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Page added on July 22, 2014
As Russia’s Isolation Grows, Oil Companies Caught in Middle
The confrontation between Russia and the West took a turn for the worse with the downing of a Malaysian airliner on July 17, and that could spell trouble for several major oil companies operating in Russia.
Just one day earlier, U.S. President Barack Obama slapped sanctions on Russia over its ongoing role in the destabilization of Ukraine. The sanctions prohibited American banks from issuing loans with a maturity of over 90 days to four key Russian companies – Rosneft, Novatek, Gazprombank, and VEB.
“Because Russia has failed to meet the basic standards of international conduct, we are acting today to open Russia’s financial services and energy sectors to sanctions,” U.S. Treasury Official David S. Cohen said in a press release describing the agency’s actions.
The sanctions tightened the economic noose on the Russian economy by targeting companies in Russia’s energy sector. Up until now, western sanctions largely targeted individuals in the Russian elite, freezing their assets or issuing bans on American companies from doing business with them. But with oil and gas accounting for over 50 percent of revenues for the Russian state, if Obama wanted sanctions to have any bite, he had to escalate the campaign by going after Russia’s energy sector.
Until the July 16 announcement, the major western oil companies operating in Russia shrugged off their effects. Companies like BP, ExxonMobil, and Royal Dutch Shell defied White House pressure to avoid doing business with Russia.
They made a big bet on the likelihood that their billion-dollar projects would not be affected by the deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West.
But the markets took the latest round of sanctions much more seriously than their previous iterations. Rosneft saw its share price decline by 6.2 percent the day of the announcement, and Novatek was off 11.5 percent.
And western companies were not safe either. BP lost $4.4 billion in its market value on July 17. BP owns a 19.8 percent share of Rosneft, Russia’s state-owned oil company that was singled out by Obama’s sanctions. Nearly one-third of BP’s global oil production – or 1 million barrels per day – comes from its investment in Rosneft.
ExxonMobil also has massive business plans with Rosneft. The two companies are drilling a $300 million well in Siberia, and next month they plan on drilling a$700 million well in the Russian Arctic, the country’s most expensive in history. ExxonMobil and Rosneft have also agreed to jointly develop an LNG export terminal on Russia’s Pacific coast. The Houston-based ExxonMobil has thus far maintained that the projects will be unaffected by sanctions, but that has been thrown into doubt after the U.S. Treasury Department’s latest move.
On July 18, Zacks.com, a market research firm, warned investors
Russian President Vladimir Putin scoffed at the sanctions, saying that they will merely hurt American energy companies. “This means that U.S. companies willing to work in Russia will lose their competitiveness next to other global energy companies,” Putin said. “So, do they not want it to work here? They are causing damage to their major energy companies.”
With financing likely to be increasingly hard to come by for Russia’s major oil and gas companies, several of them are looking east for access to lending. AsThe New York Times notes, Russian energy companies are becoming more dependent on Chinese finance to pay for their capital-intensive projects. Partly, this is due to China looking for more Russian energy, but it is also because Russia sees the door slowly closing on access to western banks.
The rift between Russia and the West is bound to worsen after in the aftermath of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 being shot down by a surface-to-air missile in pro-Russian rebel territory. And the cumulative effect of recent sanctions could be minor compared to what may be coming. The U.S. could issue far-reaching sanctions, and the incident could help European Union leaders overcome their hesitation over inflicting damage on the Russian economy.
The international community has called for a full investigation, but right now, all roads appear to be leading to Moscow. Perhaps fearing the fallout from the incident, Putin called for a cease fire in Ukraine.
Swept up in the international crisis are the major oil companies – BP and ExxonMobil – who fear their bottom line taking a big hit from Russia’s growing isolation.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/
By Nicholas Cunningham of Oilprice.com
74 Comments on "As Russia’s Isolation Grows, Oil Companies Caught in Middle"
M1 on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 11:10 am
Avoid the PUTIN Problem, switch your fleet to EV’s and hybrids, STAY in Business during a Putin Blockade.
noobtube on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 11:31 am
It looks like the American scumbags are inventing someone new to hate.
Hussein
Ahmadinejad
Chavez
Mugabe
Qadaffi
Assad
The concept of an American is based on who do you hate (it started with the Native tribes and Africans).
And, the American idiot falls for it every time.
It is amazing how utterly predictable and reliable the stupidity is in the United States.
