[Plantagenet]

*IF* the Russian's choose to repair it, my guess is it'll take them a year to get their act together and bring it back into service. They'll spend six months filling out paper work.

So you are already changing your prediction?

In just a day you've gone from your initial prediction of a "few months" for the dry docks to be back in operation to now a year?

OK.

That makes a lot more sense to me.

But then you also use the word "if" the Russian repair it.....that means you think that perhaps the Russians won't repair it at all?

Whoa....with that statement you are now moving seriously close to being in full agreement with what I said.

Think about it....your statement that the Russians may choose not to repair the dry docks at all is the exactly the same as what I've been saying all along. ......You've been quibbling over the word "destroy" for several days but leaving that aside it appears you now accept that my prediction that the Russians won't repair the dry docks at all due to the extensive damage from the missile attack has a distinct possibility of being right.

OK. That's great. In fact I think I'll take a little victory dance right there.



Right now the Russians have even bigger problems to worry about than two burned out hulks sitting in a heavily damaged dry dock. The Russians have to try to prevent the Ukrianians from destroying the rest of their air defense system over Crimea, blowing up more ships in the Black sea, bringing down the Kursk Bridge and expanding their ground assault to the Azov Sea, cutting the land connection between mainland Russia and the Crimean Peninsula and blockading all the Russian forces now in occupied SE Ukraine.

Cheers!

[evilgenius]

With fall approaching, I wonder if there is time for Ukraine to retake Crimea before winter? In other words, are they positioning themselves for when spring comes again or are they going to attempt to retake the peninsula now?

About a year ago I found out that Russia is interested in the gas fields which Crimea is naturally connected to. It makes sense that Ukraine would try to establish control over that sort of asset first, before advancing against Russian positions farther north.

Then again, if you can get Russia to commit to defending one section over another, it may be that pursuing this line is only about gaining an advantage in the north? If they are positioning for a winter's long stalemate, in seeming preparation for a spring offensive to take Crimea, they could be doing that only to see what the Russians do in response. They could back off from important positions in the north.

The north could be what this late season advance is all about. It depends upon what the Ukrainians actually make of their chances to keep prosecuting the war. If they think they can keep going another year, they could be doing that. If they think they can't, they are probably going all out now.

[Plantagenet]

With fall approaching, I wonder if there is time for Ukraine to retake Crimea before winter? In other words, are they positioning themselves for when spring comes again or are they going to attempt to retake the peninsula now?

Ukraine doesn't have to battle through the entire Russian army to "retake" Crimea. They just have to cut it off and blockade it until the Russian forces there run off out of food, water, fuel and ammunition.

Crimea has to import almost all its food, water, and fuel.

Cut Crimea off from Russia and eventually all the Russian forces in SE Ukraine will have to surrender.

About a year ago I found out that Russia is interested in the gas fields which Crimea is naturally connected to. It makes sense that Ukraine would try to establish control over that sort of asset first, before advancing against Russian positions farther north.

Exactly right. And Ukraine has already taken over the offshore platforms tapping a big NG field south of Crimea. The Ukrainians will turn off that NG flow to Crimea immediately and then eventually divert it to unoccupied parts of Ukraine.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

*IF* the Russian's choose to repair it, my guess is it'll take them a year to get their act together and bring it back into service. They'll spend six months filling out paper work.

So you are already changing your prediction?

In just a day you've gone from your initial prediction of a "few months" for the dry docks to be back in operation to now a year?

NOPE
I SAID "AT LEAST", NOT "NOT MORE THAN".

LEARN TO READ.

[evilgenius]

With fall approaching, I wonder if there is time for Ukraine to retake Crimea before winter? In other words, are they positioning themselves for when spring comes again or are they going to attempt to retake the peninsula now?

Ukraine doesn't have to battle through the entire Russian army to "retake" Crimea. They just have to cut it off and blockade it until the Russian forces there run off out of food, water, fuel and ammunition.

Crimea has to import almost all its food, water, and fuel.

Cut Crimea off from Russia and eventually all the Russian forces in SE Ukraine will have to surrender.

About a year ago I found out that Russia is interested in the gas fields which Crimea is naturally connected to. It makes sense that Ukraine would try to establish control over that sort of asset first, before advancing against Russian positions farther north.

Exactly right. And Ukraine has already taken over the offshore platforms tapping a big NG field south of Crimea. The Ukrainians will turn off that NG flow to Crimea immediately and then eventually divert it to unoccupied parts of Ukraine.

Cheers!

