[The_Virginian]

Peak Oil Community,

YES, PEAK OIL IS REAL.

HOWEVER, while Crude oil is still available from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia etc. The Current US administaration wishes to maximise profit for it's biggest contributors (like big Pharman and Big Oil)...

ALL of this fits neatly into what is now being exposed as a plolicy to "enhance its relationship with OPEC." By surpressing one of the last great oil bastions...Iraq.

Today is the day to shout it out loud:


[web]http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=483&row=0[/web]


IF PEAK OIL was affecting supply, then why was one month ago the Best year in CRUDE petroleum invintories since 1999?

This fact has been bothering me for some time....

Even with the drop in invintories, CRUDE oil (not gasoline) is NOT in short supply, at least in the USA:

"There hasn't been a strong relationship between inventory data and crude prices in some time. Inventories are at pretty high historical levels," said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners."

WE ARE BEING USED. Peak oil will set in soon enough....but at this time it is way too early to say DEPLETION is causing such high prices....

Such high prices have MANY effects, some of them actualy good. Colin Cambell WANTS higher prices to offset demand and conserve what is left...

OPEC wants higher prices for many reasons as well...(duh)

And GM is like a duck with broken wings, lamely holding on to the promise of Corn ethanol....because it's the only way it can fight such treachery...

We are not witnessing the full effects of Peak Oil, but the RUN UP, the ANTICIPATION of the effects...at least in the USA.

2005 may have been the peak of oil production. But as the USA prints the dollars to buy this commodity IT IS NOT YET IN SHORT SUPPLY....

We have a greater problem with Methane than we do liquids... (I hope most of y'all know that by now!)


Now, what can be done about it... not very much IMHO. This administration is NOT "BUSINESS AS USUAL"


In the mean time Petroleum Co.'s will make good profit while the oils is till available....by co-ordinating distilliled petroleum prices vis SYNTHETIC SHORTAGES by simply not refining as much as they could...

While "CNN and Faux news" relays the FAKE terror war to your sets, This war and price increase will be justified from BOTH the "Right" (neocons) and LEFT (peak Oilers), and the CENTER (Petrodollar Bankers).


So what will be in 10 years...when PO is really felt....IF EXPLOITATION IS THIS BAD NOW...I shudder at what will be....

[Ancien_Opus]

Crude inventories are high and will likely remain so. Is it time to revise the paradigm?

Purchasing and storing is now more cost effective at the moment than JIT.

Remember that if it's on the books even though the oil is still on the water.

On site storage is a good hedge against the seasonal interruption. Think about Katrina and the "Crude Pipeline" service interruption. Remember Dick Cheney's call to the electric companies about getting those pumping stations back on line, those hospitals have generators and can wait.

I firmly believe that "peak oil" is currently serving notice to the whole JIT "group think" business mentality. It is no wonder that WalMart has launched a huge fuel cost savings initiative. The "wharehouse on wheels" has got to be feeling a little pinched.

Domestic oil production is still some 500,000 barrels off line from last hurricane season.

[Cynus]

"We are not witnessing the full effects of Peak Oil, but the RUN UP, the ANTICIPATION of the effects...at least in the USA. "

I don't think anyone has argued otherwise.

[firestarter]

Like everything else in the faux free market economy, nothing is as it appears.

Forbes says oil should trade at $30 a barrel. Simmons says $100. The faux free market says $60. Perhaps the faux market plays off the two "experts".

Peak oil is gonna happen, but perhaps not this year or even next year. I would not be shocked to see subsequent contracts dipping for a short time in the low $50's or high $40's.

[firestarter]

It's an election year! That makes as much sense as so called fundamentals driving prices.

[backstop]

Pstarr -

I wonder if anyone can find us a graph of New Oleans' fuel & energy consumptions for the last year ?

Given that the people aren't in their accustoned position to burn the fuel and use the electricity,
weather impacts can plainly be seen to curtail local consumption significantly.

In terms of price impacts those same weather constraints appeared widespread for much shorter time-periods,
but then there were plentiful strategic reserves to call on internationally,
which ain't reliably the case if such weather impacts continue to multiply worldwide.

Given that there is still no useful account of the 6,600 people who became MIKs [Missing In Katrina]
it is hard to estimate how much of New Orleans' former demand has just migrated to add to other states' energy supply issues,
particularly seeing the loss of these climate migrants' energy-using possessions and the changes in their lifestyles.

From their perspective, and thus to an extent the perspective of those around them,
the impoverishment wrought by Katrina is being met by the rising charges for energy,
thus further suppressing their ability to afford either new energy-using goods or the energy to run them,
even at prices well below previous peaks.

