[mcgowanjm]

The above:

By "new" gov't, you mean the one that signed on with
Russia instead of NATO?

[mcgowanjm]

.
@ mcgowanjm , thanks for the links ,
my reading of a speculation bubble seems to not be so bad , a lot of loose money looking for a quick buck , the rush in mob are going to be creamed while the professional traders are sitting tight
so far , here , the Australian harvest is looking very good , if the locusts don't get it .

food is energy !

Hello, Ozzie

Good on ya, mate! I love typing that.

The problem:

ABARE's latest:

Australian wheat exports * Wheat exports in May 2010 increased to 1.4 million tonnes, compared with the 1.1 million tonnes in the previous month. It is typical for the volume of wheat exported in any month to fluctuate relative to the previous month. Increases and decreases can be attributed to various factors such as harvest dates in Australia and other exporting countries, world prices, exchange rates and the private selling and buying decisions of wheat exporters and buyers. * Around 4 million tonnes of wheat was committed for export in May 2010, compared with around 3.5 million tonnes in the previous month. The volume of wheat committed for export in one month is generally greater than actual exports in the proceeding month. * Bulk shipments increased by 382 200 tonnes to around 1.2 million tonnes in May 2010, compared with 852 300 tonnes shipped in April. Wheat shipped in bags and containers increased by around 10 200 tonnes to 209 900 tonnes over the same period. * The largest markets for bulk wheat exports in May 2010 were Indonesia, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea, Yemen and Japan. * Vietnam, China and Chinese Taipei were the largest markets for wheat exported in bags and containers in May 2010.

USDA weekly export sales for wheat 854,600 MT a bit better than the 600,000 to 850,000 MT expected and includes 110,000 MT to Egypt yesterday reply

The US does in a week, almost what Australia takes a month.

And Russia:

Russia 61.747.0
Kazakhstan 17.012.0
Ukraine 20.918.0
Uzbekistan 6.26.3
Others 9.59.4

Total FSU 115.292.7

And you can cut the above in 1/2

Food is Water Exported.

[deMolay]

Once again the USA has to feed the world. The headlines are grim. Locusts attacking the Aussie wheat harvest, Alberta and Sask. southern croplands flooded out. China now facing a RICE shortage. The cows have quit laying eggs and the chickens have quit milking. A US take on the various aspects of world crops, and how hedging by farmers works. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wheat-pr ... d=11342436

[Mesuge]

mcgowanjm> yep, look at the news clipping and statistics from recent decade, Ukraine was "asked" by NATO to drop output of its mil-industrial complex in order to *join the pact, and their arms sales indeed did drop like a stone, even if you adjusted for the effect of financial crisis. Now, that's over with the new genuine leadership, no western implanted gov. shills anymore, so they are slowly crawling back to their rightfull place, into top ten of global arms exporters, mainly focusing on ME/Asia exports.

*a similar tactics wich destroyed the rather advanced arm. industry of Czechoslovakia, and to some extent of Poland and other CEE nations..

So, the bottom line is the Ukraine has got means how to feed itself in the mid term. As last resort they can always sell the wider Crimea region to Russia, which they need for Naval bases hah

[mcgowanjm]

The military is a drain no matter who controls it.

See Jane Jacobs-Cities and the Wealth of Nations:
Civilian $ moves thru the economy 7 times, at least.
Military 3. At most.

And yes, the Ukraine with Khazakstan, Iran, and Turkey
are the 4 Most important Nations in the World now.

And it looks like All Four are going with Russia.

See US/Israel need Coup in Turkey before attacking Iran.

[deMolay]

A little know fact about wheat production in western Canada. Because western wheat producers are forced by law to sell to the CWB a government monopoly, thousands of farmers in the west have taken millions of acres out of wheat production and have been swithching to canola and other crops. http://in.reuters.com/article/idINN1122346720100311

[mcgowanjm]

A little know fact about wheat production in western Canada. Because western wheat producers are forced by law to sell to the CWB a government monopoly, thousands of farmers in the west have taken millions of acres out of wheat production and have been swithching to canola and other crops. http://in.reuters.com/article/idINN1122346720100311

Interesting. I didn't know they were forced to.

But then you've got James Richardson (first time I've heard of that outfit) and Louis Dreyfuss/Mitsui (And I Have heard of them;}.

The question is how does the CWB interface with these Grain Merchants.

In the Meantime:

New York Aug 4 2010
GLOBAL WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED – UN

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (“http://www.fao.org/“FAO) has cut its global wheat production forecast for 2010 due to the impact of poor weather on crops in recent weeks, but allayed fears of a new food crisis, noting that current stocks should be adequate.

The global wheat production forecast is now expected to be 651 million tonnes, down from the 676 million tonnes reported in June, the Rome-based agency said in a “http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/44570/icode/“news release.

