“Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables,” reads the hyperbolic headline from Tom Randall, writing for Bloomberg Business. “This is the beginning of the end,” the subhead piles on. This report of the death of fossil fuel-powered electricity generation may be exaggerated. But looking closely at Randall’s article, the triumph of advanced energy seems even more of a sure thing.
The source of Randall’s hyperventilation (or the headline writer’s) is Bloomberg New Energy Finance founder Michael Liebreich’s keynote address at the annual BNEF New Energy Summit. There, Liebreich announced that, in new generating capacity installed globally in 2013, “clean” energy – including nuclear power, hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and waste – edged out oil, coal, and natural gas, 143 GW to 141 GW. In BNEF’s forecast, the gap grows wider this year and beyond: 164 GW “clean” to 110 GW fossil in 2015; 279 GW “clean” to 64 GW fossil in 2030. (Download the full presentation here.)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
“The electricity system is shifting to clean,” Liebreich declared. “Despite the change in oil and gas prices there is going to be a substantial buildout of renewable energy that is likely to be an order of magnitude larger than the buildout of coal and gas.”
In fact, the fossil fuel capacity projected to decline sharply over the coming years is mainly coal and oil; natural gas-fired capacity stays relatively steady in the BNEF projection, at roughly 50 GW per year through 2030. (See graph’s from Liebreich’s presentation.) AEE considers natural gas turbines “advanced energy,” as the cleanest and most efficient technology for fossil fuel power generation, as well as all of the sources Liebreich considers “clean.”
But the game changer, Liebreich rightly argues (and Randall correctly reports) is the steadily growing role of wind and solar in the new power mix, today and going forward. Randall also cites a scenario developed by the International Energy Agency under which solar, now accounting for less than 1 percent of electricity generation, could be the single largest power source worldwide by 2050.
The surge in these renewable energy sources is the result of a trend many years in the making. The cost of manufacturing and installing advanced energy technology has been dropping consistently. Solar and wind reaching cost parity with fossil fuels was one of the top 10 advanced energy news stories of 2014. Back then we wrote, “utilities and large energy users in the private sector started to choose advanced energy simply because it was cheaper.”
In October 2013, Xcel Energy submitted plans to the Colorado Public Utility Commission to buy electricity generated solar and wind—simply because it was the cheapest option available. A year later, in October 2014, a Deutsche Bank report concluded solar electricity is on track to be as cheap or cheaper than “average electricity-bill prices in 47 U.S. states.” And overall in 2014, 99 percent of new U.S. electricity capacity was from advanced energy: 53 percent from wind and solar, 43 percent from natural gas.
Just this week, NPR featured a story from the Planet Money team on how solar has gotten “so cheap so fast.” The conclusion? Cheaper panels, faster installation, and innovative financing. The story featured a SolarCity residential installation that took just four hours, compared to several days a few years ago. At the end of the day, the customer expects to save between $70 and $80 a month on his electrical bill.
Fossil fuels may or may not be dying. But the future of electricity generation belongs to advanced energy.
Plantagenet on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 2:26 pm
This is wonderful news. Advanced energy electrical power generation means no CO2 emissions and less global warming.
And the technology just keeps getting better and better and cheaper and cheaper!
paulo1 on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 2:33 pm
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
Perk Earl on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 3:17 pm
If those two in the photo attaching the solar panel would stop socializing and pay attention to what they are doing, they would realize the panel is not centered on the supports.
penury on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 3:31 pm
Like all predictions, if it is longer than two weeks, who cares?
HARM on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 4:07 pm
Renewable energy overtaking FFs is good news indeed, but does (today’s) nuclear really = “clean energy”?
sunweb on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 4:27 pm
My position has been that the underwriting by the global industrial infrastructure is a necessary consideration. All the things in our world have an industrial history. Behind the computer, the T-shirt, the vacuum cleaner is an industrial infrastructure fired by energy (fossil fuels mainly). Each component of our car or refrigerator has an industrial history. Mainly unseen and out of mind, this global industrial infrastructure touches every aspect of our lives. It pervades our daily living from the articles it produces, to its effect on the economy and employment, as well as its effects on the environment.
Solar energy collecting devices also have an industrial history. It is important to understand the industrial infrastructure and the environmental results for the components of the solar energy collecting devices so we don’t designate them with false labels such as green, renewable or sustainable.
