Page added on March 24, 2015
This is The Morning Shift, our one-stop daily roundup of all the auto news that’s actually important — all in one place every weekday morning. Or, you could spend all day waiting for other sites to parse it out to you one story at a time. Isn’t your time more important?
1st Gear: It’s The Economy, Stupid
There was this idea called “peak car” that cropped up in the post-Carpocalypse era when there was a sudden drop in car buying and, more importantly, car driving. Pundits reasonably wondered if we hadn’t reached a point where there would be a permanent stagnation in miles driven as consumers adjusted to commuting less and taking more transit.
Nope.
A glut of cheap oil, an expanding economy, and a lot of good cheap cars mean that people are driving in droves.
Travel will rise this year to potentially top the 2007 peak of 3.03 trillion miles, Alan Pisarski, a transportation analyst who has advised states from Virginia to Arizona, said by phone from Lake Barcroft, Virginia, March 17. “I would’ve said that even without gasoline prices dropping, but that makes it all the more certain.”
This, of course, is sort of a bad thing if you don’t build cars or sell tires.
I know we’re an automotive site, but we’re also an enthusiast site and we’re also human beings, and more miles driven isn’t a good thing for most people.
First, the reason why we have so much cheap oil is largely a decision by OPEC (read: Saudi Arabia) to drive the prices down long enough to discourage U.S. domestic production of oil. Why do they want to do that? Because they want us dependent on them for a long, long time and have so much money they can take a three-year hit.
Second, even if that wasn’t the case, it’s not like the roads are filling up with vintage BRE Datsuns, it’s just commuters in beigemobiles and SUVs. Commuter Culture is antithetical to car culture.
People who would rather not drive to work shouldn’t have to drive to work. We should aim to build a society where there’s a reasonable alternative to driving for people who don’t want to drive. I love driving, I love cars, I love that by living in a city I don’t have to drive to work, I love that I can go drinking and not worry about having to get in a car.
This isn’t good news. Peak Car isn’t happening today, but it should happen.
22 Comments on "Americans Drove 3 Trillion Miles Last Year, Prove ‘Peak Car’ Was Hype"
Plantagenet on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 5:39 pm
Not only will people drive more miles because of the oil glut and cheap gasoline—they’ll shift back to buying RVs, SUVs and giant pick up trucks.
Its really too bad Obama and the Ds chickened out on instituting a carbon tax in 2009—-there isn’t much chance its going to happen now.
PeterEV on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 5:53 pm
>>Peak Car isn’t happening today, but it should happen.<<
Why?
If the average car many years ago got 20 mpg and future cars get 40 mpg, you could conceivably double the number of cars on the road.
There is always the possibility that the means of refueling will turn to solar and wind with energy stored in battery to be used for powering vehicles.
"peak cars" is something to discuss around a beer or two.
The main problems are overpopulation, environmental degradation, resource loss, and our decreasing ability to deal with past transgressions.
BobInget on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 7:32 pm
Speaking of driving, HRH is stuck in dog-leg-low.
Of course we drove those trillions of miles, how else could we burn 19 million barrels, seven imported, every frigging day?
Here’s the bad news; HRH’s so called ‘glut’
evaporated in December 2014. Do the math.
How many weeks can we make do with only Canadian and Mexican imports before we hit up SPR?
Either everyone here thinks I make this shit up
or your just not paying attention.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are getting set for the final face-off. What could go wrong?
BobInget on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 7:33 pm
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/saudi-iran-border-security-yemen-oman-is-houthi-zaydi.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=5cd77ed277-March_24_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-5cd77ed277-102439653#
Cloud9 on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 7:37 pm
Look at the last ten years and see if you spot a trend.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
GregT on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 7:51 pm
When gasoline hit $1.00 per litre here back in 2005, the local Buy and Sell paper was full of full sized pickup trucks for sale. People eventually figured out that they couldn’t sell them for what they paid for them, so they continued to drive them and took a loss. Seven, eight, and nine years later, from 2012-2014 when gasoline was at all time highs, the top two best selling vehicles in North America were full sized pickup trucks, and three out of the top ten were pick ups.
Gasoline today at the pump here is $1.24 per litre, yet some people still believe that gas prices are low, and continue to buy full sized trucks.
People generally have extremely short attention spans. Simple people, like the lil planter here on PO.com.
Makati1 on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 9:06 pm
Another BS article. that averages out to ~12,000 miles per vehicle. It is not possible to know the miles driven, no matter how much you want to. Those `250 million vehicles get anywhere from 8 to 28 mpg. There is no way to calculate anything from the available facts.
Garbage in … garbage out.
roman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 10:59 pm
@Cloud9
That graph has to be wrong. If gas consumption went down 3x gas would be less than $0.25
marmico on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 5:00 am
The graph is not wrong. But it is not the graph of actual gasoline consumption which is here
Cloud9’s graph even fools old hands in the oil patch like Rockman.
Look at this chart for historical perspective.
Davy on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 6:16 am
Marmi, a simple slowdown in economic activity at this critical economic time with central banks in tatters everywhere will render the positive nature of all your Fluffy graphs negative and ugly. You will be loath to reference them because there will be nothing but wet matted fluff. What good is that? We are close to that time.
I hope you don’t leave like other corns that have packed their bags. The NOo (Noony) finally moved on being unable to make any traction with his cheerleading. Some have converted and are still here. You are a holdout still crowing but not with much substance.
You talk about some here being fooled you are the greatest fool on this site trusting in the new normal economics without a shred of doubt. You trust the fundamentals they churn out with gluttony. What a foolish corn you are. You like what the thieves like Goldman say about markets when in reality they are market making with lies. The central bank actions and jawboning is nothing suspect to you. You are living a Lie Marmi and I look forward to when your nakedness is for all to see.
Mark Ziegler on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 6:51 am
Who else thinks cars are cheap?
viewsaftercr
marmico on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 6:51 am
Blah, blah, blah.
All the geologic-types (Hubbert & descendents) estimates of future oil production have been underestimated. At the same time, all of the economic-types (EIA, IEA & major oilcos) estimates have been overestimated.
It is unfortunate that you can’t visualize the in-between reality.
Revi on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 7:09 am
Cars are what our culture does. It’s hard to disentangle your personality from the car you drive. Who drives a prius? A large pickup? You know.
It’s what we do, just like the Mayans grew corn. We are consumers and we drive. It won’t end until we do.
farmlad on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 8:12 am
Marmico Thanks for posting the eia graph of motor grade gasoline product supplied It is way more in line with my observation of the amount of activity at gas stations and the average MPG of vehicles today vs years ago ( not much improvement at all) http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFUPUS2&f=M
Now if someone would share an explanation of the difference compared to this one http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
farmlad on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 8:24 am
Looks to me like the price spread keeps on narrowing between gasoline and diesel. could this be an indicator of a tremendous slow down in industry, oil field activity, freight transportation etc?
Davy on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 8:57 am
Farm, me being a farmer I buy lots of diesel and I drive a Jetta TDI to commute. I have been watching the prices naturally. I was wondering the same thing yesterday. I see it as a likely sign of demand slow down but I will leave it up to the experts. I will look at the fluff graphs Marmi pukes out but I would rather hear from the real experts Short and Rock.
marmico on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 9:18 am
Ya, I notice that the real experts like the Rockman takes a wide berth responding to the marmico. The quart shy of oil is just a buffoon.
Davy on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 9:47 am
Marmi, please give me a freddy fluff graph to describe your above comment. Your name calling is useless.
marmico on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 9:54 am
Now if someone would share an explanation of the difference compared to this one
Exxon and other major oilcos are not in the potato chip, beef jerky, Gatorade, etc. business. They have divested retail gasoline stations from their business units which have been taken over by non-oil independent retailers. Think filling up at Sam’s (Walmart).
That’s the difference.
marmico on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 9:59 am
Your name calling is useless
That’s all you do you 2$ bill. Indenturing your young sons to baling hay on The Little House on the Prairie when with some mental acuity they may work towards scholarships to attend MIT or Caltech to make a difference.
You are pathetic.
Davy on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 10:08 am
Marmi, you warm my heart with your anger. I know I am getting through your hard head of denial when you get angry. You are on the same level as the Makster but on the other side of the spectrum. Both you guys are good at criticism but take it back like whining pussies. Grow up Marmi and gets some nuggets like a real man.
Revi on Wed, 25th Mar 2015 10:56 am
We are all turning into farmers soon, or serfs. Check out the other article on this site:
http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/financial-feudalism