[kublikhan]

I see you naysayers fell right in line with the Techi-optimist version of low oil prices. The establishment, Oxford included are just paving the way for explaining in the coming weeks and months and even years the low oil prices. So they simply deduce is must be Renewable sources coming online. When in reality these sources STILL are a small fraction of total energy. As always the establishment is trying to stay ahead of the game (propaganda game). They must truly suspect that the Etp is unto something with low oil prices being an important barometer of a disintegrating energy/oil infrastructure.

Actually onlooker, you are the one who posted the techi-optimist version of low oil prices. Not any of the "naysayers". If you actually took the trouble to find out my position on low oil prices, you would find they do not match with the techi-optimist version that you posted. I think it is simply supply and demand fundamentals. Supply grew faster than demand. When you have a large amount of supply but insufficient demand to match prices will fall. Econ 101.

[kublikhan]

You would just end up arguing with yourself.

And of course that is exactly what we ended up with. Perhaps next time you should actually read the article to see what it is saying instead of blindly linking to it because the headline sounded doomy?

[onlooker]

You would just end up arguing with yourself.

And of course that is exactly what we ended up with. Perhaps next time you should actually read the article to see what it is saying instead of blindly linking to it because the headline sounded doomy?

Not blindly. It was a click and bait scheme

[onlooker]

You said it P, unless Central Banks have half a trillion in spare change
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-survive

Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump

[kublikhan]

Plantagenet already addressed that article:

This article is from 2015.

Time has marched on and things have changed.

Do you have an update concerning the current state of the oil industry?

As to his question about the current state of the industry:

Quarterly profits for the oil majors surged in the first quarter as higher oil prices boosted earnings across the board, likely marking a turning point for the world’s largest oil companies. They may not be entirely out of the woods yet, but the first-quarter performances suggest that the majors are on the upswing after nearly three years of mostly red ink.

The oil majors smashed analysts’ expectations, posting the largest first quarter profits in years. The jump in oil prices compared to the first quarter of 2016 is the single largest reason for the improvement—Brent prices averaged $53 per barrel in the first quarter, roughly $20 per barrel more than a year earlier. Higher crude prices lifted all across the industry:

* Royal Dutch Shell: Profits more than doubled to $3.75 billion, up from $1.55 billion a year earlier.
* Statoil: Profits of $1.06 billion, compared to $611 million in earnings in 1Q 2016.
* BP: Replacement cost profit (similar to net income) hit $1.4 billion, compared to a loss of $485 million a year earlier.
* ExxonMobil: Profits more than doubled to $4 billion, up from $1.8 billion in 1Q 2016.
* Chevron: Recorded profits of $2.7 billion in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $785 million a year earlier.
* Total SA: Profits of $2.6 billion, up 56 percent from $1.6 billion a year earlier.
* ConocoPhillips: Profits rose to $800 million, compared to a substantial loss of $1.5 billion in the 1Q 2016.

A few companies have also benefitted from fortuitous timing. After years of hefty spending, a handful of megaprojects have come online, reducing spending needs while also bringing in new sources of cash. Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron are perfect examples of this, both having spent tens of billions on major LNG export projects in Australia, which weighed down their balance sheets for years. Shell’s cash flow from operations jumped to $9.5 billion, ten times higher than the first quarter a year earlier and its highest level in six quarters.

Oil Majors Turn The Corner With First Quarter Profits

The Saudi 2017 budget sees higher oil prices this year lifting oil revenues by 46 percent compared to the 2016 estimates. In a sign that the higher oil prices are helping Saudi budget revenues, reports suggested last week that Saudi Arabia had reinstated perks for civil servants, after revenues for the first quarter turned out higher than expected.

The Saudis are losing market share to Iran and Iraq thanks to the OPEC deal

[Cog]

So the oil companies are back in the black. The refineries are back in the black. And the consumers are reaping the benefits of lowered fuel prices on their end. And the credibility of the ETP model has crashed and burned for the umpteenth time. When will they ever learn its supply and demand and it always will be?

[Observerbrb]

It's supply and demand... of energy, not the black goo called oil.

The last time I saw my car, it was still running on gasoline, not raw crude.

[Cog]

It's supply and demand... of energy, not the black goo called oil.

The last time I saw my car, it was still running on gasoline, not raw crude.

And gasoline is being produced from raw crude and everyone involved in the process is making money. The consumer is still demanding gasoline and getting it for a lower price. Everyone is winning here except the doomers.

[asg70]

This thread is symptomatic of the repetitive whack-a-mole feedback loop that apparently it's been suck in since long before I decided to stop lurking and register. And this seems to be perpetuated almost exclusively via only three posters, Shorty, PStarr, and Onlooker.

It seems like no degree of hoisting of these three upon their own petard is enough to get them to question their epistemic closure.

When one of the moderators of Peakoil.com steps off the sidelines and comes out swinging, you'd think that would be enough to knock someone off their arrogant perch, but no. These three have this attitude like they should be the ones controlling the site and its party line.

I really think the moderators should decide whether it's beneficial to allow these three to stay here, PStarr in particular with this hypocritical pleading for civility while being incredibly rude to anyone and everyone who disagrees with him.

It just seems like there's a genuine ideological fissure here which would be best served by those three going off and setting up their own group someplace and filling it with sycophants than perpetuating this constant endless friction which has no possible resolution other than increasingly virtiolic (and pointless) ad homs.

[ralfy]

Actually onlooker, you are the one who posted the techi-optimist version of low oil prices. Not any of the "naysayers". If you actually took the trouble to find out my position on low oil prices, you would find they do not match with the techi-optimist version that you posted. I think it is simply supply and demand fundamentals. Supply grew faster than demand. When you have a large amount of supply but insufficient demand to match prices will fall. Econ 101.

Oil price soared, but demand did not plummet. Oil price crashed, but demand did not soar.

[Cog]

That is because people have better things to do than drive around in circles just because the price of gasoline is cheap. There are only so many hours in the day to waste fuel. Chicken eggs are 0.79/dozen where I live. Do you think my demand for eggs has doubled because the price is half of what it used to be?

Fuel use has a certain constancy to it. You drive to work everyday no matter what the fuel price is. Or to the store. You aren't going to stop going to work or eating just because the price of fuel is double what it used to be. By the same token you aren't going to drive to work twice as often just because fuel costs are half as much as it was a few years ago.

[EdwinSm]

* Those who are smitten with Hubbert's curve should appreciate the Sigmoid curve

Could Americans here confirm the truth of the graph? The graph is entitled "Spread of products into American Households" and the y-axis is "Percent Ownership" and the graph includes Airplanes and shows that it has reached 100%, where as only about 75% of households own a car. Is it true that every American household owns a plane whereas only 3/4 have a car as the graph seems to show?

[Cog]

All American males work 80 hours a week, are married to super-model wives, have fully funded retirement funds, live in a mansion, and yes we all own airplanes. Did you not know this?


Adoption or ownership, which is also on the Y-axis, means nearly 100% of Americans have adopted air travel, as a mode of travel, at least once in their life. Doesn't mean we all own a plane.

[Observerbrb]

This thread is symptomatic of the repetitive whack-a-mole feedback loop that apparently it's been suck in since long before I decided to stop lurking and register. And this seems to be perpetuated almost exclusively via only three posters, Shorty, PStarr, and Onlooker.


I really think the moderators should decide whether it's beneficial to allow these three to stay here,

Let's say it clearly. As you neither like the truth, nor you are able to counter it with arguments, you resort to the remaining solution: To silence it.

[onlooker]

Let's say it clearly. As you neither like the truth, nor you are able to counter it with arguments, you resort to the remaining solution: To silence it.--- Yep, it is only natural to have disagreements on any site engaging in discussion. As long as people observe the rules of this site, we are afforded our freedom of expression. I commend the moderators especially Tanada for showing leniency to the occasional breach of the rules. I hope we all can continue to engage in civil discussion as required by the rules of this site

[ROCKMAN]

I usually enjoy waking up Sunday morning and digging into peak oil.com with my first cup of coffee. And I come here first and there's no discussion about PO but 9 post over the last 10 hours about who posts what, who shouldn't be allowed to post, who shouldn't post about who shouldn't post, who's wasting time bitching about who's wasting space posting about who shouldn't be posting...whoops...sorry, my bad.

Time to go find a thread worth reading. LOL