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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Jan 2024, 19:15:10

The data in that video is 2 years old. A lot has changed since then. Lithium, cobalt, and nickel prices have crashed. The US discovered a huge lithium deposit. New lithium mining methods are being developed that are more environmentally friendly and more efficient. The lithium battery industry has begun migrating to low cobalt and cobalt free batteries. And EVs made from sodium ion batteries are now rolling off assembly lines.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 09 Jan 2024, 21:45:10

Yes of course, we don't use lithium in batteries any more do we...
How silly of me.


Now i best run out and swap my lipos for these new sodium iron ones. Oh? None in production yet. Still in the testing and "give us investment capital" stage. Never mind. "They'll" sort it out, after all we live in the age of abundance don't we :o

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Oops! I meant this.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Jan 2024, 22:44:07

As usual, you are arguing with a strawman. At no point did I said lithium ion batteries have been supplanted by sodium ion. Infact I said the opposite:

kublikhan wrote:Other issues are more difficult to solve, like the higher difficulty of extinguishing lithium battery fires and the fire reignition problem. Sure, there are solid state batteries and sodium ion batteries where this is less of an issue, but those technologies are either still on the drawing board or are just now entering the EV market and are still a long way from challenging the dominance of lithium ion.


You are also flat out wrong when you said sodium ion batteries are not in production now. They are already on the market:

The global sodium-ion battery market is projected to grow from USD 281 million in 2022 to USD 920 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 16.0% during the forecast period. The high energy efficiency of sodium-ion battery along with its low manufacturing cost in comparison with lithium-ion battery is expected to drive the market during the forecast period.

Sodium-ion battery Market Dynamics
Driver: Low manufacturing cost of sodium-ion battery
Sodium is an abundantly available material as it can be found in large quantities in the earth’s crust and in seawater. The abundance availability of sodium in the earth’s crust along with the overall cost of purification and extraction of sodium is low as compared to of lithium. This lowers the cost of sodium-ion batteries which in turn minimizes the overall cost of end use products such as electric vehicles. Hence, such factors drive the demand for sodium-ion batteries.

Based on end use, energy storage segment is the largest market during the forecast period
The sodium-ion battery market by end use is segmented into consumer electronics, automotive, industrial, energy storage, and others. The energy storage segment accounted for the largest segment in 2021 in terms of value. Growing population has resulted in an increase in demand for electricity majorly in countries such as India and China. This has led to a growth in smart grid where battery energy storage system is installed to control the voltage and frequency deviations. Hence, this is expected to enhance the market for sodium-ion batteries during the forecast period.

Asia Pacific is the largest sodium-ion battery market in terms of value
Asia Pacific accounted for the largest share followed by Europe, in terms of value, in 2021. The major economies of the Asia Pacific region contributing significantly to the growth of the sodium-ion battery market are China, Japan, India, and South Korea. The region has emerged as an important consumer of electric vehicles with the rise in the standard of living of the people and disposable income. This further increases the growth of sodium-ion battery market in Asia Pacific.
Sodium-Ion Battery Market

Sodium-ion batteries are gaining popularity over traditional lithium-ion batteries due to their higher energy efficiency and lower manufacturing costs.

The market segmentation reveals a diverse range of technologies, end-use applications, and geographical regions. The primary regions contributing to market growth include Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe. The market is expected to witness a predominance of stationary energy storage applications across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

The market is positively influenced by the burgeoning demand for electric vehicles, especially in Europe and North America. These regions are also crucial markets for sodium-ion batteries, driven by the increasing need for grid energy storage and governmental support for integrating renewable energy sources.

Sodium Ion Battery Market Drivers and Trends
The sodium-ion battery market is experiencing significant growth, driven by a confluence of factors. Key among them is the global shift towards clean energy, necessitating the demand for efficient and sustainable energy storage solutions. The affordability and long-term storage capabilities of sodium-ion batteries make them particularly appealing in the renewable energy sector. Their high energy efficiency and lower manufacturing costs, attributed to the abundance of sodium compared to lithium, enhance their market appeal. The increasing demand for sodium-ion batteries across various sectors, including stationary energy storage, electric vehicles, and residential, commercial, and industrial applications, further propels market growth.
Sodium Ion Battery Market Overview

The rest of your post is garbage that doesn't even warrant a response.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 10 Jan 2024, 20:13:18

kublikhan wrote:
The rest of your post is garbage that doesn't even warrant a response.