To this extent it seems problematic to try to disentangle the interaction of PO & GW in order to address them as distinct issues.

Which of them will prove the more dynamic a suppressor of fossil fuels' consumption thus becomes a rather moot point
but what seems indisputable is that these two looming factors have begun a mutually reinforcing interaction
in raising impoverishment around the planet.


regards,

Backstop

[The_Virginian]

It's an election year! That makes as much sense as so called fundamentals driving prices.

It would be wise for Bushco. cut the masses some slack...a little "Bread" with the circus....

Cynus,

Yes but we feed that anticipation, thus we are sheilds for the Petroleum Industry...they wipe their noses with out clean robes...

Excuses like Terrorisim, when the USA helped found the McQaida umbrella group/whipping boy is a farce.

The crude is here, the prices are high, some refineries have been closed down with the expressed plan of making a larger profit...

And the average north american has no chioce but to pay when a few CO.'s hold all the cards...including access to the presidency (remember Cheny's refusal to had over transcripts of meetings with Oil co.'s early on in the admin.?).


Too often we (and I Include myself) have become so anticipatory of the Peaking, that we attribute current price rises iwth Peak Oil...

Don't Bullshitsky me and say it aint so.

Temporary problems from Katrina? Well we still don't have it all working in GOM but we have more than enough from other sources...for now...

But the realization is we are being played like a fiddle....and that can change a persons tune.

Before the Opera is even at intermision, the "Dukes of Amerika" are raping the Soprano.

[MyOtherID]

It would be wise for Bushco. cut the masses some slack...a little "Bread" with the circus....

The Preznit knows that. Just watch the gas price miraculously come down around the Senate elections ...

[JoeCoal]

Actually, sometimes I feel like we're being used as an even less savory type of disposable dead tree...

[firestarter]

It would be wise for Bushco. cut the masses some slack...a little "Bread" with the circus....

The Preznit knows that. Just watch the gas price miraculously come down around the Senate elections ...

Actually, Bush has had historically less influence on oil prices during election years than I suspected. For example, in 2004, Jan light sweet crude was trading at $33 and change. By Nov, it was trading at $50 plus.

[MarkL]

..

[The_Virginian]

Blaming the high prices on ONLY on Futures doesn't work when precieved scarcity is one of the factors in price speculation.

Futures are a CIRCULAR ARGUMENT that misses some key pionts?.

-------------

( Your Argument: "Oil is expensive." Why? Because Futures are High.... But why are futures SO High? Becuse Oil is expensive -Ben Steins Illogical excuse-

OR:

If Oil Fututres are High ---------> Oil Is Expensive


You are missing the "Because" factor, tell me WHY futures are double that of before Iraq War II?

We could use MY argument:

HF = High oil futures

R= Reasons Oil Futures are so high

HO= High Oil prices

If R ------------>HF, If HF------------> HO )


----------

If you read the Palast article in my first post, you would also note that making Iraq pump LESS oil was one of the supposed reasons for invasion...based on that argument, Oil futures are being run up by by a SYNTHETIC Scarcity...and "Peak Oil" is bieng USED as an excuse for the "intelegencia" as to why Gasoline is so high. It is a "Selling Point"....

Before Iraq War II, Saddam was selling 80% of his sweet light to the USA. Oil was up form previous lows, but about half of what it costs today...many factors contributed to the invasion... Palast cliams to have proof of

Let me make this clear. Peak Oil Will happen...but right now it is a SYNTHETIC PEAK, the USA is making war in the oilfields in order to dominate, both price, flow, and method of contract fufillment (petrodollar).


( I used to call 2005 a "De Facto Peak" and it still is, but with more sinister implications)

SO, YES PEAK OIL IS BEING USED TO JUSTIFY SYNTHETIC SHORTAGES AND MAINTAINING HIGH PRICES EVEN WHEN CRUDE INVINTORIES ARE AT LEVELS THAT MADE GAS CHEAP IN 1999.

[MyOtherID]

If you read the Palast article in my first post, you would also note that making Iraq pump LESS oil was one of the supposed reasons for invasion...based on that argument, Oil futures are being run up by by a SYNTHETIC Scarcity...and "Peak Oil" is being USED as an excuse for the "intelligentsia" as to why Gasoline is so high. It is a "Selling Point"....

The Palast theory would certainly explain why Simmons, an oil industry shill, is talking up peak oil and therefore talking up high oil prices and high oil stock prices.


.

