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Page added on February 23, 2018
BP Predicts Renewables Will Peak by 2040
One of the world’s leading energy companies, BP is predicting renewable energy sources to be influential in shaping the global energy sources by 2040.
The report released by BP proposed that renewable energy will grow in five-folds within the next twenty-two (22) years to provide 14% of the world’s primary energy. A growing competition in solar and wind-sourced energy will be a major factor in the expected energy shift. And its rapid development is expected to be enhanced by government policies and technology advancement, according to the 2018 energy outlook.
“We’re seeing a number of forces come together to make global energy markets increasingly competitive. Demand grows less quickly as we get better at using energy more efficiently,” says Spencer Dele, Chief Economist of BP group.
Spenser also revealed that most contributions to the energy transition will come from Asia, with China and India contributing about 50%. “All the growth in energy demand over the next 20 or 30 years comes from fast-growing developing economies: China and India each account for around 25% of that growth. But, as China transitions to a more sustainable – and less energy intensive – pattern of growth, India looks set to take over as the world’s major growth market for energy by the early 2030s,” Spenser disclosed.
An expected higher intensity in the use of cars will force electric cars to contribute about 30% of vehicle distances covered from an assumed 15% of its market share by 2040.
However, the expected energy transition did not sideline the world’s carbon emission from thermal cracking. Carbon emission is rather expected to rise by 10% by 2040 sequel to the expected rise in the use of hydrocarbon fuel. This did not meet the Paris climate goal which aims a rapid decrease in carbon emission for a global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius.
The expected rise in carbon emission may not be satisfactory based on the established goal of achieving a 50% decrease by 2040, but the report opines that the expected rise is the slowest increase rate over the past 25 years.
More from the report suggests that natural gas would become the second largest energy source, replacing coal, as a result of power demands, low-cost supplies and industrialization among growing companies. This proposal means that the world would need a significant investment in gas production to handle its future demand.
There was no speculation on biofuel as a significant source in the world’s future energy according to the 2018 energy outlook. And aside from wind energy, electric cars are the significant renewable energy that will reduce the world’s oil demand by 10% by 2040.
“As fully autonomous cars become increasingly available from the early 2020s, we’re likely to see huge growth in those cars being shared, meaning they’ll be used with greater frequency. And, the low-running cost of electric cars means that the majority of these shared mobilities, autonomous cars will be electric cars, boosting the penetration of electricity in the car market and having the biggest impact on oil demand,” Spencer said.
19 Comments on "BP Predicts Renewables Will Peak by 2040"
MASTERMIND on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 3:10 pm
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017
https://imgur.com/k7VecMq
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002
OPEC sees no peak oil demand from EVs before 2040
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/interview-opecs-barkindo-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-21357073
dave thompson on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 4:35 pm
What is renewable in an industrial civilization? I cannot think of a single thing that would qualify as “renewable” on a human time scale. We chop down the trees,wash away the soil,poison the water, foul the air, mine the ocean of all living creatures,relentlessly burn FF, then put up some wind turbines and solar PV claiming the energy is “renewable”. Humans as a collective are not very wise.
onlooker on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 5:04 pm
Great point Dave. We are reaching the end of the line in terms of having a capacity to maintain so many people and in the manner many live. And it simply is because the biocapacity of this planet is eroding and diminishing due to the pressures that our species is subjecting the planet too.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 8:52 pm
Powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a total fantasy
http://reason.com/blog/2017/06/21/powering-us-using-100-percent-renewable
MASTERMIND on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 9:00 pm
This is what would happen to clogg if he opened his fucking mouth in real life!
https://i.imgur.com/PVa60tN.gifv
Antius on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 10:05 pm
“Powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a total fantasy”
From your link – it would take decades of investment and the final cost of the infrastructure would be 13 times greater than the existing generation and distribution system. Then again, Jacobson is proposing a solution that provides all energy, rather than just existing electric power. It is still relatively expensive, but maybe not quite so much as it first appears.
US electricity consumption is 13MWh per capita per year – equivalent to a continuous output of 440GW. To supply total energy using electricity would roughly double that total. In the 1970s, the US was able to produce nuclear power reactors in 3-5 years at a cost of $1000/kW in modern money. So replacing all US energy with nuclear energy might require an investment of about 0.9trillion in powerplants if they could be built quickly and perhaps another 10% in added transmission.
The French were able to build PWRs quickly enough to go from about 10% nuclear generation to 80% in about a decade – all whilst increasing total electricity consumption substantially. They did that by rapidly building identical design units without significant institutional restrictions. Maybe the US could do the same? It would mean sticking two fingers up at the NRC.
