, not by “idealism” regarding climate change.
Some 1.2 billion people on the planet do not currently have access to electricity. And there’s a lot these people can learn from Alaska. “Microgrids, not large-scale power generation, will be the most effective way to provide electricity to those still unconnected,” Wilder says.
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 12:38 pm
Cloggie,”The renewable energy transition in Alaska is ECONOMY-DRIVEN”.
So what? The FF industrial civ we live in now is ECONOMY-DRIVEN too. As long as there is money to be made in the extraction industry, Alaskan economic growth will be all about oil, timber, ore mining, the sea food industry and on and on unit exhaustion.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 1:07 pm
Dave
You can’t reason with clogg..Just look at the sources he uses. They are fake news from techie nerd sites..He is not sophisticated enough to question them..He lives in a total fantasy land. Solar and wind made up less than one percent of total energy last year.Per IEA..Thy are scams for people who dont understand science and engineering.
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 1:33 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Alaska
“In early 2010, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory released the first comprehensive update of wind energy potential by state since 1993, showing that Alaska has the potential to install 494,700 MW of wind power, capable of generating 1,620,000 million kWh/year.[2] Alaska used 6,291 million kWh in 2011.”
Alaskan wind power has the potential to power the entire US.
http://www.groundtruthtrekking.org/Issues/Renewable-Energy-in-Alaska.html
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 3:15 pm
Cloggie “Alaskan wind power has the potential to power the entire US.”
Where will the tens of thousands of miles of copper wire for the transmission lines come from? Will Canada allow a twenty mile wide corridor through their country for all of those thousands of transmission towers too?Does your calculation also consider the power loss in the transmission of the power all the way to Florida?
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 4:57 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Losses
‘As of 1980, the longest cost-effective distance for direct-current transmission was determined to be 7,000 kilometres (4,300 miles).“
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 5:07 pm
Thats great Cloggie, Now where was all that new copper wire going to come from?
Anonymouse1 on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 7:22 pm
Maybe the uS should put cloggen-tard in charge, because he always the answer(often in the form of a web-link) to any question, or engineering issue. And the greater the scope or scale of the issue, be it moon-bases, flying electric cars, matter teleportation, self-replicating machines that build themselves, ocean going ships that last for hundreds of years, etc, cloggen-fraud will ALWAYS have a web-link he can direct you to telling it can, has, or will be done any day now. As long as you gloss over the fact most of his links frequently do not support the assertions and in some cases, do the exact opposite. OR his ‘references’ are as dodgy as cloggen-fraud himself, well…then its all good.
But the real question one should be asking him, is not where the copper is going to come from, or anything like that, but the REAL question should be…
Why isn’t cloggen-fraud been put in charge of well..everything? He has the all answers to everything, and everything is possible, so, the real head-scratcher is why clogg-retard here is wasting all his time on PO.com posting wiki-links, re-hashing WwII, linking youttube vids and NOT over-seeing the Alaska-to-Florida Wind power project. I mean, hes posted another set of links, so, what’s the hold up?
It cant be copper, because cloggen-toilet will tell you ‘we’ can melt down pennies for that. OR that turns out to be too much trouble, we can just mine the Moon, or Mars even for the copper we need.
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 8:44 pm
HEY Anonymouse1……I am ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!
Dooma on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 11:13 pm
Ahhh Cloggie. I could just imagine the glint in your eye when you purchased a solar-powered calculator. Put your hand over the panels, and the numerals go out. Move your finger and WOW!
I could imagine your brain racing..”we could power the world with lots of these calculators..or just build one massive one”
Cloggie on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 12:06 am
Alternatives for copper:
http://www.utilityproducts.com/articles/print/volume-16/issue-8/product-focus/wire-cable-fiber-optic/time-to-fight-back-copper-alternatives-replacing-pure-copper-wire.html
The fact that Alaska has the potential to power the entire US with wind, doesn’t mean I suggested it should be done. Central USA has lots of potential itself. There is a need for power-to-gas conversion.
But gentlemen dave, Davy, Dooma, millimind and the mouse… by all means, talk yourself in the grave. Suits me fine, geopolitically. And sneering is so much more fun, far more than boringly being constructive, that’s so “square”
North-America the “can-do” society, hahahahaha. You will always be a colony, either of the youknowwho like now or again of Europe, in a decade or two, like you have been for three centuries.
