[BabyPeanut]

I keep reading that oil might go back down to $20/barrel due to new fields coming on line but I don't know exactly what or where these fields are. Can someone help me?

[NevadaGhosts]

I keep reading that oil might go back down to $20/barrel due to new fields coming on line but I don't know exactly what or where these fields are. Can someone help me?

I seriously doubt we will ever see $20 for a barrel of oil ever again. New oil fields are coming online, but remember the depletion rates of all of the existing fields. The new fields that will come online in the future cannot replace accelerating depletion from existing fields. Less and less cheap oil will be available in the near future. That is a fact.

[skiwi]

I keep reading that oil might go back down to $20/barrel due to new fields coming on line but I don't know exactly what or where these fields are. Can someone help me?

I seriously doubt we will ever see $20 for a barrel of oil ever again. New oil fields are coming online, but remember the depletion rates of all of the existing fields. The new fields that will come online in the future cannot replace accelerating depletion from existing fields. Less and less cheap oil is becoming available. That is a fact.

I posted this in another thread but it seems relevant to post again
Can't help you on where the extra oilfields are coming from though

Oil target price 'heading higher'

OPEC's target price band for oil of $US22-$US28 a barrel was effectively dead and $US32-$US35 would "be a good price", OPEC president and Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said today...

[Guest]

20 bucks a barrell happened in the dayz when the third world was the third world. Today....that ain't the case and there's more piggies lined up at the trough...do ur maths.

[MikeB]

Pnut:

I keep reading that oil might go back down to $20/barrel due to new fields coming on line but I don't know exactly what or where these fields are. Can someone help me?

I know what you're talking about, and I looked quickly but couldn't find it. There's an article that says like eleven fields are coming on line 2005, then that number decreases until by 2008 there are NO new fields coming on line. And remember that in 2003 there were NO significant new discoveries (over 500,000,000 barrels).

[MikeB]

Aha! Try this ...
http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Simmons_02-1.pdf
Leave it to Mr Simmons...

[BabyPeanut]

Thanks Mike!

[BabyPeanut]

Only a handful of deepwater projects are now under development whose peak production will get close to 250,000 barrels per day. Two or three recent onshore Middle East discoveries apparently have multibillion barrels of probable reserves. But none are close to development. So far, none seem to have the capacity to produce more than 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day and would only reach this level by 2010 at the earliest. The lengthy elapsed time since the discovery of most of our world's really large fields argues that most new fields will be relatively small daily producers.

So this is it? Doesn't seems like there will be $20/barrel oil if this is all there is.

[BabyPeanut]

Only a handful of deepwater projects are now under development whose peak production will get close to 250,000 barrels per day.

http://www.total.com/en/group/activitie ... no_884.htm

Discovered in 1990
...
located 30 kilometers offshore southern Nigeria, in a water depth of 40 meters
...
in Phase 2, starting in 2006
...
Key Facts

• Peak production: 125,000 barrels per day
• Field life: 25 to 30 years
• 34 wells of 4,000 to 6,800 meters
• 5 platforms interconnected by walkways and one stand-alone platform
• 2.4-million-barrel FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading)
• More than 100 kilometers of pipeline
• High-pressure water and gas reinjection
• Combats the greenhouse effect by reusing the gas and eliminating flaring between 2005 and 2008
• Total investment: Around $2 billion

Wait a minute they say "25 to 30 year field life". If you start counting from the 1990 discovery date you get 2015 to 2040, yet phase two begins in 2006.

Oh, in this case phase 1 is gas re-injection and phase 2 is water injection, the gas goes off to be produced. How does this improve greenhouse effects when the gas is burned anyway, just later?

[BabyPeanut]

http://asponews.org/HTML/Newsletter50.html#C487

It is understood from preliminary estimates that the total world discovery of oil in 2004 was about 7 Gb, of which perhaps 2 Gb were in deepwater finds. Less than half was found in fields with reserves of greater than 100 Mb. Furthermore, the cost of exploration has been exceeding the net present value of the discoveries in absolute terms.

So 7 Gb found and how many burned up?