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The EU blocks South Stream construction

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT

Unread postby dissident » Sun 21 Jun 2015, 21:51:55

The pipeline deal with Greece is to get the EU end of the link built in time regardless of the demented posturing by Brussels "viceroys". These lunatics were prepared to "call Putin's bluff" and have nothing built by 2017. That would have produced a shock disruption to the EU that the western propaganda factory media would blame on Russia. This deal also transfers control of the pipeline and hub infrastructure to Greece to bypass the BS rules about monopoly ownership that was perpetually used by Brussels against Russia while it exempted every instance of the same in the EU itself. Gas pipelines are not commodity markets. They are contracts.
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Re: THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT

Unread postby dissident » Sun 21 Jun 2015, 21:57:37

@ROCKMAN

Any article that uses the words annexation and Crimea together is brazen propaganda. It is pure revisionism of recent history and whitewashing of Kiev regime atrocities and genocidal plans. The majority of Crimeans listened to the words of the zealots that came to power in a coup in Kiev and decided to save themselves from the fate of so many in Rwanda. The people of Lugansk and Donetsk held referenda as well but were not so lucky because Russia is still too weak. At least 25,000 of them have died at the hands of the butchers in Kiev.

Meanwhile liar Obama yapped about a "UN mediated referendum in Kosovo" that never happened. NATO helped its member Albania annex Kosovo. Then NATO acts as judge, jury and executioner in the case of Ukraine.
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Re: THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 21 Jun 2015, 23:05:53

sub - if the most practical/cbeapest way to pipeline ME NG to the EU what route would be better than going thru Turkey and Greece? And if those two counties and Russia cooperate to manipulate that access? King Midas might own the gold. But what if he can't ship it from the mines to the palace?
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Re: THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT

Unread postby Ulenspiegel » Mon 22 Jun 2015, 00:56:16

dissident wrote:The pipeline deal with Greece is to get the EU end of the link built in time regardless of the demented posturing by Brussels "viceroys". These lunatics were prepared to "call Putin's bluff" and have nothing built by 2017. That would have produced a shock disruption to the EU that the western propaganda factory media would blame on Russia. This deal also transfers control of the pipeline and hub infrastructure to Greece to bypass the BS rules about monopoly ownership that was perpetually used by Brussels against Russia while it exempted every instance of the same in the EU itself. Gas pipelines are not commodity markets. They are contracts.


Is it really so difficult for you to accept reality?

1) We have an excess pipeline capacity, i.e. Northstream plus Ukraine is more than sufficient to cover EU demand.

2) A 100% increase of Northstream allows the shut down of the Ukrainian pipelines, however, we would have excess capacity again.

3) The killing of Southstream by Brussel was possible because of 1+2), this also means that expansion of Northstream and at the same time an additional pipeline in Greece are not essential.

4) If the Russians want a pipline in Greece, they pay allone.

5) The Russians want to sell NG to central Europe, otherwise their commitment (money) to the expansion of Northstream does not make sense.

6) As long as there is the capacity in Ukraine, the bargain power of Russia is quite limited without dramatic increase of European demand, which nobody sees.

7) If the Russians do not want to sell, why should the EU pay for pipelines? :-)

Try to understand that bureaucracies like Brussel are not fast actors , but often not stupid. The strategic situation has been clear for years, and again the Russian position is not that good, only behind your coloured sun glasses.
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Re: THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 22 Jun 2015, 08:51:58

Ulenspiegel wrote:
dissident wrote:The pipeline deal with Greece is to get the EU end of the link built in time regardless of the demented posturing by Brussels "viceroys". These lunatics were prepared to "call Putin's bluff" and have nothing built by 2017. That would have produced a shock disruption to the EU that the western propaganda factory media would blame on Russia. This deal also transfers control of the pipeline and hub infrastructure to Greece to bypass the BS rules about monopoly ownership that was perpetually used by Brussels against Russia while it exempted every instance of the same in the EU itself. Gas pipelines are not commodity markets. They are contracts.


Is it really so difficult for you to accept reality?

1) We have an excess pipeline capacity, i.e. Northstream plus Ukraine is more than sufficient to cover EU demand.

2) A 100% increase of Northstream allows the shut down of the Ukrainian pipelines, however, we would have excess capacity again.

