[Ibon]

Oh no. She saw me on the site and she said..... "Your not doing anything for the world. It's just bla bla bla bla. You are a loser! "

She is mean. That hurts.

[SeaGypsy]

Ibon, you know I love you & all but some folks just cannot fathom that a few dozen people in some unheard of remote locale may end up watching all this dissolve almost remotely. Very few of us, even on here, have even experienced living anything like remote. To people who live in or on edge of megalopolis 'it' is over- conquered. Nature is kaput.

The signature calls BS to me on this scenario & so very attune with you Ibon-

Transglobal night flights- (see world at night images)

Direct experience of watching nature recover, with little or no help.

Being in places 99.9% of humans would piss their pants & dial up Scotty, where there is abundant food, way more than the ratio of people around who could actually survive there.

The ultra quantum mystery of humanity. If it is all ultimately an exercise is futility, entropy, what is knowledge & why is there a definite sense of the infinite?

It's going to be an horrific century. But there will be awesomeness being lived peacefully in the hills or on the rice flats as they salt out & fester on human corpses, providing abundant food for the following.

As they say, life goes on.

[Ibon]

Ibon what do you think of the theory of keystone species? From all my studies on the topic of the ecosystem it seems to me the 'keystone' concept is very weak because nearly every set of interlocking factors studied was in an already deeply disturbed location where humans had been causing significant changes for centuries to millennia.

My formal education was a BS degree in ecology but my area of focus has always been biogeography and I have spent a lifetime reading ecological books and articles related to this field along with countless thousands of hours in temperate and tropical habitats, in disturbed and undisturbed areas. This is the subject where I am most able to competently contribute opinions and conjectures which all of us should remember is mostly what we do here often offering up links that support our suppositions. At best as a community we do act somewhat like a very very amateur academic institution in that we can peer review each others posts. Let's just have the humility to recognize that we are amateurs but there are nuggets of gold among the often sophomoric diatribes That is where this site is at its best by the way. And actually, real academia has turf wars and opinions sometimes as heated and opinionated as we can see here at po.com.

Something else worth mentioning. Many of us here focus on the interplay and confluence of macro phenomenon. Like the interplay between politics, economic system, peak oil, climate change and overpopulation. That's all big systemic topics. The more you immerse yourself on these macro phenomenon and how the inter related they are the more your knowledge results in a big picture synthesis. So much of this is conjecture because we don't have real long term academic research in this area.

Here at Totumas I get all kinds of research biologists who are micro focused on a specific family of insects or orchids and many of these individuals are incredibly knowledgeable in a very narrow field and if I bring up a more macro topic that requires synthesis of big macro phenomenon like peak oil often they look at me squinty eyed from their acute micro world view and usually just give the same opinions like the status quo.... "there is plenty of oil" , "new technology will come along" etc. etc. Of course many do get it but you guys would be surprised how many don't.

A very well known evolutionary biologist and paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould (who went to the same university as an undergraduate that I did, Antioch College in Yellow Springs Ohio) together with Niles Eldredge, developed this theory of punctuated equilibrium back in the early 70's in regards to evolution and speciation.

Gould discovered that the fossil record shows long periods of equilibrium with stable habitats and slower speciation punctuated by times of accelerated extinctions and speciation. Aspects of his theory have been disputed but the basic theory is correct.
Reading any of his popular books is a highly recommended and his writings greatly influenced my ecological world view. Gould was a paleontologist and evolutionary biologist and why he was even able to discover this theory of punctuated equilibrium was because he was able to interpret fossils from a big picture synthesis of paleontology and evolutionary biology. A good example of the power of big picture synthesis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Jay_Gould

Take another popular natural history writer, John McPhee, a geologist, has written many books that talk about our deep geological past. He also synthesized big topics. Just read this summary of Basin and Range, one of his books:

http://www.amazon.com/Basin-Range-John- ... 0374516901

The first of John McPhee's works in his series on geology and geologists, Basin and Range is a book of journeys through ancient terrains, always in juxtaposition with travels in the modern world―a history of vanished landscapes, enhanced by the histories of people who bring them to light. The title refers to the physiographic province of the United States that reaches from eastern Utah to eastern California, a silent world of austere beauty, of hundreds of discrete high mountain ranges that are green with junipers and often white with snow. The terrain becomes the setting for a lyrical evocation of the science of geology, with important digressions into the plate-tectonics revolution and the history of the geologic time scale.

Many other well know popular authors like Jared Diamond derive their work on synthesis of big topics.

