[Tanada]

From what I saw today, the markets believe inflation will be meaningfully higher under Trump.

Bonds don't like inflation. The longer term bonds (which HATE inflation) were by far the most negative.

Also, I noticed things like silver, copper, etc. were up: possibly as a hedge against higher inflation expectations.

Also, short term doesn't mean much. Looks like the Dow had nearly a roughly 1300 point swing from the futures Tuesday night to the close of the market on Wednesday.
...

I have no idea if this higher inflation expectation makes sense. We had lots of new debt under Obama and that didn't seem to cause inflation. Can Trump actually spur stronger economic growth? We don't know if congress will pass anything he proposes. We don't know if his ideas would work, etc.

So long as we continue money printing Inflation is inevitable, possibly even hyper inflation.

As for President Elect Trumps tax plans they are so far as I can tell a milder form of the Reagan plan that set off a boom in USA manufacturing and employment in his first term. People around here have a tendency to forget that even in a stagnant world economy individual countries can experience growth. Note that during the last 10 years China and India have both grown considerably even as the world economy was pretty stagnant.

[SeaGypsy]

Another way to see it is ask what if the money had not been printed, in simple terms, deflation. Take this to it's logical conclusion, the current theory prevailing is that debt numbers are insignificant next to the potential wipe out of a deflationary spiral. Of course when you are gambling in $ trillions, getting the balance is precarious.

[Pops]

"He is proposing tax cuts for the very people he ran against in his campaign," Gleckman said.

like himself, lol
A million a year tax break for each .01%er, and of course no estate tax

$7 trillion deficit increase over 10 years just from tax cuts, because he proposes no spending cuts

the Rs no longer care about deficits, keep up

forgot the link
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/how-trum ... turns.html

[Pops]

The surest way to a recession or depression is if trump starts a global trade war.

We talk all the time here about the end of JIT or some dramatic rise in the cost of shipping. Trump ran on a promise of tariffs and reduced exports (which is what tariffs bring)

Don't argue, that was his unique selling proposition.

POTUS can unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15% and probably make it stick unless congress specifically assed a law to prevent him from doing so.

POTUS can indeed rip up trade agreements unilaterally.

I've been feeling rather curmudgeonly lately, it seems we really have no idea how good we have it, we are still the second largest exporter of good and services and the beneficiary of a huge labor cost differential when we shop walmart.

Too bad we confused the verb tense in trumps speeches, he is the only one who can lead us into a hellhole because he has no clue.

[Revi]

I think this is going to do it, eventually. Obama managed to hold it up for 8 years, and now it's Trump's turn.

Let's see how he does. Can a country which uses as much oil just driving around as the Chinese use for everything actually keep going the way it does? Where is growth going to come from? We waste as much as they do for manufacturing, eating and everything. We borrow trillions to do it. Will Trump be able to hold that together? Will we each get our daily allotment of gasoline, food, etc? We'll see. There is only so far our reserve currency will take us...

It might not be Trump's fault, but he's going to be left holding the bag, unless he can stretch it out another 4 years.

[Tanada]

On the other side of the coin renegotiating trade deals so that they encourage manufacturing inside the borders of the USA is hardly the end of the world. What good does it do the lower income people of the country to have access to Walmart and its cheap goods if they are all only part time workers or unemployed?

Trade deals need to work for more than just the big companies, they need to work for the overwhelming majority or they are a bad deal. The whole point of trade is supposed to be everyone benefits, not just the select few. There is no reason Americans can not build all of the consumer goods Americans consume. The trade deals of the last few decades however have made it in the interest of the big companies to cease manufacturing in the USA and move their operations to foreign soil.

Do you honestly believe that a bicycle company like Schwin is unable to manufacture just enough bikes in the USA to supply the local market while maintaining their big factory in China that supplies the rest of world demand? Yes those American made bikes will be more expensive to the American consumer, but they will also creat jobs inside America for the people who make those bikes, and who operate the diners or lunch trucks that feed those workers, and the school systems that educate those workers children and so on.

