[Plantagenet]

.....if you wanted to do the math yourself, there was only a 1.4% difference between the scrappage rate of EVs(6.6%) vs ICE(5.2%). So just grab a carbon footprint study and increase the EV's carbon footprint by 1.4%.

Yes, thank you for reposting that data. Of course we discussed this issue earlier.

Using the numbers you post would get you a snapshot of the current carbon differential between the current ICE and EV vehicle fleets, but I want to know what is the actual difference in scrappage rate between ICE and EV vehicle fleets when you control for age, i.e. to really understand and compare the absolute EV scrappage rate with the absolute ICE scrappage rate you have to norm the data to correct for the wildly different average ages of EV vehicles vs. ICE vehicles on the road because the EV fleet is much much much younger than the ICE fleet.

New cars typically get scrapped at lower rates than older cars, because cars tend to wear out as they get older. The fact that the much much younger EV fleet actually has a HIGHER rate of scrappage, even though almost none of them have worn out yet is remarkable and a bad omen as the scrappage rates for EVs will almost certainly go up even higher as the EV fleet ages.

The current average age of the current (mainly ICE) US auto fleet is 12.5 years. I don't know what the average age of EV vehicles on the road is, but since EV sales are rocketing upward I'll bet most of the EVs on the road are probably only 1-3 years old, so I would guess the average age of the EV fleet is only ca. 1-2 years....and yet the fact that as a group the almost new EVs on the road today have a HIGHER scrappage rate then ICE vehicles who average 12.5 years in age is really amazingly bad for the EVs, especially when we were promised that EVs would be more sustainable then ICE vehicles.

Presumably as EV vehicles become more and more common on the roads in the future, their scrappage rate will tend to increase to even HIGHER rates as the EV vehicle fleet gets older, and so the discrepancy with ICE vehicles will presumably get even larger.

What I'm wondering is just how high a rate will EVs be scrapped at when they become comparable in age to the current ICE vehicle population, i.e. what the is ACTUAL different in scrappage rates when you control for age.....


You don't see a whole lot of older EVs on the road, while the average age of ICE vehicles is currently 12.5 years.

Cheers!

[kublikhan]

Yes, thank you for reposting that data. Of course we discussed this issue earlier.

Using the numbers you post would get you a snapshot of the current carbon differential between the current ICE and EV vehicle fleets, but I want to know what is the actual difference in scrappage rate between ICE and EV vehicle fleets when you control for age, i.e. to really understand and compare the absolute EV scrappage rate with the absolute ICE scrappage rate you have to norm the data to correct for the wildly different average ages of EV vehicles vs. ICE vehicles on the road because the EV fleet is much much much younger than the ICE fleet.

New cars typically get scrapped at lower rates than older cars, because cars tend to wear out as they get older. The fact that the much much younger EV fleet actually has a HIGHER rate of scrappage, even though almost none of them have worn out yet is remarkable and a bad omen as the scrappage rates for EVs will almost certainly go up even higher as the EV fleet ages.

The current average age of the current (mainly ICE) US auto fleet is 12.5 years. I don't know what the average age of EV vehicles on the road is, but since EV sales are rocketing upward I'll bet most of the EVs on the road are probably only 1-3 years old, so I would guess the average age of the EV fleet is only ca. 1-2 years....and yet the fact that as a group the almost new EVs on the road today have a HIGHER scrappage rate then ICE vehicles who average 12.5 years in age is really amazingly bad for the EVs, especially when we were promised that EVs would be more sustainable then ICE vehicles.

Presumably as EV vehicles become more and more common on the roads in the future, their scrappage rate will tend to increase to even HIGHER rates as the EV vehicle fleet gets older, and so the discrepancy with ICE vehicles will presumably get even larger.

What I'm wondering is just how high a rate will EVs be scrapped at when they become comparable in age to the current ICE vehicle population, i.e. what the is ACTUAL different in scrappage rates when you control for age.....

The data is already adjusted for age. They were only counting BEVs and ICE sold from 2013 to 2022, just vehicles sold in that decade. They were not fleetwide numbers.