I think they have already cut off most of the water. There is a canal that goes into Crimea from Ukraine. I think the Ukrainians have already stopped it up. I agree it is a good tactic. It will be interesting to see what happens. It could be a winter of suffering for Russia. All that Ukraine has to do is win the positions, not even the close ones, but the ones that effect resupply, and they could do that.

[Newfie]

Ukraine blocked the Canal in response to the 2014 attack. Apparently Crimea has enough water for the population but the Canal supported agriculture, which took something like a 90% reduction.

ONE of Russias stated goals in 2023 was to reopen that Canal and restore agriculture. However, when they blew the damn that cut off water to the Canal. I believe they previously blocked the canal to restor a highway over it. So this time is is the Russians who destroyed the Canal. Ironically the highway relied upon the dam so without the dam there is no need to block the Canal.

It seems that blowing the dam was a supremely stupid idea which hurt everyone and benefitted no one. It was just a pique of arrogance and anger serving no one and hurting many.

[theluckycountry]

You may find this article interesting. I'd like to hear your opinion on it, as a Pole in the heart of it ...

The guy who has written it is from our far left side of political spectrum but his analysis is surprisingly honest.

Following observations he makes are grossly correct:

1. Society is divided along political lines

2. Liberal traditions of West are NOW distrusted here

4. Men are much less interested in university education than women (because fork lift operator will earn twice as much as psychology or sociology graduate and plumber or electrician will earn even more).

6. Men are usually supportive to refugees from Ukraine and women increasingly hate them - that is because overwhelming majority of these refugees are women, many of them quite nice and submissive,

So, basically your nation supports the old values, the ones that built the 20th century. I think that is the case in many western nations but the majority are shouted down by the small pervert minorities. The governments appear to want to see these sick ideas flourish, probably because they are all perverts themselves, like the senators of ancient Greece and Rome with their homosexual and pedophilic habits.

The US seems equally divided, the Trump phenomena, where people are rallying behind someone who says he supports the old values. On one level this special operation of Russia in the ukraine is a pushback against Western wokeizm, that's certainly been voiced by Russians, who as a nation reject all of it. I understand your nation's concern about Russia taking over the ukraine again, what it means for your sovereignty. But I have my doubts they want to expand now.

They gave up the USSR because it was a millstone around their neck, too hard to manage, not a lot of profit in the venture. The USSR was the whole result of one dictators view, he wanted to conquer the world so to speak, I doubt he even believed much in the tenets of communism, it was just a means to an end, a way to feed his ego. And of course now we have the BRICS+ alliance ever growing so why engage in that if you were going to go full retard expansionist? Russophobes are still thinking it's 1955, they haven't come into the 21st century yet.

In truth the US has been far more expansionist than either Russia or China, and I think that is what is driving all this anti-China anti-Russia rhetoric. They are trying to hide their own actions behind a facade of righteousness. Imagine if the US took as strong a stand against Mexico as the Russians have against the turds in ukraine, they wouldn't have an illegal immigration nightmare on their hands now and a lot of their drug problem would go away. I'm afraid the US has dropped the ball. Big time.

[Plantagenet]

[
I SAID "AT LEAST", NOT "NOT MORE THAN".

LEARN TO READ.

OK. Calm down there.

You are the one retracting and changing your position, not me.

If you're going to shift your prediction in the middle of our discussion about your prediction, you could at least be a tiny bit gracious about it.

OK....so you've now completely abandoned your original prediction that you were so insistent about. You no longer think that the dry docks would be open again in a "few months".....is that right?

You now 100% agree with me that your original prediction that the dry docks would be back in service in a "few months" is highly unlikely to be true?

Well....I think thats great.

-----------------------------

AND your new position is that Russians will remove the two destroyed ships and repair any damage to the dry docks and have them operational again in less then a year?

Personally I think you are still being much too optimistic.

Western news reports and the photo evidence shows the transport ship is a ruined hulk and the submarine is severely damaged as well. And clearly there is some degree of damage to the dry docks as well. You are right that the gate is intact and the dry docks remain dry. But the dry dock was hit by multiple cruise missiles and then it caught on fire....and it wouldn't take much damage to put critical dry dock infrastructure, such as the pumps and motors that open the doors and pump the water out, as we'll as all the electrical equipment and wiring, out of working order. AND the Ukrainains can just drop another bomb on the dry docks if the Russians actually make an effort to repair them so I think they are effectively out of commission for the duration of the war.