The economy is a web like any ecosystem, increase jobs in the USA at any level and it has a ripple effect putting all that money through many hands between the earner and the final deposit in the financial institution. Reducing the imports of Chinese made bikes and increasing the manufacturing of American made bikes is not going to crash the world economy. The same is true of every other manufactured good we consume. Just because we can not compete on labor costs with China does not axiomatically mean we should import all of our manufactured goods from China. That is the weird Globalist world view that has been destroying the blue collar workforce in the USA for going on 50 years now.

[Pops]

Strangely the republicans are taking us in the opposite direction of their vaunted ideal of free trade.

why would the anti tax party institute a regressive tax on consumers that benefits only government coffers?
You can't lift tariffs enough to offset labor differentials.

The problem with manufacturing from the workers standpoint is not ferigners it's automation

None of this makes sense, it is like trump convinced us all to put on blindfolds while he takes us on a ride to his alternate universe

ONLY I...

[Newfie]

Uh, isnt growth BAD for the environment? AGW and all that?

So maybe Trump will be the one who actually does something about climate change. Maybe he will frig up the global trade and finance system, bringing on an early crash, which reduces our footprint significantly thus slowing warming?

Oh the contradictions!

[Tanada]

Just because something does not make sense to me, or to you, does not mean it makes no sense to anyone. I think people who move to the big city are crazy nuts, but from their point of view I am the crazy one.

Economics is a web, every change has ripple effects through the whole system. This is the 'invisible hand' so many people try and downplay.

[Revi]

Do you honestly believe that a bicycle company like Schwin is unable to manufacture just enough bikes in the USA to supply the local market while maintaining their big factory in China that supplies the rest of world demand? Yes those American made bikes will be more expensive to the American consumer, but they will also creat jobs inside America for the people who make those bikes, and who operate the diners or lunch trucks that feed those workers, and the school systems that educate those workers children and so on.

Who do you think is going to ride those bikes? Do you see a lot of workers going off to their jobs with a lunch pail any more? Us Americans don't ride them. Even kids don't ride bikes as much as they used to. Count the number of bikes chained up outside the schools. Not many any more. It would be nice, but as a culture we have lost that ability.

I have a feeling we are all going to have to learn it again, and soon. Maybe it will be good to have a bike factory back in the US...

[GHung]

Just because something does not make sense to me, or to you, does not mean it makes no sense to anyone. I think people who move to the big city are crazy nuts, but from their point of view I am the crazy one.

Economics is a web, every change has ripple effects through the whole system. This is the 'invisible hand' so many people try and downplay.

Society is a web, and the economy is a subset of that web.. In our society, checks and balances limit reverberations throughout the web, and now that checks and balances are being subverted - conservative Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches, along with a majority of conservative state governments - those reverberations will be more extreme,, for good or bad. Historically, that generally doesn't work out so well for a segment of the population. (Using the term "conservative" loosely here.)

In a sense, a healthy society marginalises every group.

[Pops]

GW is a Chinese hoax Newf

--

I think people who move to the big city are crazy nuts, but from their point of view I am the crazy one.

no doubt! I'm feeling pretty crowded

--
The fact is, there are fewer low skill manual labor jobs and the trend will continue. This is the same in the country but worse because people and entities to even hire day labor are few and far between - and my experience is the pay and living conditions are simply too meagre for angelos.

The trend for a couple of centuries now is toward the city and the move is about complete. The only people left in the country are those who can afford to live there either via commute or savings or old and infirm who are stuck. Big lux pickups and good roads mean even lots of farmers live in town and commute.

Oops sorry, wrong thread, lol

[evilgenius]

Just because something does not make sense to me, or to you, does not mean it makes no sense to anyone. I think people who move to the big city are crazy nuts, but from their point of view I am the crazy one.