Typical straw man attack, to be expected from you kub. Market value? Sales, no! Just the value of the market. Like the value of pets.com back in 1999. Hardly anything is for sale outside of Alibaba and the 20 million thieves. Take it to the battery technology thread kub and stop cluttering up this one.
the-battery-technology-thread-pt-3-merged-t69420.html
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 10 Jan 2024, 20:20:11

Oh, and to your daydreams about Biden revolutionizing American hi-tech manufacturing with the infrastructure bill (to which the money has already been allocated :lol: )

The White House's Infrastructure Goals Risk Disruption... By The White House https://realclearwire.com/articles/2024 ... 03567.html

Just more bullshit election year promises that will never come to pass. Or else like the affordable care act, that is anything but!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 10 Jan 2024, 21:46:23

theluckycountry wrote:Typical straw man attack, to be expected from you kub. Market value? Sales, no! Just the value of the market. Like the value of pets.com back in 1999. Hardly anything is for sale outside of Alibaba and the 20 million thieves. Take it to the battery technology thread kub and stop cluttering up this one.
You are the one who started posting battery information in this thread. If you don't want to discuss it here don't post it here. I was not posting on the market valuation of the companies making sodium batteries. I was posting the sales values. You can purchase sodium ion batteries from other sources such as: Tycorun, Hakadi, GlobalPower, etc.
Last edited by kublikhan on Wed 10 Jan 2024, 22:29:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 10 Jan 2024, 21:50:19

theluckycountry wrote:Oh, and to your daydreams about Biden revolutionizing American hi-tech manufacturing with the infrastructure bill (to which the money has already been allocated :lol: )
Once again, you are arguing with a strawman. I said no such thing.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 03:15:55

kublikhan wrote:You can purchase sodium ion batteries from other sources such as: SPAM DELETED


One poster has already been banned today for posting such kub. Watch your step ok.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 10:52:26

Just wrapped up CES in las vegas. Korean company showcased a water battery. Water-Zn based. Non flammable, no rare minerals, cheap to produce, excellent low to high temperature performance. Only thing missing was a working prototype. :-D
But interesting nevertheless.

Also some advancements in supercap tech was shown. Maybe lithium batteries are soon a thing of the past.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 16:16:21

Anyway, back on topic.

Hertz Begins Dumping 20,000 EVs In Shift Back To Petrol Cars

In 2021, rental car company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. tapped Tom Brady to promote its massive push to electrify its fleet. At the time, Hertz placed a huge order for 100,000 Tesla Model 3 vehicles. (but never took delivery of them all) Fast forward to late October, when Hertz Chief Executive Stephen Scherr told investors on a third-quarter earnings call that the company would start reducing its EV fleet because of high repair costs compared to the rest of the fleet, which has hurt its bottom line. "EV's will be slower than our prior expectations," he said.

In late October, Scherr told CNBC's Jim Cramer that EVs are seeing more damage than combustion engine cars, and the cost to repair them is much higher.

According to Bloomberg, Hertz began dumping 20,000 EVs on the used car market last month and will be a seller through 2024. The sales are expected to record a non-cash charge in the fourth quarter of $245 million related to incremental net depreciation expense.

"The company expects to reinvest a portion of the proceeds from the sale of EVs into the purchase of internal combustion engine vehicles to meet customer demand," Hertz said, adding, "The company expects this action to better balance supply against expected demand of EVs."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hertz ... etrol-cars

proceeds from the sale of EVs into the purchase of internal combustion engine vehicles to meet customer demand
So, demand has reached a peak, obviously, and now declined.

Peak EV, we have reached it boys and girls, the music has stopped and everyone is scrambling for the chairs, or the exits in this case. As always, the lowly consumer will be the big loser, from the aging ever depreciating golf cart in their driveway to the losses they experience in their pension from the ongoing collapse of the EV makers.

The TSLA share price peak was in Nov 2021 @ $380. Today the price per share is $230 and trending down. A 40% loss in a time of rampant inflation! Oh and Tesla is the bright spot in the EV complex, many have gone to zero. Toyota had a peak in late 2021 too and then declined but it has fully regained the previous high and is trending up up up. The trend is your friend. If you have an EV dump it now before the Hertz flood completely depresses an already depressed market.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 16:49:32

theluckycountry wrote:So, demand has reached a peak, obviously, and now declined.

Peak EV, we have reached it boys and girls, the music has stopped and everyone is scrambling for the chairs, or the exits in this case. As always, the lowly consumer will be the big loser, from the aging ever depreciating golf cart in their driveway to the losses they experience in their pension from the ongoing collapse of the EV makers.
Ummm, in order for us to hit peak EVs, EVs have to, you know, PEAK. As in, their sales are no longer growing. This is not the case. EV sales are hitting new records:

January 10, 2024 - Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) rose 31% in 2023. Sales in December hit a monthly record of 1.5 million units. BEV sales jumped 50% in the U.S. and Canada, and grew 27% and 15% in Europe and China respectively.
Global electric car sales rose 31% in 2023

A record 1.2 million U.S. vehicle buyers chose to go electric last year. EV sales in the fourth quarter set a record for both volume and share.
A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023

Electric vehicle sales are booming in Australia, rising 161 per cent in 2023 compared with the previous year.
Sales of electric vehicles up 161 per cent in Australia in 2023

Here are some things that do not indicate peak EV(obviously):
* EV sales hitting new records year after year
* Someone on the internet said bad things about EVs
* A company sold a bunch of EVs
* You think EVs suck, ergo, they have peaked

IMHO, repeatedly calling peaks, especially when there is no peak, is silly. But if you are really obsessed with peak calling, look no further then the peak in the the sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, which peaked in 2017:

Calling peaks is generally a no-win endeavor. The call will either be correct but seem obvious after the fact, or wrong and cause for years of mockery. But with 2022 data now available, BNEF is confident the global market for internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and is now in structural decline. This may seem self-evident to those watching the market closely, but is likely still jarring for others.

At the 2017 peak, 86 million internal combustion passenger vehicles were sold, including traditional hybrids like the Toyota Prius. Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models were a tiny sliver of the market that year, accounting for just over 1 million vehicles combined. The picture was quite different in 2022. Combustion vehicle sales were down almost 20% from the peak, to 69 million, and plug-in vehicles jumped to 10.4 million.

Even if we add plug-in hybrids to the internal combustion column, the picture doesn’t change much. The market still would have peaked in 2017, and global sales in 2022 would be 72 million, still 16% off the high from five years earlier.
Combustion Car Sales Struggling to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 18:48:32

kublikhan wrote:Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) rose 31% in 2023


You always want to go back in time don't you kub, back to the glory days. Back to old data.

Well we explained last years increases earlier, don't you remember? Sales increased but the rate of sales increase fell, all year. And why did sales increase? Because people always pour into a market at the bubble tops and the huge discounts EV makers were giving, up to 30%, spurred this on. Didn't you learn anything from the dotcom crash, the housing bust, the Great recession?

Look, you're little people kub, your the victim of a concerted marketing campaign that these days even incorporates science articles. You cling to this marketing as proof, but what proof is the CEO of Hertz using kub? He knows the score, he has all the engineers and actuaries feeding him data and he's acted on the information by ditching the EV fleet. Why didn't you comment on that? :roll:
The worlds smartest people don't agree with you, neither do the 99% of American car owners who have thumbed their noses at EV's.

Here, a cornucopian link for you to take the sting out of reality.

By 2030, you probably won’t own a car, but you may get a free trip with your morning coffee. Transport-As-A-Service will use only electric vehicles and will upend two trillion-dollar industries. It’s the death spiral for cars.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/death-spira ... one-93626/

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 18:58:07

US Electric Vehicle Sales Growth Slowed in Latest Quarter
Electric vehicle sales in the US grew by just 1.3% in the final months of 2023, the latest sign that many American drivers remain cautious about making the leap to battery-powered cars.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-electric ... -1.2020217

Jan 8 (Reuters) - Growth in the global electric-vehicle market is set to slow to 27.1% this year as a reduction in state subsidies makes the cars less appealing to buyers, according to research firm Canalys ..."Despite a 20% drop in the ASP (average selling price) of EVs in 2023, insufficient product choices and inconvenient charging experience hampered demand, impacting the market growth of EVs
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 024-01-08/

EV's are only 1% of US cars on the road, pretty lame when you think about it, but now growth in sales is collapsing I can't see it making even 2%. So much for the Great Transition.