This is an essay challenging ‘business as usual’. If we teach people that these solar devices are the future of energy without teaching the whole system, we mislead, misinform and create false hopes and beliefs.
I have provided both charts and videos for the solar cells, modules, aluminum from ore, aluminum from recycling, aluminum extrusion, inverters, batteries and copper.
Please note each piece of machinery you see in each of the videos has its own
industrial interconnection and history.
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/solar-devices-industrial-infrastructure.html
dave thompson on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 5:35 pm
Sunweb I am with you on this one. The failure of people to understand that limitations to alternative energy are huge and overlooked is remarkable. There are now no replacement energy sources for Auto, truck, train, large shipping, air travel, ect, over long distance. Nothing that can be brought to scale, nothing. Feeding 7billion people plus on oxen and dung agriculture is not going to happen. This article is hopium.
eugene on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 5:57 pm
BS
Energy Investor on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 6:18 pm
Sunweb, thank you for the link. It is a brilliant exposition as to why the demise of whale oil and “rock oil” will differ in their severity for humanity.
Davy on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 6:20 pm
Come on folks and let’s wish upon a star with hopium and acknowledge our exceptionalism as a species. What these projections are calling for is nothing short of miraculous. Let’s go from 5% to 10% wind/solar energy contribution by 2030. Wow that solves our problems doesn’t it.
AltE guys will you key me in on the tremendous advances we will need with the smart grid and storage while you are at it. Tell me how it is going to be paid for since you have lots of answers. It’s OK if you want to wing it. We are exceptional creatures and like the Planter says technology is getting cheap and better. That is a win win happiness statement Planter.
We will solved the AGW problem while we are at it I am sure you guys will tell me. I am sure you have a new clean and smart technology to clean the CO2 up as well. Your ace in the hole is fusion. I guess we will recycle all that fossil fuel infrastructure and all that FF rolling stock. We have to make way for a billion EV’s and hydrogen cars. We are going to have to get used to panels and wind turbines everywhere. Guys, can we recycle fossil fuel infrastructure into AltE stuff. That sounds exciting!
This green BAUtopian hopium is bull shit. I won’t even call it cat piss. It has little basis in reality of scaling. It has little connection with capex realities. It is not at all acknowledging economic difficulties and fossil fuel depletion issues just ahead. It fantasizes about a decouple and self-replication of a technology that is nothing more than a fossil fuel extender. Those are sidestepped as if we are transcending FF into the shiny, clean, and smart AltE world.
The fossil comparison they gave, well, that is demand and supply destruction in action. IOW that is a declining economy with declining industrial capacity and capex to build out AltE, smart grids, and future storage. The investments that will be required to get to a level of real contribution are frankly off the charts of what society can manage especially when considering FF infrastructure is decaying and will have to be replaced to continue to build out AltE. We can’t have our cake and eat it. We are in an energy trap of no money and no time. It over folks so throw in the towel. Let’s be men and let’s get down to the brass tacks of survival options.
I love AltE. I have solar power. I want solar water heaters. I already utilize biomass for heat. It is an exciting field that is something we need. What we don’t need is false hope. We don’t need people actually believing all is well because AltE is to the rescue. We have too many serious problems staring us in the face. We have to start accepting our death so to speak. Articles like this are basically denial of death. This death is the death of BAU which is just ahead.
This type of behavior is unhealthy. We are going to be making decisions and choices that don’t reflect our coming reality. We should be in crisis mode planning mitigation and adaptation policies. We should be acknowledging excess deaths over births ahead IOW nasty population decline. Instead we are painting bright cheerful MSM pictures of a future where all is well with progress. We are not acknowledging problems as predicaments.
This is not as bad as the right winger FF fueled idiots that think oil, gas, and coal will see us out for a generation along with an energy decouple from smart economics and efficiency. These folks are psychopaths not wanting to even consider losing power that would occur if FF are marginalized green or collapse related. Yet, this green BAUtopianism is still nothing more than delusional thinking almost as bad as the FF idiots these idiot greens complain about.
Makati1 on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 7:14 pm
Another “waste of time” article from someone justifying a paycheck.
Makati1 on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 7:57 pm
In the news:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-24/electric-car-sales-plunge-4-year-lows
“…What is even more worrisome, motorists who leased those first-generation cars, and have decided not to buy them, are turning them in, leaving dealer lots full of low mileage cars at huge discounts to new ones.”