Plantagenet on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 11:53 am
Obama’s dumb sanctions will hurt the world’s economy without deterring Putin from his dumb scheme to send weapons, special forces soldiers and anti-aircraft missiles into eastern Ukraine to destabilize Ukraine.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 11:59 am
noob — Please go back to your decadent, degenerate, depraved, sinful, unprincipled and immoral two-handed monkey pounding and leave the grown-up discussion to guys who actually know what they’re talking about. You doing yourself is all you’re good at noob, and it is all a filthy perverted degenerate like you will ever be good at. You’ve got virgins waiting for you in the afterlife — they’re all greasy pigs waiting to satisfy your lust. GFY, noob.
Arthur on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 12:22 pm
The western leftist globalist warmongering media are the source of all evil. Here German der Spiegel deploring the pro-Russia orientation of the German businesselite.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/mh17-malaysian-airlines-und-der-konflikt-mit-russland-a-982061.html
Western politics is playing a risky game with their commie policies of mass immigration and war mongering. Expect western politicians to end up exactly where their eastern European collegues ended up in 1989 after the coming Orlov-collapse: in South-America at best.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 12:25 pm
NWR quote from a previous post:
“This whole end of the oil age and economic collapse thing is going to get really, really nasty. Isn’t it?”
Not only is it going to get really, really nasty. It already has on many fronts, especially in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZiJRnaom_E
Russia is next………..
louis wu on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 12:34 pm
It is very likely that any support from the EU, however weak, will end once it starts getting cold.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 12:49 pm
Oh, and once Russia is neutered, my bet is that Iran will be next.
Arthur on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:15 pm
OMG, Malaysian airways will send the black boxes to… Britain. Very bad news.
noobtube on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:17 pm
The United States can’t win in Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya or Somalia or Vietnam.
But, it is going to neuter Russia or Iran?
Americans are so out-of-touch with reality, they still think the world revolves around them.
And these maniacs have access to nuclear weapons. Not a good combination.
eugene on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:33 pm
“Russia” has failed the basic standards of international conduct? Would be amusing if not so sickening.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:33 pm
I expect continued and increasing sanctions against Russia, but I don’t expect them to be effective in achieving much and I don’t think they are expected to be effective by US officials at this time. They are just part of the package. The main effect will be to weaken Russia’s economy temporarily, but sanctions will not break Russia or Putin.
The most clear example of how ineffective sanctions can be is the Cuban embargo in place since before I was born over half a century ago.
Economic sanctions are a form of collective punishment mostly hurting the weak and poor. The powerful still smoke their cigars and have the life in Cuba today in spite of the embargo.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:40 pm
I should have said: in place for over half a century, since before I was born. I am only 45.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:43 pm
Sorry noob,
Not an American, but of course you have already been told that.
I chose the word neutered for a reason.
Also, this has nothing to do with your average American, or the United States per se. This is about central bankers, multinational corporations, and the 1/10th of one percent who are controlling much of the world. Many who have ties to the Middle East and Europe, as has been the case for the better part of a century. Get your facts straight.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:46 pm
Juan,
The questions that should be asked are:
What will sanctions actually accomplish?
Who benefits?
Davy on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:49 pm
Juan, in today’s hyper complex interconnect global system what hurts Russia hurts the west. There is little wiggle room to avoid a financial contraction. Both sides are discounting this. If we do not end up in global destructive conflict of some kind this may be the optimum forced de-growth mechanism. A simmering trade war will bring BAU to its feet. Russia is too important to the global energy markets and the Brics cannot decouple from the west. BAU’s end is near.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:53 pm
Noob, By being so offensive, direspectful, and aggressive, you automatically lose the argument. I understand the point you were trying to make, but I refuse to address it because of the way you expressed it.
This is a sad thing, because there was a potential discussion there that could have benefitted us all.
You could bring something to the conversation and open some minds to new ideas if you approached this in a different way. Your loss, too!
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 1:53 pm
Arthur said:
OMG, Malaysian airways will send the black boxes to… Britain. Very bad news.
Are you surprised Arthur? I’m not. I’ll say it again, everything appears to still be going as planned. I really don’t think that the internet will make much of a difference. People are far too brainwashed to think for themselves anymore.
Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Asia. Checkmate.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:01 pm
Greg, I’m afraid your reason for choosing neutered is lost on me, maybe lost in translation. Did you mean it as neutralized and a joke? You know neuter, neutralize. As far as the sanctions go I don’t know what they accomplish or who benefits. Those are excellent questions and stuff to ponder on.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:09 pm
Davy, I have been extremely worried about what is going on in Ukraine since February. This is a new level of conflict in, IMO. Your whole comment is right on target. This is another step in the end of BAU, this conflict will not be allowed to end and will be used as an excuse for many awful things on all sides. There are no winners possible, only relative degrees of loss and this is a potential way to manage degrowth. I would not be surprised if Russia remains the USA’s enemy for decades.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:12 pm
Juan,
Not defeated, but brought down a notch, having power stripped away.
IMHO, this is an economic game that is being played by the power brokers behind the scenes. This isn’t about nations, it is about control over nation’s economies. It is about control over currencies. Of course a few thousand dead here, a few more thousand dead there, collateral damage so to speak, is also OK, but the end-game is global domination. The same game that has been patiently planned for over a hundred years.
Arthur understands exactly what I am referring to.
Arthur on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:14 pm
200 minutes MH17 podcast by US based Dutch talkshowhost Adam Curry:
https://www.noagendaplayer.com/listen/636/5-04
Click on MH17 Crash podcast.
Curry is a 9/11-truther and and one of the very few who has dared to address the gigantic zionist influence in the US. He sums up all the soundbytes over the past few days and comments them with his US guests.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:18 pm
JuanP — I think it is fairly obvious that noobtube has no interest in discussion. His only purpose on this forum is to incite and vent his own anger, frustration and hatred. He’s like the screaming lunatic you see in a straight jacket inside a padded cell, spitting venom and insanity at all passersby, incapable of rationale dialogue, just completely whacked out and fully bonkers in every possible way.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:27 pm
Greg, I don’t disagree with that, but I don’t see a conspiracy behind it, just human nature.
I see it as forcing countries to become part of the system, whether they like it or not, to sustain necessary growth and eliminating the opposition one by one. The plans have been there for decades, I have read some of them online.
The USA only has a handful of potential enemies left in the world, off the top of my head these are the countries that actively resist US influence in the world today: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, and there may be a few insignificant others. They are all targets.
Arthur on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:42 pm
For Putin it is important to gain time until the winter. If Ukr forces would succeed in the east, the next target will be the Crimea, as already announced. That is when Russia can no longer avoid direct armed conflict. NATO will probably support Ukraine and the second Crimean war will be a fact.. The first one was lost by Russia. After Russians, French, Turks and British had beaten the shit out of each other, they had no resources left to prevent German unification shortly afterwards. Similarly, with Moscow, Paris, London and NYC/Washington vapourized, the planet will belong to the Chinese.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 2:47 pm
Juan,
The thing is, everyone is looking at nations, this has absolutely nothing to do with national interests. It isn’t about Russia, it isn’t about the USA, and it isn’t about any country or political ideology. Everyone is focused on the dog, but the tail is what is wagging the dog. The conspiracy has been very well documented, but it is so insidious in it’s nature, that most people refuse to believe that it is true, or even a possibility.
I’ll leave you with one very old quote:
“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.” Mayer Amschel Rothschild 1790
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 3:06 pm
Greg, I understand the USA and most countries are manipulated by TPTB. When I say the USA has these enemies, I also imply the powers behind the throne have these enemies, I see no distinction. The little people like me have no dog in this fight. Wars have always been about resources in one way or another. The system I refer to in my comment is the globalized capitalist economic system, similar to what you refer to as the NWO, I believe, an expression I dislike because it is not well defined at all and means very different things to different people.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 3:12 pm
Greg, We also agree that this is not being done for our good, it is being done to fulfill the goals of a few at a cost to be paid by the many. And I also agree that this is in no country’s national interest. As I always say, no country wins here.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 3:13 pm
Juan,
Then we are on the same page.
Food for thought. Have you seen this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbp6umQT58A
Arthur on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 4:20 pm
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/mh17/22884204/__Zwarte_dozen_naar_team__.html
The black boxes do go to Britain, but the Netherlands will lead an international team that will do the examination. Not as bad as feared.
Makati1 on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 9:24 pm
Until the American people grow a backbone and set up a guillotine, or 10, on the Capital Mall in DC, nothing will get better, only worse. It is just a matter of where you want to ride out the coming nuclear storm.
