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Page added on May 29, 2018
Art Berman: Think Oil Is Getting Expensive? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet.
After issuing clear warnings on this program that sub-$50 oil prices were going to be short-lived, oil expert and geological consultant Art Berman returns to the podcast this week to explain why today’s $70 oil prices will go higher — likely much higher — and start materially contricting world economic growth.
Art explains how the current glut of oil created by the US shale boom — along with high crude output by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers — is a temporary anomaly. Fundamentally, we are not finding nearly as much oil as we need to continue the trajectory of the global demand curve. And at the same time, we’re extracting our reserves at a faster rate than ever. That’s a mathematical recipe for a coming supply crunch — it’s not a matter of if, but when:
The price of oil has gone up 30%+ percent just here in the last year alone. There are some very good reasons for that.
In the United States, we’ve been drawing down our reserves, our inventory and the amount of oil we have in storage, consistently since February of 2017. We’re going into the 15th month of drawing from storage each week because we’re not producing enough to meet the need.
To those paying attention: the United States is right now producing more oil than it ever has in its history. We are a million barrels a day higher than the peak in 1970 — the one that King Hubbert got in trouble for warning about. We’re higher by 50,000 or so barrels per month of production. Yet, here we are, still sucking oil out of storage. What does that tell you? There is only one way to interpret that: We are using more than we are producing.
Countries like the United States and western Europe; our demand is pretty much stable. We are not a big growing economy anymore. But the emerging markets – Asia, Latin America, and Africa – they are going full bore. That is where something like 80% of world demand growth is coming from.
Never ever lose sight of the fact that the United States imports a ton of oil. I mean we are importing, on average, 7 million barrels of crude oil a day. I mean that is more than many continents use a day. Why are we importing all that when we are also producing 11 million barrels a day?
We are nowhere near energy self-sufficiency, nor do I think we will ever get there.
We’re in deep trouble.
41 Comments on "Art Berman: Think Oil Is Getting Expensive? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet."
"Lucifer" on Tue, 29th May 2018 3:56 pm
Nearly everyone in the world is in deep trouble or will be soon.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:08 pm
Lucifer
We have been consuming more oil every year than we have discovered for over 34 years straight..and last year we consumed ten times as much oil as we discovered..stick a fork in us..We are done..
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
Plantagenet on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:09 pm
1990s: Watch out for Peak Oil
2000s: “Drill Baby Drill”
2010s: “Frack baby Frack
2020s: “Watch out for Peak OIl.”
Cheers!
Cheers!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:11 pm
“Lucifer”
Have an exit plan ready for when shit collapses..it will be fast and will happen at the speed of technology..Be ready its coming..You dont want to starve or become zombie food..
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:15 pm
Plantagenet
The IEA has stuck to the same prediction over the last decade. And they are the worlds leading experts..
2009
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html
2017
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Cheers!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:19 pm
People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9
DerHundistlos on Tue, 29th May 2018 5:20 pm
“McPherson predicts end of civilization as early as this summer or as late as next summer”
There you have it people: Guy McPherson says that by as early as this summer or as late as next summer ” we will have a collapse of civilization induced by the inability to grow, transport, and distribute grains at large scale”, (a climate induced collapse).
When this happens, Trump and his Republican confederates in congress should be strung-up to every lamp post for stoping society from taking meaningful action when it may have made a difference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw0AAsGaDg0&t=96s
Anonymous on Tue, 29th May 2018 6:02 pm
Berman has trashed the Haynesville over the years. Called it a classic peak shape decline. Well check it out now. It’s ba….ack!
https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/05/22/haynesville-la-update-through-february-2018/
Sissyfuss on Tue, 29th May 2018 9:29 pm
My goodness, Derhund, there is nothing I want more than for Dr Death to be wrong in his prognostications. If he is only partially correct events coming will lead to a nightmare existence for all living creatures.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 9:45 pm
Anonymous
Its not even half as much as it was from its peak back in 2011.. And look at those monster decline rates..And that shale play aint shit anyways..all shale eggs are now in one rickety Permian basket..and not one producer in that area is making money currently..and they never will because shale takes ten times more wells to drill than conventional..and the decline rates are gigantic..
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
better find a new horse to plug..this one died at the gate..
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 9:48 pm
Guy Mchpherson said back in 2010 lecture that by 2015 half of New York city would be underwater..And he said business insider was his source..LOL He is always making false claims and his supporters believe him because he was a fired professor who tried to sleep with his students..he never choose to walk away from empire..he was fired for sexual harassment..And even his tenure couldn’t save him.
Cloggie on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:00 pm
Millimind again with his deceptive quotes: “IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows”, leaving out essential additional statements.
