[Cid_Yama]

For all the old people, what was the equivalent of this before the days of internet chat rooms?

We sat in a room with others face to face and actually engaged in conversation. Sometimes it was over a board game. Sometimes it was just enjoying the company of others.

[sparky]

.
"Do you know how stupid you sound with your logical fallacy. Duh, it never happened before, means it will never happen."
..."Only the first sentence was directed at sparky"

I'm at a losse , which one of my many logical fallacies ???
some of the stuff was ( heavy handed ) irony
as for what folks were doing before the internet blogs
personally it was spending long evenings getting wasted with friends re-inventing the world ,

[Cid_Yama]

My deepest apologies, sparky, it was ennui2, not you. I've corrected it.

[Sixstrings]

Back on topic with this thread:

It seems like the basic point that most of you guys have, is that you don't want the West to do any "chess moves" to counter and stand up to Russian "chess moves" because you think we are just escalating, if we do that.

And that "war" is so horrible, and we just can't risk it. (I agree with that, but look deterrence is not about going to war with Russia -- we had half a century of cold war with them and never went to war with them, the way we handled it is what worked -- we could have folded back then too, and that would not have worked, and the world be ruled by the USSR right now).

So -- I get you all's views.

But if you have that, "do nothing at all" view, then you just have to say where you DO draw the line.

Just be clear about your positions, at least.

Like this China hack, last week, that's actually a very major serious big deal thing that has happened. So how would you guys respond to that?

I can see two options:

a) we break from the pacific allies and pull back and be isolationist and hold the line at samoa and Hawaii, and just let whatever happens with china in the pacific, happen.

The hack was retaliation for us getting into the islands dispute. So we're in a cold war slugfest here with them, we try to counter them and then they counter back in some way, and it keeps escalating.

You can either give up and draw the line further back at Hawaii and let the pacific allies do whatever the hell it is they want to do, but without us,

or

b) you have to respond in some way. This hack was too big, this was a major cold war sucker punch, it really does have to be responded to because if you do nothing THEN THE NEXT ONE WILL BE BIGGER.

Same options go for Europe, too. We either have to play the game with Russia a bit, or pull out altogether and let Britain and Sweden and Poland and Germany figure out what they want to do or not do, all on their own.

So -- in Europe, stationing a little bit of gear in east europe is actually a very small and measured and cautious response, I don't see how anyone can say that's over the line, we either have to lead this alliance in Europe or we have to pull out of it and let the euros be on their own, so you all just tell me which you think it should be.

In the pacific -- china hack has not been responded too, but should be. Either pull out of the pacific, or in my opinion a measured response to their escalation would be temporary punitive financial / trade sanctions, OR, stationing some miltiary somewhere that China would not like us to, or, getting more navy out to the south china sea.

Do something, or walk away form the table altogether, you all just tell me which you think it should be.

[Cid_Yama]

we had half a century of cold war with them and never went to war with them, the way we handled it is what worked

You are using the same logical fallacy that ennui2 did.

The way we handled it was through diplomacy. There was no handling them. You still don't get it. The threat is the war itself.

We virtually eliminated that threat through the CFE treaty. Which the US and NATO have subsequently killed.
Also, the ABM treaty, which we broke.

You have no idea how many times and how close we came to nuclear annihilation.

You have become terrified of a bogeyman totally made up by the elite controlled media. Russia doesn't have much of a conventional army anymore. They are incapable of this global conquest myth you have in your head. That also means their only option of defending themselves from you and your rabid friends is nuclear. Unlike the past they have no conventional options anymore.

Frankly, I've lived a full life and have a stocked underground facility that we can live out the rest of our lives in, should that be necessary.

So go ahead, you and your idiot friends can blow it all up playing macho brinksmanship games. I no longer care.
You don't have much of a life to look forward to anyway.

[Keith_McClary]

Now Putin has just sent tanks and more troops into eastern Ukraine for a new offensive.

