yesplease wrote:I think at most we would see about half that, assuming we ended up w/ nothing but 5,000lb SUTs/SUVs for the passenger vehicle fleet. Even if we tossed every single ton-mile of freight at electric rail we would only need ~75,000 1.5MW turbines.
Unfortunately not, mos ... or not yet. I own an IL6 ICE. Love it, but can't wait for the Teslas or similar become popular or affordable, if you will. I really think that's the way to go, especially with all that torque and breaking straight into and from each wheel. Can you imagine how fun it must be? If you buy yours before I do, please promise you'll take me for a spin.mos6507 wrote:Do you?VMarcHart wrote:you don't own an EV
And Spain is 20 smaller than the US, has an electrical network about 20 better, and a no-nonsense government that take matters in hands regardless of re-election outcome. To think we just install a few thousand WTGs and, voila, we're oil independent ... man, it's something I'd give my right nut to see it.isgota wrote:My own country is generating near 11% of electricity demand from wind power, and 3 spanish urban areas are among the most extensive railways networks of the world, but I can guarantee you that we are VERY FAR of oil independence in transport.
VMarcHart wrote:The thing with EVs is that they aren't a live load. You re-charge them when you do, and the wind farms may or may not be spinning at that time.
If we toss all the ton-miles on electric rail, probably. Trucking and rail ran around 3 trillion ton-miles per year as of 2005 in the US.isgota wrote:Just that? 75,000 1.5MW turbines? Well, AWEA's report says that there are already >25,000 wind turbines installed on USA, but they only cover about 1% of the electricity demand. Are you sure that only 3 times more wind power is enough to power all road and rail transport?
Unfortunately reality includes capital costs too, so for some sections of rail electrification may not be economically viable even at $10/gallon (see 80/80 rule in the link below). Just because something is more energy efficient doesn't mean it will be implemented. It's been proposed but considering the difference in energy requirements tossing truck freight on rail would save more than electrifying rail, although they would both save a decent chunk, and have other benefits as well.isgota wrote:Sorry but I have to give you a reality check. My own country is generating near 11% of electricity demand from wind power, and 3 spanish urban areas are among the most extensive railways networks of the world, but I can guarantee you that we are VERY FAR of oil independence in transport.
It's not that it isn't easy strictly speaking, just that it may not be cost effective. It also may simply not be possible for certain applications where energy-density is needed like aviation/shipping/long range travel w/o fueling every couple hundred milesisgota wrote:And actually, I have just seen an electric powered bus once, in a country with so much wind power. It's not so easy to get rid of that black stuff called oil, sadly.
Best.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
That's why wind power is kept at ~20% of grid output according to estimates.VMarcHart wrote:The thing with EVs is that they aren't a live load. You re-charge them when you do, and the wind farms may or may not be spinning at that time. If 300M EVs want to re-charge randomly, you're talking base load. (Please picture an enormous golf resort with hundreds of electric golf carts. A given number of carts will be re-charging regardless of weather conditions.) You either need to offset the NCF with more wind farms and transmit the power across country --which it really doesn't work like that and I'll be honored to explain why--, or you create very fancy and sophisticated energy storage systems, ie, hydrogen, compressed air, hydro deposits, etc, which are in their infancy. My 2 cents.
DOE wrote:Costs of integrating intermittent wind power into the grid are modest. 20 percent wind can be reliably integrated into the grid for less than 0.5 cents per kWh.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
Yesplease, whereas I applaud your fierceful desire to make things better, you have a huge gap between books and trenches. It does not work like that. It's like stating that to avoid heart attacks all studies show you need to exercise 20 minutes a day, yet more and more people are obese and having more and more heart attacks. I'm talking from empirical observations, not from what the books say.yesplease wrote:If this, if that, we could this and we could that, per this study and that estimate.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
Did I already ask how many EVs do you own?yesplease wrote:If you would like to provide a logical and well reasoned piece of info as to why 20% of the grid couldn't power a reasonable EV fleet...
Just like I already asked you how many EVs you owned.VMarcHart wrote:Did I already ask how many EVs do you own?yesplease wrote:If you would like to provide a logical and well reasoned piece of info as to why 20% of the grid couldn't power a reasonable EV fleet...