So Tanada, I wandered afar from you question of Keystone species. You are mostly right but interestingly enough Stephen Jay Gould hit on the fact that our biosphere and web of life on the planet looking at the fossil record reveals long long periods of stasis with relatively little extinctions and new speciation punctuated by periods of increased extinctions and rapid acceleration of new speciation.

It is these punctuated moments that are fascinating in the fossil record.

How that is relevant to our modern times is quite relevant, in fact our species mirrors the general ecological phenomenon of punctuated equilibrium. Here we where for hundreds of thousands of years in stasis, held within carrying capacity, going along in equilibrium in the co habitation with other life forms and Bang, we are now at a punctuated moment.

Both positions are correct actually when Pops for example argues a more tempered position that humanity will not collapse and die-off instantly and he comes from his bias of focus on the equilibrium. Then Cid Yama comes along or Kaiser Jeep pointing out all these impending tipping points that will reduce out planet to ash and radiation and toxic anaerobic hydrogen sulfide ball of rotten egg smell ha ha

The highly resilient biosphere is approaching a punctuated moment. No doubt. Caused by us.

OK, I have rambled long on this post and didn't even answer your questions about keystone species. I'll get to it tomorrow morning with my morning coffee.. Chores and tasks are calling, we have a wave of guests arriving soon. I'll back to your question.

[dohboi]

Soooo, basically, we're the 'punct' it punctuated equilibrium?

And you, on the other hand are...

http://creagrus.home.montereybay.com/ibon.html

??

[onlooker]

That is such a salient point by Ibon, that here on peak oil we are delving into the composite big picture of many areas of human interest. Is it not true that academia and scholars of many fields are specialists and their is not enough overall appreciation of how different fields in both the natural sciences and social sciences interact and interplay. Well here we are in fact trying albeit as amateurs to synthesize how the world is being affected relative to various scientific disciplines. It is a absolutely true that trying to predict the future of humanity is foolish in any detail. I do feel though that in reading already so many posts we have edified each other with the many viewpoints and perspectives. Each poster contributing different levels of expertise as well as their unique perspective. So a macro big picture outlook or diagnosis of humanity is elusive but nevertheless we are making some rather cogent and pertinent observations.

[Ibon]

Yes Ibon means bird in Tagalog and a couple of you guessed that. I'm sure Seagypsy knew that already. I have been an avid birdwatcher since I was 15.

[onlooker]

You know Ibon, I am sure more than a few here envy your attachment and close visceral connection with Nature. I am sure that being their within and among Nature can only reinforce a certain peace and clarity of the spirit that allows one to better accept this mortal life we have been bequeathed.

[Ibon]

Tanada's question about the importance of the role of keystone species wasn't fully answered. Look at the attached youtube video that got 23 million views on the impact the reintroduction of wolves had on Yellowstone NP. This was going around and many of you probably saw this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysa5OBhXz-Q

This shows the role of a keystone species in how its absence or presence has a profound affect on habitat.

Keystone species are not always apex predators though, it can be any species whose role has a disproportionate affect on its habitat relative to its numbers.

The video production linked above had this almost romantic message of restoring balance and harmony with man's reintroduction of the wolf. Because we have demonized predators throughout history this message is worthy but I find it a bit misleading because it suggests that in any habitat there is this exact perfect harmony or "climax" state that in this case was restored with the wolf's reintroduction.

A lot of work with forest ecology has begun to question this idea of a perfect climax state in any habitat. Pollen analysis of forests have shown that many old growth forests through time were shifting constantly the relative abundance and distribution of species even within bioregions. So many factors like disease and fire create a dynamic. Also remember that northern latitudes had an ice sheet covering the majority of continents as recently as 12,000 years ago. That is too short a time for any habitat to have reached a long term steady state.

Just look at the pine bark beetle devastation of conifers in northern latitudes in the past 20 years as rising temperatures have enabled a population explosion of the beetles. You can drive from Anchorage to Homer Alaska on the Seward Peninsula and see hundreds of miles of dead pines. Is this climate change? Perhaps but this climate has been changing since 12,000 years and these kinds of dynamics are kind of inherent in this region and resiliency will show up here as restoration can happen quickly.

Tropical regions on the other hand are far more stable for many reasons.

Wolves were removed from the Eastern US. What happened? Deer population soared and so did Lyme disease. Coyotes since 80 years have wondered into parts of the east where they never were and interestingly they have cross bred with wolves and are now larger than they were before and are now beginning to feed on deer whereas their main prey was previously smaller game. This shows amazing adaptability in short time. This is a good example of the plasticity that can be found within a habitat and within a species. This reinforces resiliency.

When speaking of vulnerabilities of natural ecosystems vs human landscapes it should be obvious that I am comparing whole integrated natural ecosystems made up of thousands of species vs human landscapes made up of a handful of species. Obviously natural ecosystems are more resilient because the distribution and relative abundance of any species is less important than the integrity of the ecosystem as a whole.

Human landscapes don't have this luxury because they are all about the dominance of only one species, humans. But this might not be obvious to some of us who have a natural bias toward the continued resiliency of our own species.

Nature doesn't have this natural bias.

[Ibon]

Very few of us, even on here, have even experienced living anything like remote. To people who live in or on edge of megalopolis 'it' is over- conquered. Nature is kaput. .

The comment I made the other day about the influence of the unobserved on phenomenon has been kicking around in my head. What really is objective reality when the vast majority of our species no longer have nature as a point of reference? The common saying about how do you describe vision to a blind man?

7 billion blind men?

Before a major inflection point?

Wow, breathtaking.

Look at history, look at the fossil record. Yes, punctuated equilibrium is a cyclical reality.

Back to that vast coniferous forest infected for hundreds of miles with pine bark beetles. You can drive for hundreds of miles and see nothing but dead gray trees. There are millions of young saplings sprouting hinting at the restoration to come but the death of billions of trees and the bleak gray landscape has to work on the unconscious of the 7 billion unobserved.

You can shut it out and close your eyes and deny it all you want but The Overshoot Predator is licking his chops at the moment.

You can also choose to acknowledge the cyclical nature of life and howl at the moon. It can lift your spirit as you place your ultimate trust and faith in the truth that nature bats last.

Always has in spite of all the illusion of human dominance.

[Ibon]

You know Ibon, I am sure more than a few here envy your attachment and close visceral connection with Nature. I am sure that being their within and among Nature can only reinforce a certain peace and clarity of the spirit that allows one to better accept this mortal life we have been bequeathed.

Unfortunately or maybe fortunately there are not enough who even have a clue what that is.

Everyone can find an anchor in their lives that acts as an over arching reference. For me that has always been nature. I was a 12 year old boy once whose cousin woke me up at 2am and we drove 40 minutes up a 4wd road in national forest land in eastern Pennsylvania to the top of a mountain where a communication tower was lit up with bright lights to warn aircraft of its presence. These light attracted millions of moths, an unbelievable diversity that to my 12 year old soul represented the ultimate treasure hunt. This had a huge impact, it was the first exposure to the immense diversity of life out there to be reveled in for those who choose to do so. For me this eclipsed anything man's technology has come up with. It became the anchor that permitted me to see through the veil of human hubris.

How many folks had such privilege today? You don't get his visceral relationship with nature through the portal of digital media.

I say maybe it is fortunate. The cynic in me is sometimes grateful for the ignorance. Let them cluster fuck elsewhere.

[onlooker]

My reference point of Nature is because Nature is what allows us to live. Everyone and everything is Nature. I always come back to hubris and humility. For all the achievements of Man pales before Nature and its awe inspiring wonders and characteristics. Yet our plight is not about Nature it seems to me, it is more a reflection of our demons and foibles and flaws as humans. Our destructive tendencies seem random and may be more than anything related to our restless and emotional nature. Which is also partly responsible ironically for our creative expressions. Sorry to go off course on this thread just wished to make that observation.

[Ibon]

My reference point of Nature is because Nature is what allows us to live. Everyone and everything is Nature. I always come back to hubris and humility. For all the achievements of Man pales before Nature and its awe inspiring wonders and characteristics. Yet our plight is not about Nature it seems to me, it is more a reflection of our demons and foibles and flaws as humans. Our destructive tendencies seem random and may be more than anything related to our restless and emotional nature. Which is also partly responsible ironically for our creative expressions. Sorry to go off course on this thread just wished to make that observation.

I see what you mean, I guess I am a bit dogmatic and in that my personal mythology or spiritual belief, call it religion if you want, puts nature at the center of our plight for ultimately when it is ignored, abused and undermined all of the wonderful creative human achievements become meaningless. At least in my world view. I would furthermore make the claim that our destructive tendencies and restlessness are somewhat related to having abandoned a core relationship with nature. This might suggest an ideology in the sense that it has to compete with other ideologies. Ultimately though abstract human relationships with our biosphere in the artificial landscapes we have created are not ideologically sustainable if they are built on a mindset that treats nature like an externality that can be ignored and exploited.

If we want the freedoms that technology provides at some point we will be forced to abandon a certain hubris that we are not beholden to nature's limits. Because technology, fossil fuels and germ theory enabled us to temporarily conquer these checks and balances logically means that we have to replace these natural controls with cultural self regulation that provides the same checks and balances. This is regarding our freedom to breed and consume.

