[Plantagenet]

It's the roller coaster that makes the recession, not the high [oil] price.

You are welcome to blame the upcoming recession on a roller coaster if you like. That explanation is a lot more fun then my explanation, which is pretty much a conventional mainstream economics explanation.

Personally, I'm going to stick with what I see happening right now in the USA ....I see high oil prices and high inflation that took off on Biden's watch .....I see these things have all kinds of bad effects on the economy. For instance, the inflation in gas prices and other things is triggering the FED into raising interest rates in an attempt to force inflation back down.....which is collapsing the stock market and hurting other parts of the economy......which almost always leads to a recession. Some say the FED actually WANTS to trigger off a recession in order to cool down inflation. And thats all going on right now out in the real world ...... YOU can watch it happening step by step every day if you follow the news.

And I see these things fit Colin Campbell's model for peak oil which is multiple boom and bust cycles in the economy, with the busts caused by spikes in oil prices when the supply gets tight, followed by recession when oil demand drops, followed by another cycle of growth followed by another bust...etc. etc. until there isn't enough oil to keep it all going. Hopefully we'll have switched over to nuclear energy or something when we get to that point, but I don't really see that happening anywhere in the world.

But if only it was really was a roller coaster......that would be so cool!!


Recession.....Wheeeeee!........down DOWN D O W N ..... here we COME!!!!!

Cheers!

[AdamB]

And I see these things fit Colin Campbell's model for peak oil which is multiple boom and bust cycles in the economy, with the busts caused by spikes in oil prices when the supply gets tight, followed by recession when oil demand drops, followed by another cycle of growth followed by another bust...etc. etc.

and that was all happening back in 1990 at 60 mmbbl/d global supply when Colin claimed global peak oil? Wow...must have missed it........

[C8]

My guess is that if oil supply declines, the government is most likely going to step in with some form of rationing scheme. This will produce a situation where gas stations will have some periods of time where they are out of gas. People will probably keep personal storage containers at their homes to cover the outages.

It seems like whenever there is a crisis, there is a call for the government to step in and take more control over the markets. I'm not saying that this necessarily will happen soon, but if it does happen, I think the price mechanism will be muted by government control over supply- this will be presented as a way of helping the underprivileged.

High prices would produce more investment and more oil production- but climate change activists would not want that to happen. I am, of course, assuming Democratic Party control of the govt. The traditional views about how Peak Oil will play out could be altered substantially by govt. control.

[Pops]

What Peak Oil Could Look Like?
Right now?



Clues:
High energy price drives inflation.
High energy price crimps JIT (or what's left)
People become more violent, spiteful and deluded.
People look for politicians and political opponents to punish.
Authoritarian politicians and wannabe push the envelope, to cheers.
Countries line up for resource war. (Look up peter zeihan on youtube or the library)
Increasingly energy inefficient stopgaps are attempted (LNG, food-as-fuel, CTL, SAGD, fracking, etc)
Nationalism erupts behind mass migration, economic stagnation and plutocracy.
Labor participation falls (now lowest since Mom went to work in '74)
Money bet on a Jetson's future evaporates (NFTs? LOL).
Globalisation reverses.
Democracy withers.
The End.

PO probably isn't past, too much on the sidelines to say that, but it is obviously close. The world is set for a “turbulent period” because spare energy production capacity is running “very low,” says Shell CEO. Russian oil minister said they past peak in 2019, MBZ is rumored to have said KSA is nearly maxed out now along with 8 OPEC states in obvious decline, Permian DUCs are what has brought the US back this far but they're going fast — drilling there is all that will grow our total.

Lots of other things going on but such is exactly how I've always expected PO to present initially, lots of happy/angry hand-waving rather than facing the situation head on. Everyone will be tending to their own priorities and "selling their own book" sorta speak—and those will be the smart ones. It is more apparent than ever that a good portion of the human race has really not checked in to reality in some time so expecting or predicting any rational reaction is bound to be disappointing.

I'm much less optimistic than I've been in the past and I was pretty much a doomer on odd numbered days and weekends even then. Not that there won't be any survivors, merely that the odds of picking a good route are falling rapidly
.

[JuanP]

It is more apparent than ever that a good portion of the human race has really not checked in to reality in some time so expecting or predicting any rational reaction is bound to be disappointing.

I'm much less optimistic than I've been in the past and I was pretty much a doomer on odd numbered days and weekends even then. Not that there won't be any survivors, merely that the odds of picking a good route are falling rapidly.

You got that right!

[AdamB]

What Peak Oil Could Look Like?
Right now?

More like "what 4 years after peak oil looks like".