3) The killing of Southstream by Brussel was possible because of 1+2), this also means that expansion of Northstream and at the same time an additional pipeline in Greece are not essential.

4) If the Russians want a pipline in Greece, they pay allone.

5) The Russians want to sell NG to central Europe, otherwise their commitment (money) to the expansion of Northstream does not make sense.

6) As long as there is the capacity in Ukraine, the bargain power of Russia is quite limited without dramatic increase of European demand, which nobody sees.

7) If the Russians do not want to sell, why should the EU pay for pipelines? :-)

Try to understand that bureaucracies like Brussel are not fast actors , but often not stupid. The strategic situation has been clear for years, and again the Russian position is not that good, only behind your coloured sun glasses.


Does Brussels realize Europe is not the only customer for Russian Natural Gas? Does Brussels understand that even as we type back and forth China and Russia are quite busy building Natural Gas pipelines linking their two countries? Does Brussels realize that these pipelines will within a very few years link Russia, Iran and China together in a vast energy trading network that makes Brussels just one customer?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 22 Jun 2015, 09:23:44

Ulenspiegel wrote:Is it really so difficult for you to accept reality?
1) We have an excess pipeline capacity, i.e. Northstream plus Ukraine is more than sufficient to cover EU demand.
2) A 100% increase of Northstream allows the shut down of the Ukrainian pipelines, however, we would have excess capacity again.
3) The killing of Southstream by Brussel was possible because of 1+2), this also means that expansion of Northstream and at the same time an additional pipeline in Greece are not essential.
4) If the Russians want a pipeline in Greece, they pay alone.
5) The Russians want to sell NG to central Europe, otherwise their commitment (money) to the expansion of Northstream does not make sense.
6) As long as there is the capacity in Ukraine, the bargain power of Russia is quite limited without dramatic increase of European demand, which nobody sees.
7) If the Russians do not want to sell, why should the EU pay for pipelines? :-)


Ok, lets talk reality.
1.) Ukraine's capacity along its Russian border will be ZERO in 2019.
2.) Northstream plus expansion is sufficient for EU demand, but allows Germany to exercise monopoly control of the gas.
3.) Essential is irrelevant as an upper desirable limit when you are acting in response to intolerable political situations, re, Ukraine.
4.) I think they've just said, "ok".
5.) Certain true.
6.) This is actually true, which is why I expect the infrastructure on the Russian side of the border to be demolished in 2018, after a heads up so the EU can push their storage capacity to full to head off any disruption.
7.) Russia is paying for some pipelines to the EU; they'll be in the North, and at the Turkey/Greece border; and maybe throughout Greece (though, I'm not convinced on that point). Russia is terminating the operation of its pipelines that flow into Ukraine.

Try to understand that bureaucracies like Brussel are not fast actors , but often not stupid. The strategic situation has been clear for years, and again the Russian position is not that good, only behind your coloured sun glasses.


They aren't stupid; but they seem to have some difficulty thinking outside our own Western mental box. Assuming that what we would do, is the same as what the Russians would do. That is an error.

The Russians are evaluating this combined situation very differently than we are. A lot of it is shared fault though; in drawing up the contracts the way they were, and with Gazprom trying to play the pipeline ownership game inside Europe before the third package, made this whole thing a mess. Russia should be paid for gas, when the gas leaves Russia, metered at those stations on the border. What Europe does with the gas after it leaves Russia should be of no concern to Russia; as they've already been paid, and the gas belongs to Germany/EU/whateverprom. If x-odd mcm are paid for, then x-odd mcm are shipped. If less is paid, then less is shipped. If the EU pays for 10 and needs 13; well... they get 10, and its not Russia's problem.

If yall had done the 3rd package's rules 10-15 years ago; none of this discussion would even be happening; so don't misunderstand; I think its a very well designed regulation; but it does have some costs; one of those costs is that gas will not transfer from Russia to Europe through Ukraine. If Ukraine is to have any gas, they'll be buying it from their European partners. (Excluding Donbass, I have a hunch Russia will keep a trickle running their way, even after 2019. And yes, I expect them to still be shelling each other for amusement in 2019; we'll all die of old age before Russia runs out of tanks, spgs, and shells to retire in Donbass).
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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