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
None. I currently own an IL6 ICE. You?yesplease wrote:Just like I already asked you how many EVs you owned. Like I said before, if you're interested in trolling/flaming instead of discussing this reasonably, I'm fine with that too.
What's an IL6? I have a couple ICEs and an EV.VMarcHart wrote:None. I currently own an IL6 ICE. You?
Sure there is. Appeals to authority are common flames.VMarcHart wrote:There's no flaming here. You say it can be done, yet you have not presented any creditials on your know-how --other than links.
You say it'll need way more but you don't say why... According to the DOE we're well beyond the growth rate assumed for 20% wind by 2030.VMarcHart wrote:I say it will need way more, and I'm a professional of the renewable energy industry. Two different opinions. I say if we can substitute 20mbpd with 276K WTGs, that's terrific, but in my professional experience, it's too little.
Wind power is outstripping EV consumption by leaps and bounds right now. The only way we couldn't install enough capacity to cover EVs would be if we stopped putting up turbines cold turkey and every new vehicle was electric, and even then, given the price/design of current offerings, we would have two decade window before EV electricity demand caught up with window power electricity supply.DOE wrote:This capacity addition of 5,244 MW in 2007 exceeds the more conservative growth trajectory developed for the 20% Wind Scenario of about 4,000 MW/year in 2007 and 2008. The wind industry is on track to grow to a size capable of installing 16,000 MW/year, consistent with the latter years in the 20% Wind Scenario, more quickly than the trajectory used for this analysis.
That's a great starting point! Of course, it isn't about where I would install them, but where they are likely to be installed. Like I said before, this isn't my opinion, just DOE facts/estimates. Carrying on, what's the energy consumption per mile of the EVs you're considering?VMarcHart wrote:Let's start with ... where would you install them?
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
In-line 6-cylinder engine. Which EV do you own? Can you send pictures with you in it?yesplease wrote:What's an IL6? I have a couple ICEs and an EV.VMarcHart wrote:None. I currently own an IL6 ICE. You?
I'm appealing to my authority, which I do have, and asking you what you do for a living, which we don't know.yesplease wrote:Sure there is. Appeals to authority are common flames.VMarcHart wrote:There's no flaming here. You say it can be done, yet you have not presented any creditials on your know-how --other than links.
You believe what the Bush admnistration says, like that inflation is at 5%? I don't.yesplease wrote:According to the DOE we're well beyond the growth rate assumed for 20% wind by 2030.
Wind is only produced in certain areas, and you need to transmit across country on a base load basis, which the country does not have infrastructure for, unlike the interstate system. Two strikes against replacing 20mbpd with wind, much less from Kansas.yesplease wrote:You say it can't work, but it's working right now, so I suppose the better question is how won't it work in the future?
You need to answer my question with a concrete answer, not with a question. I want to know if you know where to install them.yesplease wrote:That's a great starting point! Of course, it isn't about where I would install them, but where they are likely to be installed. Like I said before, this isn't my opinion, just DOE facts/estimates.VMarcHart wrote:Let's start with ... where would you install them?
2-4 times more what the vendor is stating. Like we don't know car salesmen.yesplease wrote:Carrying on, what's the energy consumption per mile of the EVs you're considering?
Do you mean an I6 or L6, or do you have some revolutionary new six cylinder engine that's even straighter than an in-line six!VMarcHart wrote:In-line 6-cylinder engine. Which EV do you own? Can you send pictures with you in it?yesplease wrote:What's an IL6? I have a couple ICEs and an EV.VMarcHart wrote:None. I currently own an IL6 ICE. You?
And that's considered flaming. At the very least if you had reasonable estimates regarding EV electricity consumption I might be more inclined to believe that you actually do something for the wind industry, but as it stands all you've shown you are is a troll, or quite possibly one of the nuttiest people to ever work around wind power if you really think we need four times current electricity production for EVs or that the government, business, and private individuals are all conspiring to lie about the energy consumption of EVs while only you know the truth.VMarcHart wrote:I'm appealing to my authority, which I do have, and asking you what you do for a living, which we don't know.yesplease wrote:Sure there is. Appeals to authority are common flames.VMarcHart wrote:There's no flaming here. You say it can be done, yet you have not presented any creditials on your know-how --other than links.
