[PWALPOCO]

sch_peakoiler ,

I suspect the "immediate response" may have been elsewhere. I dont know where you are in the world , but I suspect it will be littleist players in the littleist countries that have been kicked out of the game.

I cant remember when or where I made the suggestion but basically what I said was something like this ...

The price ran up to nearly $80 , part due to seasonal pressures (USA on the road again !) amongst many other things and this killed a lot of the little players off. Then the seasonal pressures , along with all the political things , eg Israels foray into Lebannon etc went away, this caused the price to fall. Because some of the little guys were no longer around the total oil demand may have fallen and hence so did the price.

The price will probably rise as the current users continue to grow their demand. When the next supply crunch comes the prices will again rocket off before knocking more people out of the game. I guess these cycles will be the way of things from now on.

Thats my take on it , though its just a gut feeling , sorry no data or fancy graphs or whatever to back it up.

Paul

[sch_peakoiler]

Maybe you are right, maybe Zimbabwe for instance - could make this littlest man for now. Generally I tend to think it would be Africa.

[DantesPeak]

Outside of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and a few other Mideast OPEC countries, Brunei, and a few smaller exporters, oil exporters must maintain full production to support domestic economies.

But let's concentrate on Russia, which is building up it's trade surplus at a rapid rate. Does it really need to sell oil? It's population has leveled off, and it's internal needs are not growing fast. It seems to be maintaining oil production high as some type of quid pro quo to have political influence in Eurpoe and Asia - plus this keeps open the trade relationships for the natural gas and electricity they need. (It's ironic that Russia needs to import some NG in some parts considering its total NG reserves).

It would seem if Russia was shut out of trade relationships, it wouldn't have a reason to produce so much oil. I suppose Russia's sudden acceptance in the WTO has something to do with this realization.

[kokoda]

The new world order might consist of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and a few middle east countries ... with the rest of the world's economies crashing like a house of cards.

They may start to reduce there oil exports well before peak production in order to secure their own future energy supplies.

[Jack]

Jack I perfectly understand what you mean.

What I meant was rather the lack of the "immediate response" in Peakoil style. Some data speaks in favor of the fact that the peak was in 2005. And various PO-Theories forecast that there will be immediate consequences should the supply start to drop (stopping the growth, for example). One year after peak and nothing of this happened, except for a rise in prices. That is actually what I meant.

I think the rate of reaction is an interesting speculation, but indeterminate. There are lots of areas of the world that, by conventional wisdom, should be regarded as complete failures - breakdown, writ large. Beirut a decade ago...Sarajevo a few years back...Zimbabwe, presently...but somehow, people function at a certain level. In Hiroshima, right after the atomic bomb went off, people and emergency services continued to function after a fashion.

So...to say everything will fail at some specific point is unlikely to be true.

Perhaps it's like going across the event horizon of a large black hole; you can pass the point of no return and not realize it. Your fate is sealed - but you're still alive.

[KevO]

[quote="sch_peakoiler":)

Sorry my sarcasm, but for me this lack of immediate response of markets etc. says one thing : this response will be even more severe afterwards.[/quote]

It will be a huge cliff drop crash anytime soon.
We now have China shadowing US ships, we have (today) Iran releasing footage of US aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, we have Israel threatining Iran - ALL for energy.
What else?
Thank God the $ is still strong

[KevO]

so iraq could push the peak back by a few years but thats only if the forces and government there can get hold of the security situation a

and THAT is what the Iraq war is all about.
It's about Peak Oil - NOTHING ELSE.
That's why the USUK are there and that's why Al Queda have made it their main theatre of operations.
They don't need to attack Washington or New York, they simply need to fuck up the oil grab..and they're clearly winning.

What the US will do now is anyones guess. The war can't be won so they will have to talk, compromise, GIVE.

But essentially it is the aim of Islamic fundamentalists to rid their world of American troops and American influence so we're really in a conundrum coz for Al Q to stop, they state the US has to leave the Middle east but if the US do leave they then have no control of this oil lifeline and Al Q will simply sell all oil to China.

It would have to be done the Chinese way, drip drip drip. Slowly strangle the US until apart from thermonuclear war, there isn't a lot they can do. And that's what happening. Is it not?

The ONLY way the US will win is to give up Oil and all its uses and become hippies.

If only I was joking

[AirlinePilot]

While I dont agree on many fronts with us being in Iraq, I dont believe pulling out now does anyone any good. Is this about Oil? Sure it is.

If you think the US walking away means Al Qeada all of a sudden goes away, than I have some desert real estate for you. It's really cheap!

It's delusional to think this is such a simple problem.