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Page added on August 18, 2016
Great resource shift leaves investors walking tightrope
Tom Nelson, head of commodities and resources at Investec Asset Management, spends almost as much time tracking Tesla Motors as he does ExxonMobil or BP . Why? If the electric carmaker lives up to its pledge to upend the auto industry, it will have serious implications for oil demand.
Navigating profound industry transitions is particularly hard for fund managers. Getting on the right side of history isn’t enough, they have to pick emerging winners, judge which of the dominant incumbents can successfully adapt and maintain returns for their own investors as the landscape changes. Nowhere is the challenge more acute than for energy and commodity investors.
“You could have lost your shirt betting that the internal combustion engine would replace the horse and cart,” says Mr Nelson, whose interest in one of the great technological transformations of the last century is more than academic.
How oil demand pans out over the next 15 years will wield a massive influence on investment portfolios, because oil and gas companies globally comprise more than four trillion of dollars of stock market value.
Energy companies constitute 7 per cent of the S&P 500, while about one-third of the FTSE 100 is represented by oil, gas and mining companies such as Rio Tinto, Glencore and BHP Billiton. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, one of the most popular natural resources exchange traded funds, still has 83 per cent of its holdings in oil and gas companies.
The gap between a future that looks increasingly based on renewable energy and investment portfolios still long on fossil fuels sharpens the pressure on fund managers to correctly model how radical the change in the energy mix will prove. Over the past five years, the share of electricity that the world’s 20 major economies are generating from the sun and the wind has jumped more than 70 per cent, according to data compiled for the FT by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Money managers are devouring long research reports from consultants and analysts on the concept of peak oil demand. One produced this year by McKinsey estimates that if market penetration of electric, autonomous and shared cars accelerates, oil demand will peak at about 2030 at less than 100m barrels per day. That is not far from current levels of 95.9m b/d.
However, the rapid advance of renewable technologies underlines that successfully predicting the trends does not automatically mean investors will reap returns from them.
The amount of solar power installed over the past few years, for example, has exceeded experts’ optimistic predictions, according to Poppy Allonby, who runs a new energy fund for BlackRock.
“It’s a lesson in disruption, in that things can happen very quickly,” says Ms Allonby. “And it’s quite difficult to build into most traditional forecasting. We’re now in a situation where the cleaner, alternative technologies are actually comparable or in some cases cheaper than the incumbent technologies so that’s a dramatic change from a few years ago.”
Yet share prices in solar companies have been notoriously volatile. Despite the boost to renewable energy from the global climate accord struck in Paris in December, shares of solar makers have fallen 30 per cent this year. US solar company SunEdison, which had a valuation of $10bn last year, filed for bankruptcy in April.
And at Investec, Mr Nelson and his team are taking developments in the electric car industry so seriously that they hired an energy scenario modeller with a PhD to help forecast the future, country by country, out to 2050.
The Investec Global Energy Fund has about 5 per cent invested in battery technology and renewable energy stocks such as First Solar, and Mr Nelson expects that proportion to grow.
“We’ve done a huge amount of work on this in terms of infrastructure, battery technology, economics, range safety and consumer confidence,” he says. “Those trends have very profound implications both for the likely direction of oil and gas prices but also for the capital allocation decisions that our [portfolio] companies are making today.”
Markets Insight
If peak oil arrives, investors will need to get smarter
Investors assumed oil would be more valuable in the future, but all bets are off if demand falls, writes Amy Myers Jaffe.
If picking successful renewable technologies producers can be treacherous, some investors say betting on the natural resources with a bright future can be a safer option.
Pieter Busscher, who manages the Smart Materials Strategy fund at asset manager RobecoSAM in Zurich, says that miners of lithium — the raw material for lithium-ion batteries — are attractive because it is too early to predict the precise battery chemistry that will ultimately be successful.