The only way to do this so that it does not feel like an authoritative ideology or religion is through love and reverence of nature. Then the act of self regulation pays tribute to that which we love. But Onlooker, to the minds of current blind humanity this sounds like severe hocus pocus wishful thinking. Which it is because because it puts the cart before the horse. Trying to promote reverence before the consequences is futile. We will learn reverence through the destructive path of dying off to a sustainable carrying capacity. Reverence for Kudzu Ape requires a hammer. If we do not suffer the consequences the hubris will remain.

It's a shame kind of that it has to be this way but not when you compare modern Kudzu Apes to 17 year old adolescents. Don't we display all the attributes?

We are all going to die, our hubris is pure illusion in the face of our inevitable mortality. Why wait for the last few breaths to acknowledge this. If you bring this truth deeply into your life while still young you can live a far richer spiritual life. Watch any natural habitat and you will observe the endless tapestry of life and death enacted in every corner. It has a grace and selflessness to it.

There was a field biologist, I can't find the reference, but he was in africa and was attacked and mauled by a lion who didn't kill him and he luckily survived. He mentioned that as he was in the paws of this huge beast staring directly into the eyes of this predator he felt this surrendering reverence and was willing to be taken.

They say this is exactly what happens at the end of the chase, the prey submits with grace.

Why do we feel so exempt?

[dohboi]

That's it. I always thought that being eaten by a large feline would be the most blessed way to go.

(Partly because I know that the earliest meaning of 'blessed' was 'bloody'! )

By the way, recent findings show that loss of keystone species also accelerates CC: https://www.inverse.com/article/9400-sc ... ange-worse

[onlooker]

"Why do we feel so exempt?" Maybe because deep down no matter what we claim we are afraid of death. You know the husband of the sister of my wife is a devout Christian. Yet he confessed that he was afraid of death. A narrative of humanity since civilization has been to conquer real and perceived obstacles. What greater obstacle to conquer than death.

[PrestonSturges]

I just picked up a book by the psychologist Irvin Yalom who did pioneering work in group therapy and is still alive and doing interviews. His other work is summarized in his book "Existential Psychotherapy" with sections titled "Meaninglessness," "isolation," and "Death." It's mostly about the psychology of death. He considered a deeply humane and surprisingly cheerful guy.

[onlooker]

I think Preston, this is just my opinion but the people who live less in fear of whatever tend to be nicer than those who live with more fear.

[PrestonSturges]

I think Preston, this is just my opinion but the people who live less in fear of whatever tend to be nicer than those who live with more fear.

It's good to know that the ruthless people in the world will all meet the same end. As the Bible says, "All is vanity."

1 The words of the Preacher, the son of David, king in Jerusalem.
2 “Vanity[a] of vanities,” says the Preacher;
“Vanity of vanities, all is vanity.”
3 What profit has a man from all his labor
In which he toils under the sun?
4 One generation passes away, and another generation comes;
But the earth abides forever.
5 The sun also rises, and the sun goes down,
And hastens to the place where it arose.
6 The wind goes toward the south,
And turns around to the north;
The wind whirls about continually,
And comes again on its circuit.
7 All the rivers run into the sea,
Yet the sea is not full;
To the place from which the rivers come,
There they return again.
8 All things are full of labor;
Man cannot express it.
The eye is not satisfied with seeing,
Nor the ear filled with hearing.
9 That which has been is what will be,
That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.
10 Is there anything of which it may be said,
“See, this is new”?
It has already been in ancient times before us.
11 There is no remembrance of former things,
Nor will there be any remembrance of things that are to come
By those who will come after

... and Fight Club

First you've got to know - not fear, know - that someday you're gonna die.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvtUrjfnSnA

[onlooker]

Yes all their riches and power will not go with them wherever they go. Thanks for those great verses P.

[onlooker]

What I am referring to is our current resiliency of the BAU and overshoot state of our species that Ibon asserts has probably considerable time left.
Or is this apparent resiliency merely a mirage and are we on the threshold of major changes that will disrupt and test our capacity to function within the current socio/economic/political system?
I am not quite buying Ibon's assessment. I think our financial system is on the cusp of a serious crisis due to energy constraints and other factors among which I would include its accelerating tendency of excluding ever more people from attaining tangible benefits from it. I also think a Major Pandemic could occur at any time. A wildcard is the possibility of escalation into a thermonuclear world war.
So, we may begin gradually being bought into compliance with natural limitations as Ibon believes or we may face shortly calamitous events due to the building pressure of our Overshoot condition