And this:

Global Supplies

For U.S. and Canadian farmers, the loss of Latin America’s biggest wheat importer as a market comes as global supplies climb to the highest since 2002, according to the Washington- based U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat futures for July delivery dropped 1 percent to $4.28 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday. Wheat has dropped 32 percent in the past year because of reduced demand and rising stockpiles.

A bumper crop in Argentina, the region’s biggest supplier, “could weaken prices further,” said Ricardo Baccarin, president of Buenos Aires grains brokerage Panagricola Safici.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-1 ... arket.html

The instant you read that, you should've been on the phone buying.

And that's the first I've heard of 676 MMT. I've had 656
MMT.

And fao's now got 651 MMT.
I've got maybe 600 now. With 1/2 of FSU's gone. Maybe.

[mcgowanjm]

So, you want to trade Commodities?

Then first look at the Baltic Dry Index.
It's still in crash Mode, heading to below 1000. From today's
1900.

At 2006, it was 11 000.

Next, nogger. You want Conventional Wisdom,
nogger's the man:

CONCLUSION

Whilst there is certainly some justification in the recent price rally, the fundamentals of supply and demand don't really warrant one of this magnitude. Although there are legitimate concerns over winter wheat planting prospects in Russia this year, European and US farmers will be only too keen to embrace the current price levels with significantly higher sowings. That is exactly what they did for the 2008 harvest which saw EU output up by 26% and US production up by 22%.

Despite London, CBOT and Paris wheat all closing higher on the week, all three actually closed nearer the bottom of the week's trading range than the top.

Is the top already in? That as ever is a difficult one to call, and the funds are certainly likely to have another attempt at sending it higher again. I'm tempted though to say yes, so beware of the "bull trap". Somebody paid GBP169 for November London wheat last week, I guess that could easily fall into the "delusion" category.

http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/

Like I said, Always enter a Volatile Market from the Sell
Side. Like you've got the product.

Second, the Falldown in the Above arguement is:

1) Farmers have acreage to put wheat into. See deMolay's
article on Canola.

2)That Farmers will destroy their crop rotation to put in
more wheat.

[sparky]

.
interesting about the Canadian wheat board ,
we had one called , oh surprise , the Australian wheat board .
the AWB was run by the farmer federation and was not giving any complain but was destroyed for political reasons under U.S. pressure ( something about selling wheat to Irak under Saddan , it was legal but some backhanders were doggy )
now the five world traders are ruling the roost and the farmers are fuming
.

[mcgowanjm]

.
interesting about the Canadian wheat board ,
we had one called , oh surprise , the Australian wheat board .
the AWB was run by the farmer federation and was not giving any complain but was destroyed for political reasons under U.S. pressure ( something about selling wheat to Irak under Saddan , it was legal but some backhanders were doggy )
now the five world traders are ruling the roost and the farmers are fuming
.

Not sure about that, sparky. And I was thinking about the AWB
(note the Brit Commonwealth comparisons here;} when deMolay
mentioned CWB Monopoly.

And when you can't be a consistent supplier, is when you
generally lose your 'roost'. A million tons a month export
is nice, but the US does this in about a week.

I'm still waiting to hear about Australia depleting it's
aquifers to get last year's crop out.

[deMolay]

The CWB is a hot button issue with Western Canadian grain farmers. The way it works, the farmer cannot produce and sell wheat without belonging to the CWB. If he does he will face heavy fines and jail time. It is very inefficient. For example if I was growing Durum Wheat, and had a value added operation on my farm. Such as making noodles. I would still have to haul my wheat to the CWB granaries, offload, weigh, have it graded. Sell it to the CWB, then buy it back and haul it home. Paying for storage, and all services whether I wanted them or not. This is the main reason that western Canadian grain farmers do not as a rule have value added farming. The Durum is sold to the CWB and shipped 3,000 miles to eastern processors and the noodles shipped back west. This is also the reason that farmers are growing non government controlled products like canola, oats etc. Western farmers have removed 12 million acres of land from wheat production, as well as what ever acreage that is flooded out this year. Probably another 15 million acres under water.

[mcgowanjm]

Thank you for that. The Inefficiencies will be wrung out
of the system or the complexities will collapse it.

Right now I'd just classify Canada as a very large US Ag State
with a Bunge size Co oP. And a nice Train System.

Thanx for the info, deMolay.

James

[copious.abundance]

So, you want to trade Commodities?

Then first look at the Baltic Dry Index.
It's still in crash Mode, heading to below 1000. From today's
1900.

I have learned a general rule of thumb: Whatever mcgowanjim says, the opposite is more likely true.

To wit: It appears he hasn't been paying attention to the Baltic Dry Index lately, because it has now risen to 2114 from 1700 just a few weeks ago:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

[deMolay]

Rice yields falling because of warmer night time temperatures. Crop scientists perplexed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10918591

[mcgowanjm]

Rice yields falling because of warmer night time temperatures. Crop scientists perplexed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10918591

Yep. See that 'US corn' doing the same?

