Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Wet Bulb Temp Near Deadly 35 C

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 20 May 2016, 15:58:28

So I guess we're about to start seeing WBT's above the deadly 35 C that we've been talking about. When I first heard of this, I really though that this was a very remote and unlikely thing to see on this planet, certainly not for many decades to centuries.

But here we are on the threshold of seeing these deadly temps, probaably for the first time on the planet since before modern humans evolve, if not much much longer.

And it's only 2016.

One wonders and shudders at what the future, even the near-term future, has in store.

Wet Bulb Near 35 C — Heatwave Mass Casualties Strike India Amidst Never-Before-Seen High Temperatures

Never-before-seen high temperatures and high humidity are resulting in thousands of heat injuries and hundreds of heat deaths across India. In some places, wet bulb readings appear to be approaching 35 C — a level of latent heat never endured by humans before fossil fuel burning forced global temperatures to rapidly warm. A reading widely-recognized as the limit of human physical endurance and one whose more frequent excession would commit the human race to enduring an increasing number of episodes of killing heat. A boundary that scientists like Dr. James Hansen warned would be exceeded if a human-forced warming of the world was not halted...

Surat weather services reported periods when temperatures spiked to 38-42 C and humidity — supplied by moisture flooding off the heating Arabian Sea — remained near 65 percent. These are wet bulb readings in the range of 32 to 34.4 C — a combination of heat and humidity that is very dangerous to anyone exposed for even brief periods.

... heat injuries across India now number in the tens of thousands with tragic heat deaths likely now numbering in the hundreds to thousands.

...global temperatures hitting in the range of 1.3 C above 1880s levels are absolutely adding intensity to the current heatwave ...

User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Wet Bulb Temp Near Deadly 35 C

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 20 May 2016, 16:07:27

Yep, I'm coming around on this issue.

Image
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Wet Bulb Temp Near Deadly 35 C

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 20 May 2016, 16:52:48

The highest wbt ever recorded before this was 33.5 in Iraq last August.

Now we're seeing them in the range of 34.4, and it's only May.

I don't like that trajectory.

It sure looks as if we are in a new regime where we see these unprecedented temperatures, starting probably later this year, occur somewhere in the world every year. Then at more and more places for longer and longer.

I consider myself a science-based doomer, but, short of a methane apocalypse, I really didn't think we'd start seeing these killer temps for decades or longer.

I'm gobsmacked.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Wet Bulb Temp Near Deadly 35 C

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 20 May 2016, 17:42:09

And also the problem is in a country like India many work outdoors and not that many of air conditioners. This is definitely something ominous.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 May 2016, 21:10:42

Merged, one thread on this topic is quite enough. Some days you guys make me feel like I am herding cats.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17059
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 20 May 2016, 22:24:08

Meow...!!

:) :-D :o 8O :lol: :shock: 8) :P :roll: :twisted: :evil: :cry: :oops: :razz: :!: :| :mrgreen: :badgrin:
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 21 May 2016, 02:12:53

if you look at the long term global temp graph you can see that after the 1997-98 El Nino event we had 3(?) years that dipped below the previous (to 1997-98 ) warmest years (2005 and 2010 for example ) but after that the annual temperatures were generally equal to or warmer than those previously record breaking years .

i'm guessing that with all the positive feedbacks starting to kick in we are approaching tipping points that start to take this away from our control

especially with the ghg levels so much higher than 1998
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 May 2016, 02:36:17

Well a notorious record set in India for highest temperature. Not looking good there. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/india-hott ... -1.3590788
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 21 May 2016, 06:20:47

http://www.reuters.com/video/2016/05/20 ... =368574166
Pakistan digs mass graves as heat wave looms

MBS posted this on the other thread, but I think it is relevant here. We are starting to see mass deaths well before we reach wbt 35. I'm not sure we'll ever get full and accurate reporting of how many people are dying right now in India. Even in Europe, there were wide ranges of estimate for total death numbers in their killer 2003 heat wave (though all were in the tens of thousands).

I neglected to post the link for the rs article I quoted above. Here it is:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/20/ ... peratures/
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 21 May 2016, 10:16:24

Why dig mass graves? When you have advanced warning there is no reason not to dig individual graves so family knows where you are. Maybe if is a cultural thing I just am missing?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
Subjectivist
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4703
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 21 May 2016, 12:53:32

Subjectivist wrote:Why dig mass graves? When you have advanced warning there is no reason not to dig individual graves so family knows where you are. Maybe if is a cultural thing I just am missing?


THey have the same climate as Guanajuato Mexico.... why not handle their dead the same way. Sun dried. Excellent symbolism for climate change related death

Image
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9568
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 21 May 2016, 14:43:30

I hope that's not real. It looks like a prop from an Indiana Jones movie.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 21 May 2016, 16:21:29

ennui2 wrote:I hope that's not real. It looks like a prop from an Indiana Jones movie.