Buy Now and Save! Price War Over Electric Cars Erupts in China. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/busi ... rices.html
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 11 Jan 2024, 20:31:49

theluckycountry wrote:You always want to go back in time don't you kub, back to the glory days. Back to old data.
What are you talking about? That data was literally released yesterday. It is the most up to date data available and includes the full 2023 sales figures. You know, 2023, which just ended less than 2 weeks ago? I included the date of the article because I knew you would say something like that. Try again.

theluckycountry wrote:Well we explained last years increases earlier, don't you remember? Sales increased but the rate of sales increase fell, all year. And why did sales increase? Because people always pour into a market at the bubble tops and the huge discounts EV makers were giving, up to 30%, spurred this on. Didn't you learn anything from the dotcom crash, the housing bust, the Great recession?
So if sales go down, it is proof they peaked. If sales go up, it is proof it is a peak as well, because you KNOW it is going down afterwards. Seriously?

theluckycountry wrote:Look, you're little people kub, your the victim of a concerted marketing campaign that these days even incorporates science articles.
Incorrect. I am not citing marketing data. I am citing 3rd party sales figures. Try again.

theluckycountry wrote:You cling to this marketing as proof, but what proof is the CEO of Hertz using kub? He knows the score, he has all the engineers and actuaries feeding him data and he's acted on the information by ditching the EV fleet. Why didn't you comment on that?
Oh you want to talk about Hertz? Ok let's do that. Did you even read the reason Hertz sold? Because sharp EV price falls hurt the resale value of previously sold EVs. That's good news for buyers, bad news for sellers. You would think after all the crying you did about EVs being so expensive you would be celebrating steep falls in price. But since it is you we are talking about, even good news for EVs is bad news.

Jan. 11, 2024 - The rental car company Hertz will be selling about one-third of the electric vehicles in its fleet after they lost value more quickly than expected. The company’s decision to sell 20,000 vehicles, which Mr. Scherr blamed partly on “unprecedented” price cuts by Tesla that undercut the cars’ resale value.

Mr. Scherr implicitly put much of the blame on Tesla, which makes about half of all electric vehicles sold in the United States, for the rental car company’s decision to sell its electric vehicles. Tesla vehicles, which make up the largest share of Hertz’s electric fleet, plunged in value after the carmaker, which Elon Musk runs, cut prices last year by about 30 percent. When the price of new vehicles is drastically lowered, it drives down the value of used cars because buyers can get the newer versions for less.

As a result, Hertz was forced to write down the value of its electric cars more quickly than it had expected, which weighed on profit. Rental companies like Hertz estimate how much their cars will be worth when they eventually sell them, and that estimated decline in value is calculated as a cost. If the decline is more than expected, profit falls.
Hertz Will Shrink Electric Fleet After Being Burned by Tesla’s Price Cuts

theluckycountry wrote:The worlds smartest people don't agree with you, neither do the 99% of American car owners who have thumbed their noses at EV's
You wouldn't know because all you have done is attack strawmen and post BS. And as for the 99% figure, I've explained fleet turnover rates to you before but you consistently ignored it.

theluckycountry wrote:Here, a cornucopian link for you to take the sting out of reality.
You don't have a leg to stand on when talking about reality. You have consistently posted BS that has no basis in reality.

theluckycountry wrote:US Electric Vehicle Sales Growth Slowed in Latest Quarter
Indeed, growth is slowing. But it is still growing. Meanwhile ICE sales peaked years ago.

theluckycountry wrote:EV's are only 1% of US cars on the road, pretty lame when you think about it, but now growth in sales is collapsing I can't see it making even 2%.
Once again, fleet turnover takes a long time, especially when only a fraction of new sales are EVs. That is why you should be looking at sales to see what people who are actually buying a car are doing. And EVs are much higher than 1% of sales.