Yah, the satellite photos are indisputable proof.

[sparky]

.
If a guy was crossing an ocean and a continent to wave a gun on your front yard ,
who do you think is a warmonger ?

protecting micro-states which practice anti Russian apartheid ? a democracy ?
whose total independent existence was 19 years of right wing military dictatorship ,
which wiped out their Jews without much prompting from the Nazis ,
raised three waffen SS divisions and fought to the death as part of SS Nordland ,under Krukenberg in the last German unit making a stand in the ruins of the Reichtag .

[Theedrich]

Let’s face it: America is going the way of the Dodo bird because that’s what the American people want. Wallowing in White Guilt, they elected a black psychopath with a brain the size of a pea. The current POTUS knows only how to play the race card on cowardly Yankee numbskulls. He has no clue about how to deal with iron-fisted men with high intelligence who know that might makes right and that the simpering American Left is ripe for self-destruction. Moving a few pieces of military hardware into Poland, Iraq or southeastern Asia is not going to deter Putin, ISIL or the Red Chinese. And all of Ø’s bribe money is not going to change their strategies, be they military, cyber, financial or narco-criminal. The U.S. masses no longer care about survival. The only ones who do not know this fact are American useful idiots.

[SeaGypsy]

Interesting angle, mass death wish. Reminds me maybe 35+ years ago a survey was published about 'preferred' mode of passing. By far the least preffered was famine, nuclear annihilation ranked as not such a bad option. Who hasn't heard 'I hope I'm standing right under it when it hits'?

On the brown person playing the race card & dupes buying flowery speeches & the most inept foreign service of any US government ever, it looks likely to be a rinse & repeat with Mrs Clinton, utterly untrustworthy dunderhead totally out of her league with Russia, China & the MENA. But she will get in basically for the same reasons as the brown guy.

[GregT]

It seems like the basic point that most of you guys have, is that you don't want the West to do any "chess moves" to counter and stand up to Russian "chess moves" because you think we are just escalating, if we do that.

Who's WE Six? The Western oligarchs want total control over the planet Earth, and their plans don't include the democratic process. They don't give a rat's ass about you. You are nothing more than a number on a ledger sheet, or cannon fodder, if need be.

[AgentR11]

And it begins again.

We didn't re-start the cold war again, Putin did.

This is such an irresponsible attitude that you and a few others have. Your assertion that its important to suggest that we didn't start it. Its completely irrelevant.

The ONLY question that matters, is could we have prevented it. And the answer is absolutely yes. All we had to do is leave Crimea alone; let UA hold their next election, the existing guy was gonna lose; the AA would have been signed, Russia would have had sufficient time to adjust their tariffs between RU/UA, and enough time to get to their announced float to remove the possibility of the Russian economy being annihilated by arbitrage trade through UA. Nothing interesting would have happened. Heck, Russia was beginning to build a substitute base on the Black Sea that would have been ready well before the expiration of the extended lease....

But we couldn't leave things alone. We meddled, we placed Sevastopol at risk; and we placed Russia in a position where they could choose between national death&slavery to the EU, or isolation&independence. They chose very wisely from the table we set. Now, we all have to deal with the consequences of a Russia that chose to be independent.

Russia has chosen to restart the cold war, because it was the least bad option from amongst those the much more powerful economies of the world allowed them to choose from.

So now, instead of a Russia quietly and comfortably supplying the EU with energy, unafraid of NATO invasion plans, and its citizens full of chocolate bars; while China frets and scrimps to try and develop without sufficient domestic energy supplies... Instead, we have a China flush with energy, food, and raw materials at a competitive price; a Russia that will now be sitting at a hair trigger away from full nuclear launch against the US and Europe; and an EU that will be fretting and scrimping to make their domestic energy demand match the available energy supplies at a very NOT competitive price.

So again, sure, blame Russia for starting it. I couldn't care less. Putin couldn't really care less. Its meaningless.
If war breaks out, and we're all burned to ash, being able to blame the Russians won't make us any less dead.