Not too long ago, I read an article
about Russia nuking the US, in a first strike event, because it was pushed to do so by the uS. I thought it was pretty unlikely … then. Now, I am not so sure. Russia is not the US. The Russian People will fight if provoked as Hitler did in WW2. Had the Russians not won their war with Hitler, we might all be speaking German today. The West certainly wasn’t doing very well.
I too think that the real powers are still pushing for a one world government where a few super wealthy control everything. But, they are running out of time and literally running out of energy. The speed has been shifted into 5th gear, and full speed ahead.
They do not care if you live or die. In fact, if they truly believe they can survive a nuclear war, they will cause one. It would solve the population (eater) problem in a few years instead of decades. We are run by psychopaths now, not rational humans.
GregT on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 9:55 pm
Makati,
It isn’t just the American establishment anymore, our government in Canada is now complicit as well. Harper is no better than the American puppets. Maybe even worse.
Davy on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 10:40 pm
Mak, is having more NUK visions. I wonder Mak why the fixation on NUK’s especially the use of them on the US. Your a sick puppy Mak, I presume you don’t give a shit about your family in the US or you wouldn’t be talking that way.
MKohnen on Tue, 22nd Jul 2014 11:26 pm
GregT,
As far as Harper goes, I’m with ya there, bro.
As far as I’m concerned, the US is doing everything it can to stir up trouble with Russia. Do they get the EU to start spending more on NATO so they can sell more death hardware? Just as with Iraq, I don’t think they have a fully thought out plan, only the Chinese and Russians do. And their plan? Buy as much time as possible in anticipation of peak-oil. On the downslope, the global military power starts to balance out, and the risk of attack goes down significantly. In my estimation, America is the biggest loser in the waiting game, and they know it.
Conspiracy on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 2:37 am
Don’t start picking on Mak again… He is older than most of us, born just after WW2, maybe he has just seen more of this world, besides growing up fully in the N-bomb fear of the cold war. I’m not a conspiracy theory believer (despite the nick), but if I were ruling the world, nukes would probably be an option worth thinking of for solving the world’s ills (like getting a 99% trim in population, eliminating GHG emissions and so on). It should do the job quickly and humanely (hey, that’s what they call it when they slaughter animals giving them a quick death!). The worst of radiation should go away in few years (yes, it’s there for thousands of years, but it’s an exponential function in reverse, the vast majority of it goes away in the first half lives). Also an exponential decrease as you go further away from center, meaning that even with a lot of nukes, there should be quite a few places where you don’t even need a shelter to survive (far away islands come to mind… lucky you, Mak). Wildlife adapts pretty well to increased radiation (ok, 5-10% of the offspring have mutations that make them unable to survive, unpalatable for humans but hardly an issue for wildlife), see the “wolves of Cernobyl” documentary for example, apparently the explosion and subsequent abandonment of the area by humans did let nature come back. At the very least an idea worth pondering on and I’m sure that if there’s such a thing as some group in power, it crossed their minds too…
Makati1 on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 2:57 am
GregT, Canada is being integrated into the US as is Mexico. If they have time, it will be part of the North American Union as planned long ago. The many agreements between governments is building the foundations as we type, but it is not in the news.
You can see it if you track the security/trade negotiations in the web articles that pop up occasionally. That is why no hard line on Mexican ‘illegal’ immigration. And the push to get access to the tar sands among other clues. The new security agreements and other ties that bind in recent years. When the USD goes, are they ready with the Amero? We shall see.