Demand for lithium as the base raw material in battery cathodes has jumped 30 per cent in the past five years, and there is now a shortage of supply, according to London-based Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
A cut in the cost of lithium-ion batteries to a range of $100 to $120 kWh from an estimated $300 kWh will be a tipping point, Mr Busscher reckons, that could prompt a spike in demand for electric vehicles and start affecting oil demand within 10 years. His fund has holdings in lithium miners Albemarle and FMC, battery material supplier Umicore, and carbon fibre maker Hexcel.
Even if picking the raw material is easier, it is no time for energy investors to sit back and relax.
When it comes to the future of the transport system Blackrock’s Ms Allonby says they are “always looking at those disruption models and thinking ‘where could we be wrong’ — and where could we be wrong on both sides. Where could we be wrong in thinking oil demand is going to continue to grow forever and where could we be wrong in thinking there’s going to be massive disruption.’’
47 Comments on "Great resource shift leaves investors walking tightrope"
Cloggie on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:01 am
This is precisely the reason why the beancounter site theoildrum.com closed shop.
They couldn’t wait that long for the “told you so moment” and prefered to start a family instead.
And now poor shortonoil is stuck with articles like “America: you will go insane”, provoking unwanted responses, where he would prefer to stress that we are, well, short on oil, as well as claiming that solar doesn’t really work that well.
Regarding the essence of this article: not even Don Juan could hold an orgasm for fifteen years. I can imagine that behind the scenes, this board must have internal discussions, similar to those theoildrum.com had, which lead to their decision to auto-euthanize.
Perhaps a name-change could be helpful to avoid being called “peakoil fossils”.
Boat on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:06 am
Solar, Wind, EV’s and batteries are not there yet but the markets have grown big enough to attract major development dollars. Costs are dropping while the performance of the products are getting better. I would say wind is the leading candidate to reach the cost threshold of a breakout into massive growth. Solar needs another 5 years or so, EV’s closer to 10.
PracticalMaina on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:11 am
boat, solar needs ten more years ev needs 10, how do you figure? Solar is a profitable investment now in most areas, if it were not so difficult to import a Chinese vehicle I could already have a cheap ev.
Solar hot water was cheaper per btu in certain areas a hundred years ago, ditto wind mills….
Davy on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:41 am
Clog, unlike you that is stuck in 20th century thinking typical of cornucopians, we have moved on from a strictly peak oil discussion because peak oil is only one of the collapse issues. PO is a well explored and proven predicament that is now and will be our end sooner than later. We are now discussing socio-political collapse, abrupt climate change, and economic collapse in addition because they are now and they will be our end soon also. You are hiding behind your affluence in intellectual laziness and losing track of reality.
Boat on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:52 am
PracticalMaina,
The payoff time is still to long, the hassle to tedious and upfront costs to big for the masses. Large cities are not going to allow windmills. Hot water? Not enough savings.
Boat on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:52 am
PracticalMaina,
The payoff time is still to long, the hassle to tedious and upfront costs to big for the masses. Large cities are not going to allow windmills. Hot water? Not enough savings.
HARM on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 11:14 am
@Davy,
Cloggie is hardly a troll or even necessarily a cornucopian. He’s just pointing out the obvious (to any casual observer) that: (a) this site is called peakoil.com, (b) we haven’t yet passed the point of peak extraction by any reasonable definition, despite many many prognostications that we would have already.
Hubbert was right about the first U.S. peak, at least 20 years off on the global peak and completely missed the second U.S. peak due to massive-scale fracking. He did his best with what he had available at the time (1950s data and 1950s computing power), but he wasn’t an omniscient god.
Cloggie on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 11:28 am
Harm, exactly.
Nevertheless, Davy knows very well that I am not a troll and not really a cornucopian. He is just irritated by the comments of what he sees as those from an arrogant asshole and “self-important European”.
He might even have a little bit of a point.
Forgive me for being upbeat while seeing light at the end of the tunnel and smelling the possibility of a European renaissance, which will come at the cost of American prestige.
That’s why Davy is irritated and I upbeat.
Cloud9 on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 11:45 am
Thank goodness collapse has been postponed for another couple of decades. That means my grandkids will be old enough to use the equipment I have amassed.