Economics is a web, every change has ripple effects through the whole system. This is the 'invisible hand' so many people try and downplay.

Society is a web, and the economy is a subset of that web.. In our society, checks and balances limit reverberations throughout the web, and now that checks and balances are being subverted - conservative Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches, along with a majority of conservative state governments - those reverberations will be more extreme,, for good or bad. Historically, that generally doesn't work out so well for a segment of the population. (Using the term "conservative" loosely here.)

In a sense, a healthy society marginalises every group.

Right on. The slower term crash isn't necessarily an economic one. They will come for the "liberals." When their sh*t doesn't work they are going to have to blame somebody. People have this way of not internalizing lessons about the failure of their hubris. I personally knew quite a few people who took out loans they knew they couldn't pay back, and thought that their house's appreciation would take care of that. Most of them switched to blaming some world-wide cabal for their problems, or the bankers. Cog would say that they made a decision, and now have to live with it, assuming he stuck to his guns.

It's funny, society, culture, civilization are about each member not being everything that every single player in the system engages in to one's self. It makes no sense to recreate the wheel every time you need one. Self-sufficiency at some level that ensures enough redundancy to function under changing circumstances aside, what we do in a civilized society is play roles. We have to respect each other to pull that off. We have to communicate. This whole thing is set up like a bad marriage, where there is no real respect, except for the preconceived ideas of what each other person should be according to the wishes of the observer, and no real communication, except where its absence is used as a weapon. Marriages like that usually end up in divorce, or worse.

[evilgenius]

I shouldn't imply that Trump will come for the "liberals" first. That honor will go to those in his own party who don't cooperate. He'll turn his supporters loose on those whom he can eliminate by introducing alternative candidates, yes men, in the next primaries. For most seats in the House those people won't have to worry about getting beaten by a Democrat.

Oh, and somewhere along the line there will most likely be a purge at the Pentagon, of anyone in a position of power who opposes torture. At least that will be the stated reason.

[EdwinSm]

[sorry if this is not the correct thread, but it fits in the discussion on trade tariffs and bring the jobs back home]

While I believe the the changes Trump wants will encourage some manufacturing to return to the USA, can that bring sufficient manufacturing jobs back?

With the increased automation of industry, any factory restarting in western countries will likely be with the minimum of jobs. So while I accept that jobs have been lost to relocation, I wonder if this has been used (in the political arena) to mask all the manufacturing jobs lost to automation.

This area of manufacturing jobs creation is one area where I feel that the new administration will fail to meet the expectations of those who voted for them. Although I am sure any returning factory will be loudly publicised, while other losses will be down played.

[Pops]

So maybe Trump will be the one who actually does something about climate change.
!

Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... ransition/

did no one actually listen to his words?

[Cog]

Elections have consequences----Obama

[Cog]

Strangely the republicans are taking us in the opposite direction of their vaunted ideal of free trade.

why would the anti tax party institute a regressive tax on consumers that benefits only government coffers?
You can't lift tariffs enough to offset labor differentials.

The problem with manufacturing from the workers standpoint is not ferigners it's automation

None of this makes sense, it is like trump convinced us all to put on blindfolds while he takes us on a ride to his alternate universe

ONLY I...

Don't worry Pops. Depends are made in the USA and you won't see a price rise.

[Pops]

No doubt trump will be the protector of the little guy - snort.
the next crash will be a doozie!

Donald Trump’s Transition Team: We Will ‘Dismantle’ Dodd-Frank
GOP eager to make litany of changes that until recently stood little chance of avoiding President Barack Obama’s veto
(wsj-subscription)

[Tanada]

The next crash will be a doozy no matter who is in charge. Not that long ago we all agreed that the QE money printing schemes begun under President George Bush in 2008 would eventually pop and whoever was left holding the bag would get odour all over themselves.

How things turn out is mostly the luck of the draw, I lost my house under the Administration of President Obama, but I do not try and place all the blame on him. Chit happens, ya know what I mean?