Clues:
High energy price drives inflation.
High energy price crimps JIT (or what's left)
People become more violent, spiteful and deluded.
People look for politicians and political opponents to punish.
Authoritarian politicians and wannabe push the envelope, to cheers.
Countries line up for resource war. (Look up peter zeihan on youtube or the library)
Increasingly energy inefficient stopgaps are attempted (LNG, food-as-fuel, CTL, SAGD, fracking, etc)
Nationalism erupts behind mass migration, economic stagnation and plutocracy.
Labor participation falls (now lowest since Mom went to work in '74)
Money bet on a Jetson's future evaporates (NFTs? LOL).
Globalisation reverses.
Democracy withers.
The End.

No clues are necessary, and all of your clues have happened before, so peak oil isn't any more a requirement of them happening than the other times they did.

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018. Everything since then, current events wise, has been happening in a peak oil world. Happiness prior to Covid, Covid, resulting Covid effects and wars, sedition at the highest levels of the US government and authoritarian rulers doing what they have always done (like crappy economics or idiot leaders) have always been around. No need to make up fantasy land origin stories for them.

[C8]

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018.

Your saying we've already passed peak?

[JuanP]

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018.

Your saying we've already passed peak?

That is definitely possible, but we won't know for sure for some time.

[jato0072]

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but when I think of what "Peak Oil" could look like, I think of declining global oil production. IMHO we have been on a production plateau since 2018, which is stressing the global economic system due to lack of real growth (as opposed to "creative accounting").

The fun really starts in the decline phase, which has yet to be seen. When global coal and global natural gas production also peak and decline, things will get even worse for modern industrial civilization. See Olduvai Theory

My WAG:
Peak Oil decline this decade.
Peak coal and natural gas???

[jato0072]

all of your clues have happened before

I totally agree. It just hasn't happened at this scale before (8 billion humans).

From an individual perspective, our ancestors at one time or another have all experienced near starvation, wars, famine, declining empires, economic collapse, resource depletion, etc. History does not repeat, but it rhymes.

[AdamB]

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018.

Your saying we've already passed peak?

I'm not saying it. The data is. The highest global oil production rate was 2018, somewhere late in the year if I recall the data correctly.

Goodness, just because there were 5 earlier ones claimed or happened this century, you aren't suggesting there could be MORE!!!????

[AdamB]

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018.

Your saying we've already passed peak?

That is definitely possible, but we won't know for sure for some time.

Agreed. Some of the peaks Hubbert referenced as proof of concept in 1956 (Ohio springs to mind) took nearly a century to go down, come back up and repeak. The US took like half a century after the 1970 or so peak, to...wait for it...do it again! The world required 15 years after the global peak in 1979 to finally make another peak back in the mid to late 90's. And this was all BEFORE the current century and its 6 claimed or actual peaks.

So I figure we just wait around these kind of time scales, and maybe, just maybe, our grandkids will know for sure!!

[jato0072]

Bitcoin peaked twice. Could there be a third? Who knows. I wouldn't bet my money on it.

There could be multiple peaks to oil production both on the way up and on the way down.

[AdamB]

The fun really starts in the decline phase, which has yet to be seen.

Not for any of the peaks THIS century, no. But we had a decent decline phase after the 1979 global peak, and all we humans got out of it was the Roaring 80's.....and later.....MORE oil production.

My WAG:
Peak Oil decline this decade.
Peak coal and natural gas???

Hey, a WAG is all the PhD's and chuckle head McPeaksters have been able to do, and got it wrong anyway. Nothing wrong with everyone else having the same opportunity. Some Happy McPeaksters have damn near made career out of it.

[C8]

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018.

Your saying we've already passed peak?

I'm not saying it. The data is. The highest global oil production rate was 2018, somewhere late in the year if I recall the data correctly.

Goodness, just because there were 5 earlier ones claimed or happened this century, you aren't suggesting there could be MORE!!!????

Everything I'm reading is saying that oil supplies will be tight for the foreseeable future due to previous lack of investment and rising demand. The "experts" are saying that oil prices will not come down greatly,even if there is a recession.

The people that frack wells have the ability to re-frack them and apparently this is what they are doing and getting more oil out of them (40% of original flow). Plus, there are new wells being drilled.

Given the fact that world oil prices will be pretty good for producers the next two years, would you say that if the US cannot increase production over the previous peak, within the next two years, that we have passed the final peak? There seems to be a lot of incentive now.

[Pops]

What Peak Oil Could Look Like?
Right now?

Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. .

So I take it your current dismissal argument is we've peaked and you feel fine?

As has been flogged ad finitum by you, there have been multiple maxima over the years. That there was one in 2018 due to a pandemic, then a US shareholder refusal to continue pouring money down fracked holes, now a war, doesn't make that PO.