Davy on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 12:23 pm
Clog, if I didn’t irritate you it would mean I don’t like you and you are not worth my time IOW a dumbass. I love my wife but I give her constant shit and she does the same. I must like Europeans because two of my wives have been Europeans and my only daughter is European.
Apneaman on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 12:27 pm
“European renaissance” oh yeah, the Muslim hordes, who will only increase, will enlighten the fuck out of you. Ba ha
Boat on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 12:57 pm
Clog,
“Forgive me for being upbeat while seeing light at the end of the tunnel and smelling the possibility of a European renaissance, which will come at the cost of American prestige.”
We hope Europe does well, the entire world for what it matters. Were to busy working to worry about it to much. Prestige? We can’t eat it so you can keep it. Why don’t you take care N Korea, Ukraine and the S China Sea. Go get U some of that prestige. In Texas we would call that “growing a pair”.
HARM on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 1:13 pm
@Davy,
After reading some of Cloggie’s statements about race and white nationalism on other threads, let me amend what I said: he’s not being a complete troll *here*. His statements on other threads, well…
Cloggie on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 1:37 pm
““European renaissance” oh yeah, the Muslim hordes, who will only increase, will enlighten the fuck out of you. Ba ha”
There would not have been a Dutch 17th Golden Century without an 80-years war against the Spanish.
The century before the Spanish fought a war and kicked the muslims out of Spain and the 16th century was a golden century for the Spanish.
I leave it to you as an exercise to figure out as to why these muslim hordes don’t drive me into despair at all and the more attacks these people commit, the more upbeat I become… because they make themselves impossible and they undermine the 1968 establishment, consisting of nihilists like you.
There is a time for peace and there is a time for war.
Cloggie on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 1:42 pm
“Clog, if I didn’t irritate you it would mean I don’t like you and you are not worth my time IOW a dumbass. I love my wife but I give her constant shit and she does the same. I must like Europeans because two of my wives have been Europeans and my only daughter is European.”
You know how I think and I know exactly how you think and if you want to make me mad, you have to work much, much harder.lol
Apneaman on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 2:44 pm
shit4, you say nihilists like it’s a bad thing. Actually I’m more of a biological determinist. If part of nihilism is a drive to destruction, then the humans race is nihilistic.
Looks like some of the youth from your country are already contributing to your fabled European rebirth.
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Beautiful girls from the Netherlands have sex in Dutch porn with eager amateurs, prostitutes, and pornstars sucking dick and fucking wildly at xHamster.
http://xhamster.com/channels/new-dutch-1.html
Kinky mofo’s
Cloggie on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 2:44 pm
Harm: “”After reading some of Cloggie’s statements about race and white nationalism on other threads, let me amend what I said: he’s not being a complete troll *here*
A white nationalist posting white nationalist messages is not a troll but a white nationalist.
I am btw not a hardcore “white nationalist”, but absolutely a proponent of fortress Europe and sending all these fighting age “Syrian refugees” back to where they came from after the end of the war. And that “asylum in Europe” circus for the endless masses of the third world should stop. I have no problem with people from former Dutch colonies like Moluccans, Surinames or other unproblematic people like Chinese, Poles, etc. as long as we Dutch remain firm in the majority, which should be an explicit government goal. Key positions in administration, army etc. should be ethnic Dutch and I want my goddamn eight o’clock news read by a Dutch person, preferably a woman.
http://sachadeboerfan.blogspot.nl/2010/01/sacha-de-boer-26-6-2006-nos-journaal.html
Cloggie on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 3:05 pm
“you say nihilists like it’s a bad thing.”
Nihilists per definition consider life worthless but refuse to draw the final logical conclusion and get the hell out of here from this planet. Instead they keep hanging around and sabotage the civilization they grew up in from within, with the sole intent to destroy it, since life is worthless anyway.
I have just as much respect for you as for your average cancerous growth. My contempt for you is visceral.
