[Outcast_Searcher]

Gold has basically kept up with inflation at todays prices. The S&P, if it just kept up with inflation would be at $588.53. Congrats!

I bought Bitcoin at $400.00 in 2014 with the cumulative inflation rate being 23.6% my BTC would be $494.48. Right now BTC is $19,953.00 and rising. I win!!!

Seems the real loser is the US dollar...

Peace

Get back to us re crypto in a meaningful time frame for investments, like several decades.

Stocks, like the S&P 500, have a total nominal return of about 10 percent compounded annually over the past 90+ years (the index doesn't include dividends), and generally over any 3+ decade timeframe during that. Call it a 6 to 7 percent inflation adjusted compounded annual return. For something so simple and reliable over time, that's MASSIVE. And for those who hate taxes, buying something like a Vanguard S&P 500 index return, it can be VERY tax efficient. For a two-ish percent dividend (close to the long term average) and a moderate tax rate like 25%, that's only about an annual 0.5% ongoing tax payment on the capital to buy and hold it, until it gets sold.

BTC is under a third of where it was at the recent high just 4 months ago. You want a large part of your portfolio in something that volatile and unreliable? You could also "invest" in lottery tickets or going to Vegas.

And yes, clearly sticking fiat in a mattress or a safe deposit box or backyard garden hole is NOT a good investment over any meaningful time-frame. As volatile as it is, at least something like gold will tend to keep up with inflation over the long run, like it has the past several hundred years.

[careinke]

Gold has basically kept up with inflation at todays prices. The S&P, if it just kept up with inflation would be at $588.53. Congrats!

I bought Bitcoin at $400.00 in 2014 with the cumulative inflation rate being 23.6% my BTC would be $494.48. Right now BTC is $19,953.00 and rising. I win!!!

Seems the real loser is the US dollar...

Peace

Get back to us re crypto in a meaningful time frame for investments, like several decades.

Stocks, like the S&P 500, have a total nominal return of about 10 percent compounded annually over the past 90+ years (the index doesn't include dividends), and generally over any 3+ decade timeframe during that. Call it a 6 to 7 percent inflation adjusted compounded annual return. For something so simple and reliable over time, that's MASSIVE. And for those who hate taxes, buying something like a Vanguard S&P 500 index return, it can be VERY tax efficient. For a two-ish percent dividend (close to the long term average) and a moderate tax rate like 25%, that's only about an annual 0.5% ongoing tax payment on the capital to buy and hold it, until it gets sold.

BTC is under a third of where it was at the recent high just 4 months ago. You want a large part of your portfolio in something that volatile and unreliable? You could also "invest" in lottery tickets or going to Vegas.

And yes, clearly sticking fiat in a mattress or a safe deposit box or backyard garden hole is NOT a good investment over any meaningful time-frame. As volatile as it is, at least something like gold will tend to keep up with inflation over the long run, like it has the past several hundred years.

Outcast, I guess I wasn't clear. The S&P stomped a "just keep up with inflation scenario" based on Adams Numbers. Way better than gold.

Still, BTC out performed both in the timeframe I started investing in it. This downturn was expected and welcome. The bottom was reached at 15K and since the start of the year has turned around, this too was expected. 2023, 2024, and 2025 will all be up years, based on the Halving coming in 2024. This is the fourth Halving and so far it is following the script. We will see.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Gold is a hedge, one that belongs in any thinking persons portfolio. It rarely goes to the moon like bitcoin did, like many useless IT stocks did in 1999, but when the dust settles it's always still there, still ahead of inflation. Even during the 1930's after the gold hoarding act was passed and you were only allowed to own 8 ounces it held up. In fact it went up 50% while everything else collapsed in a deflation that lasted until after WWII.

Those 8 ounces btw were never policed. A smart investor, who kept their cash at home and not in an institution may have had 300 ounces and no one would know. I'm sure a lot of people survived the Great Depression quite well by selling a couple of those ounces periodically. Interestingly no one was ever charged under the Hoarding act. The government didn't care about a few rabbits that escaped the hutch because they had the vast majority. All the trusting souls that kept their gold in the system.

So the question one really needs to ask is this. "Is there possibly another massive collapse on the horizon?" Something similar to the Great Depression where all but one asset class tanked? If not then gold investment would be unnecessary.

[AdamB]

Gold is a hedge, one that belongs in any thinking persons portfolio. It rarely goes to the moon like bitcoin did, like many useless IT stocks did in 1999, but when the dust settles it's always still there, still ahead of inflation.