If you try to watch all of the hot spots in the world today, you could get whiplash. I have a world map with red circles around the hottest spots, but it is soon going to be easier to circle the safe spots and the Us is not one of them.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 5:36 am
MK, I disagree with you assertion that the US loses in your PO waiting game. I see no advantage for China especially. If you read about the intricacies of China they require significant growth to maintain their growing population. Wealth inequality is already extreme and worsening. Their urban areas have become huge and many. Their food, water, and ecology are redline. China’s all important finance and political control is in a death spiral of unwind. If you read about China’s economy they have been reporting a significant percentage of growth just by not allowing bad debt to be realized. This has the other unfortunate outcome of allowing massive poor investment across the board form ghost cities, highways to nowhere, to massive over capacity in large industry (shipbuilding). This is all investments made without a return. Or economic poor EROI (using PO term). What good is developing if it does not generate productivity? China is on the knife edge of a descent that will be nasty and ugly and we may see the breakup of China into various parts but not without nasty social unrest. The rest of Asia is just piglet’s sucking on the sows tits so places like the Philippians with among the highest growth rate and population growth rate in the world will crash and burn and face similar issues with not enough resources to support a population in overshoot. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are more tit suckers with China.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 5:37 am
MK, Russia is only a country of 140 MIL with a population in decline. Russia has an undiversified economy heavily reliant on energy of which Russia just went past peak on oil. Russia’s infrastructure is in a poor state except around Moscow but venture out into the country side and there has been very little investment. Russia’s heavy industry is out dated and still much like it was in the days of the USSR but now dated and uneconomic compared to other areas in the world that are new and more efficient. We now see a leader who is engaging Russia in the world but in the wrong way. I say the wrong way in the economic sense. You can’t spread out militarily and geopolitically without expending funds. One of Russia’s main western boarder has a failed state on its hands and will probably have to pay for that in some way shape or form as it is already. Crimea has yet to be absorbed and paid for. There is still the simmering Muslim issues in the south. It has been proven in many cases that resource strong countries turned out to be cursed. Countries with Mafia style politics and business are unproductive. Currently Russia is in economic decline which can be seen with capital flight, lack of investment, and stock market declining dangerously. Just look at the cost of insuring Russian debt which is at a high for emerging market countries. Puttin’s Bric push will stall with all the problems all the Bric countries are in.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 5:40 am
MK, we know the US issues and by some extension Canada’s because this site is an anti-American site along with PO issues. North America is better positioned than any other continent to weather this coming storm because of Food, water, and low population density relative to other continental areas. The US is already in decline and in deindustrialization. This is a good thing because the sooner a country de-growths the better in today’s new paradigm of descent. The excesses of the US in economics and military will diminish. The dollar is losing influence. The cost of the military are forcing the US to rethink strategic engagements. Socially the middle class is dying and paradoxically this is a good thing because the vast majority of Americans are experiencing decline which they should because the American lifestyle needs to reset several notches lower to be PO prepared. A reset it can afford because of much low hanging fruit of a wasteful lifestyle. It is time for the US to withdraw from globalism and a slow withdrawal is the best case. This is what is happening. We are definitely leapfrogging Asia which is barreling along with economic growth (wrong kind) and population overshoot. I have said this before that globalism as we know today is not good for the vast majority of Americans it has benefitted a few at the expense of the many.
Dredd on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 5:59 am
Their newly acquired oil field in the Black Sea will change things a little bit.
But it will not change things for the world because the quantity of that field was already in the data.
A trial in the UN is unlikely to change the equation.
GregT on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:06 am
Davy,
A large percentage of Russians still live rural, in small local communities, on farms. Unlike us here in North America. We have much farther to fall. The vast majority of people that I know would have absolutely no idea how to take care of themselves in an economic depression. Not anti American Davy, pro truth. Sadly.
GregT on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:13 am
This morning’s newspaper headline:
Russian’s Fed Conspiracy Theories on Ukraine Crash
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russians-fed-conspiracy-theories-ukraine-crash-24658371
Of course what we are being fed are all conspiracy truths……..
Davy on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:22 am
Fair enough Greg but explain the severe social decline that is among the worst among developed countries. Not anti Russian here just trying to balance a increasingly unbalanced anti American forum. This is an example of what we see in the world and why the blame game will win. The blame game ensures no top down solutions and when we become local we will see the same old historical social evils and ills.
Arthur on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 9:03 am
Makati says: “Had the Russians not won their war with Hitler, we might all be speaking German today. ”
In Europe perhaps, as a second language. Now we all speak English as a second language, big deal.
But I think you will live the day to completely rethink everything connected to WW2. In short: there is in essence no difference between the treatment of Germany (and Japan) in WW2 and the treatment of Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Iran and Russia. They are systematically set up for war and destruction.
When Germany did attack Russia, it was an act of desperation, a preemptive strike, as Russia was in state of full mobilisation to prepare for the final assault against Europe. As a single example of proof of that see post 41 on this Dutch libertarian forum:
http://www.vrijspreker.nl/wp/2013/11/de-tweede-wereldoorlog-in-een-ander-perspectief/comment-page-2/#comments
…where my fellow countrymen showed remarkable openness towards a new interpretation of WW2. No acquisations of ‘neo-nazism’, whatever that may mean, other than a smearword. That post contains in German a letter between Supreme commander Keitel and FM Ribbentrop. Keitel expresses his great concern about the buildup of Soviet troops at the border. There is not a single refetence to a long planned plan of attack, but instead: we must act now. That was some six weeks before the beginning of Barbarossa. At the same time Rudolf Hess made a desperate attempt to persuade London for peace, but Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt had already decided upon the destruction of Germany by early 1939. All they needed to do was provoke the Germans to intervene in Poland, where the Poles, emboldened by empty promisses of the three western allies, had started to ethnically cleanse the Germans ftom Poland. Today, exactly the same game is played in eastern Ukraine. Useful idiot is now Ukraine instead of Poland. Germany is now Russia.