Survivalist on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 4:51 pm
World crude plus condensate peaked in November of 2015 and since then has been declining at an annualized rate of 4.2%
Peak oil is not in the near future. It is behind us. It’s also very obvious and easy to learn.
Apneaman on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 5:07 pm
shit4brains, what are you saying that not one nihilist who ever lived contributed to their society? Who the fuck gave you permission and the authority to decide which if any worldview is acceptable? Who the fuck do you think you are sitting in your little Dutch hovel making proclamations and telling everyone what’s what like you are the professor of everything? You’re nothing but a cowardly little worm – the spawn of a Nazi rape a couple generation ago. Hell, not even a rape, grandma probable fucked some syphilitic Nazi pig for a loaf of bread during the Dutch famine, then blew him for dessert. Would explain your ravings.
makati1 on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 5:29 pm
Cloggie, the world you want is not the world you are going to have. The genie is out of the bottle. Another million are coming from the ME soon.
Europe blew their chance to be free when they didn’t dissolve NATO after the death of the Soviet Union, like they promised. Then they left the banksters talk them into giving up their rights in something called the European Union. And then let the same un-elected crooks put their hands in their pockets when they decided to go to the EURO. Now they are allowing a semi-Nazi in a pantsuit run their lives.
Like America, you deserve the future ahead. You caused/allowed it to happen.
GregT on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 5:32 pm
“We hope Europe does well, the entire world for what it matters. Were to busy working to worry about it to much. Prestige? We can’t eat it so you can keep it.”
What’s with the ‘we’ Boat. You got a multiple personality disorder on top of all of your other issues?
Boat on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 5:35 pm
Survivalist on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 4:51 pm
World demand is growing at 1.4 mbpd. Since November that’s 800,000 lbs. per day.
11 August 2016
Crude oil prices eased to around $45 per barrel in August as a global supply overhang weighed and demand growth weakened, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for August informs subscribers. Brent crude had threatened to break below $40 per barrel at the end of July.
Meanwhile global oil supply rose by about 0.8 mb/d in July, as both OPEC and non-OPEC production increased. Output was 215 kb/d lower than a year earlier, as declines from non-OPEC more than offset an 840 kb/d annual gain in total OPEC liquids.
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2016/august/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-august.html
Don’t be suprised to see a new oil production peak in the next month or two.
HARM on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 5:40 pm
@Survivalist,
Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. It’s hard to definitively “call” Peak Oil based on less than 6 months of hard data (EIA data lags current date by at least 3 months). The current downturn could be temporary blip (due mainly to high cost fracking producers going TU by the ongoing oil glut) or it could be the start of the downslope of Hubbert’s peak. We simply won’t know until there’s more data.
Survivalist on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 6:02 pm
It is what it is. Unlike you I’m not making hall-ass guesses about the future. I’m giving you data. From reading your posts on here I’m guessing data and facts are not your main area of interest. Glibal crude plus condensate production has a history. It peaked in November of 2015. It has been since then declining at an annualized rate of 4.2%. Maybe it will continue to do so. Maybe it will not. Thanks for pointing that out. I do however know that already. If I ever need help comprehending the obvious I’ll ask you. As it stands the peak is behind us. Whether or not that remains the peak or a new peak is yet to be achieved is yet to be determined. Thanks for pointing out the obvious. You’re a champ.
Harquebus on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 8:10 pm
Peak oil is well and truly behind us. This fact is being hidden by the biggest debt bubble in history.
When the credit cards stop working, everything stops and the delayed effects of peak oil will then appear very rapidly. Tractors will lay idle on farms and the global population will quickly reduce to sustainable numbers. It won’t be pretty.
GregT on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 9:55 pm
“Crude oil prices eased to around $45 per barrel in August as a global supply overhang weighed and demand growth weakened, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for August informs subscribers.”
Strange how that back in 2002 (and for most of the entire century before that) , when there was no Oil Glut™, and demand growth was still humming along quite nicely (as well as the world’s economies), WTI was ~ $26/bbl.