[Barbara]

Peak Oil Will happen...but right now it is a SYNTHETIC PEAK, the USA is making war in the oilfields in order to dominate, both price, flow, and method of contract fufillment (petrodollar).

I may agree with you. But as you know, making a synthetic peak so close to a real one means we'll never be able to recover production to pre-(synthetic) peak levels.
In other words, synthetic or not, we've peaked.

[Doly]

Americans, as usual, have trouble to grasp the fact that the rest of the world exists.

OK, maybe USA has plenty of oil inventories. And so what? The rest of the world may be a different story. What about China? And India? Oil prices are decided in the world market, remember?

[The_Virginian]

Peak Oil Will happen...but right now it is a SYNTHETIC PEAK, the USA is making war in the oilfields in order to dominate, both price, flow, and method of contract fufillment (petrodollar).

I may agree with you. But as you know, making a synthetic peak so close to a real one means we'll never be able to recover production to pre-(synthetic) peak levels.
In other words, synthetic or not, we've peaked.

Agreed, and if you have the patience to search posts of mine form 6 monthes ago, I felt the same.... (not that you have to...)

What has changed? only my additude.

I see huge profits racked up by Exxon et al. and HIGH oil invintories in the USA. LESS refining capacity, and HIGHER prices for a basic American "staple" gasoline.

It is a mini-mind F**k. The oil crops have access to better data than most of us, same with the Government...

So after years of denial, they play it up Peak Oil while raising prices....

One last Oil-Orgy....


[quote "Doly"]

Americans, as usual, have trouble to grasp the fact that the rest of the world exists.

OK, maybe USA has plenty of oil inventories. And so what? The rest of the world may be a different story. What about China? And India? Oil prices are decided in the world market, remember?

Doly,

"Look at this imbalance: The average American consumes 25 barrels of oil a year. In China, the average is about 1.3 barrels per year; in India, less than one.

So as the 2.4 billion Chinese and Indians move to improve their living standards, they're going to want more oil - likely more than can be produced."


http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0120/p16s01-cogn.html
Copyright © 2006 The Christian Science Monitor. All rights reserved.


OK so there are 1.4 Billion Chinese, and 300 million US residents...give or take some millions. That makes for about 2 billion "barrels" of Oil Use per year in China... IT'S STILL PITIFUL


So excuse me for being a little Amro-centric....it's still our market, our Dollars, and we use OVER 7 billion barrels a year, despite having 3% of the worlds reserves....



Despite your pre-conceptions, I have lived in countries where "Benzine" was 4 dollars a gallon...in Clinton years...now it's 5 something...Price set by Gov. etc.


I know the pain in the rest of the world.And it stinks...believe me.

This is not what this thread is about...

China Lothe to run up High prices, may delay filling reserve

China is all about PRICE POINT... China is telling IRON mines in Austrailia how much it will NOT pay per ton...they will not just let commodities run up so quickly becuase speculators require a profit...give them more credit than that....


CHINA IS a FACTOR, I am not saying oil should be 12 FRN a Barrel like in 1999...but is 30-40 FRN too much to ask?

[MyOtherID]

If the premise of this thread is true, then this website has become an unwitting pawn in the service of the oil industry.

[Denny]

Remember those innocent days of the Clinton administration, when the big money focussed scandal was "Whitewater"? The big issue being that the Clinton's had made maybe som money dollars by involvement wiht real estate schemes?

Funny thing is nobody seems to be checking out the Bush/Cheney regime for their profits from big oil. Where are the democrats on this? The Republicans were much more aggressive against the Clintons, in every repsect, that is for sure.

If you remember back to 2001, there was a strong move afoot to open the valves in Iraq to further exports, with the strong arm of missile inspections serving to reduce fears of Saddam using oil profits to do evil deeds. That, ocmbined wiht the defvestating effect the oil export restricitons palkyed on the Iraqi economy, which hurt the little people most, including the children. Well, we know what happened next, suddenly Bush and company kept parroting the WMD line, even to the point of contradicting the U.N. wepaons inspectors in the last couple of weeks before the invasion.

To top it off, Bushco fooled the redneck crowd into believing an invasion would lead to lower oil prices in short order.

Then, after the invasion, came the news that the whole Iraq oil production infrastructure was rickety. As if the CIA would have no knowledge of that before, as Iraq had been cut off from purchasing most of the sophisticated petroleum equipment for a long time, equipment needed to maintain the oil producing and transport infrastructure.

The horrible chaos that Iraq has become has done so much to boost oil prices. And, it was perfectly logical that this chaos would have led to this end, as the oil market had come to bank on an increased flow from Iraq, but it turned out be a constriction instead.