According to S&P Global Mobility analysis, of the nearly 2.3 million BEVs registered in the US from 2013 to 2022, about 2.12 million are still on the road today—about 6.6% have left the fleet. When it comes to other fuel types excluding BEVs, of the roughly 158 million sold in the same timeframe, are around 149.8 million vehicles on the road today—reflecting that 5.2% have left the fleet over the time frame.

S&P Global Mobility: average age of light vehicles in US hits record high 12.5 years

[theluckycountry]

I think Ford got a direct grant of something like 9 billion dollars from the Federal Government just a few weeks ago to build a giant EV battery factory here in the US. If they want to stay on the Federal gravy train then they've got to build EVs.

Personally, I think there is no doubt that the giant government subsidies will succeed in boosting the EV market tremendously.

Unless they just take the corporate welfare and run. Remember solara and the other green-energy darlings?

[theluckycountry]

And the hits just keep coming.

VW Curbs EV Production As EU Demand Falters Amid Gloomier Economic Picture

German newspaper Nordwest-Zeitung reports Volkswagen has temporarily reduced the production of electric vehicles at one of its plants.

Volkswagen's Emden plant in Lower Saxony has reduced production of the electric ID.4 compact SUV and ID.7 sedan for the next two weeks because of weakening sales.
Industry blog Autocar reported Manfred Wulff, head of the works council for the Emden plant, told German Press Agency in an earlier article published by the North West newspaper that while EV production was being reduced, production of combustion-engine models, including the Volkswagen Passat, are unaffected.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vw-cu ... ic-picture
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... production

So demand for conventional cars is strong still...

[Plantagenet]

I think Ford got a direct grant of something like 9 billion dollars from the Federal Government just a few weeks ago to build a giant EV battery factory here in the US. If they want to stay on the Federal gravy train then they've got to build EVs.

Personally, I think there is no doubt that the giant government subsidies will succeed in boosting the EV market tremendously.

Unless they just take the corporate welfare and run. Remember solara and the other green-energy darlings?

Exactly right.

Thats why I'm concerned about EVs being a top-down command economy style mandate from the government. It's no different from a Stalinesque socialist style "Five year plan" where everything is mandated from the top. And it might be OK if the "top" consisted of competent data-driven people, but at least here in the US we've got the corrupt Biden Crime family running things in spite of their history of soliciting bribes from the Chinese, Russians, Ukrainians, etc., combined with a federal bureaucracy who are doing everything they can to cover up for the Bidens' crimes and incompetence.

Stalin's Five Year Plans in the USSR tended to not be entirely successful because they were often stupid ideas to start with and they had no flexibility to deal with problems or changing conditions that came up during the five years of the five year plan. Now we've got a Stalinist socialist style "FIVE YEAR PLAN" to shift to EVs.....and I just don't see this ending well.


Stalin-style FIVE YEAR PLANS to remake the economy usually don't end well.....and I don't see the mandate to switch to EVs succeeding in cutting in CO2 emissions.

I was a thousand percent right eight years ago when I denounced the Paris Climate Accords the day it was signed as a sham and a fraud because all it did was "greenwash" the climate crisis. And sure enough, here we are just 8 years later and CO2 in the atmosphere continues to go up and fires are raging across Canada and heat domes are baking Asia and Europe and the USA and we are looking at all time record global temperatures happening in 2023. Now see the exact same kind of sham, fraudulent greenwashing going on with the FIVE YEAR PLAN to shift everyone to EVs. Rather then reducing CO2 emissions, I predict this will result in even higher CO2 emissions and even faster global warming as the carbon footprint of all those new EVs rolling off the assembly line is going to be much larger then the CO2 emissions we would have had if we had just stuck to ICE vehicles and introduced a carbon tax that would push CO2 emissions down in every sector of the economy. I think TPTB like EVs, because it's essentially business as usual (BAU) only switching out ICE vehicles for EVs. But we're past the point where BAU will get the job done. If we want to stop global warming we needs to do it NOW. That means switching to mass transit, and if you have to have a car then try staying in old cars LONGER.....when you keep driving an old car your carbon emissions are WAY lower than someone who goes out and buys a new car. And building millions of EVs, each one with a huge carbon footprint, is clearly going to push CO2 emissions to even higher levels.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Fireball erupts after two-car crash at intersection

Firefighters were able to extinguish the blaze but one of the cars - a Toyota C-HR Hybrid - appears to be destroyed.

