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Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 21:25:15

Tanada wrote:We are now late enough in the season that the trend is unmistakably back upward. Scanning through the years it is clear that 2019 as essentially the same as 2007. 2012 remains the record low year, now seven years in the past. This is absolutely not the way I expected this decade to turn out, but I am thankful for the reprieve however long it lasts.


Same here T, we should be grateful for every year of sea ice on top of this world, Amen and inchallah, Godwilling.

Pigs could even become the default meat source, over cattle. Of course, that would only be after a transition to a warmer, and wetter, northern plains


EG, thanks for the ideas, drive to adapt, I think humanity will not give up and die at the drop of a hat but agriculture is facing a hard time already while we still have a more or less normal arctic.
I do not think pigs will enter the food chain in Morocco though.......

Last week I travelled the Rif, mix of small medieval type farming with modern large scale agriculture production.
For centuries, millennia even I suppose, olive trees together with other fruit bearing trees have stood their ground, grazed by sheep, goats, mules and horses, grains, beans and chicken.
All depending on the winter rains and a limit to how many people can live on the available resources.
The green leaf, the weed crop uses a lot of water, I'll look into it.

Abdeslam, a family member, rich farmer with a Peterson machine, has 3000 olive trees and no harvest this year for lack of water.
Trucking water in is no option, that would be possible but financially unwise unless oliveoil gets to double the price it is now, around 50 Dirham per litre.
He has already 3 wells but is digging a 4th deeper.
If the rains do not return to normal, he has to give up the farm.

Nordin, another family member but small scale farmer on a hill has some more water but can barely make it, keep BAU.
Thing is the system is indeed already at a breaking point without CC pushing it over the brink of disaster.
Last edited by Whitefang on Thu 10 Oct 2019, 21:34:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Nefarious » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 21:28:42

Tanada wrote:We are now late enough in the season that the trend is unmistakably back upward. Scanning through the years it is clear that 2019 as essentially the same as 2007. 2012 remains the record low year, now seven years in the past. This is absolutely not the way I expected this decade to turn out, but I am thankful for the reprieve however long it lasts.

Careful talk like that will get you labelled a denier. :lol:
Welcome to the grand solar minimum. :razz: The weather and climate are about to get a lot more chaotic and it's just the beginning. 8O
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 21:41:22

Yeah, and the records set by super-El-Nino year 1998 weren't broken for another decade, but that also had absolutely nothing to do with the viability of gw theory, despite what denialists (which T is not!) tried to make of it.

Any year now could see a confluence of factors--that happened to occur in the Arctic in 2012 and has not happened since--that would plunge Arctic sea ice numbers down into the area most regular observers would consider a Blue Ocean Event.

I, too, am a bit surprised and relieved that we have not yet seen such a convergence of factors. But it could still happen in any given year, as far as I can tell.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 13:19:32

I share the mutual surprise and relief that the arctic sea ice has not diminished more quickly.

But...what has become the perennial worry - the stage may be in the process of being set for a more significant loss next year:

Arctic sea ice extent was 4.88 million km² on October 13, 2019, the lowest on record for the time of year.



http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/


Image


see images on the link above:
air temperatures are high over parts of the Arctic Ocean where there is no sea ice... Anomalies look set to get stronger, as illustrated by the forecast for October 24, 2019, in the right panel.



another Graph:
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... evious.png

Image

Projected:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php


Image
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 16:50:05

My fear is a weak winter setting up weak and low area of Arctic ice followed by a warm and storm tossed Arctic summer. Based on 2012 and the last half decade of gradual warming of Arctic near surface waters and that could tip things over.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 16 Oct 2019, 14:22:02

I share that fear.

And if a late/slow freeze up results in the the polar vortex weakening further, spilling its arctic air to the south even more than it has been in recent winters, it of course just compounds the issue.

Hm. That thought brought this poem to mind:


The Second Coming
BY WILLIAM BUTLER YEATS

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Climate Chaos is Coming
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 18 Oct 2019, 09:21:52

It looks like a continuation of what happened at this time last year, only worse. Sea ice buildup is not happening at a rate that will ensure the sort of maximum most disinterested people expect. But, unless the maximum we get is very much lower than the average, those people still won't accept it. We will need them to, or the tax money that will have to be spent won't possibly get approved. The important issue, in my opinion, will be whether to try and save the old order, which I think is impossible, or to try to adapt at a pace that will save the best aspects of that order. Soon, the interests which have been actively funding denial, and fomenting the divisiveness in our societies, will converge in order to prevent the taxation. When we see the marketing before us, trying to convince us that "backyard chickens" can save us, we should ask who is behind it. Is it the way, or is it the cheapest way?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby waterpowerman1 » Fri 18 Oct 2019, 15:01:11

Here in Canada we have an election. The Liberals have taken baby steps trying to do the minimum. -Things like a carbon tax. The Conservatives vow to back track those baby steps. The Greens are a voice in the wilderness with no hope of any power. So at best we'll see more inadequate baby steps or going backwards. The situation is similar in other countries with the US leading the charge backwards. We're doing it to ourselves.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby careinke » Sat 19 Oct 2019, 00:59:13

waterpowerman1 wrote:Here in Canada we have an election. The Liberals have taken baby steps trying to do the minimum. -Things like a carbon tax. The Conservatives vow to back track those baby steps. The Greens are a voice in the wilderness with no hope of any power. So at best we'll see more inadequate baby steps or going backwards. The situation is similar in other countries with the US leading the charge backwards. We're doing it to ourselves.


To be expected from a country that lets their cities dump raw sewage into the Straights of Juan de Fuca.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sat 19 Oct 2019, 07:23:42

careinke wrote:
waterpowerman1 wrote:Here in Canada we have an election. The Liberals have taken baby steps trying to do the minimum. -Things like a carbon tax. The Conservatives vow to back track those baby steps. The Greens are a voice in the wilderness with no hope of any power. So at best we'll see more inadequate baby steps or going backwards. The situation is similar in other countries with the US leading the charge backwards. We're doing it to ourselves.


To be expected from a country that lets their cities dump raw sewage into the Straights of Juan de Fuca.


Victoria is two years into a project to build a tertiary sewage treatment plant. I don't think it is accurate to say they are dumping raw sewage as all solid material is screened out. There doesn't appear to be any scientific reason for Victoria to stop what they are doing -- the conditions of where they dump effluent are pretty unique. The decision to build a sewage treatment plant is purely political. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/le ... ne-alberta
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