[Robert Espy]

Regarding peak oil, I'm wondering if anyone has thoughts not about what happens to us (me, me, always me) but instead about what happens to the oil producing nations. Go ahead and pick one.

Oh, alright, I'll do it for you. Saudi Araba. Pretend that they peaked five years ago and have been frantically faking it every since. It's not like we'd automatically know. They lie about their current reserves because that's pretty much what OPEC requires of them. So, what happens when they can no longer pump it at a profit. Ref: Texas but with a dictatorial twist. They haven't exactly been the planning and productive ant of fable. They are the quintessential grasshopper.

Or am I mistaken?

[Kenny]

They're already a debtor nation, and their population is growing much faster than it should. Some of the peak oil sites talk about the possibility of Saudi's domestic energy requirements rising so fast that they might be unable to export oil within 15 years. On the other hand, you'd think the Saudi ruling families would start killing off their own population before they'd stop exporting oil. I don't know about that but I am sure that the population explosion there is already starting to destabilize the regime.

[_sluimers_]

Well this certainly is an interesting topic.

What would happen to Saudi-Arabia after the peak?
to Iraq?
to Nigeria?
to Russia?
to China?
to Venezuela?

I'm no expert, but here are my guesses for 2010 or so:

Saudi-Arabia

Once Saudi-Arabia announces that it can no longer supply the world's needs, prices of oil will go up since there won't be anyone left with spare capacity. This will make Saudi-Arabia extremely rich again and be able to repay it's debts made in the 80's. It will also begin to produce gas to supply the EU and the USA

Iraq

Destabilizes even more than it is now. Terrorists and rebels will find it easier to attack american and other coalition troops. After all, occupying a country halfway around the world and supplying 100.000+ soldiers with food, water and weapons does cost a lot of oil and will be a lot harder when the oil peak and more importantly, the NA gas peak hits. US troops will grow to 150.000 soldiers there to secure the growing number of oil fields and colonized sites.

Nigeria

Stays poor for the simple reason that their dictators and oil big wigs don't lower taxes when they make a better profit out of oil unlike Saudi Arabia. Some clashes will occur, but no war.

Venezuela

Chavez will win the election somehow and be called a hero after the oil peak. He made Venezuela rich and his opposition completely dissappeared by his brilliance. It will have nothing to do with the U.S. stop supporting the opposition through fear of oil disruptions of course.

Russia

Will destroy Yukos. Will benefit most from the oil peak. Putin, or a new leader will spend it's huge profits to secure oil fields in the mideast.

China

Will spend a lot money on the military because of a even more aggressive U.S. that has increased it's military spendings, exceeding 15% of GDP.
Sees it's military power growing and starts thinking of building it's own national missile defense and making a plan to encircle it's naval fleet around Taiwan.

Iran

No idea but they will have the bomb in order not to get invaded by foreign forces.

North Korea

Nothing really. Not having any oil themselves and being sanctioned from importing oil from other nations, they will keep trying to bribe countries with nukes in order to get their fair share of oil. So they have a couple of H-bombs now to bribe with, capable of reaching Chicago.

Cuba

Stays poor. Will strengthen it's ties with venezuela.

Israel

Succesfully assimilated most Palestinians and will invade a small arab country (Syria, Egypt or Lebanon) to ensure their oil and water supply.
Will be under heavy attack by terrorists because of this.

Syria

Will probably be under attack by Israel and of course be occupied, but resistance will be very fierce and tens of thousands will die on both sides.

[gg3]

Saudi: When the Saudis start installing nuclear or solar on a sizeable scale (do they have wind resource?), that's a sign that they are considering the tradeoff between exports and domestic consumption. My bet is that they attempt to replace some of their own consumption with alternatives, in order to maintain export revenues as long as possible. Meanwhile, extremist elements will be agitating among the overpopulated underclass. This may lead to a "regime change" in a direction that's unfavorable to Western interests, e.g. shifts export priorities in some way.

Nigeria: Is toast (USA metaphor for "is a nearly total loss"). At this very moment they are dealing with a polio outbreak because extremist Muslim factions in certain provinces wouldn't carry out vaccination campaigns, due to rumors that the vaccine impaired male fertility. They have since begun importing vaccine made in other Muslim countries, which is purpored to be "safe." The point of this is, that kind of medieval superstition is not consistent with the ability to survive prolonged crisis periods. Also, a culture in which it is said that "larceny is the national pastime" (have you ever gotten "Nigerian Letter" or "419 scam" email?) is not conducive to the kind of efforts needed to achieve an economic transition in crisis conditions. Look for repeated coups and low-level civil war, and impaired oil production as a result.

Cuba: Stays poor but sustains. Cuba is already effectively post-peak due to lack of oil after the Soviet empire collapsed, so nothing much will change there. A new nominally communist leader arises under Castro's banner and things continue as they are now. Cuba's actually a pretty interesting case: Although it's a poor country, its people are secure in having the basic necessities, and the disparity in wealth between top and bottom is not significant enough to provoke social unrest (as a result, the regime can afford to be only moderately repressive, and most Cubans actually support the government). So it's likely that Cuba can sustain this mode of operation long-term, and even benefit from exporting some of its technical solutions to other poor countries.

North Korea: Collapses but for other reasons. Kim Jong-il is starving the people to death, and unlike Castro's relatively benign form of communism, the North Korean regime is a truly malevolent, malignant, soul-killing, mind-numbing, hope-destroying, nation-ravaging regime of a type that fully lives up to the Western stereotype of evil communism at its unbearable worst. If you want to see just how bad it is, go look up the official website of the regime, which is hosted in Japan and available in English. Read until you can't take it any more, and imagine what it must be like to live there. Something has to give, it can't last, and it's already imploding slowly.

China: Will engage in subtle diplomacy and military alliance-building in order to secure continued access to oil. Will also be the US' most significant competitor in the oil market. The regime will last, and for the vast majority of Chinese people, life won't change much. Probability of military adventures such as an invasion of Taiwan while the US is distracted elsewhere. Probability of other opportunistic moves. Will probably import technology for wind turbines and then become a major producer of these, along with nuclear reactors, for the world market. Will not be so concerned with Western issues about nuclear weapons nonproliferation.

Iran: Do not underestimate Iran. Any regime that is capable of organizing a successful spying/disinformation campaign against the US at the level they did (lookup: Chalabi) is clearly one to watch out for. Probably they will develop an atomic bomb, but they will also use their nuclear reactors to actually produce power to supplement declining oil supplies. Unlike Saudi, Iran seems to be culture with enough self-discipline -and the capacity to absorb elements that in Saudi would be destabilizing- to be able to avoid civil unrest and violent regime changes. Will probably be capable of cutting domestic oil consumption to maintain exports. Will probably become the pre-eminent Islamic power in the region. If Saudi is the grasshopper, Iran is the ant.

Other: I'm not sufficiently informed about many of the others to be able to draw out credible scenarios.