Here is what the IEA really thinks:
“Oil demand won’t peak before 2040, despite Paris deal: IEA”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-outlook-iea-idUSKBN13B0OP
Cloggie on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:04 pm
“Global oil demand to withstand rise of electric vehicles: IEA”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-outlook-iea/global-oil-demand-to-withstand-rise-of-electric-vehicles-iea-idUSKBN1DE007
(I think the IEA underestimates the potential of the e-vehicle, fuel cells, ride-sharing and autonomous driving)
Cloggie on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:17 pm
“We’re in deep trouble.”
No we’re not, at least not in Europe. $150 oil would mean a run into renewable energy. The altervatives are waiting in the wings, their growth will be massive, economic crisis or not.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:23 pm
Clogg
WTF are talking about? I was talking about peak oil supply, not demand..And the IEA is right..Peak oil demand wont happen anytime soon..and 150 oil won’t speed up renewables because they are used to produce electricity and oil is used for 90 percent of the worlds transportation..
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:25 pm
Clogg
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
(Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Its never going to happen..its just a hopeful story that you are clinging to because you have no choice..lol
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:27 pm
Clogg
Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
According to the German Army leaked study. When the oil shortages hit, Wall street will crash, the public will lose all faith/trust in their institutions, and the global economy and world governments will collapse..
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/
Inside the new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse (Ahmed, 2017)
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/the-new-economic-science-of-capitalisms-slow-burn-energy-collapse-d07344fab6be
Peer Reviewed Study: Society Could Collapse In A Decade, Predicts Historian (Turchin, 2010)
https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a
NASA Peer Reviewed Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
The Royal Society: Peer Reviewed Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3574335/
Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014
Peer Reviewed Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf
kiss your ass goodbye soon!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:29 pm
Clogg, Listen to the IEA chief..They are the worlds leading experts..
2009
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html
2017
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 10:30 pm
Clogg
George Soros warns the European Union is on the brink of collapse — and Trump is partly to blame
http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-president-trump-eu-collapse-2018-5
Looks like your region has bigger problems than peak oil right now..Europe might collapse before the oil shortage hits them..LOL
DerHundistlos on Tue, 29th May 2018 11:45 pm
Well, if we are going down as soon as he’s predicting, can you blame the fellow for going after some young, strange mama?
GregT on Wed, 30th May 2018 12:15 am
“kiss your ass goodbye soon!”
Stop misrepresenting other peoples’ work MM. None of the articles that you linked come to same conclusions as you have, and many aren’t even peer reviewed.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 12:25 am
Greg
Your screams of denial sound like the squealing of a pig beginning delivered to the butchers shop. The volume of their protestations being directly proportional to the proximity of their inevitable fate..
LMFAO!
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 12:31 am
Greg
What year was the economic collapse supposed to happen according to the limits to growth computer simulations?
Looking Back on the Limits of Growth – Smithsonian
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/looking-back-on-the-limits-of-growth-125269840/
You dumb anti Semite neckbeard…EH!!!
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 12:44 am
“The easiest thing of all is to deceive oneself; for we believe whatever we want to believe.”
—DEMOSTHENES
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 12:45 am
We must leave the planet and live on the moon, says Amazon CEO
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/amazon-jeff-bezos-moon-space-blue-origin-latest-resources-a8373151.html
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 12:45 am
I dont blame my baby boomer parents for the collapse. They’re just brainwashed. Old peope seem to have completely bought into propaganda. They just repeat things from cable news verbatim without thinking.
Anonymous on Wed, 30th May 2018 1:28 am
Milli: Wrong about not even half of peak. Per shale profile, it is about 75% of peak.
Antius on Wed, 30th May 2018 5:19 am
“We must leave the planet and live on the moon, says Amazon CEO
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/amazon-jeff-bezos-moon-space-blue-origin-latest-resources-a8373151.html
”
I am a proponent of human space colonisation. But the moon is a desert that makes the Sahara look like a tropical paradise. It is composed of about a dozen basic elements and is severely depleted in just about everything else. On the moon, human faeces would be more valuable than gold.
In the future, human beings may live in Earth orbit using materials mined from the moon to construct space stations. The moon itself will never be much more than an outpost for humanity; a mining colony with as much work as possible done using robots.
Davy on Wed, 30th May 2018 5:38 am
Humans need to figure out a way to move towards a population of 1BIL. To begin this process population issues must be agreed on as the central human problem then a long term carrying capacity established. It will need to be recognized this will also require technological standards and economic affluence to drop. The worst part of this agreement is the horrible need for death to enter the math. 200MIL deaths over births a year on average over many decades will have to be understood and accepted. Currently we are the other direction by 80MIL. Every year we delay this process it will just get harder. Life expectancies will have to drop and births limited. The entire spectrum of all causes of death revisited. We can begin this process by not extending old age when terminal illnesses enter their last period and limiting saving the young who can only marginally survive. These horrible thoughts are about as difficult as humans colonizing space. The difference between space colonization and this proposal is this proposal will happen eventually. It is a natural law and space colonization a fantasy IMO.
Wienerschmieltzen on Wed, 30th May 2018 2:27 pm
WE are running out. We are always running out. It’s gonna crash like the check’s in the mail. It’s always in the mail.