Personally, I don't think the Russians will be able to repair the two damaged ships in the dry dock bays, much less get the dry dock up and running in less than a year, especially as the Ukrianians are now very close to cutting Crimea off from mainland Russia by blowing up the Kursk Bridge and destroying the rail and road links from the north. If the Ukrainians succeed in cutting off Crimea from Russia, the Russians are going to be preoccupied with getting food, water, fuel and ammo into their forces in Crimea.

I think the famous British commando raid in 1942 which destroyed Nazi-occupied dry docks provides a useful analogy to this dry dock attack. It took six years....until 1948....to get those dry docks operational again after the British destroyed them in 1942*. I think something similar will occur here now that the Ukrianians have destroyed these dry docks. I don't know if it will take six years...but I predict it will certainly take more than one year.

Cheers.

*In the interest of full disclosure, I've done a bit more research on this and I found another WWII dry dock that was put out of operation, this time in Naples in 1943.



The Germans sabotaged the Naples dry dock as they retreated up the Italian Peninsula, but it only took the Brits and Americans a bit over a year to get it back in operation. So it is possible to repair a dry in a year or so......But that repair was done by the Brits and the American in full war mobilization mode. I still don't think the Russians will get things done that quickly in Crimea, especially as they remain under Ukrainian attack. And even if the Russians do mount an effort to repair the dry docks.....which I personally doubt...the Ukrianians can easily bomb it again.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

You are the one retracting and changing your position, not me.

I haven't retracted anything. My opinion remains as it was.

At least a few months, which means not less than 3-4, could be 12, could be 24. A lot depends on what the Russians choose to do. They could just abandon it until the hostilities are over and UA runs out of Ukrainians. They could actually get their act together and do something other than pushing paper and empty promises. Who knows.

My opinion is that the dry dock has not been adequately attended to sufficiently to call it destroyed. The gates seal, the dock is dry. My suspicious is that the missiles that were aimed at the gates were intercepted, and we'll try again shortly, depending on inventory evaluation vs value of the target.

[theluckycountry]

An inconsequential dry dock in the age of air power. Get over it boys, get over it.

[Plantagenet]

my guess is it'll take them a year to get their act together and bring it back into service.

OK. Thats clear enough.

And as I've said all along I think it will take quite a bit longer, especially since the Ukrainians can just hit the dry dock again and put it out of service if the Russians actually even try to repair it.

Lets just watch and see what happens. It should be an interesting year.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to slowly gain ground, and it appears Russian troops are starting to panic.

When a group of Russian soldiers recently tried to run away from the front, they were killed by "friendly fire" called in by other Russian soldiers.

botched Russian retreat

What I'm wondering is whether it was just an accident that the Russians killed their own retreating troops. I read somewhere in that in WWII it was common practice for the Russians to shoot their own troops if they retreated. Perhaps Putin has reinstituted this Soviet practice as part of his effort to recreate the Russian communist empire.



Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Meanwhile, in the real world

Russian Su-34 hits Ukrainian brigade’s deployment point in Kupyansk direction

It is also reported that the crews of Ka-52 and Mi-29 attack helicopters and assault aviation carried out 14 missile strikes on concentrations of manpower, weapons and military hardware of Ukraine’s 14th mechanized brigade

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/worl ... snolimansk

Ukrainian government sacks six deputy defense ministers

Looks like Zelinskee is doing a Stalin purge. Things are not going well in the pedo paradise.
https://tass.com/world/1676233

[Newfie]

New photos confirm sub took direct hit.

Also a fancy missle corvette was damaged in another attack. Perhaps repairable. OTOH it took Russia 13 years to build her new.

I still can not tell about the cranes. They may have survived.

[AgentR11]

New photos confirm sub took direct hit.

Also a fancy missle corvette was damaged in another attack. Perhaps repairable. OTOH it took Russia 13 years to build her new.

Kinda looked like a good hit on the first images I saw, but it wasn't really clear. I know the Eastern wall took a hit and that at least wrecked the tracks the cranes run on. They'd have to repair that first to use the cranes to clear wreckage. Can't half-donkey it either cause it has to support the physical weight they'll want to lift.

Russian shipbuilding is weird, they do produce volume, but it takes them forever to build individual units. They'll lay a keel and that will be the end of that project for years. eg, they have 82 active corvettes, though of course most of them are not in the Black Sea to be worried with. They have and also use a nice batch of them in the Caspian.