But not ahead of the market, as my personal experience and data previously provided from the early 80's versus now demonstrates. I recommend thinking more, and not just swallowing whatever PM propaganda herdthink that your Chinese masters brainwashed you with. if you can't be an American, then be bold, be brave, be smart, and at least try and act like one.

[Plantagenet]

Silvergate Bank, which dealt in crypto currency, is the latest crypto business closing its doors and going out of business.

silvergate-capital-wind-down-ops-liquidate-bank

They claim to have enough capital to fully reimburse every one of their depositors.

Of course they all say that. FTX was saying that right up to the day they shut they doors and admitted billions were missing.

And now Silvergate bank says they don't have enough money to continue operation, but somehow they are fully capitalized and can reimburse all their depositors?

I want to see how that works out for them.


Bye bye Silvergate bank. Hope none of your executives wind up being indicted like SBF did.....

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

I see that Singapore just added 30% to it's gold holdings, 44 metric tons. Singapore is a total success story that puts all the other Asian nations to shame and I doubt it's making a mistake doing this.

Every time there is a big reset of the world's reserve currency the nations always go back to Gold for the interim period. Soon the $US will lose that status, all the offshore dollars will flood back home, probably causing hyper inflation, and the world will once again go to a gold backed balance of trade system. The simple fact that the paper markets have lost all touch with reality tells me this is getting closer. Gold is certainly a good asset to hold at any time, but especially at times like this.

[AdamB]

Every time there is a big reset of the world's reserve currency the nations always go back to Gold for the interim period. Soon the $US will lose that status, all the offshore dollars will flood back home, probably causing hyper inflation, and the world will once again go to a gold backed balance of trade system.

<yawn>

Yeah, when peak oil can't bring about the end of the world for hysterical senior doomers, they just continue to age poorly and change the mechanism, and fire up the same ol' same ol'. Probably forgot all the other claims they made along the way in their raging jealousy of countries that can create the world's reserve currency (let alone individual Americans ability to launch rockets and people into space) when they can't build a ferris wheel without screwing it up.

[Plantagenet]

As I predicted when I started this thread, insolvency and contagion are now starting to spread through the banking sector, starting with banks who focus on crypto and tech companies. We just had an important regional bank, The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) fail and be taken over by the federal government as tech companies are now faltering and laying off thousands of employees.

This in turn has led to runs on the bank at several other banks with exposure to the tech sector and to the bubble in real estate.

contagion-spreading-broader-banking-system

We'll just have to wait and see if this turns into another crisis that destabilizes the entire US banking sector.....but so far the signs aren't good.

Given the huge amount of federal government deficit spending we we've plunged into over the last two years thanks to the incompetence of the Biden administration and their minions in the D party, we've now got inflation going up, which in turn is driving interest rates up. Biden's new budget proposal would add ANOTHER trillion dollars to the debt to go along with the trillions in new debt he's racked up over the last years. All the debt produces inflation which makes it very difficult for the FED to come to the rescue if the US has another banking crisis----right now the fed is focused on RAISING interest rates. in an attempt to slow Biden's inflation. Simultaneously we've got the HUGE deficits in federal government spending which are now to the point that annual interest payments on the federal debt are now approaching 800 billion dollars a year. Obviously thats just wasted money, which is what Joe Biden does best.

The stage is now set for a total Biden @#$%#-up of the US economy, just as Obama predicted when his elderly former VP Joe Biden became president. Personally, I'm looking for more banks to fail as the economy slows more and contagion spreads farther within the US banking system.


Why is this senile old geezer in charge of the country? Couldn't the Ds find anyone better to nominate? At least they should get a better VP for 2024...how about Fetterman....Fetterman's got plenty of time now that he's living down at the insane asylum. IMHO Fetterman would be the ideal VP for Joe Biden in 2024. Camela need some time off anyway to keep an eye on her husband, who was last seen smooching with Jill Biden.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Ooops! Bitcoin is back under $20k. Collapsing along with the rest of the crypto complex and along with the broader stock markets. Are the shiny digital coins a paper asset, well they sure behave like one, like any other Wall Street manipulated asset class.

[AdamB]

[i]Why is this senile old geezer in charge of the country?

Because the proto-fascists decided to run a seditionist senile old geezer against him?