Prince Charles recently called Putin the new Hitler, and the prince was entirely correct. Everybody who dares to oppose Anglosphere/Ziosphere is a Hitler.
But the picture is now entirely different. Anglosphere can no longer outsource the brunt of of the heavy lifting to the USSR. Meanwhile China is overtaking the US as the largest economy on earth. And Europe is reluctant, tries to appease the US with half-hearted sanctions. I can see absolutely no way for Washington to win this fight.
Davy on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 9:36 am
Art you are reaching very far on these:
“In short: there is in essence no difference between the treatment of Germany (and Japan) in WW2 and the treatment of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and Russia. They are systematically set up for war and destruction.”
Art “exactly” is a bold word in English
“Today, exactly the same game is played in eastern Ukraine. Useful idiot is now Ukraine instead of Poland. Germany is now Russia.”
Meanwhile China is overtaking the US as the largest economy on earth. And Europe is reluctant, tries to appease the US with half-hearted sanctions. I can see absolutely no way for Washington to win this fight.
Art, you can’t compare the two economies as if they are in a 100 yard dash. They are two very different economies and societies IMA China has 1BIL people to the US 300MIL. This is a very different comparison. Also what is the difference if China pulls ahead in some arbitrary definition or quantification? How far ahead is China going to go? When they are twice the size of the US then throw out that idea and I will agree with you. China is at the limits of growth facing diminishing returns with a population in severe overshoot to carrying capacity. China has an economy in a debt spiral from very poor central planning decisions that now will come back to haunt them along with the rest of Asia. China is an ecological train wreck that will take down the rest of the world with it.
JuanP on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 9:56 am
Art, Very interesting comparison. I have read and heard so many different versions of history that I now realize most of them are mostly false, distorted, and contradictory.
All these different perspectives are what keep me here. I even learn a lot from those posters I mostly disagree with. Not talking about you.
I try to be honest and impartial and never take sides, that means I don’t make friends easily, because I don’t lie to make people happy and most people can’t take the truth. I am less emotional than most people. A loner since preK.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 10:01 am
Is it Russia’s isolation that is growing, or is it America’s isolation?
Not that I believe anything I read on this website — but here is an article/interview that tends to suggest that Europe (as a whole) and Germany specifically is planning to distance itself from America and scoot a little closer to Russia, including joining the BRICS (and “dropping” the dollar).
An article I read on ZH yesterday, our good friend an ally Turkey is reported to be giving Obama the cold shoulder and planning to join the BRICS. I have no idea if the article is based on fact or fiction because it is on ZH — but it is another “signal” that Europe as a whole is moving away from dependence on American military might and economic domination, and preparing to settle down for the long haul with their continental neighbors.
usawatchdog dot com/germany-secretly-planning-on-joining-brics-jim-willie/
JuanP on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 10:06 am
Davy, I agree completely with your statement that China’s future will most likely be atrocious.
It is brutally overpopulated and one of the most worn out and exhausted places on Earth.
We have to remember that China is one of the world’s oldest civilizations, thousands of years old, and civilization has high ecological costs.
China also was the largest economy in the world for 19 of the last 20 centuries, until the British displaced around 1900, with all the environmental damage and resource depletion that implies, too.
China has only one way to go and it is down.
Nony on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 10:11 am
I wonder why the majors get involved. Lot of danger of stealth nationalizations. Yergin’s book describes these going on for last couple decades and in particular in Russia. Is the deal so rich as to take that risk?
JuanP on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 10:18 am
NWR, We are all becoming more isolated, I believe. I know I am. 😉
I have read that Erdogan in Turkey is considering applying to become not a member, but to create an economic association with the EAEU, the new, Russian dominated, Eurasian Economic Union.
I think that President Erdogan wants to hold on to power in a way that would not be acceptable to Western Europe, and Turkey’s EU ambitions will have to wait until he is gone, and that could be longer than the EU will last as it is. Erdogan and the EU are going separate ways for a while.