Of course now that we have weakened growth in demand, and The Oil Glut™, WTI is @ $45/bbl, or almost twice as expensive. O.K.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=D
Boat on Thu, 18th Aug 2016 10:31 pm
greggiet,
If Libya and Nigeria went back to full production $26 would be well within reach.
GregT on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 12:53 am
If or when oil hits $26/bbl again Boat, you won’t have the foggiest notion as to what happened to your former standard of living.
brough on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 7:11 am
Most people believe, as far as oil is concerned ‘peak production’ and ‘peak demand’ will happen at some time in the future. As to what comes first is now open for debate. I am willing to listen to both sides of the argument and make my oil investments accordingly. At the moment I favour peak production. In the already developed industrial countries demand does look to have already peaked or is very flat. However, no matter what technological or social changes we make that lead to less petroleum usage, lower prices will stimulate demand in the developing nations (ie China and India). Of course there are people who believe that peak production and demand will occur simultaneously in apocalyptic econmic collapse. Which is not off the table, but life must go on and oil has to bought and consumed with someone turning the pump. Until the day we run out of oil or customers.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 7:33 am
Boat, solar hot water has significant financial and environmental benefits if you don’t live in Texas, the water comes out of the ground below 50 F in some areas of Maine, so it takes about 600 btus just to heat up one gallon of water to your average hot water tank setting, before standby and delivery loss. Every 5 gallons of heated water is therefore about a kwh. If you have high efficiency appliances, and gas stove and dryer, it is not unreasonable to say an electric water heater could approach 50% of a monthly bill for some.
Boat on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 8:06 am
PracticalMaina on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 7:33 am
At 50 percent solar would make a lot of sense. Would a large tank in the house warm it as well?
PracticalMaina on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 8:20 am
Yeah to some extent, you need a massive amount of storage if you want to seriously supplement heat at this latitude or a super insulated house, because December and January have such low output, some places due district heating where they will pump heated water down into geothermal wells in the summer. 50% would most likely only be in you had all led lights, didn’t run ac, decently efficient fridge ect. But a large family without low flow shower head can use a shitload of hot water. Another thing is a lot of individuals around hear will have a boiler to heat there water, so in the summer they are heating up hundreds of pounds of steel for no real benefit.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 8:49 am
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eroding-alaska-island-village-votes-move-mainland-130219033.html
Sad state of the world, don’t worry, its a myth and the next ice age is right around the corner 😉
rockman on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 12:22 pm
Regarding wind and solar: “The payoff time is still to long, the hassle to tedious and upfront costs to big for the masses. Large cities are not going to allow windmills.” Obviously not true gor Texas tied as the 4th largest wind power generating “country” in the world. And not allowed near large cities? One of our largest wind farms sits at the edge of one of our largest metropolin areas…. Corpus Christi.
That tone reminds me of a line I just saw on a movie poster: “The list of the impossible is endless”. LOL.
Cloggie on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 2:12 pm
“Large cities are not going to allow windmills”
That problem was solved a century ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid
Electricity can be transported over many hundred miles.
PeterEV on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 7:16 pm
Everyone seems to focus on wind and PV. I don’t see a lot of discussion about solar thermal heating for winter time especially in the SE into the Great Plains to the rest of the west except around the Pacific Northwest.
What alternatives do we have? If everyone heated with wood, the forests would be gone in just a few years. To me, solar thermal will be an increasing part of the mix.
Read where they found the crystaline structure that produces 31% efficiencies in Perovskite solar cells. They have a way to go but they are made using temps in the 150 degree C range instead of 2400 degree range.
May we live in interesting times…
Davy on Fri, 19th Aug 2016 8:18 pm
You are missing one point Peter. How many homes have wood stoves? You are also missing the point of how all those trees are going to be cut and moved. How many people have axes and cross cut saws? If we can’t heat our homes with fossil fuels how are we going to power chainsaws? I doubt all the forest will be cut down before a die off. There is little hope for solar thermal also. Where is the money coming from? Nope, we are screwed Peter. We are riding this one off the cliff…together.