It is real and I have been there. Guanajuato is north of Mexico city, an arid location where the dead were put into above ground crypts and they naturally mummified . They are on display in a museum there that is a major tourist attraction.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mummies_of_Guanajuato

I know a lot of you like to incorporate imagery like the Cormac McCarthy The Road into your internal doom narratives. I thought this image was potent and I am trying to be helpful here in any way I can. The fact that the image is real adds an extra punch.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9568
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 May 2016, 17:59:01

A good video from the scientist Paul Beckwith about the brutal heatwave affecting India and Pakistan and that entire region. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGK9Vl_ ... ture=share
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 21 May 2016, 20:25:19

PNG is also having a bad drought, by far the worst ever. They do mummification unwrapped also.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 21 May 2016, 21:17:32

just finished watching a Kevin Anderson presentation which , from my understanding of it against the current political/social climate, there is virtually NO CHANCE of staying below 2 degrees C

if you have property near the coast SELL NOW

if you live anywhere near the equator MOVE either north or south , whichever makes more sense for you and your family
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 21 May 2016, 21:40:09

Alternate view.. if you have property on the coast now, enjoy it, experience it, and do not weep when you return to the sea what has always belonged to the sea.

If something happens to cause sea level to rise sufficiently to take your typical coastal property within the next ten years or so.. it'll probably destroy industrial civilization as well. There is no place on Earth to escape the impact of that.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
AgentR11
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6377
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 09:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 22 May 2016, 00:13:45

"a Kevin Anderson presentation "

Which one did you watch? linkie?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 22 May 2016, 00:40:28

User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: Soon It Will Be So Hot Workers Outside Will Die--Holdren

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 22 May 2016, 01:02:11

Ibon wrote:
Lore wrote:One of the difficulties I see in getting people to understand the danger at hand is that humans in general tend to be Pollyanna about their future. They don't want to think about things they don't like to think about.

If you want to be positive about doing something? Tell everyone you know about the crisis that lays ahead. Then expect to get a lot of funny looks.


Let's probe deep here and please understand I am not singling you out but addressing this to the wider audience here.

I think it is time for a new orientation. For 50 years environmentalists and climate scientists and population demographers have made one dire warning after another and you can see as well as anyone that this strategy not only has failed to break this pollyanna mindset that you mentioned but in many cases has backfired since the nay sayers have used the "boy who cried wolf" story of doomer environmentalists as an effective defense to bolster their denial. This so frustrated many climate scientists that they responded by amping up the dire warnings too early which then back fired as the status quo no longer even pays attention to the real and compelling science present in the latest reports today being published.

We are so late in the game that it no longer makes any sense to go around spewing out all the doom and gloom coming our way believing that this is somehow going to wake up those who dont want to be awakened. Look at the past 50 years and you can see that being a doom warrior as a mission to enlighten is about as meaningful as a christian evangelist trying to convert an ISIS warrior to follow Jesus.

Lore, you are still very much in relationship to those in denial. They piss you off and this is what anchors you in your negativity.

I am no longer in relationship with those in denial. They for me are detritus. I don't care about them because they no longer have anything to contribute and they wont shift their thinking, they are obsolete and they also are doomed.
Fxxk them and move on because now in 2016 we are in a totally different place then 40 years ago when Rachel Carson wrote The Silent Spring.

Today we are at the doorstep of consequences. Today those consequences are baked in the cake as mentioned on another thread discussing this. There is no longer any point in staying in relationship with the status quo refusing to see this. It is now time for a new orientation.

Consequences are going to be brutal. The correction of our over population is going to be unbearable for those who do not understand the big picture. It will be unbearable also for many who do understand. We defaulted to consequences because we lived in a dream for 50 years. Staying in relationship with those that have been dreaming is not an effective strategy this late in the game.

The new orientation is seeing the consequences as the solutions out of the cultural check mate. Moving through the correction is an act of cleansing not only our excessive numbers and excessive consumption but also cleansing the very mindset that perpetuates this. This century is the beginning of the purge. We no longer need to be fighting the status quo. We have a much better ally. Climate change is an ally. Droughts and diminishing aquifers. All of the very consequences that manifest because of human overshoot are now our allies in solving the problem.

Our biosphere will suffer , natural eco systems will suffer. But nothing will suffer as greatly as the human eco systems. They are far more vulnerable. When you deeply understand this there is a major shift that happens in your head and you end up becoming suddenly more positive. There is no more frustration around beating you head against the wall of denial of the status quo. Change is happening and from here on out humans are going to be disproportionately targeted. The correction has begun.

This spawns positive thoughts and a proactive orientation. IT allows you to see the upcoming crisis and disasters as therapeutic instead of negative. It also awakens compassion for those you have been fighting against. This might seem counter intuitive but actually there will be a huge market for hospice type individuals that help guide society forward through this process.

I fully embrace this vision. It makes me wake up in morning and smile to the rising sun.... those three little birds on my doorstep are the trio of consequences finally putting an end to this madness.

Let go of your relationship to the status quo. They only harm your psyche. Move on. It's time. They aren't worth it and you have important work to do. You cant change them anyway.


In the first part, you argue that a "new orientation" is needed because dire predictions will be unheeded. And yet in the second part you argue that consequences will be "brutal," which is similar to making "dire predictions."

And if the "pollyanna mindset" will not listen to "brutal consequences," then what is the logic in assuming that they will listen to the same given some positive spin, i.e., let's "embrace" them?
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5604
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests