[evilgenius]

I think that in 2021 both climate change and cyber security will become important. Climate change because it's already happening. Cyber security because threats that come from where you don't expect them are more scary. Right now, we are waiting for Trump's people to demonstrate, and threaten another physical location. What happens if they are up to doing something virtual?

[Outcast_Searcher]

And also, to be honest, anyone but, say, Tesla fanbois, would freely admit that most of the current daily movement in TSLA is based on speculation vs. an investment time-frame, re fundamental developments to what Tesla is doing. So does BTC need to be any different?

I pretty much agree with your post. What is worth adding as Careinke pointed out is that the number of BItcoins is finite and as the value goes up you are purchasing a fraction of a bitcoin. Unlike fiat currencies controlled by central banks investing in Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. At the moment with the economic crisis caused by Covid19 requiring huge injections of fiat currencies in the worlds economies to deal with the economic dislocation investing in BItcoin is viewed as a inflation hedge. Inflation seems inevitable resulting from all these trillions being pumped into economies to keep them going until the pandemic is passed. Crypto digital gold.

But that's ALL based on the presumption that it's ALL about network effects, and Bitcoin will be THE network of choice for Crypto, because it was first. Despite all its flaws. Despite the risks from government regulation. Despite the fact that other cryptos are gaining ground (like Etherium) and so there are already multiple popular crypto networks, and potentially an unlimited number of useful crypto networks. Including government issued (and supported) crypto-currencies.

Gold, due to its immutability and rarity has few effective substitutes. Pretty much the opposite of digital currency X. And it can't be hacked like crypto exchanges if you hold it personally in safe storage.

So, re Bitcoin, it's all based on FAITH that people like Cathie Wood are right, and Bitcoin WILL be THE network, and government won't intervene, and nothing will go wrong.

That might work out and it might not. Investing money in that which one can't afford to gamble with (and lose if they're wrong) is a very dangerous game. Just like having a large proportion of one's net worth in Tesla because they worship Musk, despite how bizarre his claims are over time, AND what the valuation of Tesla stock implies re its growth year after year.

Such FAITH might work out very well, or horribly. I at least admit that I can't see the future, but I also wasn't born yesterday and realize that, at a minimum, prudence should VERY MUCH be a thing, when investing.

BTW, I do have some Tesla and now a little Bitcoin (via GBTC stock), as a longish term speculation. But I am absolutely NOT being crazy-risky about it, nor do I intend to.

[Pops]

I think that in 2021 both climate change and cyber security will become important. Climate change because it's already happening. Cyber security because threats that come from where you don't expect them are more scary. Right now, we are waiting for Trump's people to demonstrate, and threaten another physical location. What happens if they are up to doing something virtual?

This could be the winner.
The Russians are way up deep in our business, both gov and biz. They've been there at least 9 months. I know nothing about hacking but I'm gonna say that is sufficient time to steal anything worth stealing and insert backdoors in everything that matters.

This caught my eye:

[US cyber officials] said they worried about delicate but unclassified data the hackers might have taken from victims like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, including Black Start, the detailed technical blueprints for how the United States plans to restore power in the event of a cataclysmic blackout.

The plans would give Russia a hit list of systems to target to keep power from being restored in an attack like the one it pulled off in Ukraine in 2015, shutting off power for six hours in the dead of winter. Moscow long ago implanted malware in the American electric grid, and the United States has done the same to Russia as a deterrent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/us/p ... nment.html

[evilgenius]

If they, meaning the weird sort of fantasy alliance of Russia and the US domestic terror threat, went after the treasury market, they could cause havoc. That would be a target that at once hearkened back to the days of the Soviet Union, raising such a capitalistic figure up to scrutiny, as well as addressed so many of the problems the far right have with the way the system works. The Fed is no friend of your average conspiracy theorist.

But I don't know if I actually predict that. There's is a lot besides that, and it isn't so well protected.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I think that in 2021 both climate change and cyber security will become important. Climate change because it's already happening. Cyber security because threats that come from where you don't expect them are more scary. Right now, we are waiting for Trump's people to demonstrate, and threaten another physical location. What happens if they are up to doing something virtual?

This could be the winner.
The Russians are way up deep in our business, both gov and biz. They've been there at least 9 months. I know nothing about hacking but I'm gonna say that is sufficient time to steal anything worth stealing and insert backdoors in everything that matters.

This caught my eye:

[US cyber officials] said they worried about delicate but unclassified data the hackers might have taken from victims like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, including Black Start, the detailed technical blueprints for how the United States plans to restore power in the event of a cataclysmic blackout.

The plans would give Russia a hit list of systems to target to keep power from being restored in an attack like the one it pulled off in Ukraine in 2015, shutting off power for six hours in the dead of winter. Moscow long ago implanted malware in the American electric grid, and the United States has done the same to Russia as a deterrent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/us/p ... nment.html

Re back doors being inserted, if the US still lacks the ability to compare code versions to ensure no one hacked what was installed, then we DESERVE to be massively hacked. If the US lacks the will to mandate and enforce that such checks are routinely made on a regular basis, then we DESERVE to be hacked.

Now, given how effective big government actually is over time -- the US may well be seriously vulnerable to such back doors, pathetic as that is.

Disclosure: Spoken as a mainframe computer expert who made his living installing and maintaining and shooting massive core dumps to solve problems on and giving advice on IBM's major database system, DB2, for scores of commercial customers and internal businesses running on IBM mainframes for decades. So not just talking out of where I sit, here.

[evilgenius]

By the time Christmas comes around, anyone who has decided to go it alone, outside of the government's forgivable loan restrictions, will really be feeling it.

The markers could be touch and go, for some sectors. Hangers on, like JC Penny, may actually sink below the waves. Or, companies could become untethered from reality altogether, becoming believer's echospheres.

[Outcast_Searcher]

By the time Christmas comes around, anyone who has decided to go it alone, outside of the government's forgivable loan restrictions, will really be feeling it.

The markers could be touch and go, for some sectors. Hangers on, like JC Penny, may actually sink below the waves. Or, companies could become untethered from reality altogether, becoming believer's echospheres.

As though JC Penney hasn't been an economic disaster for a good 15 years now, and flirting with bankruptcy (at least on and off) for a number of years (I'm not going to bother to look it up).

Running businesses often involves debt. If debt can't be paid, a business is at risk. When there's a financial mess causing a big downturn, that problem gets magnified -- i.e. in any major recession.

Nothing really new here, except this mess came on very quickly, and was completely unexpected (economic signals don't trigger for a virus -- only when the economy is impacted because people stop going places and spending as much money).

[evilgenius]

I think the Fed won't keep interest rates as low as they are now. I think there will be at least one quarter point rate rise. In the meantime, the rate on the ten year will blow well past a quarter percent higher than it is right now. I don't know why, but the financial world will act like it wasn't prepared for that. There could be a spike downward, which would really be a buying opportunity.

[evilgenius]

By the time Christmas comes around, anyone who has decided to go it alone, outside of the government's forgivable loan restrictions, will really be feeling it.

The markers could be touch and go, for some sectors. Hangers on, like JC Penny, may actually sink below the waves. Or, companies could become untethered from reality altogether, becoming believer's echospheres.

As though JC Penney hasn't been an economic disaster for a good 15 years now, and flirting with bankruptcy (at least on and off) for a number of years (I'm not going to bother to look it up).

Running businesses often involves debt. If debt can't be paid, a business is at risk. When there's a financial mess causing a big downturn, that problem gets magnified -- i.e. in any major recession.

Nothing really new here, except this mess came on very quickly, and was completely unexpected (economic signals don't trigger for a virus -- only when the economy is impacted because people stop going places and spending as much money).

Yeah, so maybe on a thread that is meant to be some fun I should have no fun. I mean this in the nicest way, I like you, but get off of my cloud!

[careinke]

I think the Fed won't keep interest rates as low as they are now. I think there will be at least one quarter point rate rise. In the meantime, the rate on the ten year will blow well past a quarter percent higher than it is right now. I don't know why, but the financial world will act like it wasn't prepared for that. There could be a spike downward, which would really be a buying opportunity.

That did not work out so well for Japan when they tried it a few years ago.

Put your fiat into Bitcoin.

Peace

[Outcast_Searcher]

BUMP, per careinke's request in the 2022 predictions forum.

[careinke]

BUMP, per careinke's request in the 2022 predictions forum.

Thanks OS,
After a quick re-read, I don't think I did such a bad job. Some still need to play out.

I certainly missed the ATH on Bitcoin! As of right now, BTC has only increased 108% since Jan 1st. Personally, my crypto portfolio is up about 200% (some alt coins have risen much faster than BTC). It appears we have either lengthened the four year cycles, or they are becoming no longer valid due to more institutional, local, state and even national acceptance overwhelming the retail investors. Whales are actively trying to keep the price down while they accumulate. Plus we had a black swan event (Covid-D scare) in March just like the stock market which caused a pretty significant drop in price. Still I remain bullish on Crypto.

Some of my failed predictions made me happy I was wrong, Like a major war.

Overall, Plant seemed to have made a lot of correct predictions.

Others did well too.