The Verdict is in. The Limits to Growth have been overshot.
And the Media keeps putting that "?" behind Global Warming.

20 million will be removed in two years. 100% guarantee.
The Human Pop will have to be reduced by 70 000 000
per year just for stabilization.

Following the Oil Discovery, Production Asymptote
and Fall off. A ten year offset. Quantum Science.

[Pretorian]

Rice yields falling because of warmer night time temperatures. Crop scientists perplexed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10918591

Yep. See that 'US corn' doing the same?

The Verdict is in. The Limits to Growth have been overshot.
And the Media keeps putting that "?" behind Global Warming.

20 million will be removed in two years. 100% guarantee.
The Human Pop will have to be reduced by 70 000 000
per year just for stabilization.

I'm sorry, but no. Not going to happen. Not anytime soon. There are way too much food out there, unfortunately. Way, way too much. And this is not counting acreages under fiber crops, teas, coffee, ets.

[mcgowanjm]

Rice yields falling because of warmer night time temperatures. Crop scientists perplexed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10918591

Yep. See that 'US corn' doing the same?

The Verdict is in. The Limits to Growth have been overshot.
And the Media keeps putting that "?" behind Global Warming.

20 million will be removed in two years. 100% guarantee.
The Human Pop will have to be reduced by 70 000 000
per year just for stabilization.

I'm sorry, but no. Not going to happen. Not anytime soon. There are way too much food out there, unfortunately. Way, way too much. And this is not counting acreages under fiber crops, teas, coffee, ets.

The problem is that the 'way too much food' is of questionable
quality, ministry of info/ag
positive spin' looking for just in time next harvest which is
then dependent on climate/warm nights/early frost rain
and Correct USDA assumptions.

Russia is Epic Fail. Worst temps/soil moisture 1000 years.
Care to wonder the number of pogroms based on failed harvest in the last 1000 years.

And we've been putting our '2nd largest' 'worst harvest ever'
(U Pic Em)into China so our cupboards are bare.

Everything is dependent on Aug/September corn/beans.
And Iowa just had another 100 year flood last nite.
3rd 100 year flood in three years.

[gollum]

In nature, doesen't overshoot happen pretty suddenly?

[sparky]

.
Gollum , overshoot is the way nature regulate , also called the boom and bust equilibrium

on the subject of world grain trading companies , for a bit of background

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs. ... nt&src=tnb

and also

http://sl.farmonline.com.au/news/nation ... 02926.aspx

mcgowanjm ,we just pray for a good rain at germinating time ,
no hot dry winds during the early grow and a bit of moisture when the ears fill up .
wheat is an amazing grass , it grow pretty much on any soil , if one doesn't care about yield
and here we don't worry so much about that , we have the acreage
we don't use aquifer for wheat growing , we call it the artesian basin or bore water . it's used mostly for stock watering .
the main problem for the soil is wind erosion and above all salinity , that is a real bastard of a problem and is due to over irrigation in the Murray basin and cutting down the scrub cover

[mcgowanjm]

So, you want to trade Commodities?

Then first look at the Baltic Dry Index.
It's still in crash Mode, heading to below 1000. From today's
1900.

I have learned a general rule of thumb: Whatever mcgowanjim says, the opposite is more likely true.

To wit: It appears he hasn't been paying attention to the Baltic Dry Index lately, because it has now risen to 2114 from 1700 just a few weeks ago:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

SUPER, OF2. You do that. And be guaranteed to be in the
MAJORITY. Everytime.

Or, you could watch CNBC. Do watever they tell you.
Beleive Everything they say. Especially Cramer.

Now, seriously, back to your analysis of the BDI.
Want to know what a Bull Trap is? You're looking at it.

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/ ... _index.htm

And then go to the CRB Overlay. Note the Two Humps
either side of Jan 1, 2008. That's Cardiac Arrest.

11 000. And now you're looking at the end of a collapsed
dinosaur. Pulsing up to 4200 Jan 2010 and worse, staying there to make a final effort (immense/intense efforts wasted
now gone forever;}

And then a Strait Line crash to 1700, not one jog up.
And then the Bull Trap to 2030. Which is now over BTW.
The BDI doesn't adjust that rapidly, but I know the components that make it up.

Check Frontline, Eagle, DryShips on what they did yesterday.

Down 9%. Say 10 to make it easy. What's 10% of 2000.
That's where the BDI is now.

But you stay with the Majority and CW, OF2. Hold the Line
for Everyone. Be the Hero. Yeah, that's the ticket.

But make sure you're not using margins. That you're completely 1:1 on your trades, or it's:

Mr OF2, you have a call from Mr Margin on Line 1.