Sales of EVs are growing. However, as a recent New York Times article points out, it could take years, if not decades, before electrification leads to substantial reductions in emissions.

The problem, ironically, is that automotive technology has become so good. As every long-time auto owner knows, gas-powered cars and trucks have become quite reliable, and this means that fleet turnover is slow. According to economic forecasting firm IHS Markit, the average light-duty vehicle operating in the US today is 12 years old, up from an average age of 9.6 years in 2002. “Engineering quality has gotten significantly better over time, in part because of competition from foreign automakers like Toyota.” Americans buy around 17 million gas-burners every year, and each of those cars and light trucks may be plying US roads for as long as 20 years, after which it’s likely to be shipped off for a second (and dirtier) life in a developing country.

According to IHS Markit’s projections, if EV sales ramp up to 60 percent over the next 30 years, only about 40 percent of cars on the road will be electric in 2050. “There’s an enormous amount of inertia in the system to overcome,” said Abdullah Alarfaj, a graduate student at Carnegie Mellon University who led a recent study that explored ways to speed up the rate of turnover.
Slow fleet turnover means ICE vehicles could be on the roads for decades

theluckycountry wrote:So much for the Great Transition.
The smart people who's actual job it is to track and know this stuff disagree with you:

Electrification shift looks unstoppable despite near-term uncertainty in Europe & US
The past few years have seen many OEMs reaffirming electrification ambitions for the coming five to 15 years. More recently the narrative has shifted, with some automakers highlighting the twin challenges of the electrification transition—scaling output of sellable BEVs and finding willing customers to buy them.

Reports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated, and S&P Global Mobility projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024 – accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12% market share.
S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby careinke » Fri 12 Jan 2024, 00:09:07

Lucky, I think you are wrong on this one as far as growth is concerned, and I think you know it, you just hate admitting it.

My research matches more in line with Kub. I have seen the data, but did not want to spend the time looking it up again, so I just asked my AI, it matches with what I know.

I used his second answer (the most complete) and asked it "what percentage of the cars in the US are electric?" Serendipitously, he answered Kubs points at the same time.

Bard Says:
Determining the exact percentage of electric cars in the US depends on whether you're looking at all registered cars or just new car sales. Here's a breakdown of both:

Percentage of all registered cars:

Low estimate: 0.86%: This figure comes from Exploding Topics and is based on data from 2024. It represents only battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and excludes plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

Higher estimate: 1.2%: This figure comes from the U.S. Department of Energy and considers both BEVs and PHEVs as "electric" in the context of light-duty vehicle registrations. This data is from 2022 and might not reflect the latest trends.

Percentage of new car sales:

Current: 6%: This figure represents combined sales of BEVs and PHEVs in the third quarter of 2023, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

2021: 3%: This was the total share of BEV sales in new car purchases for 2021.

So, depending on the data and interpretation, the percentage of electric cars in the US ranges from 0.86% to 1.2%.

It's important to remember that the electric vehicle market is growing rapidly, and these numbers are likely to increase significantly in the coming years.

Here are some additional points to consider:

The percentage varies significantly across states. California leads the way with around 16% of new car sales being electric in the third quarter of 2023, while other states like North Dakota and Mississippi have adoption rates below 1%.

Luxury car segments tend to have a higher percentage of electric vehicles compared to non-luxury segments.

I hope this information helps! Let me know if you have any other questions.


Tesla is on sale right now due to the FUD coming at him, and like you most people think Tesla is just car company, it's not. We could discuss that in 2025 after I am proven right. :-D

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 12 Jan 2024, 11:25:28

careinke wrote:Lucky, I think you are wrong on this one as far as growth is concerned, and I think you know it, you just hate admitting it.


Well thanks for confirming the 1%, that's an important metric, it shows that the saturation of EV into the US market is, to put it mildly, irrelevant. Hertz is ditching EV's, why inke, why? Can you answer that simple real world question? Just explain that to me, with or without your AI. Explain why Tesla's share price is down 40% when the leading ICE/ gasoline hybrid is stable still.

