Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
Page added on October 19, 2016
A number of emerging technologies, policy initiatives such as the COP21 agreement in Paris last year, the continued increase in demand in China and India, a rise in growth of renewable energies, as well as the growth in unconventional oil and gas, have solidified the level and extent of their impact on the energy sector and the environment.
We have seen fundamental structural changes in the energy sector, often referred to as energy transitions, globally.
The motivation, objectives and priorities for tackling these emerging energy transitions differ within different countries and regions, but can mainly be related to the Energy Trilemma of energy security, sustainability and affordability.
With long investment and substantial lead times, the energy industry has traditionally been a long-term market, and therefore change could take a fairly long time-especially on a global scale.
Therefore, when the changes in global primary energy consumption numbers over the past 15 years are compared, they are quite remarkable.
During this time, we have also experienced new developments such as low oil and gas prices.
The peak oil debate belongs to the past. The reality is that oil demand will peak before 2030. Energy intensity reductions are set to increase at a faster rate than the demand increase from a growing global middle class.
The electrification of energy use is a conspicuous trend. Naturally this therefore shifts the discussion from peak oil to peak demand. The diversification of technologies and resources within the energy sector creates many opportunities but the complexity associated with such diversity can also lead to increased challenges.
Solar and wind power will continue their rapid growth. The integration of these intermittent energy carriers into the supply system can be seen as just one of these structural challenges.
With the increased existing level of volatility, relying on solid facts and data as the basis for strategic decision-making by relevant stakeholders-such as governments, international organisations and companies-is becoming even more important than in the past.
Many principal drivers have shaped global energy supply and usage in recent years including:
The goals of the Paris treaty on climate change are unachievable without a global commitment to CCUS.
As energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is indispensable to build and provide an energy system which covers the needs of economies and preserves the environment.
The Global Transition is unstoppable, and requires a worldwide response and careful management, building on the principles of the Energy Trilemma.
A successful energy transformation calls for global political and economic collaboration at an unprecedented scale.
The world is projected to move towards a low carbon energy future, where CCUS-enabled fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency all play a key role in the system.
A one-sided focus on selective priorities creates additional tension, increased system costs, and undermines the stability needed to encourage further required investment.