A picture paints a thousand words doesn't it. Both drivers got out safely but what if a couple were trapped in the hybrid? They would be turned into crisps in no time. EV's are the most dangerous things on the road, or parked under houses. I just don't understand why anyone would buy one given the evidence?




https://7news.com.au/news/qld/fireball- ... c-11103085

[davep]

Hi everyone, it's been a while. I bought a 2013 Renault Zoë two years ago that had only done 20,000km. After getting a bonus for scrapping a car it only cost me about 4,500 euros. I bought the battery for €1,700 too.

It's great for local journeys here in the French mountains, but I've still got an old diesel 4x4 for longer journeys and winter snow (which is getting rare).

Good to be back! I've done loads of other stuff such as PV, LiFePO4 storage etc, but I'll probably wait until I'm on my computer rather than my phone to find an appropriate thread.

[AdamB]

Both drivers got out safely but what if a couple were trapped in the hybrid? They would be turned into crisps in no time. EV's are the most dangerous things on the road, or parked under houses. I just don't understand why anyone would buy one given the evidence?

The evidence says that my EV running costs are a fraction of my ICE machines, and EVs burst into flames half as much as an ICE machine.

So the answer is...because the evidence says I'm safer and richer in my EVs than my ICE machines. Duh.

[theluckycountry]

New Study on Electric Car Deaths Shocks the Entire Car Industry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQxY2s-oIak

Amazing new danger revealed
Ticking timebombs

[AdamB]

New Study on Electric Car Deaths Shocks the Entire Car Industry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQxY2s-oIak

Amazing new danger revealed
Ticking timebombs

Expose on Australian educational system, and why folks might confuse "shocking" with "what happens when you throw an EV into a swimming pool" if this is the quality of learning in the country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgMQDyTTiko&t=119s

WARNING TO READERS
From an actual EV owner who also has graduated from high school. DON'T SINK YOUR EV IN WATER AND THINK THAT BAD THIINGS WON'T HAPPEN

[davep]

Li-ion can be pretty dangerous, but LiFePO4 (despite having lower energy density) is almost impossible to set on fire. And there are plenty of other technologies that are maturing. It's not a blanket EV problem, but a risk with dendrites sparking a fire for a specific battery technology (or taking it for a swim...).

[Plantagenet]

A picture paints a thousand words doesn't it. Both drivers got out safely but what if a couple were trapped in the hybrid? They would be turned into crisps in no time. EV's are the most dangerous things on the road, or parked under houses. I just don't understand why anyone would buy one given the evidence?

That's pretty amazing and even scary seeing an ICE vehicle and a hybrid EV (HEV) get in a minor crash, and the ICE vehicle is OK while the HEV explodes into flames.

I'm driving my old ICE camper van right now during the summer here in Alaska, but in the winter I switch to my newer hybrid HEV.

God help me I don't want to get in no crashes no more no way with the HEV.

Of course it helps that in the winter the tourists all leave and the roads are pretty empty here in central Alaska.



Cheers!

[AdamB]

That's pretty amazing and even scary seeing an ICE vehicle and a hybrid EV (HEV) get in a minor crash, and the ICE vehicle is OK while the HEV explodes into flames.

We already know that hybrids burst into flames easier than ICE cars and EVS. Good thing I'm a EV owner and not a hybrid owner like any person scared of fire would certainly avoid if they had done their research! Maybe hybrid owners just can't do research very well?

I'm driving my old ICE camper van right now during the summer here in Alaska, but in the winter I switch to my newer hybrid HEV.

Sounds like your fear of hybrids bursting into flames isn't near as strong as you pretend, risking life, limb and property owning one the way you do?