All that said, we are very, very fortunate this all came unglued now, instead of ten years from now. As things sit now, few at the top at NATO have sipped the coolaid that causes people to believe they are immune to a Russian nuclear response to a conventional attack by NATO. They know the technical limits, and they know Russian forces will not hesitate to launch a full strategic strike in response to an attack by NATO. Thus, we'll have some posturing, some moving of equipment, some nuisance patrols and whining; but we will not attack Russia, and consequently, Russia will not launch its nukes. So to a certain extent, I feel moderately secure; even should we choose to fight a bit in Ukraine proper, with real Russian army units and real NATO units; it'll stay in Ukraine, and Russia is unlikely to do anything rash about what happens in combat, in Ukraine. Noting of course, that Crimea is Russia, and an attack on Crimea WILL result in a full nuclear strategic response.

This kind of security is no where near peace; this is the security of the cold war, where we'll spend the next few decades balancing on the edge of a knife hanging over the pit of hell. One wrong play here, or in Russia; and its over. Your kids are dead. My kid is dead. Our country is dead. Their country is dead. Industrial civilization is dead. Modern culture is dead. Advanced art is dead. Science is dead. Those that survive will get to relearn the pleasures of catching bugs for dinner.

But its ok with us. Its Russia's fault.

[Plantagenet]

All we had to do is leave Crimea alone.

The US didn't invade Crimea---Russia did.

But we couldn't leave things alone. We meddled, we placed Sevastopol at risk; and we placed Russia in a position where they could choose between national death&slavery to the EU, or isolation&independence. They chose very wisely from the table we set. Now, we all have to deal with the consequences of a Russia that chose to be independent.

If you think its wise for Russia to invade neighboring countries then you should be delighted with the current situation in Europe.

However....please consider that invasions and wars have a nasty way of spinning out of control, and often bring unforeseen consequences.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

All we had to do is leave Crimea alone.

The US didn't invade Crimea---Russia did.

The result of the coup in Kiev would have resulted in Russia's loss of control of Sevastopol. The maidan folks did sent folks as quickly as they could from Kiev, to secure the place, but they failed.

But we couldn't leave things alone. We meddled, we placed Sevastopol at risk; and we placed Russia in a position where they could choose between national death&slavery to the EU, or isolation&independence. They chose very wisely from the table we set. Now, we all have to deal with the consequences of a Russia that chose to be independent.

If you think its wise for Russia to invade neighboring countries then you should be delighted with the current situation in Europe.

No, Russia is our mortal enemy. We failed to defeat them. Failing to defeat your enemy does not cause one to be delighted with the enemy.

OTOH, I have no attachment to jingoistic narratives or patriotic dances or being the "good guy". I care only about victory. Victory requires honest and specific assessment of facts. They had the choice to capture Crimea, or die as an independent nation state. There were no other possible permutations available. We deluded ourselves into thinking those that were attached to the West and had great wealth, somehow "owned" Putin; and he wouldn't be able to act.

We were wrong.

What counts in Russia is not how wealthy you are, but who can put who in jail. And Putin has more than proved he'll take a billionaire worth many billions of USD and stuff him in the nastiest hellhole of a prison, without any chance of escape or evasion; short of self imposed exile and loss of all Russian assets.

Russia is evil. They are our mortal enemy. And we botched the killing blow.

Now, they aren't dead. They are armed well enough to end our civilization, and we're wandering around desperately pointing a finger yapping, "its the Russians fault!!""

BOO FRIGGIN HOO.

However....please consider that invasions and wars have a nasty way of spinning out of control, and often bring unforeseen consequences.

Yes they do. But considering that the guaranteed outcome for Russia of failing to act, is the same as the maximally bad outcome for acting; the only sane choice for Russia was to take Crimea by force. Failure to do so has a guaranteed end result for Russia of slavery and death.

