“This can be read as a success for Tehran,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran-focused research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C.
The Houthi strikes, and Soleimani’s direct reference to the Bab el-Mandeb on Thursday, “is a signal that Tehran has options for escalation.”
Bab el-Mandeb sees about 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, which is small compared to the 17 million that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula. Hormuz sits on the peninsula’s eastern flank, and is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
But the fear here, said RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy, is that increased Houthi rebel attacks on tankers heightens the chance that one will actually be sunk.
In that event, the U.S. “could be forced to become more actively engaged in ensuring maritime security, like during the tanker wars,” of the Iran-Iraq war, Croft said, referencing an incident in 1988 where the U.S. came into direct conflict with Iran after Iranian sea mines blew up part of an American missile frigate. The U.S., which supported Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war, subsequently destroyed roughly half of Iran’s naval facilities.
A crisis in the Bab el-Mandeb would trigger greater fears over incidents in Hormuz and send oil prices upward. And while it would be difficult for Iran to close the Straits for a prolonged period, “it could carry off one-off attacks on vessels,” she warned.
Lashing out ahead of oil sanctions deadline
The escalation comes as the U.S. prepares to reimpose sanctions on Iran as part of its withdrawal from the seven-nation JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the deal that allowed economic relief for Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.
The Trump administration, through use of secondary sanctions, has mandated that all countries wind their imports of Iranian crude down to zero by November 4, in addition to deploying sanctions on a range of other products and financial activities.
“It is no accident that as U.S. sanctions are about to be levied and enforced, Iran is lashing out,” Ben Taleblu said.
The regime in Tehran has threatened that if it is unable to trade its oil, other countries will be stopped as well, citing its willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 30 percent of the world’s oil shipments pass.
While this is unlikely to succeed given the presence of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, Iran can up its direct harassment of U.S. vessels in the Gulf with IRGC speedboats and drones, activity that had largely stopped since mid-2017, according to Pentagon officials.
And its expected increase in support for regional proxies — which is exactly the behavior the U.S. seeks to deter — will likely incur yet more sanctions.
dissident on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:11 am
Nobody appointed the US and its pals (NATO) as bosses of the Earth. US sanctions on Iran are BS since they are based on the nonsense that Iran is not allowed to develop nuclear weapons. This is typical US shyster BS. Since none of the major powers disarmed, the NPT clauses forbidding nuclear weapons development by signatories are null and void. And if Isreal can have nuclear weapons, then so can Iran. Whether Israel or the US likes this is utterly irrelevant.
So the US attempts to stop Iranian oil exports are an actual act of war aggression. They have nothing to do with enforcing any sort of laws or peace. Iran cannot be deemed an aggressor for responding to US aggression.
Sissyfuss on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:24 am
One reason the US hasn’t won any wars of late is we’re not fighting to defend our homeland. We’re fighting to stop Communism, to secure resource acquisition, or to change regimes that don’t agree with us. Our armed services have become a collection of underemployed mercenaries with no clear vision of the mission. We are preparing to add Iran to our list of failures.
Duncan Idaho on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:36 am
The world economy could be history in 15 minutes with Iranian Missile technology (can you say Russian Missile Technology?).
KSA is having trouble stopping 1970’s mid level tech currently.
Davy on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 11:52 am
No mention from the board members above about the Iranian mischief making in the region. Nope, just how bad the Americans and KSA are. Iran could make an effort at a more moderate posture.
“(can you say Russian Missile Technology?).”
Idaho, the missiles I think you are speaking of (S-300) are not operational yet. The delivery will be completed by the end of the year. I am assuming you think these will protect Iran to do as they please. You realize there will be a limited number of missiles.
“KSA is having trouble stopping 1970’s mid level tech currently.”
So I guess you are saying US is having trouble stopping 1970’s tech? I say that because their missiles are American.
Cloggie on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 12:07 pm
No mention from the board members above about the Iranian mischief making in the region. Nope, just how bad the Americans and KSA are. Iran could make an effort at a more moderate posture.
Davy is right, give the US a break, for God sake! Let them attack yet another country, causing hundreds of thousands to be killed, for no discernable justification whatsoever, just because they feel like it. Stop this unbearable anti-Amurricanism, damn it!
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 12:49 pm
Clog
You know damn well why trump is targeting Iran..Because that is what Israel and KSA want..And those three are as thick as thieves.
Davy on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 1:00 pm
It’s called objectivity and balance for a reason, neder. To bad you don’t believe in the basis of the truth.
jordan on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 1:19 pm
Truth is something tRump knows and practices very well.
rockman on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 2:55 pm
Preventing Iran from inhibiting the flow of oil out of the ME is in the best interest the US and all industrial nations. Those countries would not officially condemn the US from preventing such Iranian efforts IMHO. President Trump would gladly use military action against Iran to distract the American people from the mounting negative circumstances building against him IMHO. The US has the capability of destroying all Iranian warships and land based missile batteries without risking the life of a single US military member. Fact…not a HO. Might cost us $1+ billion bu can be done. Iran attacking civilian oil tankers would allow the POTUS to attack Iran without Congressional approval. Again, fact and not opinion.
Given the deep shit hole the POTUS has dug for himself Iran just threatening to disrupt export is foolish enough. Actually doing so is suicidal IMHO.
BTW right or wrong doesn’t have a f*cking thing to do with the reality of the situation. It’s simply a matter of exercising power.
Dredd on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 3:36 pm
Another Sign of Another Layer in the Oil Wars?
Boat on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 3:49 pm
Sisdfuss
Why do you call them failures. Small conflicts taking out Authoritative regimes. You know, the black hats. A scourage of festering intolerance.
tahoe1780 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 6:12 pm
“our allies are required to have equipment that meets our specifications”
I didn’t know that. Now, if only we could get them to increase their NATO budgets…
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/07/24/the-all-pervasive-military-security-complex/
Esfandiar on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 7:19 pm
Trump’s escalation in the Region is the Antithesis Mexican greatest mistake in foreign policy. Iran is quite different from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. It is powerful and popular country in the region. It has the capability to create another Vietnam for U.S
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:04 pm
Rockman
Trump hasn’t dug himself a hole because the corporate media keeps praising his fake economic boom..And his deplorables will never turn on him because he is a fat ignorant dough boy just like them..
Roger on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:09 pm
This saber rattling is merely the overture. The prophet Ezekiel, 2600 years ago, foretold of an alliance of Russia, Iran, and Turkey (among others) coming against Israel:
“And the word of the LORD came to me saying, “Son of man, set your face toward Gog of the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, ‘Thus says the Lord GOD, “Behold, I am against you, O Gog, prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal. I will turn you about and put hooks into your jaws, and I will bring you out, and all your army, horses and horsemen, all of them splendidly attired, a great company with buckler and shield, all of them wielding swords; Persia, Ethiopia and Put with them, all of them with shield and helmet; Gomer with all its troops; Beth-togarmah from the remote parts of the north with all its troops-many peoples with you. “Be prepared, and prepare yourself, you and all your companies that are assembled about you, and be a guard for them. After many days you will be summoned; in the latter years you will come into the land that is restored from the sword, whose inhabitants have been gathered from many nations to the mountains of Israel which had been a continual waste; but its people were brought out from the nations, and they are living securely, all of them. You will go up, you will come like a storm; you will be like a cloud covering the land, you and all your troops, and many peoples with you.””
Ezekiel 38:1-9 NASB
http://bible.com/100/ezk.38.1-9.nasb
They’re in Syria now….and Iran is itching to invade Israel. However, the USA won’t save Israel…we’re not even mentioned.
Makati1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:18 pm
Roger, fairy tails are not useful in predicting the future. If there is a full blown ME war, Israel will be eradicated from the earth forever. And, they will lose all controls everywhere else. So be it. They should never have been given land in the first place.
Roger on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:37 pm
“They should have never been given the land in the first place.”
God is sovereign and will do with His creation as He chooses.
“On that day the LORD made a covenant with Abram, saying, “To your descendants I have given this land, From the river of Egypt as far as the great river, the river Euphrates:”
Genesis 15:18 NASB
http://bible.com/100/gen.15.18.nasb
Newfie on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:41 pm
It’s a safe bet that if Iran tries to block the flow of oil from the Gulf it will be turned into a weapons testing ground.
GregT on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:42 pm
“Roger, fairy tails are not useful in predicting the future.”
There are many factions that believe otherwise Makati1, and it certainly appears that many Isrealis, and the Trump administration itself, are among those factions.
For it is written…….
GregT on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 8:49 pm
“It’s a safe bet that if Iran tries to block the flow of oil from the Gulf it will be turned into a weapons testing ground.”
It is also a safe bet that if Iran is turned into a weapons testing ground, the entire planet will be turned into a toxic wasteland.
It really is about time for the American people to take back control of the USA, from the ZOG, and their MIC.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:01 pm
Roger
My favorite bible verse has always been,
“And then she boiled her son and ate him”
-2 Kings 629
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:04 pm
Greg
American’s take back control? they never had control..they get to decide their leaders which is basically a choice between coke and pepsi..its all just sleight of hand..
Lmfao!
Duncan Idaho on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:05 pm
“It’s a safe bet that if Iran tries to block the flow of oil from the Gulf it will be turned into a weapons testing ground.”
Well, KSA oil and infastructrre will be gone in 15 minutes with those cool Russian Missiles.
And we will all be living in a different world.
Makati1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:14 pm
GregT, Religion is the scourge of modern educated peoples. Designed to control the serfs in prehistory, it has outlived its usefulness. The end will NOT be as the bible dictates. Not at all. There is nothing after death but decay of the remains. Too late to change what is coming. So be it.
Roger on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:16 pm
“It is really about time for the American people to take back control of the USA, from the ZOG, and their MIC.”
“It can not be emphasized too strongly or too often that this great nation was founded, not by religionists, but by Christians, not on religions, but on the gospel of Jesus Christ!”
Patrick Henry
Makati1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:16 pm
Unfortunately, I agree Duncan. I think it will be the total end, unless there are some rational people controlling the nukes. I doubt that is the fact. Certainly not in America.
Makati1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:23 pm
Rodger, that was the thought 250+ years ago, but not fact. America was founded by commerce, not fairy tails. The Dutch were the instigators of America as it is today.
Religion was a large part of the life some of the uneducated people in the 1700s but that did not require a new country to be formed. It was based on trade needs and control of taxes. Money ruled then as now. Not religion, although Jews have always been money grubbers since Egypt.
Makati1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:26 pm
BTW: Leaders always pretend to be whatever the masses want them to be, not what they actually are. Presidents are still sworn in on a Bible, but look at their real lives. Do you really believe that Jefferson, Washington, Franklin, etc. were what history proclaims. Not likely.
LMAO
Roger on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:29 pm
“Rodger, that was the thought 250+ years ago, but not fact.”
Makati1, the quote is from Patrick Henry…he was actually there.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:30 pm
Roger
Patrick Henry was a fictitious person..he didn’t actually exist..You moron..you bible thumpers will believe the most far fetched shit..
GregT on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:45 pm
MM,
http://www.history.org/almanack/people/bios/biohen.cfm
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 9:47 pm
Greg
My bad..I think it was that quote he said about having two lives to die for his country that was made up..And i got it switched up..Not sure though..and i dont care to look…lol
MASTERMIND on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 10:16 pm
Democracy’s decline
Giroux argues elements of fascism emerging in Donald Trump’s America
In American Nightmare: Facing the Challenge of Fascism, the Hamilton, Ont.-based Giroux eloquently yet forcefully makes the case that the United States has indeed become a fascist state, embodying many of the characteristics of the regimes of the 20th century as well as current prototypes (Russia, Egypt, Hungary, Turkey, Philippines, etc.).
https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/arts-and-life/entertainment/books/democracys-decline-489410101.html
Makati1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 11:18 pm
Roger, did you personally hear Patrick say that? Then how do you know he actually did? Answer: You only assume he said it, just like your assume that Jesus actually lived when there is no proof.
Dooma on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 11:54 pm
“So the US attempts to stop Iranian oil exports are an actual act of war aggression. They have nothing to do with enforcing any sort of laws or peace. Iran cannot be deemed an aggressor for responding to US aggression.”
How true dissident.
But when you are dealing with the most obnoxious bullies on the planet, all reason is null and void.
Just look at what the Americans orchestrated in Libya. The most stable and prosperous country in Northern Africa.