[Plantagenet]

Russia actually had another large floating dry dock in the eastern Black Sea. It was big enough to do maintainance on the large ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In fact it the biggest dry dock in the world....big enough to service the Black Sea Fleet's aircraft carrier.

But then five years ago the Russians made a big boo boo and accidentally sank their own giant floating dry dock.

Russia said five years ago that they would salvage their floating dry dock, bring it back up to the surface, and then repair it and return it to use.

But they never did.

The giant Russian dry dock is still sitting there on the bottom of the Black Sea.....right where it has been for the last five years.


Russian aircraft carrier in huge Russian dry dock before the Russians accidentally sank their own dry dock.......five years ago.

<https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-navy-dry-dock-problem-ukraine-/32595547.htmlrussia-navy-dry-dock-problem>

Now another dry dock has been knocked out of commission, this time a land based dry dock in occupied Crimea that was blasted by Ukrainian cruise missiles, heavily damaging two ships that were in the dry docks.

Now Russia is promising to repair this second damaged dry dock and also promising to repair both ships that were hit by missiles in the dry dock.

We'll have to see if Russia actually follows through on this.....or if the Crimean dry dock faces a multi-year wait to get repaired the same way the first damaged Russian dry dock in the black sea has already been waiting five years to be repaired.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

Russia actually had another large floating dry dock in the eastern Black Sea. It was big enough to do maintainance on the large ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In fact it the biggest dry dock in the world....big enough to service the Black Sea Fleet's aircraft carrier.

Err, that dry dock wasn't in the Black Sea...

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... fore-2024/
https://warriormaven.com/sea/russia-s-g ... ier-inside

It was in Roslyakovo, near Murmansk, up there with the icebergs.

Also, Kuznetsov is assigned to the Northern Fleet, not the Black Sea fleet though she has sailed there and the Med before.

Certainly valid points about Russian's talking one game about their inherited Soviet hardware, and performing a different one.

There is a dry dock in Eastern Crimea that is, so far, untouched, its bigger than the one in Sevastopol, but less convenient for military use.

[ralfy]

https://twitter.com/StubbornFacts/statu ... 7881447745

Reminder of the famous US promise of NATO ‘not one inch to the east’ by James Baker to Gorbachev in 1990. It was so tough to keep a promise for 9 whole years that the US then just had to splurge: 3 central Europeans into NATO in 1999 & another 7, incl Baltics, in 2004.

[theluckycountry]

Same old story, wherever the US goes it leaves death and destruction in its wake. It's an industrial war machine.

Libya Dam Disaster Shows Horrific Consequences Of US-NATO Imperialism

“We came, we saw, he died,” Hillary Clinton famously quipped when Muammar Gaddafi, after seven months of U.S. and NATO bombing, was overthrown in 2011 and killed by a mob... But Gaddafi would not be the only one to die. Libya, once the most prosperous and one of the most stable countries in Africa, a country with free healthcare and education, the right for all citizens to a home, subsidized electricity, water and gasoline, along with the lowest infant mortality rate and highest life expectancy on the continent, along with one of the highest literacy rates, swiftly fragmented...

chaos followed Western intervention, Civil society ceased to function. Journalists captured images of migrants from Nigeria, Senegal and Eritrea being beaten and sold as slaves to work in fields or on construction sites. Libya’s infrastructure, including its electrical grids, aquifers, oil fields and dams, fell into disrepair... Western regime-change, carried out in the name of human rights under the doctrine of R2P (Responsibility to Protect), destroyed Libya – as it did Iraq – as a unified and stable nation.

https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/li ... mperialism

Free healthcare and education, the right for all citizens to a home, subsidized electricity, water and gasoline. No wonder the Yanks destroyed it, if word got out how well they lived there it would be quite embarrassing. Libya was ruled by a dictator for sure, but not like the Western dictators who funnel all the wealth to their billionaire friends and leave nothing for the people. Libya had a benign dictator, and lots of oil which the US corporations are stealing.

Same with the ukraine, the US doesn't care one whit for the people there, they just want to control the resources. Watch and see what happens when the war is resolved, the US corporations will be in their carving up as usual and all the western pedophiles will come flooding back. I say this because it's obvious Russia wants no part of the greater ukraine region and never did, they just want the russian speaking populations protected from the degenerates in the West.

[Plantagenet]

There are quite a few news stories out about Russian troops shooting each other and their officers.

This could be a sign of deteriorating Russian morale, or just an overactive propaganda office in Kiev.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

If it were of significant magnitude, the lines would move. They just haven't; so I take most of these stories from both sides with a metric ton of salt.