Boat on Wed, 30th May 2018 8:45 pm
Mm
Chess boy, along with your outdated links even your insults are redundant. Where is that brain power you talk about.
Boat on Wed, 30th May 2018 9:24 pm
Go to eia. Search net imports by country. Then search net imports. You will find the US hasn’t imported this small of an amount of oil since the 80’s. Berman is a shyster and sensationalizing fool. The last quarter talleyed net 2700 mbpd or so. Canada and Mexico net exported more than that to the US during that period.
Yes the boat declares N America to be oil and petrolium products independent. Sucks to be the only chart reading dude on an oil site. Highschool educated to boot. Educated fools just can’t read friggen charts. You should be ashamed and go back to class. Or for only $19.99 buy my video….do it my way…lol
Boat on Wed, 30th May 2018 9:26 pm
Prove me wrong peckerhead. Awaiting your response.
Cloggie on Wed, 30th May 2018 9:47 pm
“George Soros warns the European Union is on the brink of collapse — and Trump is partly to blame”
The EU is a Marxist construct, formed during the last years of the empire. It is not the end of European integration. History European unity:
EGKS > EEC > EC > EU > Euro-Siberian Confederation/Gaullist “Europe of the Fatherlands”
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/12/03/paris-berlin-moscow/
European unity will be reconstituted along the conservative Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis, in response to the implosion of Pax Americana and the rise of China to the new #1.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 10:13 pm
Boat
A link from last year is outdated? says who? You? LOL
Here is one from a few months ago..
Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
MASTERMIND on Wed, 30th May 2018 10:15 pm
This part was really interesting..
Art Berman: “If you took Bakken or the Eagle Ford and you just stopped drilling any new wells, you just have 10,000 or 12,000 wells or more. In the Bakken, I think you have close to 15,000. The Eagle Ford has maybe 12. You have a gazillion wells that are producing. You just said okay, we are not drilling any new wells. Those entire fields would decline 30% a year. It is 30%. It does not mean that a new well is going to decline at 30%. The base production and the field itself is. Basically, in three and a half years it is producing nothing.”
Chris Martenson: “Wow.”
Art Berman: “Wow, that is sobering. That is the part of the shale story that we do not want to think about. That is that the decline rates are four or five times higher than a conventional well. We kind of all know that. We even acknowledge it. But we do not really feel it because they are drilling so many wells all the time. I mean the Bakken has 60 rigs working in it right now. Here is a play that I am telling you is not going to grow anymore. Yet, there are 60 drill rigs running all the time in that play. There are always new wells. I showed a graph just recently. The North Dakota agency that reports on production, they release their data every month. There is a record number of wells in the Bakken. Yet, every month, the production declines. Today, production is 5% less than it was in December 2014, which was the peak. There are 4000 wells more now than there were then. There is a really good measure of what that decline rate looks like. You have to drill. You have to have a quarter more or 4000 wells more than you did three and a half years ago, and you still cannot get to the same level of output.”
Boat on Thu, 31st May 2018 6:36 pm
Mm
High decline rates for fracked oil is old news. What is new is how ultimate recovery in the Permian jumped 3 years ago and keeps climbing. This is inspite of naysayers every year saying the Permian has been cherry picked and no good drilling areas are left.
Me? No clue when the peak happens, I just watch the numbers make liars out of Berman types. N America is oil independent. Funny they don’t talk about that.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 31st May 2018 6:49 pm
ICE Agent Decides He Wants Kids After Seeing Incredible Love And Devotion Of Parents Begging Him Not To Take Their Child
https://www.theonion.com/ice-agent-decides-he-wants-kids-after-seeing-incredible-1826461558?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SF&utm_content=Main&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true
MASTERMIND on Thu, 31st May 2018 6:52 pm
Boat
Berman has never said the Permian is cherry picked..And he is an actual scientist and you are a fool…And decline rates might be old news, but its still a current event..That is why its being talked about..You dumb denier..
And here is one from a few months ago..
Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
I wouldn’t ignore the IEA, Saudis, HSBC Bank, and the former head of the EIA..
Davy on Thu, 31st May 2018 7:35 pm
“I just watch the numbers make liars out of Berman types. N America is oil independent. Funny they don’t talk about that.”
I am pretty amazed at how US fracking played out. It is an amazing achievement that I was naysaying for a several years. It has bought us a break but it is still a retirement party. What is after? There ain’t shit after. After is not far off either. Renewables are a vital next step as extenders but a joke as an energy transition paradigm. Modern civilization has a shelf life and most of us will be there when the time comes to pull it off the shelf. What I just said was a combination of doom and optimism. Enjoy the next few years. Amazing things are ahead but many of those amazing things will be dark and dangerous. If you are living good then quit whining. Try to enjoy because it won’t last.
Davy on Thu, 31st May 2018 7:37 pm
mm, start using tinyURL on some of your messy links. You are screwing threads up.