Not that it isn't, no reason peak should happen right out in the open, but who knows? Conventional oil is said to have peaked sometime in the oughts but we had some great motoring in the teens.

But Russia has said they've peaked, MBS said they're maxed, Devon, Pioneer, Continental have all shown and said they're shooting DUCs rather than investing in drilling.

...have always been around. No need to make up fantasy land origin stories for them.

LOL, it is your fantasy, the question was what could peak look like and I answered with some things we can all easily relate to. Sorry you didn't get what you expected, get used to it.

[JuanP]

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but when I think of what "Peak Oil" could look like, I think of declining global oil production. IMHO we have been on a production plateau since 2018, which is stressing the global economic system due to lack of real growth (as opposed to "creative accounting").

The fun really starts in the decline phase, which has yet to be seen...

Yes, IMO, we are on what I refer to as the "undulating plateau". So far, the absolute highest production point was in 2018. I wouldn't be comfortable calling a peak until we've had a couple of decades of high prices and increasingly declining production. It is possible, even probable, that Peak Oil was in 2018, But I absolutely can't be certain about it, and I don't believe anyone else can either.

[AdamB]

Your saying we've already passed peak?

I'm not saying it. The data is. The highest global oil production rate was 2018, somewhere late in the year if I recall the data correctly.

Goodness, just because there were 5 earlier ones claimed or happened this century, you aren't suggesting there could be MORE!!!????

Everything I'm reading is saying that oil supplies will be tight for the foreseeable future due to previous lack of investment and rising demand. The "experts" are saying that oil prices will not come down greatly,even if there is a recession.

Completely reasonable observations and claims. And anyone building a peak oil model would need to include the timing of those capital investments, lag to new production, size of new production, in order to account for these completely predictable economic mechanisms.

The people that frack wells have the ability to re-frack them and apparently this is what they are doing and getting more oil out of them (40% of original flow). Plus, there are new wells being drilled.

The people who frack wells can't do a damn thing with the well because they don't own it, the E&P owns it, and decides when to drill, complete and recomplete. And of course new wells are being drilled. Just not at the rate that could replace OPEC refusing, or unable, to bring spare capacity online to alleviate price pressures. Don't worry, the solution to high oil prices is built right into the problem, just as it was during the 2011-2015 time period. There is ZERO requirement that an industry that requires plenty of CapX investment lead time can accelerate the process to make the common consumer...or markets....happy.

Was anyone happy with oil prices 2011-2015? Nope. Whining, moaning, OPEC would have LOVED to keep the prices high from 2015 right until now. But unfortunately for them, the new oil supply showed up in a free market economy as opposed to one where production is controlled by a NOC, and presto....the cure to high oil prices revealed itself once again.

Given the fact that world oil prices will be pretty good for producers the next two years, would you say that if the US cannot increase production over the previous peak, within the next two years, that we have passed the final peak? There seems to be a lot of incentive now.

The US can increase its oil (and gas) peak over previous highs. However, the US isn't an NOC, Biden for all his whining can't produce a single barrel more by bitching like any other oil ignorant twit, there are hundreds of companies making that decision, day by day. They are drowning in cash, what do they do? You are correct, high prices are plenty of incentive. To pay down debt. Buy back shares. Up the dividend. And maybe drill a new well or two. As opposed to 5. Or 10.

The data says exactly what the WSJ recently wrote up....producers are happy just treading water in terms of overall production rates. Drill enough to replace natural decline, enjoy the high prices, kick back and enjoy easy street for awhile. It isn't their job to do anything for bitching consumers or politicians. But their shareholders...well....those folks they pay attention to.

[C8]

The data says exactly what the WSJ recently wrote up....producers are happy just treading water in terms of overall production rates.

But why are they happy with this? Isn't the goal of any business growth?

[AdamB]

The data says exactly what the WSJ recently wrote up....producers are happy just treading water in terms of overall production rates.

But why are they happy with this? Isn't the goal of any business growth?

They are happy when the shareholders are happy. The operational folks, the real oilmen (and women) are drillers and producers. They want to drill, and complete, and produce, and keep doing that until they die. It is the office pukes who decide what the CapX budget will be for the following year, and office pukes live and die by their relationship with the real owners of the company, those who own the stock and have seats on the board.

And no, for E&P's it isn't necessarily about growth. It certainly was in the recent past, but once upon a time there were folks like me, bootstrapping along at from the early 1980's through 2000, living within $20/bbl and $2/mcf and we were just fine with our "staying alive, staying alive, oh oh oh oh stayin' alive!!" business model. And if you recall, that wasn't about US oil growth at all.