Now do us in Europe a favor, import 100 million more third worlders, so that the North-American depression will be total and the youknowwho will use them as cannon-fodder against whitey, so the latter gets mentally prepared for the breakup and we can cleanse that exceptionalism lunacy from your brains. Wouldn’t fit with the coming economic US-status post-dollar reserve currency of the likes of Romania anyway. Don’t worry about renewable technology, we’ll bring that with us from Europe.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 12:48 am
Alternatives to reality:
http:Peak.Oil.com Pretty much anything that falls out of cloggen-cohens cakehole.
Cloggie on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 12:55 am
“cloggen-cohens”
You can get them out of the jungle, but…
dave thompson on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 1:39 am
Cloggie,”The fact that Alaska has the potential to power the entire US with wind, doesn’t mean I suggested it should be done”.
OK that sounds fair, but what was the point in bringing it up in the first place?
GregT on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 1:57 am
“The fact that Alaska has the potential to power the entire US with wind, doesn’t mean I suggested it should be done”
It would make more sense for Alaska to supply electricity to Russia, than it would to supply electricity to the continental US.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 2:09 am
Because cloggen-fraud always presents his fancicial tales, as if they represent techs and or projects that are either underway, planned, or practically completed. IoW, he always presents his fantasies as if they represent concrete reality. Occasionally, he prefaces his stupid tales with the qualifier ‘could’, but that is fairly rare. He will happily tell anyhow who listen, that hydrogen fuel is economical, clean, and is powering the world, or that electric planes are filling the skies…blah blah blah you get the idea.
He regularly promotes novel lab and demo projects by university students to major consumer or industrial products that everyone is, or is about to adapt.
A feature with cloggen-tard, not a bug.
dave thompson on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 2:10 am
GregT, I thought that too when the Cloggie brought the whole thing up. However that would still be a hell of a lot of copper to put in place.
Cloggie on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 3:01 am
OK that sounds fair, but what was the point in bringing it up in the first place?
To confirm the basic premisse of this article, namely that the renewable energy potential for Alaska is EXCELLENT.
It would make more sense for Alaska to supply electricity to Russia, than it would to supply electricity to the continental US.
Russia has no energy problems, never will. Idiotic vast country and underpopulated. Has all the wind resources it will ever need.
Neighboring likewise empty Mongolia has all the potential to supply China for 100% with wind electricity. Mongolia currently manages to be one of the most polluting countries on earth. This could rapidly change though.
https://mongolianobserver.mn/harnessing-inexhaustible-resources-wind-energy/
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/ulan-bator-the-worlds-second-most-polluted-city/15291
dave thompson on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 3:31 am
Cloggie,”To confirm the basic premisse of this article, namely that the renewable energy potential for Alaska is EXCELLENT”.
Get back to me when all of this excellent renewable energy takes over and the oil companies all close up shop. OK?
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 3:51 am
If alaska’s potential is so awesome cloggen-zimmer, then why are telling everyone here? Maybe you should find the website where people empowered to decide such matters congregate, and ask there if they will green-light your Alaska-to-floriduh wind project. Show em a bunch of your stupid web links. What more would they need? Besides, you’ve never been alaska and never will, so what do you care anyhow?
Cloggie on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 4:12 am
Get back to me when all of this excellent renewable energy takes over and the oil companies all close up shop. OK?
Deal.
If alaska’s potential is so awesome Clogmeister, then why are telling everyone here?
Because I can. Type away and hit the “Post Comment” button, that’s all there is to it. Easy-peasy.
Maybe you should find the website where people empowered to decide such matters congregate, and ask there if they will green-light your Alaska-to-floriduh wind project.
I have no such project, Europe is my cup-of-tea. You can figure it out all by yourself.
Besides, you’ve never been alaska and never will, so what do you care anyhow?
I could not care less about Alaska. Perhaps it goes back to Russia, after “The Break”. As if they don’t have enough land already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_America
In the 19th century Russians briefly owned land that soon will be Mexican, again.
https://tinyurl.com/ybwu4p89
They almost made it to San Francisco:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Ross,_California
As you can see: nothing is static in history. Today is today and tomorrow will be different.
Davy on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 5:43 am
“I could not care less about Alaska. Perhaps it goes back to Russia, after “The Break”. As if they don’t have enough land already.”
“The Break” lol, now we have a new nederNazi term for the end of the US. It is just as likely Russia will break. The Asian part going to China. Russia has only a few years before a serious test in a post Putin era. Actually the most likely next break is the EU. It would be the easiest because their union is not natural or realistic.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 8:50 am
Getting back to the article and away from the Cloggendas love-fest, one reason the author is able to innumerate all the resource positives is population density. It’s as though Alaska is 19th century contiguous America where resources per individual were bountiful. As LTG expands its effects on all things natural the resource rush to Alaska will imitate the gold rush but by an exponential factor.