All in all, it is possible to produce enough nuclear power plants to meet all US energy consumption at the same cost as the existing electricity grid. The thing that makes this possible is the much higher power density of nuclear systems compared to competing systems and their low unit cost if mass produced with rapid build time.
The energy crisis is a problem we have made for ourselves. We have always had an alternative.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 10:09 pm
antus
Peak oil is a liquid fuels problem. We can’t run out trucks, ships and planes off renewable s…
Antius on Fri, 23rd Feb 2018 10:30 pm
“Peak oil is a liquid fuels problem. We can’t run out trucks, ships and planes off renewable s…”
Ships did run off renewable energy until the end of the 19th century. They were relatively slow, but it worked. But that is not what I am suggesting here.
My suggestion is mass produced nuclear, on a timescale that keeps us well ahead of the oil depletion curve. We can do that with nuclear power, because powerplants can be produced very quickly under mass production conditions. They are very compact compared to any competing alternative.
If you have lots and lots of cheap electricity, then there are solutions to the liquid fuels problem that are affordable. What is more, cheap electricity would generate a surge in US economic growth that would lift prosperity and make everything more affordable. China was able to take a lot of US industry in no small part due to its ability to generate power from coal very cheaply. If Trump wants those industries back and wants to make America great again, the surest way of doing it would be to produce an abundance of cheap energy and challenge their competitive advantage. There is only one technology available that could do that at this point.
TheNationalist on Sat, 24th Feb 2018 3:45 am
If we reach only 14% renewables by 2040 for 11 billion fleshy viruses then it is good night Vienna for us all.
jawagord on Sat, 24th Feb 2018 8:24 am
Maybe sooner given the short life span (20-25yrs) of wind and solar installations, the red queen of replacement will soon suck up most of the renewable dollars and renewables will be hit very hard by rising interest rates and the end of easy Obama era money.
“…….the imminent end of cheap finance would have a damaging impact on the new players to the green energy market, adding that these new non-industrial entrants with little experience were making overly aggressive bids on contracts to build renewable energy, thinking its was a financial “el Dorado”.”
http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2018/02/iberdrola-chief-says-global-renewable-sector-facing-enron-style-endgame.html
MASTERMIND on Sat, 24th Feb 2018 9:25 am
Solar and wind are scams and don’t get me started on Tesla anything!
Cloggie on Sat, 24th Feb 2018 9:27 am
Club backed by Shell and Statoil predicts that by 2040, 80% of the world’s energy could be non-fossil. The EU merely expects that to happen for Europe. Shell and Statoil just became treehugger companies.
https://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/80-zero-carbon-energy-2040-achievable-says-oil-backed-commission.html
Cloggie on Sat, 24th Feb 2018 9:34 am
Maybe sooner given the short life span (20-25yrs) of wind and solar installations
Sure.
This Dutch windmill was built in a time before America was ever heard of (ca. 1440) and still operates (for tourists):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuT5vNljXVk
This one from the 17th century is still sawing (for tourists):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6FxG3ll-lw
The Eiffel tower still stands after more tha a century and will stand for another 3 centuries.
This 20-25 year figures of yours is a “guarantee”; there is reason to assume that the real life span will be much longer
Steve on Sat, 24th Feb 2018 10:20 am
Do we have decades?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Cloggie on Sun, 25th Feb 2018 12:36 am
“it would take decades of investment and the final cost of the infrastructure would be 13 times greater than the existing generation and distribution system.”
It will take indeed decades.
Oh and the fuel will come for free, you should not forget that. And there is no polution or negative climate effects.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 25th Feb 2018 12:53 am
Clogg keep dreaming you retard…And 90 percent of our transportation runs on oil . And there is no substitute for that..
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017
https://imgur.com/k7VecMq
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
Powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a total fantasy
http://reason.com/blog/2017/06/21/powering-us-using-100-percent-renewable
IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002
MASTERMIND on Sun, 25th Feb 2018 12:55 am
CLogg
I cant believe I haven’t chased you away yet. Every time you spew your renewable nonsense you get monkey hammered by my evidence..You must be a shill for Big Tech! lol
Davy on Sun, 25th Feb 2018 5:20 am
“Oh and the fuel will come for free, you should not forget that. And there is no polution or negative climate effects.”
Crock of shit. Nothing is free. It takes huge ongoing investments to gather power from natural sources. There is pollution in this process. Just being human in the numbers we are at is negative climate.
Kenz300 on Tue, 27th Feb 2018 1:31 pm
Money talks and Bullxxxx walks.
People around the world are putting their money into renewable energy and it keeps growing every year as it get cheaper.
Two-thirds of world’s new energy capacity in 2016 was renewable: IEA
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113115_two-thirds-of-worlds-new-energy-capacity-in-2016-was-renewable-iea