The DOE isn't the Bush administration, in case you haven't noticed. Hell, even if they were, w/ Bush at the helm, somehow the administration has increased the rate of new capacity installed per year past the ramp up needed over 2007/2008 according to the report. Regardless of whether or not you agree w/ the change in accounting for inflation, unless we're installing imaginary wind power we're more than on-track for the 20% by 2030 goal.VMarcHart wrote:You believe what the Bush admnistration says, like that inflation is at 5%? I don't.yesplease wrote:According to the DOE we're well beyond the growth rate assumed for 20% wind by 2030.
It actually doesn't matter much whether or not specific output from a specific site charges an EV or another electricity source does. That's kinda like saying Bakken doesn't increase world oil production because people in China aren't using it. What does matter is if we need however much of an increase in total generation, say 15%, we can do that reliably with wind. Not every kWh into a battery pack has to be from wind, since what it generates can displace plenty of other electricity use, just that we can add enough reliable generation capacity to the grid to offset the increase in overall consumption from EVs. As of now we've added ~20GW and have another ~10GW under construction without a MW of EV demand in sight. The distribution seems to be even baring the south east US which isn't suitable for wind, but given the drop in demand compared to transmission capacity we could likely handle a ~15% increase in load at that time. The SERC and FRCC certainly have the capacity to handle a few percent of demand in terms of energy consumption to charge vehicles off-peak.VMarcHart wrote:Wind is only produced in certain areas, and you need to transmit across country on a base load basis, which the country does not have infrastructure for, unlike the interstate system. Two strikes against replacing 20mbpd with wind, much less from Kansas.yesplease wrote:You say it can't work, but it's working right now, so I suppose the better question is how won't it work in the future?
I didn't answer your question w/ a question. I responded by posting the facts. If you don't like them, and instead choose to believe what you want to believe regardless of what everyone else involved including businesses, government, and individuals have to say, that's fine, but a statement ain't a question.VMarcHart wrote:You need to answer my question with a concrete answer, not with a question. I want to know if you know where to install them.yesplease wrote:That's a great starting point! Of course, it isn't about where I would install them, but where they are likely to be installed. Like I said before, this isn't my opinion, just DOE facts/estimates.VMarcHart wrote:Let's start with ... where would you install them?
So the manufacturers, the DOE, and every single electric car builder are conspiring to lie about EV power consumption, and only you know the true energy consumption which is four times all the electricity we generate now? I suppose we could see as much a ~20-50% swing, but that sure isn't the 1600% difference you mentioned earlier or the 200-400% different you just mentioned. The goal of the RAV-4 EV was 60 miles and it exceeded that for the SAE test while meeting it plus or minus the usual difference via drivers/route in real world applications. An increase of 2-4 times the energy consumption would cut range to a half or a quarter of what was expected, and it certainly hasn't been seen in examples so far. I think SCE would've noticed in the hundreds of thousands of miles they've driven the vehicles if range was actually ~15-30 miles instead of the goal ~60 miles.VMarcHart wrote:2-4 times more what the vendor is stating. Like we don't know car salesmen.yesplease wrote:Carrying on, what's the energy consumption per mile of the EVs you're considering?
It ain't me saying it can be one, it's the DOE, utilities, and vehicle manufacturers both small and large. Those aren't just government facts/estimates. Everyone from home builders to private companies to the government has the same rough figures. You're the only one who has stated we would need to increase current electricity production by a factor of four for EVs that aren't even on the road yet. I guess that you, as a self proclaimed internetz wind power "expert" with all your "field experience" knows more than the DOE, Toyota, GM, etc... Put together.VMarcHart wrote:Once again, Yesplease, if you say it can be done and you do it, the better for me and everybody. I don't see it. I know what it takes to install 1 WTG. I think this thread is pointless. You're stuck in your government statistics, and I have field experience. I don't feel like educating someone who already knows everything.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
IL is the common term, opposite to V, a v-shaped engine, like a V6.yesplease wrote:Do you mean an I6 or L6, or do you have some revolutionary new six cylinder engine that's even straighter than an in-line six!VMarcHart wrote:In-line 6-cylinder engine. Which EV do you own? Can you send pictures with you in it?yesplease wrote:What's an IL6? I have a couple ICEs and an EV.VMarcHart wrote:None. I currently own an IL6 ICE. You?
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
VMarcHart wrote:You win. I lose. You're smart. I'm ignorant. So long.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
Return to Conservation & Efficiency
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests