[Aaron]

At anything over say $35 a barrel it's pretty difficult to imagine that any producer including OPEC would cut production for any other reason than lack of supply.

It's throwing money away ...

[UncoveringTruths]

I found one article in Bloomberg but it is hard for me to believe it would drop 3% plus based on this:

If they are wrong the effects will be seen on the other side this is dangerous. If they cut oil production and we have sabotage, were caught behind the curve so to say.

[slick50]

Iran, Indonesia and Venezuela will be exempt from production cuts. Indonesia's production peaked in 1991 and is in steady decline, Venezuela has it's peak in 1998, Iran has been on the upswing these past few years. Go figure, not too much of what OPEC says makes sense.

[Permanently_Baffled]

At anything over say $35 a barrel it's pretty difficult to imagine that any producer including OPEC would cut production for any other reason than lack of supply.

It's throwing money away ...

Unless the dollar slide against other currencies is hurting there revenue?

After all

when 1 euro = $1 and $35 a barrel is the same as:

when 1 euro = $1.35 at $48 a barrel.

I think this is why OPEC maybe cooling production**

PB

** -- Either that or you are right and we are on the road to fuckdom!

[MarkL]

..

[nailud]

Markets always do surprising things on a short-term basis. The 200 day moving average of the oil price is currently around $42 and rising, so if it doesn't fall much below that, the uptrend should still be intact. As far as why individual traders are bidding the price lower, perhaps some of them are just finding out that there is some escess capacity TO cut.

[MarkL]

..

[UncoveringTruths]

When the storage tank is running over the rest is just waste. We still don't know what the Saudi's have underground and there not going to tell us. The only OPEC memeber that I can see that has to cut production is the Saudi's however. The production cut is for the House of Saud. All the other producers are at Quota or declining. I am not sure about Kuwait though.

[0mar]

I think the prices are dropping because this is the first bit of good news we have had all year practically for oil production. Investors are chewing this up.

[Aguyoffthedeepend]

Guys....

I have been doing a lot of research on your 'peak oil' doomsday crap.(now that I got your attention) I dropped a load at first....then got my act together and did research on ALL topics relating too. The fact that the whole world has been searched out for oil is yes everyone 'impossible'. The only areas that have been searched out are the easy ones...<---meaning that oil comes out of the ground when you dig a hole for the fence post. Just two days ago in Alberta we found a 'new Major Gas' discovery. (funny how oil and gas prices go higher...oil companies are more inclined to do 'scouting')

Anyhow...without going off the deepend....People might want to do some research on how oil is created. Its funny how 'SURE' we are that its a fossil fuel. Just as sure i assume as those that thought the world was flat.
I just want to make sure that everyone understands how many dinosaurs had to live in a 'small' area like the Saudi Desert to make the amount of OIL that is coming out of the ground. Its not even possible. I understand that there is biotic formations found in the oil. But how does that really prove that oil was created over billions and billions of years by dinosaurs that are so huge that if they were all crammed together in one area they wouldn't be able to survive because of how much food they consume?!
Nutty!

How much do we know about the bottom of the deepesest ocean? In reallity NOTHING...we have hardly even scratched the surface of whats down there.

Now how much do we know about the middle of the earth? Again really nothing as the deepest we have been able to drill down to is something around 12,000meters. Yet we are 100% sure that oil is ONLY produced one way under the earth. I wouldn't discount the USSR's research.

I know you all feel like your eyes have been opened....by this peak oil. but open them wider and question everything... Thats what I did...and I found quite a lot of interesting information that balances out both sides.

Yes...oil will get more expensive as the easy stuff runs out...but I would expect that.

Now the real problem is major terrorist attacks against Saudi interests...thats the only way I can forsee your doomsday to come true.

[Phil]

Will someone please destroy this moron who thinks oil comes from dinosaurs.

People who speak from a position of ignorance really freakin piss me off.

[trespam]

Will someone please destroy this moron who thinks oil comes from dinosaurs.

People who speak from a position of ignorance really freakin piss me off.

I've finally learned my lesson. I'll ignore him instead. It's much more effective.

[Guest]

Agreed. It is pointless going over the arguments that have already been hashed out at length . Simple research by the ignorant one would decribe for example why oil cannot be found deeper than a specific depth etc.

[ohanian]

Markets always do surprising things on a short-term basis. The 200 day moving average of the oil price is currently around $42 and rising, so if it doesn't fall much below that, the uptrend should still be intact. As far as why individual traders are bidding the price lower, perhaps some of them are just finding out that there is some escess capacity TO cut.

Is this infomation (200 day moving average) on a website that we can check? How do we get this information is we wanted to?

[lowem]

This is the site I usually go to :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC

You can play around with the controls to overlap various technical indicators on the same chart, or enter another symbol to look at another stock or index.

Among other things, usually I'll put in the 50dma, 200dma and RSI, these are the more "popular" indicators that people look at.

[0mar]

The way oil is made is probably a combination of both methods.

However, for our purposes, either method takes millions of years to produce any apperciable increase in petroleum reserves. And most exploration teams have a very good idea of where petroleum can form and under what conditions.

We are debating a non-issue. Either theory won't save us, simply because thoes processes happen on geological timespans, not human lifetimes.

[Lurking]

Hasn't anybody considered the possiblity that they are reducing their output next year to hide the fact that they simply cannot maintain the current level of output? (aka Peaking Out) Think about what a tuff time they had this year pumping what they did...

[Lurking]

Hasn't anybody considered the possiblity that they are reducing their output next year to hide the fact that they simply cannot maintain the current level of output? (aka Peaking Out) Think about what a tuff time they had this year pumping what they did...

[Lurking]

Hasn't anybody considered the possiblity that they are reducing their output next year to hide the fact that they simply cannot maintain the current level of output? (aka Peaking Out) Think about what a tuff time they had this year pumping what they did...

[smiley]

As of Friday, 10 Dec. 2004, at 1PM CST oil futures are dropping substantially. Why is this happening when OPEC just announced a production cut? Anyone know? Thanks in advance.

Shannymara. I had to wait to last Friday to be sure but it was "short selling". I'll try to explain that.

Oil is sold in contracts. Last Friday was the end of the January contract. That means that after that day all trading is stopped and all deliveries have to be allocated.

Say the price of oil is $50 today. Now I think that the price is going to decrease this month. You think that it is going to increase. What I can do then is draw up an agreement. I will sell oil to you at $50 and promise to deliver that oil to you at the end of the month. But I don't have any oil. I just gave you an paper I.O.U. Now suppose that I'm right and the price of oil drops to $46. Then I buy some real oil at the end of the month for $46 and give it to you. That would mean that I made a profit of $4 since you payed me $50. This is a very simplistic description of short selling.

On the other hand you can go "long". If I expect the oil price to rise I can buy oil. I don't really need oil but I expect to sell it again at a higher price. However I have to get rid of these contracts before the end of the trading month because otherwise I might end up with a mammoth-tanker in my backyard.

So the end of the trading month is a very important event. Those who went "long" need to get rid of their contracts and those who went "short" need to cover their short positions.

When oil was at $55 too many people were long. These people had to ged rid of their positions and the price dropped to $47 at the end of the trading month. When oil was at $41 too many people were short and they had to cover their positions at the end of the month. This caused the price increase to $46.

So while the price has moved back and forth $15 dollars not much has really happened in market fundamentals the past two months. It just reflects a shift in the expectations of the speculators.