PEACE

[Pops]

Have you ever seen a kid when they realize they've just done something bad? I get the feeling some republicans are feeling some vague sense of remorse and perhaps hoping for an excuse to get away from the poison they've been drinking and spoon feeding the gullible masses. I don't know for sure, and don't have much of a baseline since I never go there, but looking at Fox News site just now it reads like VOX or huffpost as the hypocrites scramble to distance themselves from the outrages they have been lining their pockets with for years. Probably a fleeting moment but I'll predict that some Rinos like Romney gain in power and the most outrageous like Hawley and Gommert (violence in the streets!) are sidelined.

Wow, was I way off on that one.

I'll predict the Ds get the federal minimum wage raised to at least $12 if not $15, and the Rs continue to implement the "southern strategy" because after all, it's all they got.

LOL, Well I get half a point

trump will attempt to pardon himself and everyone he ever knew, loved, touched stood next to, smelt, felt, in his lifetime or any of his descendants lifetime down to the 133 person. (*David Bromberg)

Duh, that was stupid. A person would have to have some sense of empathy to grant pardons. trump doesn't and in fact granted fewer than any modern pres.

He'll leave the country before the inauguration to avoid prosecution. Maybe go see Vlad for his payday and discuss some military secrets in return for a hotel sign.

Could happen yet.

On the D side Biden is having a tough transition, ...

Considering old Joe was never anyone's pick, before he stood up next to trump that is, it isn't too surprising his numbers are low. Covid's still here, retail & supply lines are still swallowing the massive wad of cash dropped on the pandemic. He's taking the rap on inflation but the biggest inflation is right where you'd expect it, in things that don't stop and start on a dime:

Biden will have a signing party to reverse as many of trumps orders as possible, those that weren't just BS or weren't already killed by judges anyway. He'll rejoin the Paris accord, WHO, WTO, Great Reset. He'll do some national health stuff, recommend masks or something, attempt to organize the vaccine delivery, maybe give drug companies money.

I get one point for these.

Legislatively the parties are pretty equally divided and internally divided too so not much will happen, maybe public works — home weather stripping like O did. More stimulus tho, Ds can ram that through. They know that some serious recession is out there waiting on the helicopters to leave.

One point

Social media will be regulated. MSM will stare at their collective navels.

.5pt

It will take a long time to reach herd immunity, couple of years anyway. A minimum of 1 million people will die in the US. More if the new variant is much more contagious. It will be known as the trump plague. Maybe in a year when more study is complete and the variant is killing 10k/day more people will embrace the vaccine. I know a few health pros, some are not taking it because they don't trust the safety, don't trust trump.

Maybe .25pt on this, we'll easily hit a million just on delta, but only 800k so far, Omi will take it from here, luckily the vaccine makes it a bad cold.

Huge real estate washout coming. Ds will try to avoid it like the ...

A little early on this. Lots of people want out of town, lots of boomers are holding on with everything they've got. Zillow and OpenDoor (the biggest homeowner in America) are both being pounded in the market, fed is "tapering" faster, rates going up.

FHA loan delinquencies are at record highs and only national forbearance and refinancing with free money and FHA buying up loans like it can print money...
...has kept the market afloat. But now everyone that can refi has, forbearance can't last forever, and the market has overheated on free money once again.

The foreclosure tsunami didn't happen. I left money selling too early in Washington— although I sold for more than the appraisal.

Oil demand and price will remain low thru the plague. Independants and small LTO operators will go BK and be bought up by majors. Uncontrolled growth in unconventional production will never return. Majors and OPEC will delay development because Iran will be allowed to export and the price will crash some more. No development now means no new oil in 5ish years. Natural gas demand will wane with increasing RE, and that means lower gas liquids. All the while depletion never sleeps. C+C will begin to decline this decade, about the time the economy wants to grow.

Split decision here... J/K, I was way off! LOL
Demand is up, majors bought no one and in fact are running scared, low drilling rigs and mostly fracking DUCs, no oil price crash, NatGas being exported like mad and the price is mad too,

Night is still be dark and winter still cold and it is still a long way from here to there.
Peak demand is a mirage.
And peak oil is past

Well definitely no peak in demand in sight, that was a figment of a near total shutdown and tree-hugger's wishful thinking. Pretty sure we'll get another little supply peak in the next few years unless the economy crashes..

[Shaved Monkey]

I predict BAU there will be no great pivot, the world will come slowly out of Covid with the milder Omega being a lot easier to live with, we will have had a few years to re-evaluate our lives and have made our New Years resolutions to be better but we will fall back into our old habits.
The environment gets worse,the economy is still a ponzi scheme,Chinas influence will continue to grow the US influence will continue to diminish,Fossil Fuels will still rule...life goes on