No one here wants to answer those questions because they can't without admitting the EV dream has hit a brickwall. You know that to be true, you just don't want to admit it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 12 Jan 2024, 12:31:26

I already explained this to you lucky. I will attempt to do so again. When the price of a new vehicle falls, this also affects the used price of said vehicle and causes it to fall as well. If you bought a Tesla just before the steep price cuts, you would probably be pretty angry because not only did you overpay compared to the now much lower price, but the resale value of the Tesla you just bought is worth less now. After all, why pay more for a used car when you can buy a new one cheaper? This hits the wallets of not only the individual, but fleet owners as well. When you have tens of thousands of cars, we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars of losses on your fleet you just took. It is called depreciation.

Some depreciation is already accounted for from businesses like Hertz. After all, just driving a new car off the lot causes a hefty haircut to it's value, not to mention normal wear and tear. But the steep depreciation that occurred last year because of the steep price cuts was outside the norm and caused Hertz to take a bigger depreciation loss than they had accounted for. In addition, fleet purchasers like Hertz normally get discounts when buying cars in bulk. However this was not the case for the Teslas Hertz bought, they had to pay full market price. So the depreciation loss carries extra sting compared to the depreciation they would normally see when selling their old cars from traditional manufacturers. If I was Hertz, I would be pissed at this situation as well. But personally, I would just write off the loss and ride it out. I mean the damage is already done, by selling now you are just converting your paper losses into real losses. Unless Hertz was anticipating more price cuts in the future.

This is the downside of rapidly falling EV prices: accelerated depreciation on the value of used cars. However this is not a 'brickwall' as you put it. Just the opposite infact. The benefits of rapidly falling prices far outweigh the downsides: EVs become more affordable for new car buyers, both to purchase and insure. IE, the 1% of vehicle owners out there who have an EV are getting stung for the benefit of the 99% who have not bought one yet.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 12 Jan 2024, 14:58:16

kublikhan wrote: If I was Hertz, I would be pissed at this situation as well. But personally, I would just write off the loss and ride it out. I mean the damage is already done


Of course, but that's not why they are dumping them, that was never mentioned. What was mentioned...
Hertz Chief Executive Stephen Scherr told investors on a third-quarter earnings call that the company would start reducing its EV fleet because of high repair costs compared to the rest of the fleet, which has hurt its bottom line.


Hertz cars are insured, and insurance companies want an inordinate amount to cover them because even minor accidents can result in the necessity to replace the battery. They are not economically viable in other words. If a consumer wants to pay more to insure one that's their business, but it cuts deeply into the claim they cheaper in the long run than Gas powered cars. Also the tires reportedly wear out 20% faster, the weight.

A lot of these issues are spelt out in the following video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkD-wqfXPmA
A detailed analysis of the insurance issues here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7fGDw7U2Wg

The $7500 tax break? The Biden administration recently passed some legislation that makes it harder to get that credit, and since then only a handful of drivers actually qualify.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 12 Jan 2024, 16:03:36

Hertz CEO said it was for both reasons: depreciation and high repair costs. Some articles only quote one reason or the other but the CEO cited both issues.

Hertz Global is slowing down the pace by which it adds battery electric vehicles to its fleet, executives said on a third-quarter earnings call on Thursday. The rental car company cited Tesla’s price cuts negatively impacting the resale value of its EVs, and higher than expected repair costs for EVs as a reason to slow its pace of electrification.

Hertz is pumping the brakes on plans to electrify more of its rental car fleet after EV repair costs came in higher than the company anticipated, and after Tesla price cuts reduced the resale value of the majority of electric cars in its fleet by about one-third.

Scherr also said, “MSRP declines in EVs over the course of 2023, driven primarily by Tesla, have driven the fair market value of our EVs lower as compared to last year.

Hertz Global Chief Executive Officer Stephen Scherr said Hertz is still “committed” to buying 100,000 cars from Tesla and 175,000 EVs from GM, but is not on target to have EVs represent a quarter of its fleet by the end of 2024 any more as previously hoped.