[Plantagenet]

No, Russia is our mortal enemy. We failed to defeat them.

I'm not quite sure what you are on about here. Are you thinking of the USSR? The USSR was indeed defeated---its gone.

Russia is evil. They are our mortal enemy. And we botched the killing blow.

????

Again, this doesn't make any sense.

the only sane choice for Russia was to take Crimea by force. Failure to do so has a guaranteed end result for Russia of slavery and death.

????

Again, I'm not quite following your logic here.

You seem to be trying to say "If A....then B" but your B doesn't logically follow from your A, and your "A" statement is itself nonsensical.

Cheers!

[ennui2]

Die on your bellies, because you did not choose to rise up. The potential of man does not excuse their failure to attempt to achieve it.

Just so we're on the same page, if war doesn't break out in a year, let's say, will you apologize for getting all hellfire and brimstone on my ass?

[AgentR11]

No, Russia is our mortal enemy. We failed to defeat them.

I'm not quite sure what you are on about here. Are you thinking of the USSR? The USSR was indeed defeated---its gone.

Are you illiterate?

I typed R U S S I A. I do not recalling typing U S S R.

That spells RUSSIA. Mortal enemy. I wrote what I wrote, not what your fantasy world might want to suggest.

[ennui2]

have a stocked underground facility that we can live out the rest of our lives in, should that be necessary.

Sounds like someone wants doomsday to happen to justify having a bunker.

IMHO, this is just Iran Cable Cut Part XIIII.

You can talk about this or that treaty all you want, but the West is not really threatening to invade Russia and any action on Russia's part is due to its own persecution-complex and the need for Putin to shore up his political base by demonizing everyone else besides himself.

[AgentR11]

You can talk about this or that treaty all you want, but the West is not really threatening to invade Russia and any action on Russia's part is due to its own persecution-complex and the need for Putin to shore up his political base by demonizing everyone else besides himself.

That is the one little silver lining in this mess. Since NATO is in fact defensive, and would never initiate a war with Russia, and Russia is physically unable to initiate a serious conventional war with NATO, and gains nothing by initiating a nuclear war with NATO; we're in the basic cold war setup, with some added, but modest instability risk. The overall result is ok-ish; but its certainly been poorly played for the EU, and magnificently played for China. I don't think people quite get the scale of China's victory here; its "Louisiana Purchase" type huge; hard to really grasp or see its significance at the point in time, but in real terms, a truly world-altering scale victory.

Gonna suck for the Climate too.

[ennui2]

China is already one big cancer-cluster. If they want to prance around as the world's last superpower, let them go right ahead. It's not all it's cracked up to be anymore.

[Cid_Yama]

Die on your bellies, because you did not choose to rise up. The potential of man does not excuse their failure to attempt to achieve it.

Just so we're on the same page, if war doesn't break out in a year, let's say, will you apologize for getting all hellfire and brimstone on my ass?

Only the first paragraph was directed at ennui2. The rest was a cathartic moment.

Not that I didn't mean it. I meant every word.

I wasn't judging one individual, I was pronouncing MY judgment on mankind. MY judgment to which I have a right. A right that each of you have, that most of you don't exercise.

How dare me? How dare I have an opinion that is not determined by others. An opinion that may not even be liked by others. Oh, the horror.

I must be one of those awful people you're not supposed to associate with.

That first paragraph.

Do you know how stupid you sound with your logical fallacy. Duh, it never happened before, means it will never happen.

The thing that kept you alive for the last quarter of a century has been the CFE treaty, now trashed by the US and NATO.

My life's work undermined. But that's ok. My life's work allowed MY generation to live out a full life. Good luck to finding your way through the clusterfuck you've created over the last 20 years. Your future is now in YOUR hands.

This world probably doesn't even have a decade left, and most of what will kill you is beyond remedy. But this was one, already avoided, put back on the table.

In what sense is that predicting WWIII in a year? There will be no apology.