David Cohen on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 10:36 am
All commuters in the USA and hopefully the world who drive less than 100 miles per day, must use an EV. Otherwise, we will be in the worst chaotic disaster the world has ever seen.
Davy on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 11:40 am
David, let’s enhance your warning to “all commuters that can should not drive period. If you must drive then drive as little as possible. Drive in carpools and or take mass transit. If you can drive an EV that has a grid tied solar system.
Plantagenet on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 11:51 am
Cloggie is living in a fantasy. He doesn’t understand that the only demographic group in Europe whose population is increasing are Moslems.
Demographics is destiny—-in 50 years Germany France England etc will be majority Muslim countries.
Cheers!
Plantagenet on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 11:59 am
@David Cohen
Most people can’t afford to switch to an EV so they won’t do it voluntarily
Face facts—-unless a climate treaty is signed mandating global reductions in CO2 emissions it ain’t gonna happen. And Obama vetoed mandatory emissions cuts and switched the UN to toothless voluntary pledges instead so there is now no chance to reduce CO2 emissions and slow AGW
It’s game over now. Move to a colder climate
Cheers
Cloggie on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 12:24 pm
“Everyone seems to focus on wind and PV. I don’t see a lot of discussion about solar thermal heating for winter time especially in the SE into the Great Plains to the rest of the west except around the Pacific Northwest”
Indeed. I regularly visit yearly Intersolar in Munich:
https://www.intersolar.de/en/home.html
I can’t understand why thermal solar has been completely pushed to the background.
I have worked on seasonal storage of solar heat in the ground: catching abundunt solar energy during the summer with collectors and storing it in the ground in order to retrieve it in the winter. This only works for large storage size, with hundreds of houses or more involved to minimize thermal leakage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_thermal_energy_storage
But these days everybody concentrates on PV and wind indeed.
ghung on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 1:18 pm
Clog; “But these days everybody concentrates on PV and wind indeed.”
Not everybody. My from-the-ground-up plan began with a well-designed passive solar home; south-facing glass, overhangs calculated for shade in summer, plenty of insolation in winter. All windows open for passive cooling. In the open living area, awning windows 4 meters off the floor also open in summer to vent warm summer air, and provide plenty of light. No BAU or grid required for this house to heat and cool itself most of the year. The house is earth-bermed to the north and northeast; “of the hill rather than on the hill”, as Frank Lloyd Wright liked to say. Seasonal plantings further enhance cooling (shade) and air quality.
Add to that active PV (wind is a poor option at our location; mainly gentle breezes), and solar hot water (60 evacuated tube array feeding a 1600 liter storage tank), and an efficient wood heater (which also heats the same water tank along with the living area), and plenty of thermal mass, ongoing inputs are very small; about 80 gallons of propane per year for cooking and drying clothes, and a bit of fuel for cutting/splitting wood.
A zoned hydronic floor lets us move heat around where we need it in winter; efficient little pumps which run off of the PV system. We do have a small generator and tankless propane water heater for backup, but neither gets used much. Water is solar-pumped from a spring to a tank buried on the ridge-top; gravity flow from there to the house. About 9000 liters potable water storage. Maintenance on all of this is minimal, though keeping the house comfortable requires a little more active participation than installing a ‘smart’ thermostat. Opening/closing windows, or turning a fan on/off, isn’t such a big deal.
Davy on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 1:36 pm
That is a home worth bragging about!
ghung on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 1:50 pm
Not so much bragging, Davy. More of a commentary on how poorly-conceived most contemporary homes are these days. Funny thing is, we did it for less than the average cost of conventional homes in the area. Difference is, we weren’t trying to impress anyone, or worried about resale value.
Davy on Sat, 20th Aug 2016 3:02 pm
Poor choice of words but you get the drift. I get excited about what you described of your place. I remember seeing some pics you put out on drop box a few years back When SHTF people will be amazed at how poorly conceived houses without functioning windows are or houses that can’t heat with wood will be.