[theluckycountry]

A picture paints a thousand words doesn't it. Both drivers got out safely but what if a couple were trapped in the hybrid? They would be turned into crisps in no time. EV's are the most dangerous things on the road, or parked under houses. I just don't understand why anyone would buy one given the evidence?

That's pretty amazing and even scary seeing an ICE vehicle and a hybrid EV (HEV) get in a minor crash, and the ICE vehicle is OK while the HEV explodes into flames.

I'm driving my old ICE camper van right now during the summer here in Alaska, but in the winter I switch to my newer hybrid HEV.

God help me I don't want to get in no crashes no more no way with the HEV.

Cheers!

I'd just practice unlocking my seatbelt if I was you, and pray you never get trapped in the car in an accident. I must warn my sister about this, she drives a hybrid too. Bloody Death traps all of them.

[AdamB]

God help me I don't want to get in no crashes no more no way with the HEV.

I'd just practice unlocking my seatbelt if I was you, and pray you never get trapped in the car in an accident. I must warn my sister about this, she drives a hybrid too. Bloody Death traps all of them.

Plants fear is as faux as her climate concerns, but I haven't been able to figure out the why yet. And hybrids certainly are at far higher risk of the catching fire thing.

My solution was easy to make...just get a "safer because it doesn't burst into flames as much as hybrids and ICE machines" EV of course.

[ralfy]

Holding on to old vehicles in many countries has been the default for decades, and the main cause is poverty. They even hold on to surplus parts from other countries.

Meanwhile, manufacturers are driven by profit maximization, which means they are counting on people to do the opposite. Otherwise, their investors will switch to more lucrative endeavors.

[AdamB]

Holding on to old vehicles in many countries has been the default for decades, and the main cause is poverty. They even hold on to surplus parts from other countries.

I hold on cars for decades as well, 2 of them parked out on the street as this very moment. Can't I be doing it because I am frugal, rather than poverty stricken?

Meanwhile, manufacturers are driven by profit maximization, which means they are counting on people to do the opposite. Otherwise, their investors will switch to more lucrative endeavors.

Good thing manufacturers are as predictable as economists claim they are, like Happy McPeaksters.

[theluckycountry]

Consumers Trade Down From Walmart, Dollar Tree Becomes Supermarket For The Working Poor
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dolla ... wn-walmart

As more and more people are driven into poverty the dream of converting the world's fleets to EV becomes more and more remote.

[Shaved Monkey]

China currently controls large parts of the EV and battery supply chain, producing 68 per cent of the world’s cathodes and nearly 90 per cent of its anodes, according to the International Energy Agency.
The OECD estimates that the country alone exported one-third of the world’s lithium ion batteries in 2017, and 38 per cent of them in 2020.

Japan’s Ministry for Economy, Trade and Industry expects domestic lithium-ion battery production capacity to reach 150 GWh a year by 2030, compared with roughly 20 GWh/yr currently.

However, to achieve that goal, Japan needs to secure 100,000 tonnes of lithium a year, 90,000 tonnes of nickel, 150,000 tonnes of graphite, 20,000 tonnes of cobalt, and 20,000 tonnes of manganese

“Japan now considers recycling critical minerals as an important economic issue that is hugely important for economic security,”

https://www.ft.com/content/bfa3dc91-ea1 ... a677bacd13
Every time you make a car and export it you export the battery making it harder to get the feed stock for recycling so Japan is looking at leasing cars rather than selling to keep up the supply of recyclable batteries

[Plantagenet]

China just said it is going to restrict export of certain critical rare earth minerals needed for EVs and high end semiconductors.

apple.news/AWnOM9h8bR1ev9B7V3pr1qg

China said it is restricting export of these key materials in response to the boobs in the Biden administration restricting exports to China.

We'll have to see how this plays out, but potentially China's move could create problematic shortages of key minerals needed for EV construction and chip fabrication in USA and the west.


China just said they are cutting exports of rare earth metals to the USA in response to moves against China by the boobs in the Biden administration

Cheers!