[Plantagenet]

Ooops! Bitcoin is back under $20k. Collapsing along with the rest of the crypto complex and along with the broader stock markets. Are the shiny digital coins a paper asset, well they sure behave like one, like any other Wall Street manipulated asset class.

When the bubble gets popped, everything starts to deflate.

I'm looking for stocks, real estate, and yes....even Bitcoin.......to head down.

IMHO we're heading towards a banking crisis and a recession, all because of Joe Biden's idiotic economic policies.

Do people realize that Joe Biden has added 10 trillion in debt when you project out all the spending? AND there is no end to it..... Joe Biden's new Federal budget proposal is 30% HIGHER than the budget was in 2019....the year before the pandemic?? All that so-called emergency spending for the pandemic was supposed to be temporary. But in Joe Biden world there is no such thing as cutting spending....for him the emergency spending is just the baseline from which spending (and debt) can only go up forever.

Now THATS funny.

Thanks for my laugh of the day, LUCKY.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

When the bubble gets popped, everything starts to deflate.

Now THATS funny.

Thanks for my laugh of the day, LUCKY.

Cheers!

Your welcome. But just to set the record straight, not everything is deflating. There is one asset that is the inverse of all the paper. It's doing fine.

[AdamB]

But just to set the record straight, not everything is deflating. There is one asset that is the inverse of all the paper. It's doing fine.

Gold down 5.4 % year over year. You really think that a depreciating asset is doing fine? Where did you learn about investing, from the same cereal box that taught Plant about scientifically accurate?

[Plantagenet]

....the same cereal box that ....scientifically accurate?

Your ignorance is showing again.

Your suggestion that cereal boxes are the place to go to get scientifically accurate information makes zero sense.



This thread is for discussing the crisis facing the US banking system is facing and you're posting nonsense about cereal boxes???

Get a grip, dudette. There is some serious stuff happening right now in the real world.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

After the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, contagion is spreading to other regional banks.

The next bank most people think is likely to fail is the First Republic bank...its stock price has already gone into free fall.

first-republic-leads-regional-bank-rout-as-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-raises-fears-about-bond-losses

The problem these banks are facing is that they invested their depositors' money in US government bonds......but now that Joe Biden's policies have triggered off inflation and the FED has raised interest rates to try to ameliorate inflation, the face value of these bonds has fallen dramatically. If there is a run on the bank, and the bank has to sell its bonds to pay off the depositors, they will only get back a fraction of the money they put into the bonds......leaving them short of the money needed to cover withdrawals. Once that happens they have no alternative but to shut their doors and declare themselves insolvent.

Of course this is the sort of thing that bank regulators are supposed to watch out for and then take steps to prevent this from happening, but since the Biden administration is incompetent there seems to have been minimal regulatory oversight of these smaller banks and several more of them appear to be at risk of going bankrupt. No doubt now the Biden people are going over multiple US bank's financial statements to see what other banks are at risk of being wiped out as a consequence of Biden's inflation and the resultant Fed interest hikes.


Thanks to Biden's inflation and the FED's concomitant increases in interest rates, the bonds that US banks buy have lost a big part of their value, and the US banking system now looks like a house of cards....

Cheers!

[AdamB]

Your ignorance is showing again.
Your suggestion that cereal boxes are the place to go to get scientifically accurate information makes zero sense.

Your suggestion that you post scientifically accurate information makes zero sense. Would you like to put a name on the third rate college that taught you "scientifically accurate" means you can't even read your own quoted references? Can you even write a footnote on your own?

[Plantagenet]

Your suggestion that you post scientifically accurate information makes zero sense.

Pearls before swine.



Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Your suggestion that you post scientifically accurate information makes zero sense.

Pearls before swine.

Yes, I am afraid that for many the collapse of our western culture is just too much to assimilate and they are retreating into fantasy worlds.

[Plantagenet]

"Pearls before Swine" is a traditional saying that is based on something Jesus is quoted as saying in the bible.

Jesus said: "Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet

In the folk saying "Pearls before Swine" the reference to "swine" (i.e. pigs) is used as a metaphor for ignorant people who have no comprehension of what they are hearing.

It seemed quite appropriate in the context I used it above.

Cheers!

[Peak_Yeast]

Re: Bidens budget increased by 30%

To be fair that is probably just keeping a status quo in real purchasing power - perhaps even less depending on the nature of your expenses. Copper is up 50-100% depending on the exact timing for example. Timber, gypsum and many others more or less the same.