And the beat goes on…
toms2 on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 11:04 pm
eugene:
“BS”
Makati1:
“Another ‘waste of time’ article from someone justifying a paycheck.”
Davy:
“Come on folks and let’s wish upon a star with hopium…bull shit…cat piss…”
Don’t you guys think you should have considered the report instead of just immediately and reflexively dismissing it?
I just don’t see any legitimate objection here to anything the article said.
-Tom S
Makati1 on Fri, 24th Apr 2015 11:39 pm
toms2, this article is not saying anything new or really useful other than rehashing old news and dreams and making guesses as to anything past 2015. Big tech is over. All they do is quote other liars (Bloomberg, NPR, IEA, etc.) to substantiate theirs.
“ADVANCED ENERGY ECONOMY (AEE) is a national association of business leaders…”
More BAU BS from the capitalist establishment.
http://www.wzzm13.com/story/news/local/2015/04/23/pulverized-roads-kent-county/26263923/
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/DOE-Just-Produced-A-Multi-Trillion-Dollar-Headache-For-Congress.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2015/04/19/three-reasons-oil-will-continue-to-run-the-world/
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/04/decline-fall-united-states.html
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/How-Much-Money-Can-You-Really-Save-With-A-Smart-Home.html
And on, and on…
Kenz300 on Sat, 25th Apr 2015 7:33 am
The transition to safer, cleaner and cheaper alternative energy sources continues.
Renewables Account for 75 Percent of New US Generating Capacity in First Quarter of 2015
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/04/renewables-account-for-75-percent-of-new-us-generating-capacity-in-first-quarter-of-2015
———————
China will continue to increase investments in renewable energy sources…….
Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/03/beijing-to-shut-all-major-coal-power-plants-to-cut-pollution
hiruitnguyse on Sat, 25th Apr 2015 11:58 am
In case no one has discovered these 3 sites yet:
http://ricefarmer.blogspot.fr/
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/
Dredd on Sat, 25th Apr 2015 1:27 pm
e = mc^2
There is no such thing as advanced energy.
Oil is not energy, it is just poison.
When did climate change end (Sea Level Rise: Impact on Energy Infrastructure)?
toms2 on Sat, 25th Apr 2015 3:29 pm
Hi Kenz300,
“Renewables Account for 75 Percent of New US Generating Capacity in First Quarter of 2015”
I have a disagreement with that. Numbers like those refer to nameplate capacity. Renewables actually get far lower power generation, because the wind frequently isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, so they produce less power than their nameplate capacity suggests. Actual power generation from renewables is usually about 25% of nameplate capacity whereas combined cycle turbines is usually 85% or so.
Correcting for that, renewables made up 55% of new generating capacity.
-Tom S
Apneaman on Sat, 25th Apr 2015 5:27 pm
Florida Power & Light has applied for permits to add 2 nuclear reactors to the Turkey Point site. There are many reasons to oppose this, the least of them being, salt water intrusion to the Biscayne aquifer, source of our drinking water, damage to Biscayne Bay and sensitive wetlands, threats from increased storm surges (current spent fuel rods are permanently stored 12 feet above sea level). But the most compelling reason not to locate these reactors at Turkey Point —- it is located at only 1 foot above sea level, is sea level rise (SLR). As you will see, THAT IS A BAD IDEA! Actually, if you are not aware of SLR in south Florida, NOAA and the Army Corps of Engineers predict from 3-6 feet of rise by 2100. Two feet is predicted by 2060. Looks like FPL will not have many customers to sell its product to!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7rgI2SKOgc
Makati1 on Sat, 25th Apr 2015 11:13 pm
Apneamna, Florida is a big sand bar and could be gone by 2100. Or at least unlivable. No drinkable water. No industry. (Tourist is a word that will disappear from the vocabulary long before then). Disney will be empty buildings full of snakes and alligators.
Much of the coastlines of the world have no future. But then, neither does man. Or so it appears.
SolarDave on Sun, 26th Apr 2015 2:12 am
toms2, peaker plants frequently are not running either.
Some multi-megawatt peakers run less than a 24 hours a year – in total.
So if the mix of new generation being reported includes new peakers, it’s entirely possible that the renewables will generate more power than the conventional plants, on an annual basis.