Isreal has its hand firmly wedged up inside the US’s arse. As you mentioned, why can the Jews and the American Jews have nuclear missiles (both have shown how hostile they can be) but a country like Iran cannot?
Complete bullshit. Except for the fact that it could spark a very devastating conflict.
Horace on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 12:12 am
How come they let any idiot write something here. I bet most of those above are in some university in the U.S. Sad. The future from them looks bleek.
Davy on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:00 am
“Venezuela’s Maduro Suspect in Probe as U.S. Keeps Pressure On”
https://tinyurl.com/y7srtrtx
“President Nicolas Maduro is a principal suspect in a U.S. investigation into the embezzlement of more than $1 billion from the South American country’s state-owned oil company, the Miami Herald reported, as the U.S. adds to the pressure on the socialist leader. Maduro, his three stepsons and other Venezuelan government officials are being investigated for links to an international money-laundering conspiracy tied to Petroleos de Venezuela SA, known as PDVSA, the newspaper reported, citing sources familiar with the investigation that it didn’t identify”
The Newfie on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:56 am
“bleek” ? Did you mean “bleak” ?
Sissyfuss on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 8:42 am
Roger, this country was founded on genocide, land theft, and slavery. Not very very Christian, to say the least. And Franklin and Jefferson were very aware of the dangers of theocracy and tried to construct a national zeitgeist that allowed religion but kept it in its place, namely in the heads of the believers.
joe on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 9:14 am
Sissyfus, maybe I’m mistaken, I just can’t find ‘genocide’ in the declaration of independence. Maybe I should read the one you have. Did you get it from Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
joe on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 9:20 am
Mastermind, the only elements of facism are coming from the left who cant tolerate different points of view or even that a majority white country has a white president.
Whites still have another 20 years before the number of minorities will outnumber whites but the majority ethnic group will still be white, 45% when the next largest is 20% is still majority white, sorry dude.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 10:39 am
Joe
when the oil shortage hits in a few years I will just tell the white man NO one time..Then watch hims stroke out while i breed his daughters..I am going to have more kids than Stanford..
We’ll bring up that percentage faster than 20 years..
joe on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 11:43 am
Mm, you do realise that when chaos comes it will be for all. Blacks just ain’t smart enough to make it. Right now white women are married to the state and can afford to f**k any dumb dick. In survival of the smartest, blacks lose. Its science mannnnnn….
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 12:09 pm
Joe
Maybe you should have read darwins book in you want to cite science..That said its not the smartest or strongest that survive..Its those who are most adaptable to a changing environment..Most minorities have already had to adapt to living war zones..Now the party is coming to the white neighborhoods..Well see how long mr corporate america last…
Cloggie on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 1:09 pm
“when the oil shortage hits in a few years I will just tell the white man NO one time..Then watch hims stroke out while i breed his daughters..I am going to have more kids than Stanford..”
Either that or you two feet sticking out of an oven. It is going to be a close call, with developments in the US carefully warched by major parties in Eurasia, parties aiming at upward geopolitical mobility. And your kind involuntarily is going to deliver.
Makati1 on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:19 pm
joe, ask the native Americans about genocide and land theft. Ask the African-Americans about slavery. Then tell me the Us was not founded on both.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:28 pm
Madkat
The native Americans were brutal savages who practiced cannibalism..and they attacked each other all the time..We couldn’t coexist with living next to cannibals..And we payed them back for that shit..They have reservations now and all the casino’s..
Makati1 on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:51 pm
MM, North America belonged to them. Your reason to take their land and kill them is not justified. You are only using the ‘Whitey is better’ argument and it is based on arrogance and greed. YOU have no idea what they were like. Only the propaganda that you have been fed since birth. Most tribes were NOT what you claim. Do some real research outside the brainwashing you have received.
Now, justify slavery…
Makati1 on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:53 pm
BTW: How do you classify current “Americans”? Most of the world would classify you as “brutal savages” killing anywhere you want and for the same reasons, greed and arrogance.
Defend that one…
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Jul 2018 6:54 pm
Madkat
Most Indians had slaves as well..Like the Aztecs who used to cut out their beating hearts and burn them on the stake, to make human sacrifices to their gods..Read Cortez’s diaries ..You just never went to college so you are uneducated..