As Hertz buys up more EVs from GM and other automakers down the line, Scherr said on the company’s Q3 call, the company expects those electric vehicles to have a “lower incidence of damage,” and “a lower cost of parts and labor.”
Hertz pulls back on EV plans citing Tesla price cuts, high repair costs

As for the higher repair costs, those are mostly a Tesla exclusive issue. The repair costs for EVs from traditional manufacturers are approaching parity with ICE cars. The repair costs go like this(highest to lowest): Tesla > Other EVs > New ICE > Old ICE. Repair/insurance costs in general are going up across the board. One reason for this is because of all of the new safety devices cars are coming outfitted with: sensors, cameras, etc. Sure they help reduce accidents, but when an accident does occur all that stuff is more expensive to repair. At first this was mostly an EV issue. However nowadays ICE are being equipped with these features as well so their costs are going up and the repair cost is close to parity between EV and ICE. Other issues raising repair costs across the board are: labor costs going up, supply chain problems, etc.

And even though Tesla also suffers from higher repair costs because of the above issues, Tesla has some other unique issues driving up repair costs. One factor is that Tesla is a less mature company compared to traditional manufacturers. This means a more immature supply chain, smaller stock of repair parts, less data on what parts need to be in stock, etc. This leads to a shortage of repair parts, long repair times, high repair costs, etc. This issue seems like growing pains to me and I would image it will work itself out as Tesla becomes a more mature company over the years and gains more expertise in this area.

However another issue seems more problematic to me. Tesla seems to be favoring manufacturing practices that emphasize cheap production cost at the expense of repairability. Battery packs that are part of the car's structure and glued in, gigacasting, etc. Gigacasting allows Tesla to make cars with less parts and cheaper. However critics argue that gigacast cars are: more difficult and expensive to repair, more difficult to recycle, and more likely to be scrapped in the event of structural damage to the car. Tesla disagrees with this assessment, but it seems likely to me. However for better or worse, it looks like gigacasting is also coming to ICE cars as well. That means if gigacasting really is driving up Tesla repair costs, the difference between Tesla and ICE cars will narrow in the future as ICE faces the same issues.

Collision repair costs for Tesla models remain significantly higher than for combustion vehicles, but electric vehicles without the Tesla logo are near parity with gasoline cars.
Tesla crash repairs costly, but other EVs near parity with gas vehicles

From online forums to casual conversations, Tesla owners are sharing stories of slow, frustrating, high-priced repairs. The experiences have some consumers wondering if they should tap the brakes on electric vehicle purchases, or if crash repair worries are overblown.

Unlike missives from Tesla founder Elon Musk, the answers here are nuanced, data show.
* Tesla collision repairs do cost more on average than fixes for other vehicles, according to data.

* EV repairs are not inherently more expensive. Repairs for EVs from non-Tesla automakers cost only slightly more than those for gas-powered vehicles, and the cost difference has decreased over time.

* The cost of repairs for all vehicles has increased significantly for numerous reasons, and those increases are expected to continue as cars keep getting more high tech.

* Certain factors make Teslas more expensive to repair, and those issues could potentially extend to other new car makers such as Rivian, Lucid and others.

While Tesla owners and insurers are getting hit with bigger repair bills, collision costs are up across the industry. They spiked 8% for the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, according to Mitchell, which provides collision data. The average collision repair bill is now more than $4,700.

The factors driving up costs include: a labor shortage and higher labor rates; parts shortages and higher shipping costs; the increased need to replace instead of repair parts; and a growing use of high-tech safety features. It all adds up to expensive, tricky fixes.

“There are so many things that go into this repair,” said William Parkins, general manager of Metro Auto Rebuild of Seattle and Bellevue. “The technology you know and love takes so much time to diagnose and to fix.”
Spendy and slow Tesla repairs frustrate drivers as automotive tech drives up cost of collisions
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Jan 2024, 00:23:46



Some EVs get repaired after minor accidents at extremely high cost---- and some just get scrapped because the repair bills are too high.

Image
We were promised EVs would be more sustainable.....but in actuality they are almost disposable.....any minor accident that might "scratch" the battery results in the EV being scrapped because of fears by insurance companies that the car will later explode into a lithium fueled fire bomb.....

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